We’ve got just four weeks left of the season; the playoff picture is now mostly set, but the final playoff spot – which could potentially be a crossover playoff berth by the Saskatchewan Roughriders – remains up for grabs. A quick refresher regarding the crossover playoff rule, for those unfamiliar or having forgotten: the top two seeds in each division are guaranteed a playoff berth, with the division winners guaranteed a first-round bye into the Division Final. Third seeds will then typically qualify in the final playoff berth in each division. However, if the fourth-place seed in one division has a final record better than the third seed in the other division, the fourth seed from the other division will “cross over” and bump the third seed from that final available playoff spot. As it currently stands, the 6-9 Saskatchewan Roughriders, currently fourth in the West, have a better record than the 4-10 Hamilton Tiger-Cats and 3-11 Ottawa REDBLACKS, who occupy the third and fourth seeds in the East. If they can finish ahead of both teams, that final East playoff is theirs to claim.

In league news this week:

• The Ottawa REDBLACKS finally did what should have been done months ago, and fired head coach Paul LaPolice. It’s disappointing for Ottawa fans that his dismissal happened so late in the season, with four games probably not nearly enough for them to win out and sneak into a playoff spot. LaPolice leaves the CFL head coaching ranks with an all-time win percentage just over .300 and just a single winning regular season under his belt, when he took the 2011 Winnipeg Blue Bombers to a Grey Cup game. Despite getting everything he wanted from management – especially a completely overhauled roster and tons of opportunity to pick his own guys – he couldn’t get a functional offence going at all over his two seasons both as head coach and offensive coordinator. The two jobs are really quite different – and I firmly believe he overloaded himself taking on both responsibilities, to the detriment of the entire team. As a coordinator, he’s excellent – his Grey Cup win in 2019 proved that – but I can’t see him getting another shot as the top dog again in this league, at least not any time soon. Special teams coordinator Bob Dyce will take over the reins as the interim guy to close out the season for the REDBLACKS, which could potentially serve as his audition for the big job next season – but it’s early days just yet.
• The Edmonton Elks lost top receiver Kenny Lawler for the season after he had surgery on his shoulder earlier this week; Lawler injured it in last week’s game against Montreal after making a fantastic catch in the second quarter. That’s too bad for Edmonton, even with their playoff hopes virtually extinct at this point in the year – he was having a good year on his new team after leading the league in receiving yards as a member of the Winnipeg Blue Bombers in 2021.
• The Winnipeg Blue Bombers traded for DB Alden Darby Jr. yesterday, in exchange for DE Cedric Wilcots II, who was sent the other way to Hamilton. Darby was a member of the 2021 Bombers Grey Cup winning team, after Winnipeg made another trade for him last year, shipping OL Terry Poole to Toronto in exchange. Darby was a key piece of the Winnipeg secondary last year, and after signing with the Ti-Cats in free agency, he now finds himself poised for another Grey Cup run.
• The Calgary Stampeders signed star receiver Malik Henry to a three-year contract extension, keeping him with the team through the 2025 season. Exact dollar figures were not disclosed, as is typical with CFL deals, but like all standard player contracts, he’ll for sure receive an NFL out clause for the brief December-February window before free agency opens. Henry has 1023 receiving yards and eight touchdowns on the season, and leads the league in yards after catch with 422.

Onto the games!

WEEK 17 RECAPS

Saskatchewan 13 vs. Winnipeg 31: Riders fans should be juuuust about ready to commit seppuku, I think. The team now hasn’t beaten archrival Winnipeg since October 5th, 2019 – just over three full calendar years ago. In similar fashion to the prairie rivalry, this game was also similarly tilted towards the Blue Bombers; Zach Collaros threw for 296 yards and four scores, while rookie receiver Dalton Schoen cracked the 1000-yard mark on the season, in addition to racking up 125 yards and a TD. The Roughriders’ offence floundered once again, with Cody Fajardo unable to throw a TD (though he did run one in); the only other points for the visitors came off two Brett Lauther field goals. Facing strong pressure from the Winnipeg D once again, Saskatchewan’s QB tandem of Fajardo and Mason Fine threw for two interceptions, not to mention a lost fumble. The Roughriders’ hopes for a playoff berth aren’t dead yet, but everything seems to be going wrong all at once for them – not a promising sign for November.

