How is it December and Week 13 already? More importantly, why I haven’t I won more $?

I actually have a theory about the second question. A couple years ago I read some research about the fluctuation, or potential fluctuation, of NFL scoring and how it could potentially impact fantasy football scoring. In recent years, NFL scoring has been up and as such, QB scoring specifically, has been on the rise. So far this year, less points are generally being scored, so what is that doing to QBs? The introduction of the mobile QB, often attributed to Michael Vick, has become a mainstay on NFL teams with the Baltimore Ravens specifically being a team to draft and craft and entire offensive scheme around one type of QB. QBs like Mahomes, Kyler Murray, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Deshaun Watson may he rest in peace, Cam Newton, and Russell Wilson have become mainstays on NFL teams and are considered, along with Jackson, dual threat QBs. Even other QBs like Ryan Fitzpatrick, Taylor Heinicke, Daniel Jones, Sam Darnold, and even Karen Fraudgers have shown the ability to effectively run when the time is necessary. Now the NFL, like fashion, music, and other forms of art, has trends. Here are the top 10 QBs and their averages over the last 3 seasons:

2020

Average = 24.39

2019

Average = 21.49

2018

Average = 21.08

I apologize for the smallness of the shots, but over the last 3 seasons, the QB spot, as a position, has produced more and more fantasy points. In fact, no QB outside the top 10 averaged less than 20 fantasy points per game in 2020.

Let’s look at the QB position for the first 8 weeks of 2021:

Average: 23.51

And here is weeks 8 – 12 of 2021

Average (excluding Geno Smith and Davis Mills as they are outliers): 19.88

The point of the exercise? Nothing lasts forever. I contend that because QB scoring has been on the rise, many will simply believe that it will continue to do so. Essentially speaking, markets adjust over time. The market adjustment that I believe is happening right now is that defenses and coaches are getting wise to the type of offenses that are being run, and as such, QB scoring will begin to decline. We could be at the beginning of a market adjustment that begins to send QB scoring in the opposite direction. If that is true, then I plan to use that potential truth as early as this week. In fact, I already have. Taysom Hill started for the Saints on Thursday night. He was priced at $5000 on Draftkings on the Thursday – Monday slate of games. I needed to take advantage of that so I currently have a couple live gpp lineups that feature him going into the weekend. While watching the game was nothing but a ticket to increased blood pressure as Taysom had 4 INTs, he did end up with 27.66 DK points, and I’m sitting comfortably headed into the weekend.

The simple point is this: if QB scoring is trending low, then paying up for high salary QBs does not make much sense. The lower the QB scoring, the less of a difference between an 8K QB and a 5K one. (Of course, the counter argument to all this is that this is just a blip, and QB scoring will begin to trend back up in the coming weeks.)

I will be doing a combo of game stacking and playing lineups with low priced QBs and one-offs in position of potential ceiling games. The obvious game stack environments are Tampa vs Atlanta (50.5 o/u) and/or Cincinnati vs LAC (50.5 o/u), and as such I expect them to carry ownership.

Stacks

Matt Stafford – $7300  1.2x

This game stack will not garner much of my attention based on the above data. Additionally, I am concerned about Jacksonville even making this a game. That said, Cooper Kupp just can’t be ignored, especially against Jacksonville. He will likely go up against CB Ford who is allowing a 77% catch rate. I really don’t have to say more other than at least 1 score and over 100 yards will be necessary to find him in a GPP winning lineup. Van Jefferson is priced lower than OBJ for some reason. Van Jefferson has been in this offense for a significantly longer period of time, and over the long run I expect Van Jefferson to be the beneficiary of Bobby Trees’s season ending injury. The run back in such a stack…well, your guess is as good as mine, but O’Shaughnessy is now TE1 with Dan Arnold hitting the IR and he’s only $2600. You could also go with Shenault or Jones.

Tom Brady – $7200  1x

Despite my belief about QBs, I think it’s foolhardy to leave out Brady stacks. I do contend that Tom is still record chasing, and last time these teams met when Tampa had its fully armed and operational battle station, Brady had 5 TD passes. I think every pass catcher is in play, but Godwin and Gronk will be largely running slot/check-down routes against CBs Grant and Hall this Sunday. Over the last few weeks they’ve combined to allow 21 of 26 passes thrown their way to be completed. I will say this, Brady has been much better at home than on the road this year, so tread lightly. A potential run back here is Cordarelle Patterson.

Justin Herbert – $6700  1.25x / Joe Burrow – $6300  1.25x

Looking at the graphic above about the last 4 weeks, Herbert comes in as the highest scoring QB. The Chargers continue to attempt 40 passes every week so the volume should not be ignored. Pairing him with two of his pass catchers is possible. Ekeler, Allen, Williams, and possibly even Cook could work. On the other side I am more interested in Mixon, but Chase, Higgins and Uzomah are possible as well, and you could stack any of them with Burrow if you wanted.

