QB

Kyler Murray – $8000  1x  $8500

Forgive me for living under a rock, but I just realized today (writing this on Thursday night) that the Cardinals are 4 – 0. In fact, it might be a chink in my DFS armor that I don’t often pay attention to team records because, ultimately, I could give two shits about who wins and loses these games; I just want to make sure I win. However, Kyler is vastly important to this team. If he were to go down or be limited, the Cards are likely fucked. Kyler is going to do his thing all over the 49ers face on Sunday. 20.8 points is what it is going to take here, and Kyler hasn’t gone under 22.5 all season, including against the Rams tough defense last week.

Tom Brady – $7400  1.2x  $8400

Tom is down to 2.5 TDs a game. That is about to change. I can’t go here in cash though because I think this will largely be a one sided game. Much like Josh Allen from last week, I can’t do one-sided games in cash.

Aaron Fraudgers – $7100  1.25x  $8000

I can’t not call him this anymore since my friend Joe incepted me with it.

I think this game has shootout potential, so I’m going to invest. As you will see below, I think the Bengals will find success in this matchup, and Rodgers will have to put up at least 18.5 DK points to pay off the salary and will likely have to go north of 20. He probably blows it late, but that shouldn’t make a difference for our DFS purposes after he accumulates 300 total yards and tosses 3 TDs.

Jalen Hurts – $7000  1.2x  $8100

You can’t ignore Hurts. His lowest output this season is 21.8 Dk points, which is more than the floor needed to get to 2.6x. The value that Hurts provides is his rushing floor, which is 35 yards. That’s close to a throwing TD just so we are clear. Carolina hasn’t surrendered a lot of fantasy points to opposing QBs, but 3 of the 4 QBs they have played are named Wilson, Winston and Mills, and they surrendered 27 points to Dak Prescott. I’m confident Hurts will go over 20 Dk points.

Sam Darnold – $6500  1.45x  $7600

I got on the Darnold bandwagon last week before most did. This time I am worried about groupthink and staying on the bandwagon for too long. Darnold likely gets the 2.6x we need regardless of whether or not CMC starts, I just would not chase the 36.5 DK outing he had last week. He probably vultures another TD from his RB, but QBs, especially ones named Darnold, rarely put up back to back huge outings. I’ll go elsewhere for cash this week, but a gpp entry is warranted.

Joe Burrow – $6100  1.45x  $7000

The Packers top two CBs Alexander and King are likely missing this game. Alexander alone is a huge miss as he is one of the best in the NFL. Joe Mixon is also going to miss this game. I don’t know about you, but would you try to focus on the run game with Samaje Perine when you have invested first round picks on Burrow and Chase vs a team without its top 2 corners? I’ve referenced that my friend Sharkbait and I could probably scheme better than most NFL coaches, but if that happens here, I will own it just like I have with the fuckstick show that is the Browns. As I see it though, this matchup screams Bengals throwing against the Packers, and I have to invest, especially when the Bengals are at home.

Daniel Jones – $6000  1.4x  $7400

30.8, 16.5, 29.5 and 22.4 are Jones’s DK points through 4 weeks; that’s an average of 24.8. Even the 16.8 is more than 2.6x. Ideally though we want our QB to go over 20 total points, but a larger price increase is probably necessary here. The Cowboys are bleeding points to both throwing and running QBs, which I fully expect to continue here. This is the team that gave up 36 fantasy points to Darnold last week.

Taylor Heinicke – $5900  1.6x  $7300

Since he has taken over the starting spot, Heinicke has yet to put up less than 23.4 Dk points, which includes a matchup vs the Bills. This week he gets the Saints who just let Daniel Jones put up over 30 fantasy point on them. I likely will not go here outside of a gpp though as Heinicke does not run like Jones. Heinicke and F1 are a nice gpp stack this week as their ownership projection looks low despite McLaurin’s bonanza week 4.

RB

Derrick Henry – $9000  1x  $10,400

Same as last week. If you can afford him, start him.

Dalvin Cook – $8400 1.15x  $9000

The question of the week is this: To Cook or not to Cook? For this situation, however, Dal Cook just isn’t priced high enough. If he hadn’t been carrying a questionable tag for the last two weeks, or if he hadn’t had a shitty showing against a pretty good defense last week (don’t worry, I still hate the Cleveland), then Cook would be priced at 9K on Draftkings and over 10K on Fanduel. The Lions cannot stop running teams. The Vikings want to be a running team. Cook has sat out and been limited at practice all week. However, he is the lead dog on a run first team against arguably the worst run D in the league. The situation has to be considered.

