Boris’s DFS Showdown Strategy with a Side of Autopsy

I’m sitting here wishing I had a job where I could literally get paid to not fucking do it.

Fuck NFL beat writers. You didn’t win anything yesterday unless you played Jerick McKinnon, and no one knew he was going to be the starting RB because the people who cover the team and write/Tweet out news about them don’t do their jobs!!!! I’ll accept that maybe KC was planning on splitting reps between Williams and McKinnon before Williams fumbled and let Pittsburgh score, but no one was out there spreading that news.

At least there were reports of Gio Bernard getting some work, and as such I played him which was helpful so thank you Tampa reporters.

I should have had at least a little bit of McKinnon, and that’s on me, but someone doing his or her job would be helpful.

I still have some viable lineups heading into tonight, so we’ll see if we can muster up a half-decent finish, but yesterday saw no significant returns for me.

Also, friggin zebras suck. The refs literally cost the Cowboys the game yesterday. I really don’t care that they lost, but holy hell refs get it together.

Since there is one more game tonight, I thought I would take the opportunity to share some of my Showdown strategies with you all since @col-duke-lacross mentioned it last week. I employ a set of rules that I follow to put myself in the potential position to have a unique lineup. Regardless of any of these rules though, just know that you have to get the captain right in order to win anything significant in a Showdown gpp. The opitmal captain typically is the player who puts up the most DK points, but sometimes the game could be so high scoring that a cheaper player in the captain spot might enable you to play a variety of studs.

Rule 1. Leave $ on the Table – Your average DFS player typically spends all of his or her salary. So when a lineup that has spent all of the $50,000 salary hits, the top spot in a gpp is usually being split by a lot of people. A lineup with $500 or more left on the table automatically makes you more unique than any of the other players. Your lineup with money left on the table is no more or less likely to be the optimal lineup, but it is much more likely to be unique. Since I’m greedy, I want to split the top prize with less people.

Rule 2. Play at least 1 QB – Nearly 90% of optimal lineups feature at least 1 QB.

Rule 3. Play at most 1 Kicker – 1% of optimal lineups have 2 kickers.

Rule 4. Play at most 1 Defense – 2% of optimal lineups have 2 Defenses.

Rule 5. Don’t Over Punt – A “punt” is a player priced below $2,000. Only play 1 in your lineup. 1.5% of optimal lineups feature more than one player under 2K.

Rule 6. Max 2 WRs from the same team. Less than 1% of optimal lineups feature 3 WRs from the same team.

Rule 7. Play at least 1 WR. Over 93% of optimal lineups feature at least 1 WR.

Rule 8. Stack WR captains with his QB or RB1. 96% of optimal WR captain lineups have said captain paired with his QB or RB1.

Those are the quick basics that I think any DFS player should employ when playing Showdown lineups.

For tonight’s game, I’m looking at Kupp, Ertz, and Edmonds (if Conner is out) at the captain spot. Stafford, Kyler, Kirk, Green, Michel, Higbee, and OBJ are all possible captains, but I’m not making 150 lineups so I narrow my captain pool down. I typically role with receivers at captain as they have a clearer path to ceiling games (PPR, 100 yard bonus, TDs). Kupp is obviously the best play in the game as he is likely to have the most fantasy points tonight, he just costs a shit ton to put him in your captain spot. I would consider Stafford given the matchup but he doesn’t possess running upside, so his path to his ceiling is only with a ton of yards and multiple TDs. which if he does, Kupp is likely going over 100 with at least one score. Because Kyler does have rushing upside he could be considered, but I actually think he sucks at football so I’m out there. Got any questions, feel free to ask. Enjoy the game, hopefully the refs let players decide the outcome!

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borisnow
Boris had a friend in his high school freshmen English class once mistakenly call him Boris, and the name has somehow stuck ever since. He attempts to teach high school English, aspires to write and somehow make a ton of money in DFS.
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Rikki-Tikki-Deadly

THIS GUY MIKE MCCARTHY I CALL HIM ANNA NICOLE SMITH BECAUSE HE FLEECED A DEMENTED OLD MAN OUT OF MILLIONS OF DOLLARS.

https://mobile.twitter.com/HaydenWinks/status/1482865224042512384

Last edited 2 years ago by Rikki-Tikki-Deadly
SonOfSpam

It feels weird to have respect for McCarthy, but here we are.

rockingdog

LOL

is summoning the slime player monster an illegal move

7D6EC217-7689-47A2-AFE5-1A4F99B25621.jpeg
ballsofsteelandfury

On Rule 8, you mention stacking a captain WR with a RB. Is the logic that the offense for that team will obliterate the defense so everyone will get theirs? I’m thinking the KC scenario with Pittsburgh. Mahomes was going to be highly owned, but combining say Hardman with McKinnon would probably pay off?

Also, do you consider elite TEs like Kelce to be the equivalent of a WR1?