Boris’s DFS Week Two Write Up

Hey all. Let’s continue our initial success from week one onto to week two! Biggest thing to note is that week two is different from week one. I don’t know of a sport that is more matchup based than football. Just because Corey Davis did well last week does not mean I am on him this week. It’s a different game than seasonal.

As a reminder, for DK we want a score of 130 with upside. The scores were lower last week, and I think that has the potential to stay that way for a bit, at least until the bye weeks come into play, but not for long.

Initially I was a little worried this week. No Chiefs; I can’t use Kelce. No Ravens; I can’t use their run game. Also, thank god (God?) I don’t have to try to determine the lead back for the Lions. I also don’t have to figure out what the hell is going on in Green Bay. So let’s get to it!

I’m also including Fanduel pricing this week (DK  SD  FD).

QB

Note: Holy damn this looks like a good week for QBs. This is the type of week where if you choose poorly at QB… 

then it will likely kill you.

Kyler Murray – $8200  1x  $8700

He’s fine, he’s running again and DHop is dope AF. The matchup is good too; the Bungals just threw and ran all over the Vikings. You can go here, but what are you sacrificing at other positions on the salary sites? I would have a GPP lineup with him and DHop and maybe even AJ Green in it though. 

RW3 –  $7500  1.1x  $8500

Totally in play based off his last performance and considering the outing Zona and Kyler just had vs Tennessee. If you’re paying up at QB, I would argue taking the savings and dropping to Russ. 20 DK points here is close to a lock, 25 to 30 is doable. Another thing… if you believe in narratives, which I do, Trevor Moawad just passed at the age of 48 from cancer. Wilson refers to him, his conditioning coach, as his best friend.

Tom Brady – $6900  1.2x   $8200

Fine with him, and he will likely put up points. This asshole arguably looks better at 44 than he did at 24. Since he is a statue, he doesn’t run though, and the Falcons proved themselves vulnerable to it. I can totally see this as a scenario where the Bucs curbstomp the Falcons with their run game. Hurts went over 60 rush yards against the Falcons last week, Brady isn’t doing that. Also, Falcons suck. So after Tampa goes up 21 – 0, how much more will they throw? Hence this play and price is tough for cash games. I will say, in two meetings last year, the Bucs put up 75 points vs the Falcons. One of TB’s WRs is likely having a good day. Best matchup belongs to Godwin. Best game theory perspective is Evans. Toughest fade (means you’re not using him at all) is AB.

Dak Prescott – $6800  1.05x  $8000

Dak looked real good vs Tampa last Thursday. I expect this game to be a popular one, and for both Dak and Herbert to carry some ownership. I do think that the Chargers have a decent defense, but I thought that about the Bucs and Dak still went HAM. So…the Cowboys are going to allow points scored against them, their D just isn’t good, and Demarcus Lawrence, their best defensive player, just broke his foot. Additionally, their offensive line just isn’t as good as it used to be, so you’re going to be hard pressed to find me writing up Zeke this year. O-line not as good + bad D = Dak will be throwing. If Zack Martin is back though, it should be a huge help to the line.

Justin Herbert – $6700  1.15x  $7600

Since the Dallas D isn’t good, this prolific offense should continue to eat. WFT is a pretty good D and Herbert threw for 337 yards against them. I’m excited about a potential shootout here, as I am sure others are too though. Demarcus Lawrence is now out for 6 – 8 weeks with a broken foot. Chargers gonna charge here. If you don’t think this game blows up, start Ekeler and Chargers D in a gpp.

Jalon Hurts – $6500  1.3x  $7800

that Hurts’ price only went up $100 on DK. I don’t really expect an equal outing from Hurts this week, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t usable in cash games. I do expect a better effort out of the 49ers defense this week, but Jared Goff just had a day against them. 

Joe Burrow – $5800  1.4x   $7100

Other than being talented, I also think Burrow is tough. I don’t think he fears anything, at least anything an NFL defense can send his way. No idea how he feels about murder hornets. He has some good weapons and a complimentary ground game that should give him a safe floor week to week. I’m probably paying up a little more at QB because the ceilings of some of the other guys are likely higher, but 18 DK points could be enough to get it done.

RB

CMC – $9900  1x  $10,000

As per usual, I am probably not going here (except maybe on SD), but I can’t fault you if you do. Dude had 187 total yards last game, didn’t have a TD, and still scored 27.7 DK points, which gets you where you need to be. The Saints certainly look like a tougher D than the Jets, but CMC is still the focal point of the Panther offense, and the Saints have defensive injuries this week.