Saquon Barkley – $7300  1.45x  $7800

Saquon was limited in practice on Wednesday but was a full participant on Thursday, so he is good to go. Barkley is matchup proof and the total in this game is 52, so points have to come from somewhere. Love the SD multiplier.

Zeke Elliot – $7000  1.4x  $8000 / Tony Pollard – $5600  1.65x  $5600

I’ll be the first to admit that Zeke was not at all on my radar for season long fantasy, but a healthy Zach Martin is reminding us of what a Dallas run game is capable. Zeke didn’t practice on Wednesday, and was upgraded to limited so he is likely playing. If he were to miss, however, Pollard becomes a stone cold lock, and likely chalk, in cash games. Enter the Gmen. They have been giving up yards to RBs, so the Cowboys run game is in good shape this weekend.

James Robinson – $6000  1.5x  $7400

Urban Meyer seems to have finally realized how important this guy is to the offense as Robinson has received more touches each week. I’m going to be upfront though and let you know I am not going here in cash, because I want to attack the Titans secondary and therefore will be using Jones or Shenault.

Damien Williams – $5600  1.55x  $5800

This dude is going to slide right into the Montgomery roll in the Bears offense. I was hoping for a cheaper price though. While the Raiders defense has been better overall, they are pretty banged up coming into this matchup. They have not been great against the run. It isn’t a slam dunk matchup, but at $5600 Williams is a safe play.

WR

Same as last week, Devante Adams – $8200  1x  $8200 is fine. He will likely get his share of targets and endzone opportunities, but you will need 21.3 DK points out of him to have him pay off. He put up 12.4 last week after 11 targets for 6 grabs and 64 yards. You will likely need 100 yards receiving and a TD to get it done.

Justin Jefferson – $7700  1.1x  $8000 / Adam Thielen – $6600  1.3x  $7500

Jefferson is priced up for a reason here. The Lions have an injury-stricken secondary. Jefferson has largely operated as a outside receiver, so he will be up against CBs Price and Oruwariye. Price actually leads all CBs in targets per snap this season, so coaches and QBs are getting after him. The worry here is the reason their numbers don’t look all that bad is because their opponents have opted to attack them on the ground. That’s a concern here still, but if Dal Cook is not fully healthy, then attacking via the pass should produce good results. Not sure I can go here in cash, but this situation is definitely on my radar for gpps.

Deandre Hopkins – $7600  1.15x  $7500

Two weeks ago, Adams had his way vs SF. Last week Metcalf got his. Now it’s DHop’s turn. CB Williams will likely miss this game and old man Norman is also banged up. Though he has gone down in price, and 2.6x is more achievable, I probably cannot go here in cash based on the price and potential other ways for the Cards to score points.

DJ Moore – $7500  1.25x  $7900

Yep…getting wicked cute here and writing up the top 4 WRs! Don’t expect two more TDs our of Moore this week, but he a 35% target share, is going up against CBs Slay and Nelson, and is in a projected high paced game. Slay does not appear to be the player he used to be, and Nelson is allowing a 72.2% completion rate and 122.5 QB Rating when targeted. Both teams are throwing the ball above league average. So Moore should benefit from several things that should allow his red hot start to continue.

Deebo Samuel – $7100  1.25x  $7700

Deebo has a 33% target share is averaging about 10 targets per game. I’m a little concerned about whether or not Trey Lance starting will change things, but Samuel moves all over the formation and the Cardinals CBs Wilson and Alford won’t be able to stop him. They are allowing the eighth most FPPG to opposing wideouts. Wilson is allowing a 78.3% completion rate and has given up a TD in three straight games. Also, I think it’s likely that the 49ers will be playing from behind in this matchup, so the game script should set up nicely for Deebo.

Diontae Johnson – $6500  1.35x  $7000

Despite the tough defense that the Broncos have, DJ likely gets there on receptions alone. In the three games he has played this year he has received 10, 12 and 13 targets. He is Roethlisomething’s security blankie, and I just can’t ignore the role he has in the offense. 16.9 points is what it is going to take here. I do wish the matchup was better, and therefore probably won’t go here in cash.

Ja’Marr Chase – $5800  1.4x  $7300 

How much do I love Chase, let me count the ways:

1. I have him in a dynasty league on the cheap that should help for years to come.

2. He didn’t score on Thursday last week during primetime, when most people watch, so his price has not climbed yet (at least on DK).

