Dear Joe Burrow,

Let me just start by saying how much of a fan I am. Anyone here at DFO can vouch for me when I say that I am huge fan, some might even say one of your biggest. I am really, really…like you have no idea how happy I am that you and your Bengals beat the fucking Chiefs yesterday…and I’m not even from Ohio!! You remind me of an and old school NFL QB…you don’t seem afraid of anything or anyone, and you will not be stopped on your conquest of the NFL in what I hope is a long and prolific career.

That being said, I sort of…..kind of….completely…faded you yesterday.

Now before you get mad………

Just know that it had nothing to do with you. It wasn’t you, it was me.

You had a career day a week ago against the Ravens, and all I did, simply all I did, was play the game theory odds that you, at higher ownership than you were last week, would not be able to…nor would you need to…come anywhere close to needing to duplicate that against the Chiefs.

I will try to never make this mistake again. I am sorry.

Love,

Boris

In order to win anything yesterday, you needed to have Ja’Marr Chase (4% owned). Sadly, I only had him in 2 of my lineups. The KC v Cincy game was the blowout game to have. The main one I focused on was LA v Baltimore, and unfortunately that one just never turned into the track meet I needed.

As stated in my apology/love letter, I simply backed off Burrow because he was going to be higher owned after his performance against Baltimore, and the Chief defense had been playing well. It was similar to the reason I faded Trey Lance (near 30% owned), and I will make that game theory choice every time. As you can tell from above, Lance was not in the winning lineup, that’s 30% of the field I already had beat by simply not playing him.

The DK Metcalf explosion game came, and yes, I owned him in many of my lineups, just not the one above.

Um….Tampa Bay…

I have no words other than from a game theory perspective, fading a 24% owned AB certainly paid off. I didn’t do that completely, in fact I was probably over the field, i.e. something like 40% of my lineups had him, and it cost me for sure.

I’m not going to get too into the weeds here with my specific plays, but I do just want to say that I truly feel the process is working. Some like Amon-Ra worked out, while others like Swift did not. I’m identifying, for the most part, the right situations to fade, and opportune pivots to make, and thus giving myself the opportunity to find one lineup out of 50 that has a chance to hit. I broke even yesterday. Since I have been focusing solely on gpps the last few weeks, if yesterday was a “bad day,” then I will gladly take it.

Next week is about to get weird with all the playoff scenarios and who is and who is not playing or will be limited or what have you. It should be fun. Maybe we’ll all go streaking!