Alvin Kamara – $8800  1.1x  $8800

It took a second look for me to realize that Kamara was benched in the 4th quarter last week because the game was so out of hand. He had 20 carries for 83 yards and 3 catches for 8 yards and a TD…in 3 quarters. He’ll be involved in the offense as well, but I like someone else for a cheaper price this week…

Nick Chubb – $7800  1.2x  $8400

I honestly think the Browns have the best offensive line in the league, which is great for their run game. My problem with Chubb in cash games on DK is that he doesn’t catch passes; so he becomes like Henry, TD and 100+ yard reliant. The Browns are likely going to run all over the Texans, and I like the potential ownership percentage considering James Robinson did next to fuckall in this same matchup last week, it’s tough to go here in DK cash games, and am counting on others to feel the same way #gametheory. This is an absolute smash spot for Chubb. From a game script perspective: if the Browns go up early, they likely run out the game with Chubb and Hunt. On SD and FD, just play Chubb as PPR is less in play on those two sites. I do expect a 100+ yard game and at least 1 TD, which is close to a 20 DK point game and 2.6x his DK price. 150 yards and 2 TDs is not out of the question.

Austin Ekeler – $7300  1.35x  $7000

That DK price is tough to swallow after he was not targeted in the receiving game last week. But that was against WFT, this week he gets Dallas, who likes to get into shootouts. I love the SD multiplier in particular. The Chargers offense will utilize him heavily, I think the light load last week was due to the limited practices/ailment he was dealing with; he isn’t on the injury report this week.

Miles Sanders – $6900  1.45x  $6300

I fucking hate this guy. He has burned me so many times in the past when he had what appeared to be a layup against a soft D. That being said, that’s likely his coach’s fault and not his own, so my anger is likely misplaced. The new OC, Shane Steichen, showed that Miles Sanders is the guy in this backfield last week, and now they get a SF D that allowed TWO! Detroit RBs to run all over them. Or did they? The Det RBs beat SF with their pass catching, which is something Sanders is pretty good at. I like him on SD and FD better than DK because of the price and multiplier. Also, this coaching staff is highly analytics based…so I firmly believe they are likely to tweak their offense based on the opponent. Not going Hurts this week, might go Sanders.

Najee Harris – $6300  1.45x  $6200

I am very concerned about the overhaul the Steelers did to their offensive line. But… Harris was pretty much the lone back in the Pittsburgh backfield last week. We just saw what the Ravens did in their run game vs the Raiders and Harris gets all the reps in this backfield AND he receives a price decrease this week.

David Montgomery – $6100 1.25x  $7300

Bengals looked better than I thought vs the run, but I still wouldn’t call it good. I loved Cook in this spot last week, and the difference in price down to Montgomery is substantial. Montgomery has a pretty clear path to being a highly utilized back with Cohen out. 

Leonard Fournette – $5100  1.55x  $5900

If you think the Bucs go up big, which I do, and you think the game script calls for them to try and run out the clock against the Falcons in the 2nd half, which I do, then Fournette is in line for a lot of carries. ‘But wait’ you say. ‘There are two other backs there for the Bucs!’ My reply: only try to realize the truth…there is no spoon.

(So we’re clear, the spoon is Ronald Jones and Gio Bernard…and they’re not real.)

Elijah Mitchell – $5000  1.75x  $5800

The San Francisco backfield is not for the faint of heart. That being said, a SF RB is going off every week. So who’s it going to be this week? The injury to Mostert, benching of Sermon, and subsequent 19 carries to Mitchell makes it seem like Mitchell is the RB1 for now. Hasty is still there, Wilson will be back at some point, they just signed Kerryon Johnson and claimed Cannon who played on Monday. This is a situation that DEFINITELY NEEDS TO MONITORED PRIOR TO LOCK ON SUNDAY, but the hapless Falcons ran for 124 yards against this defense; the Niners ground game should be fine here. If you plan on apple picking instead of following the open thread or refreshing your Twitter, don’t play DFS. I will aso say this….no one knew this dude’s name last week, a week later he will be highly owned. 