3. He has a great rapport and connection with his QB…they know what the other is thinking.

4. The Packers top two corners are likely missing this game, so it is wheels up here.

5. I think many don’t go far enough with analysis to understand the importance of items 2 and 4, and therefore he should not be high owned. He wasn’t an option last Sunday, but I have yet to regret rostering this guy in cash.

Boyd is also in play. The Bengals are going to have to put up points to stay in this matchup.

Marvin Jones – $5700  1.5x  $6600 / Laviska Shenault – $4800  1.6x  $5800

The Titans secondary stinks. I honestly feel like I could stop there, but here we go. CB Jenkins has allowed the fifth most receiving yards among all corners while CB Fulton ranks top-five in highest yards per reception. That’s bad. No DJ Chark to compete for targets, so look for Lawrence to lean on these two. The Titans defense is allowing 84% of the receiving production against them to come from WRs. That percentage, well….

Allen Robinson – $5500  1.4x  $6100

It’s tough to go here in cash, I get it. But ARob hasn’t suddenly become some kind of bum. He has had to deal with two new QBs, one a rookie, being thrusted into a new offense. He is still WR1 for the Bears, and this price is absurd. ARob has never had a good QB throw him passes, yet he has been elite throughout his career. The Oakland Raiders are quite banged up in their secondary, and with Mooney’s recent emergence, opposing defenses will have to give him more attention. So I’m going to make a stance here and say ARob has his best game of the season this Sunday. To be clear though, that shouldn’t take much.

Hunter Renfrow – $4900  1.6x  $5800

Here’s some interesting stuff. The Bears defense plays Cover 2 and Cover 6. Against Cover 6, Renfrow ranks 19th in fantasy points per route run. Against Cover 2, he ranks 3rd. Renfrow is going up against the 31st ranked (out of 41) slot corner in Duke Shelley. Renfrow is currently playing the best football of his life right now and often carries next to zero ownership in DFS.

Jaylen Waddle – $4800  1.55x  $5400

I know I wrote up Waddle in this space last week, but that was largely because of what I found about his role in the passing game. This time around, however, it’s all about matchup. It’s as close of a sure thing that the Bucs will force Miami to pass. Waddle still has a team-leading 21% target share and averages 8 targets a game. The Bucs are dealing with four injuries to their secondary. Considering Waddle’s roll, the Bucs depleted secondary, the fact that Waddle only had 4 targets for 3 catches and 33 yards last week, I see him easily reaching the 12.4 fantasy points we need, and there is also upside for much more.

Kadarius Toney – $4000  1.95x  $5300

Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton are likely out, so the targets will need to go somewhere. Toney showed us some things in his last outing, he looked quite good after the catch, picking up 51 after the catch yards. Teams are passing against the Cowboys at the 2nd highest rate in the league. Don’t play both Toney and Barkley in a cash game, but if you need to pay down at WR, 10.4 DK points seems doable for someone who received 9 targets against the Saints last week. This also assumes that CB Diggs will be covering Golladay.

TE

No Kelce this week???!!!?!?!?!?

The question then becomes pay up for Waller or pay down and hope that your TE learns how to open doors and score a TD.

Darren Waller – $7300  1x  $7400

Unlike Kelce, Waller really isn’t WR2 on his team, he has his own role carved out of a group of receivers and RBs who all get run in the Raider scheme. Relying on a TD from Waller can be tough. So the question then becomes “Can he get to 18.9 DK points without one?” Waller hans’t achieved that since week one. He’s had exactly 7 targets in each of the last three weeks.

Dalton Schultz – $4400  1.65x  $6200

This is probably the likely chalk at the position given his role in the offense, his recent output, and the matchup vs the Gmen. I’m honestly considering not getting cute and just eating it here.

Mike Gesicki – $4200  1.55x  $5600

If Dalton isn’t the chalk, then Mr. Gesicki likely will be. He’s been getting targeted more in the last two weeks and found the endzone last week. The problem with TE though is that Gesicki, and others like him, could easily have a 3 catch, 37 yard performance and only rack up 6.7 points.

DST

Patriots – $4900  $5000

@Texans

Chargers – $2700  $3700

The Chargers are top 8 in the league in terms of fantasy points allowed to QBs, regardless of QB type. What does that mean? It means whether the QB throws or runs, they make it tough for that QB. Hello Baker Mayfield, you shithead. A pick 6 is in play in here, though you should not count on it. Also, know that the Chargers can be run on, but I trust the Charger staff to understand this and scheme accordingly to at least make life challenging for Chubb and Hunt.