PICK: Winnipeg

RESULT: Winnipeg

Ottawa 19 vs. BC 34: This loss was the straw that broke the camel’s back for the REDBLACKS. As such, Paul LaPolice was finally canned. Why now? Why not weeks ago? A lot of it doesn’t stack up for me – but at least management finally wised up to the writing on the wall. The Lions dominated the first half, with QB Vernon Adams, Jr. throwing his first two TDs in orange & black to WR Keon Hatcher and RB James Butler; Ottawa could only muster a pair of Lewis Ward field goals to get some points on the board. The Lions did take their foot off the gas somewhat in the second half, but still added a field goal and a goal-line QB sneak TD by Antonio Pipkin to keep it a two-score margin of victory; Nick Arbuckle had a garbage-time TD pass to WR Tevaun Smith to make the final score look slightly more respectable, but the REDBLACKS were never truly in this game. Four games left in the season – and the page has clearly turned ahead to 2023 for the organization.

PICK: BC

RESULT: BC

Montreal 25 vs. Edmonton 18: Another week, another home loss for the Elks. Commonwealth’s Curse continues unabated for Edmonton, who lost in absolutely heartbreaking fashion off a 100-yard pick-six from the Als’ LB Tyrice Beverette midway through the fourth quarter. Montreal LB Micah Awe picked off Elks Taylor Cornelius a second time to ice the game for the visitors, and sent the crowd home unhappy once again; an Edmonton football team hasn’t won at Commonwealth since 2019. Montreal’s offence was middling – Trevor Harris threw for just 180 yards, though he did have a TD pass caught by Geno Lewis, while Dominique Davis punched in another from the goal line; kicker David Cote also missed two field goals on the evening – an unusual off night for him. Thank goodness for the drama of the fourth quarter – Montreal is suddenly poised to take a swing at top seed in the East if they can keep this late-season surge going.

PICK: Montreal

RESULT: Montreal

Toronto 2 vs. Calgary 29: The Stamps’ D is peaking at the exact right time. The Argos had to punt eleven times in this game, and failed to score a touchdown or even a field goal for the first time this season. Curiously enough, Calgary punted nine times in this game, despite the gaudy point totals – Ka’Deem Carey scored a rushing TD to ice this game late, while backup QB Tommy Stevens also had another rushing score at the goal line. However, thanks to the aforementioned excellent defensive effort – including a pick-six from LB Cameron Judge, freshly returned from his one-game suspension for punching Lions WR Lucky Whitehead – the home team absolutely crushed the visitors. Concerning stuff for Toronto as they look to stave off a late-season charge by Montreal for the top seed in the East.

PICK: Calgary

RESULT: Calgary

BYE: Hamilton (4-10)

WEEK 18 PREVIEWS

Saskatchewan (6-9) vs. Hamilton (4-10), Friday, October 7th, 7:30 PM EDT (TSN, ESPN+): Saskatchewan needs a lot of things to go right for them if they want to make the playoffs… specifically, they need to win probably at least one more game to keep ahead of Hamilton for that final East playoff spot, available to them courtesy of the aforementioned crossover rules. But that’s banking on a lot of stuff. Dane Evans has had some rest – and although Week 16 he didn’t look all-world, that Week 15 game he had against league-leading Winnipeg proves that if you give the right guy the time and space, he’ll find ways to carve you up every single time. I still have no idea what version of Dane Evans will appear for Hamilton this week – and as flawed a player as he is, he is, through attrition from injuries, etc., the team’s final hope for a playoff berth. The Riders can win this one – seems like they hang in games a little better when Winnipeg or BC aren’t involved – but the offence needs to execute in the red zone. Without it, I just don’t see their D being capable of stealing a game.