Kenyan Drake – $4900  1.45x  $5500

I wasn’t even considering this before Jacobs was declared out. To be honest, I’m still really not. However, Drake is a capable back in what is now a RB1 role this weekend at a decent price. The Steelers are a tough defense, but if Drake gets 15 – 20 touches, I imagine that he hits value, I just don’t see the upside here.

WR

Deandre Hopkins – $8000  1x  $8500 

The Vikings secondary still doesn’t look good and DHop is awesome. The tough part will be trying to force him in on the salary sites. Don’t expect 2 TDs every week, but in this matchup, expect him to be featured.

DK Metcalf –  $7600  1.15x  $7000 / Tyler Lockett – $7200  1.25x  $7200

Why this combo is in the 7000s and Cooper and Lamb are not is beyond me. I doubt I will end up here myself except on FD where Metcalf is underpriced, but me and King Hippo were just signed to the Titans practice squad cuz the Titans secondary is so bad. I plan on targeting them heavily this year.

Keenan Allen – $7000  1.1x  $7400 / Mike Williams – $6100  1.6x  $5600

I am in on both, however, you cannot play Ekeler and one of these two in cash. I will say that OC Lombardi did say all offseason that Williams would play the role of the X in this offense, which is essentially the role Michael Thomas played when Lombardi was with the Saints. Now, I had trouble buying that considering Mike Williams’ history. Despite him being talented, Williams just hasn’t been week-to-week reliable in fantasy. However, Williams was indeed the X last week and received 12 targets. Allen received 13. To be clear, I expect both of those numbers to go down if Ekeler begins to get targeted. On SD Williams is the guy; on DK the pay up to PPR god Allen is worth it. On FD, I think you good go either way depending on what other options you want to open up.

Amari Cooper – $6800  1.2x  $7800  / Ceedee Lamb – $6400  1.4x  $6800

16 and 15!!! targets last week for Cooper and Lamb…and they are priced in the 6000s??? I prefer Lamb here just because a 2 TD performance generally doesn’t get repeated the following week, but have no issues with whomever you go with here. As an aside, come draft time next August, I think Cedee Lamb will be in the conversation of WR1 in the entire league and worth a potential first round pick.

Tompa Bay Receivers – Chris Godwin – $6600 1.3x  $8000 / Mike Evans – $6100  1.2x  $6700  / Antonio Brown – $6000 1.45x  $6400

One of these guys is having a day. In perusing the DFS industry, Mike Evans is getting a lot of love, but Godwin has the best matchup, and AB is looking like the AB of a few years ago. My point? I can’t go in here in cash games because I just don’t know which one it’s going to be, but it will be someone. 

Allen Robinson – $6200  1.2  $7200

I really like the DK price here. ARob had a tough matchup against the Rams, but he still had 11 targets for a 28% target share. Now he gets the Bungals whose corners Apple and Hilton allowed all 13 passes sent their way to be completed. ARob moves all over the formation, he’s gonna get his this week.

Tyler Boyd – $4700 1.35x  $5700 / Ja’Marr Chase $5000  1.45x  $5500 / Tee Higgins $5400 1.5x  $6000

Yowzaa. Seems each fantasy site kinda went their own unique way with each one of these guys. The Bears secondary looked inept vs Stafford, and Joe Burrow is actually kinda good at football. I prefer Chase, then Higgins, then Boyd, but I think it’s possible for any of these three to find success in this matchup, it just depends on how the Bengals will attack them. I’ll use one of my gpp rules here: two pass catchers are company, three’s a crowd. Chase’s price and talent, and familiarity with Burrow from college make him my choice for cash this week, but I also think he will be more highly owned based on price.

Courtland Sutton – $5200  1.3x  $6200

Jerry Jeudy? He gone. This leaves Sutton in a very good situation vs Jacksonville this week. Tyrod Taylor and Brandin Cooks were able to have a day against this defense. In all honesty, I would prefer to go with a Denver RB in this matchup, but the timeshare between MG3 and Williams is not something I am interested in for cash. Sutton should have no issues achieving 10+ DK points in this matchup. If he can’t, there is serious cause for concern here. I do not like him on SD though…the multiplier isn’t high enough.

Jakobi Meyers – $5100  1.65x   $5500

So we’re clear, I like this play the best on DK as it’s full point PPR. I wanted to write up Jakobi in this space last week, but ultimately thought the Pats would attack via the ground, which for the most part they did. However, Meyers clearly solidified his role in this offense with 9 targets for 6 catches and 44 yards. Now we get a Jets secondary that isn’t good and a pass rush that the Patriots O-line should have no trouble dealing with. If he gets 6 catches again this week (likely), and more than 44 yards (also likely), then he goes close to 2.6x his salary. 