My RB Pool

Jonathan Taylor – $9200  1x

At this price you are going to need over 100 yards and at least one score, but that’s certainly possible against the Houston Texans. I wouldn’t expect anything like a 5 TD performance again, but a DK score in the mid to high 20s may just be enough to take down a GPP. Like Jacksonville, I wonder about the Texans ability to make this a game, and as such, Taylor could get benched later in the game. Even if that happens though, I’m willing to bet that he had something to do with the Colts being up enough to rest to him.

Joe Mixon – $8100  1.2x

Almost on a weekly basis Mixon is low owned. Over his last 4 games, Mixon has averaged 28.93 fantasy points. Meanwhile in recent weeks the Chargers have allowed 137 yards to MG3 and Javonte Williams, 103 yards to Dal Cook and Alexander Mattison, 176 yards to Jalen Hurts, Jordan Howard and Boston Scott, and 142 yards to Damien Harris, Brandon Bolden and Rhamondre Stevenson. Considering Mixon’s solidified role in this offense as well as his participation in the passing game, sign me the fuck up.

Alexander Mattison – $7600  1.3x

At least DK priced him up this week, but they probably didn’t price him up high enough. The Lions are terrible…terrible. Their run D is bad, they can’t tackle well. Everyone and their mother knows this is a good play. I’m honestly not sure what his ownership will be like this week, but the matchup is fantastic. Over 100 yards and at least one TD is seriously in play.

Elijah Mitchell – $6000  1.3x

The 49ers are second in the league in running plays per game. Mitchell has had 27 carries in back-to-back games he has played and has begun to be featured in the passing attack. The San Fran coaches clearly like this guy over Jeff Wilson, and now that Deebo is out, he will not vulture touches (and TDs) from Mitchell.

James Conner – $5900  1.3x

With Chase Edmonds out, Conner has a 74% opportunity share, which is top five in the league. He also saw 85% of the snaps in the Cardinals’ last game. The Bears are banged up on their offensive line, and as such, the Cards are projected to have a significant run blocking advantage on Sunday.

Antonio Gibson – $5700  1.4x

JD McKissic is likely to miss this week with a concussion. The Raiders are not good vs the run, 8th most rushing yards against, 7th most TDs to RBs, 6th highest rate of 20+ yards allowed on running plays, and 5th most fantasy points surrendered to RBs. The WFT O-line is PFF’s 5th best running blocking line. With McKissic not there to vulture, give me some Gibson please.

David Montgomery – $5600  1.15x

Monty disappointed on Turkey Day at massive ownership. Now he gets Pro Football Focus’s 2nd worst run defense in the league. I find that bit interesting as the Arizona run defense ranks are not as low as PFF’s. It should be a nice cold one on Soldier Field this Sunday, so give me a low owned Montgomery who has a near 80% snap share and was the RB in the NFL who ran the most routes in Week 12.

Jamaal Williams – $5400  1.35x

This is contingent on Swift being out. While the Vikings run defense has been getting better, they still are not a particularly good run D. Williams has shown the ability to be an every down back, at least in the short term. I have a feeling Williams is going to carry some ownership as this is a nice price tag. In that event, I’ll probably just pay the extra $200 and move up to get Monty. Additionally, I worry that both Jefferson and Igwebuike will get some run.

One – Offs

Justin Jefferson – $8200  1.15x

In week 5 Jefferson had 7 grabs for 124 yards on 8 targets vs these Lions. That was mostly against CB Oruwariye who is ranked 98th (out of 118) per Pro Football Focus. Jefferson has played the Lions three times in his career and has had continued success. I believe that the Vikings employ a heavy ground game (Mattison), but Jefferson, who has a 26% target share and averages 9 targets a game will likely show up at some point.

Diontae Johnson – $6800  1.4x

If I were playing cash games this week, DJ would likely be the first player I lock in as he has arguably the safest floor in the league. Since JuJu went down, DJ has received double digit targets in every game except one. The Ravens are allowing the most fantasy points to outside receivers over the past month. Johnson, Pitt’s top outside WR, is in line to put up similar numbers as these top outside WRs: Landry (6-111-0), Mooney (5-121-1), and Chase (8-201-1) have all posted those stats recently vs the Ravens.

Marquise Brown – $6500  1.45x

Hollywood will be going against CB Pierre, who is backing up CB Haden this week. Pierre has given up TDs in back-to-back games. Hollywood enters this matchup averaging close to 11 targets a game over his last 6 as well as 17.2 fantasy points per game.

Jaylen Waddle – $6400  1.4x

I don’t like to chase, but the Gmen are giving up the 3rd most fantasy points to WRs this season. Over the last month, Waddle has a 25% target share and he has 77 catches on the season. Waddle will mostly spend his day against slot CB Holmes (I suppose it is possible that Bradberry is assigned to him but he stays on the outside) who is allowing a 70% catch rate. Other receivers like Kupp (9-130-2), Tyreek Hill (12-94-1), Godwin (6-65-1), and Renfrow (7-49-1) have had good days vs this defense.

