The Commanders were…..not good last season. They were coming off late-stage Snyderism with the ownership change only going through in July and were probably kind of lucky to get to 4 wins. The great hope going into this season is Jayden Daniels. Washington drafting a slender, dual-threat QB with the second overall pick (in an election year no less!) is reminiscent of the team drafting RG3 in 2012, and while the team is doing a fine job managing things and keeping the pressure off, the reminders of RG3 are a BIG DEAL.
RG3 was amazing as a rookie. The team was fun to watch for both the first and the last time since Snyder started polluting the team in ‘99. He earned more money than any other rookie QB before playing a snap from endorsements. You could buy his jersey in gas stations. Obama and Romney took a break from the campaign trail to talk about how awesome he was. He won Rookie of the Year and had the best QBR and TD/Interception ratio of any rookie QB ever. The team ended the season with a 7-game winning streak capped by a win over Dallas that was flexed into prime time for the division win just a year after going 5-11.
As a reminder, here’s a highlight reel from RG3s rookie year. You have to watch it on YouTube because NFL, but it’s worth it. Check it out at 13:12. I watched that play in Honolulu. There were a bunch of Patriots’ fans at the bar and the Pats turned the ball over at exactly the same moment that RG3 just casually ducks through the pass rush and rips off a 76 yard rushing TD so I was the only one cheering.
When the team eventually destroyed RG3 they also destroyed my NFL fandom. This is all a long-winded way to say that if Jayden Daniels can bring even a fraction of the excitement and fun of RG3’s rookie season to the 2024 Commies I will be absolutely thrilled. He definitely has the potential, seems like a legit nice dude, and has great family support. Do yourself a favor and watch this delightful video his father, Javon, posted of Jayden playing Pop Warner.
If he can stay relatively healthy and bring that to more than one season it’s possible that we’ll all enjoy watching Washington play…..in 2025. In 2012 RG3 made lemonade out of lemons, while in 2024 Jayden is going to have to make lemonade out of expired airline peanuts and Fedex Field sewage.
Coaching/Ownership
2012 was the elder Shanny’s second year as head coach. He had already had a chance to start building the team he wanted with the 2011 draft and he had his coaching staff and schemes in place. Plus, as we’ve heard multiple times over the past few years, many members of that coaching staff went on to bigger and better things within the NFL, so it’s probably fair to say that the coaching on offer was pretty good.
Dan Quinn is entering his first year as head coach with Washington, and this is also the first year that the new ownership was in place for the draft. Looking at the 2023 draft class you could easily mistake me for someone from New Orleans cuz I’m going WHO DAT?? I don’t think they drafted anyone who played in more than 7 games. Only 2 of them made the roster for this year. They’re really only in their first year of rebuilding and it’s unlikely they have a bunch of budding coaching geniuses on staff this time.
Defense
In 2011, the Washington defense ranked 21st, which isn’t stellar, but it was probably mostly DeAngelo Hall’s fault. They still had stalwart London Fletcher, and in his rookie year first round draft pick Ryan Kerrigan got 7.5 sacks and an interception. The 2023 Washington defense was dead last, and it wasn’t even close. They gave up 518 points and 6612 yards compared to Arizona’s (31st) 455 points and 6047 yards. You may remember that their two defensive players of note, Chase Young and Montez Sweat, were traded off for a slew of draft picks to give the team to essentially start from scratch on defense. The defense should improve this year, but it’s pretty improbable to think they’re gonna be giving the offense much help. I know everyone has already drafted, so it’s a bit late for fantasy advice, but if you actually drafted the Washington defense I think you’re probably beyond help and you’re officially invited to join everyone’s money leagues!
Offense
If I recall correctly, the main issue with the O-line in 2011 was weakness at left guard which they addressed for 2012. The rest of the line was well established and had played together for a couple of years. Trent Williams was at left tackle after being selected 4th overall in 2010 and was still happy to be on the team because that whole kerfluffle where the medical staff didn’t bother to properly diagnose or treat the cancerous growth on his scalp for SIX YEARS hadn’t happened yet.
The O-line coming into 2024 is probably okayish, though they haven’t had a consistent group for the past few years and are again bringing in 3 new players. Their 3rd round draft pick, Brandon Coleman, will likely be starting at LT despite a shoulder injury with the other option being Cornelius Lucas, a veteran backup. No way to know how this group will ultimately perform, but we’ll probably see some hiccups early on in the season while the line is learning to work as a unit, and Jayden may have to use his running skills for escaping pressure more often than for running fun option plays alongside an unexpectedly successful 6th round RB.
Speaking of which, there is no potential Alfred Morris on the team right now. Fun fact, Alfred Morris was the first later round player to get a bonus for starting a bunch of games under the then-new CBA! The team actually DID draft a RB in the 6th in 2023, and he looked decent, but is on the practice squad this year. The three RBs on the roster are Brian Robinson Jr., Austin Ekeler, and Jeremy McNichols. Should be fine, but not nearly as much fun as Alfred and his 1991 Mazda 626.
There are also, bizarrely, FIVE tight ends on the roster, so I guess the potential availability of players to dump off to is one area where Jayden has the edge on RG3. I would say that RG3 also had a better receiving corps, but I don’t have any fun stories about Pierre Garcon or Josh Morgan so I’m not going to go into it.
To sum up, even if Jayden Daniels is amazing and brilliant and indestructible, he has a lot to overcome on a team that’s just starting to hopefully recover from the ravages of deep institutional rot. While RG3 was coming into a team with a similar win/loss record, there were a lot more solid pieces there that allowed him to show off his capabilities. Although not enough to keep him safe while doing so, and the creeping tendrils of Snyder’s influence ultimately destroyed his health and career. Turns out he actually did budget all his endorsement money pretty well though, and he’s now living happily in a $2.13m home in Texas, so it worked out okay for him. Jayden probably won’t have a stellar RG3-esque first season, but I think that’s actually a good thing as he has a real chance to have successful 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and more seasons!
I’m gonna say an optimistic 6-11, just because they have a weak schedule and no one has tape on Jayden Daniels yet.