Marquez Callaway – $4200  1.8 x  $5700

I love the fact that he did nothing last week and was 50% owned in cash games. Nothing has changed here. He’s still WR1. The Saints just beat GB with defense, rushing, and TDs to something named Juwan Johnson. Also…Callaway received a price increase. No one will be on him here, and the Jets used their #1 wideout for 2 TDs last week against the Panthers.

Cedrick Wilson – $3100  1.75x  $4900

This is my low priced option for the week if you need to get down here. He is the new Michael Gallup (who went on IR) and now the WR3 in an offense that will be passing. When Gallup left, Wilson came in and ran 22 routes and caught all 3 of his targets. Add in Gallup’s 7 targets and 4 catches and we are looking at a real possibility of 8 targets and 5 catches for Wilson as the Boys attempt to hang in this one. That likely gets us the 2.6x we need at this price. 

TE

Note: I’m just not paying up for Waller vs the Steelers this week. Steelers are historically good vs that position, just shut down the high flying Bills, and I don’t like chasing last week’s performances. Kittle is also in a good spot, but I can’t trust him cash based on his recent history, so I’m going to take a deep breath and pay down.

Rob Gronkowski – $4700  1.45x  $5800

I’m not chasing last week’s performance here, I’m pointing out that the Falcons are vulnerable to the TE. I do not expect another 20+ point performance from Gronk here, but 10 DK points is quite possible. The Bucs also have 2 other pass catching TEs on their team too.

Noah Fant – $4200  1.4x  $5700

With the injury to Jeudy, Fant could be more relied upon to catch passes. He was healthily involved in the pass game last week and now gets the lowly Jags.

Tyler Higbee – $4100  1.5x  $5600

I do think you can go here based on usage from last week. With Everett gone, Higbee is now the clear TE in this offense and was the only TE last week to see any action in the Rams passing game with 6 targets for 5 catches and 68 yards. SF showed that Indy can be passed on and at $4100 it won’t take much for Higbee to hit value.

Jared Cook – $3900  1.6x  $5400

Last week Cook had 8 targets for 5 grabs and 56 yards, which, if he does again, is more than needed in cash games. I wasn’t sure what to make of this situation with Parham there, but neglected to remember that Cook played under Lombardi recently in the Saints organization. They now get the Cowboys who allowed Gronk to run wild on them last week. I like the upside here.

DST

New England Patriots – $3700  $5000

Did you watch Zach Wilson last week? I know Bellichick has by now.

Tompa Bay Buccaneers – $4100  $4500

Fuck. The. Falcons. The Bucs are a better D than they showed last week. Don’t fall trap to falling on Ridley because of the “29th or 32nd ranked defense” the Falcons are facing after one week. 

Denver Broncos – $3800  $4600

The Jacksonville isn’t good. I’m not sure Denver is going to be a prolific DFS DST, but they are solid everywhere and shouldn’t be run up on by anyone, least of all the Jags.

New Orleans Saints – $3100  $4300

They looked good against GB. I don’t think they have that kind of success every week, and I think CMC is more formidable than Aaron Fraudgers as my friend Joe likes to call him, but they shouldn’t get their teeth kicked in. CB Marshon Lattimore does look like he will not play, which helps the Panther passing game. LB Kwon Alexander and DE Marcus Davenport also look like they will miss.

Arizona Cardinals – $2900  $4400

My likely DST at this price. I don’t expect Jones to lock in 5 sacks again, but I like them to get a few points and not get bowled over by the Vikings offense.

Where I am at on DK:

I want Herbert or Dak to be my cash QB in what is likely a shootout. I like Dak on DK and Herbert on FD. RW3 is tempting though.

I’m locking in Chubb, even on DK. Could Hunt figure in? Sure. But barring an injury I see no way Chubb doesn’t get his here.

I think Allen could have a 10 catch week, and at his price I’m not missing that opportunity.

Clearly, I’m paying down at TE since there is no cheat code with Kelce this week. I also think Waller will be highly owned, so I’m risking being different there. 

Paying down to the Cardinals affords opportunities elsewhere.

I love the weeks when the majority of my plays are going to happen in the late afternoon games. I refer to it as the late day hammer.