Hunter Renfrow – $5800  1.5x

For a few years now, I have been a big fan of the WFT defense. They have drafted and developed well, but early returns this season have not been good. Over the last month or so though, that defense has been coming together and getting better. So why do I like Renfrow? I think the WFT defense gets pressure on Carr, which will force him to dump off quickly to his favorite short yardage receiver.

Michael Pittman Jr. – $5700  1.45x

I fully believe this will be a Taylor game, but Pittman’s matchup should not be overlooked. He’ll face CBs Mitchell and King who have combined to allow the 3rd most fantasy points per game to outside WRs this season. Mitchell has allowed TDs in 3 of the last 4 games he’s played and King is allowing 78% of the passes thrown his way to be caught. I expect Taylor to be significantly more owned than Pittman, so the allure for GPP is there.

Darnell Mooney – $5600  1.45x

With ARob in or out, and btw he is out again, Mooney is now the WR1 in this offense. The matchup vs the Cardinals is not all that good here, but Mooney is practically the only one catching the ball for the Bears. Kmet has come on a bit since Dalton took over under center, and Graham showed a pulse with some recent redzone targets, but the volume belongs to Mooney. I expect that Dalton will struggle in this matchup, and the Bears would be wise to employ the ground game, but double digit targets, over 5 catches and maybe a TD would not surprise me. I wouldn’t start Monty and Mooney in the same lineup.

Tua Tagovailoa – $5500  1.5x

He’ll be like 1 – 3% owned. The Gmen use the 4th highest rate of cover 3, which Tua does well with, and the 4th lowest rate of cover 1, which gives Tua problems. I’m not expecting the world here, but a 20 point DK performance would be great at this price if there is no high priced QB who goes off.

A.J. Green – $5000  1.65x

Green will be low owned, especially if DHop returns. If DHop is back, then Green will get CB Burns who was called in to replace a struggling Vildor last week, and Burns allowed 3 of 5 targets against to be completed for 55 yards and a TD. Green is leading this team in deep receptions (targets that exceed 20 yards). What we will need here is one long TD out of Green, and that’s honestly probably his ceiling, but at 5K you could worse. Certainly not a cash play, but I am not playing cash this week.

Ben Roethlisberger – $5000  1.55x

20 DK points is in play. We will likely need a minimum of 2 TD here, but that has been doable vs the Ravens. Again, this is only a play that is contingent on none of the top QBs blowing up as Roethlisomething’s ceiling is not that high. In this scenario I would pair him with one, maybe two of DJ, Claypool and Freiermuth. DJ could have 10 grabs for over 100 yards and Moose could have 2 TDs.

Josh Reynolds – $3400  1.75x

This is one of my deep punt plays of the week. Reynolds and Goff have familiarity with one another and that showed on Turkey day when Reynolds caught a deep TD pass. This week they get the crap secondary of the Vikings. While it’s still the Lions, I believe in the talent that Reynolds possesses, and I believe CB Breeland and the Vikings are beatable.

Foster Moreau – $2700  1.75x

This is probably one of the more chalky $2700 TEs in awhile. With Waller out, many are gravitating toward the assumed incumbent of his targets and opportunities. I’m hesitant about ownership and ceiling. 60 yards and a TD has been Moreau’s ceiling, which at this price is fine, but other TEs do have a higher ceiling.

DST

Los Angeles Rams – $4000

Don’t see a world where I get here, but it’s the Jaguars.

Indianapolis Colts – $3700

I can totally see a scenario where the Colts defense has two defensive TDs and ruins my Taylor shares.

Philadelphia Eagles – $3600

J.E.T.S.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $3500

The Bucs D has been scoring fantasy points since their bye week. Their defensive line has a big advantage over the Falcons offensive line this week.

Washington Football Team – $2500

My primary choice at D this week. As I noted in the bit about Renfrow, I have liked this defensive unit for some time. They brought in some help for their secondary this season but it has not manifested on the field until recently as they have been playing much better.  Perhaps they just needed some time. In any event, the Football Team should be able to get to the QB and make life difficult for the Raiders on Sunday.

Just for transparency, I currently have the New England Patriots – $3100 in one of my Taysom Hill Thursday – Monday lineups. I can see them slowing down the Bills and I don’t expect them to carry ownership.

Where I’m at

If you pay down at QB, use WFT, and punt at one more position, then you can easily squeeze in the top RBs.

One of my 5K Taysom Hill lineups will be paired with 3 of Taylor, Mixon, Mattison, and Mitchell. One other will pay down a little at RB and work in some higher priced WR options.

I will continue to use Brady stacks in some lineups.

I will have a game stack or two around Cincy and LAC.