PICK: Hamilton

BC (10-4) vs. Toronto (8-6), Saturday, October 8th, 4:00 PM EDT (TSN, ESPN+): It was weird how out-of-sorts the Argos looked last week – it was unquestionably their worst game of the season. It’s football, and that can definitely happen – but the timing is certainly inopportune with Montreal breathing down their necks right now. Toronto also faces a challenge as Vernon Adams, Jr. continues to get more and more comfortable in BC’s offence – he had an excellent game last week against Ottawa, and when he’s at his best he can give any team in this league fits. Toronto will also have to deal with two significant losses on D – DE Shane Ray is done for the year, having torn his bicep, while LB Wynton McManis is gone for a minimum of four weeks as he deals with an MCL injury. Those two are some key contributors, and the Argos will need to get creative, especially against a team that utilizes read-options and designed QB runs so effectively in their offence.

PICK: BC

Edmonton (4-11) vs. Winnipeg (13-2), Saturday, October 8th, 4:00 PM EDT (TSN, ESPN+): With a win in this one, the Blue Bombers can clinch the West Division with three weeks left in the season. That first-round bye seemed to serve them very well last year, with the ability to rest so many key starters leading up to the West Final – but hopefully after two straight Grey Cup wins, it doesn’t mean that complacency will set in. Even with Edmonton needing several miracles to happen if they want to somehow find themselves in the playoffs, full credit for this team for still battling it out in every game they play. Last week’s loss to Montreal really stung, and it was unfortunate that a pick-six proved to be the dagger; as tough as the Elks’ defensive situation is right now, having surrendered 492 points through 15 games – last in the CFL by a country mile – they’re still showing some fighting spirit. Assuming this game likely goes as it does, at least Chris Jones and his coaching staff will be able to get a jump on thinking about next year a little early.

PICK: Winnipeg

Ottawa (3-11) vs. Montreal (7-7), Monday, October 10th, 1:00 PM EDT (TSN, ESPN2): REDBLACKS’ interim HC Bob Dyce says he’ll be hiring an offensive coordinator for the rest of the season, and also stated he wants to bring someone in to do special teams so that he can avoid the dual head coach/coordinator role that likely contributed to the downfall of his former boss. Fans mostly just want to see a competitive game with players actively showing some heart, unlike the last few games have gone for this team. That said, a loss here, coupled with a Saskatchewan win over Hamilton, would officially make Ottawa the first team eliminated from the playoff race. After three seasons of complete ineptitude, a wholescale culture change is needed for this team. Montreal could really use another win here to keep their hot streak going – with Toronto up against BC this week, the Alouettes can equal the Argos’ record, if the Lions can give them a helping hand, and set up a dogfight over the last few games for that first round bye. Getting RB William Powell back in the lineup will also hopefully be a shot in the arm for the Als. Even if Toronto does win, the Alouettes can still clinch a home playoff game with a win in this one. Interesting to see how this team has come together over the back half of the year.

PICK: Montreal

BYE: Calgary (10-5)

STANDINGS AND STATS

East Division Standings

West Division Standings

x- clinched playoff spot
y- clinched division title
e- eliminated from playoff contention

Passing Yards 

1. Collaros, WPG – 3874
2. Bethel-Thompson, TOR – 3866
3. Rourke, BC – 3281

Passing TDs

1. Collaros, WPG – 32
2. Rourke, BC – 25
3. Bethel-Thompson, TOR – 19

Rushing Yards

1. Carey, CGY – 949
2. Oliveira, WPG – 858
3. Butler, BC – 727

Receiving Yards

1. Rhymes, BC – 1165
2. Acklin, OTT – 1125
3. Schoen, WPG – 1113

Sacks

1. Mauldin, OTT – 14
2. Lemon, CGY – 12
3. Ceresna, EDM – 10

Interceptions

1. Peters, TOR – 6
2. Peters, BC – 5
3. Kelly, HAM – 5

Field Goals

1. Paredes, CGY – 43
2. Ward, OTT – 38
3. Lauther, SSK – 38

PICK POOL

Still furious at myself that I didn’t submit those two weeks of picks. I am convinced I’d be challenging for a crown right now had that not happened. Such is life. At least I (and a few else of yinz) had some perfect weeks again.

Remember to submit your picks here! https://www.pooltracker.com/join.asp?poolid=205786

Enjoy the games, everyone.