Welcome to my Week Two NFL Sunday DFS breakdown! A quick reminder that what lies below is for being competitive in GPP contests. I build over 60 lineups with the goal of getting one in contention to win.

Also, if you open up my article on Gridiron, I would appreciate it!

A Quick Rule for Week Two NFL Sunday DFS:

Do. Not. Chase. Last. Week.

Explanation of Said “Quick” Rule:

Last week was last week, and it will never happen again. Deep down we all know this, but for some reason we do not practice it. In my seasonal leagues I see people trading for the likes of Devin Duvernay and cutting guys like DJ Chark, Justin Fields, the Browns defense, and the Rams defense for the likes of OJ Howard, Michael Carter, and Jeff Wilson. You cannot overreact to week one, and you cannot expect a repeat performance in week two. Everything is different. Matchups are different, coaching decisions will be different, and injuries are already a factor. Please be patient in seasonal.

Week Two NFL Sunday DFS

In terms of DFS, I made some bad calls last week, but I was spot on on others. I will own the bad ones and make improvements, but I refuse to overreact. I actually had a friend ask me if he should bench Mike Williams on Thursday. Think I told him that I would never bench Mike Williams in seasonal?

Let’s get into the week two NFL Sunday breakdown!

Week Two NFL Sunday Chalk Report

Washington Commanders v Detroit Lions

Yeah, it’s looking like this whole game stack is going to come in with significant ownership.

While there are certainly parts of this matchup that appeal to me (written below), I can’t go in for a GPP contest with a highly owned Carson Wentz. I won’t do it. You can’t make me. One of the highest owned QBs in week two is the guy who chose to do this:

Yeah.

That guy.

However….

Jared Goff – $5400 would be my preferred way to get access to this matchup without eating chalk. I’m not sure I’ll Jared Goff that much (that’s right, I turned him into a verb), but just over a week ago people thought Wentz stunk too…because he does.

D’Andre Swift – $7000 is a game time decision. If he doesn’t play, Jamaal Williams – $5400 becomes chalk, and I will simply fade him to attempt to gain leverage on the field.

Amon-Ra St. Brown – $6500 continued his tour de force of the NFL and had a 32% target share last week. Slot CB Benjamin St-Juste just allowed over 100 receiving yards to Christian Kirk.

Terry McLaurin –  $6600 looks like the lowest owned WR of the Commander group this week. He’ll get outside CBs Jeffrey Okudah and Amani Oruwariye. Both are not good. Both allowed the Eagles WR1, AJ Brown, to catch and run all over them in week one. If F1 is coming in lower owned than the likes of Jahan Dotson, Curtis Samuel, and Antonio Gibson, then I’m in. Jahan Dotson is legit, and if you don’t have him in seasonal, I would stop reading this an go add him. However, I am not playing him this week. The Lions noticed that 2 TD performance too.

Other Week Two NFL Sunday DFS Chalk

• DeVante Adams – $8600 will be chalk but see below for a further explanation.
• Saquon Barkley – $7300. And I thought he was chalk last week. Saquon will carry even more ownership in week two. He leads the league, after one week, in snap percentage for RBs with 83%. Those numbers are probably not sustainable, but they might be sustainable this week vs the Panthers. We need to ask ourselves if we can play an RB at around 30% ownership (the highest at the RB position) and get different enough elsewhere. Game theory typically prevails though, so I’m going to make sure I have a few lineups without Saquon.
• Joe Burrow – $6600. I love the guy, and I will be using him in DFS this season, but not for this NFL Sunday DFS slate. Joe is going to carry ownership, and he shouldn’t have to throw 40 times in this matchup. While I am bullish on the Bengals offensive line, they clearly need some more time to gel. However. if this coaching staff cannot get out of this game with a win, or if they cannot get out of this game without turning it into a track meet, then they do not deserve to have a repeat at last year’s playoff success.
• Devin Duvernay – $4300. Don’t chase 2 TD performances. Would it really surprise anyone if he only had 2 more TDs all year?
• Tyler Higbee – $4200. TE is a dumpster fire in NFL Sunday DFS week two. People will see the 11 targets Higbee had last week and go from there. I will not.
• Jahan Dotson – $4200. Just to reiterate, Dotson was a value last week. This week he will be over-owned. Same rule as Duvernay, don’t chase last week’s performances.
• Bengals DST. I get it, and I’ll probably play it too a little. If you want to go dumpster diving at defense though, I can make arguments for the Saints, Dolphins, Jets, Texans, and Falcons. I get the feeling that most GPP builds for this NFL Sunday DFS slate will have cheap defenses in them. The Bengals will lead the way, and might be worth the fade.

NFL Sunday DFS Game Stack

Yep. Stack. As in one, singular. I’m not eating Lion and Commander chalk, so that leaves one game environment for me at the moment.

Arizona @ Las Vegas

Derek Carr – $6200 tossed 3 picks in the Raiders loss to the Chargers last week. First off, the law of averages suggests that won’t happen again. Second, the Cardinals defense used a bunch of Cover – 1 in their loss to the Chiefs. Carr happens to historically slay Cover – 1.

• DeVante Adams – $8600 can be considered again, and despite his price it’s going to be tough to get away from him. I’m expecting Adams to carry some more ownership after he reminded the world that he’s one of the best receivers in the league. CB Byron Murphy let over 80% of passes thrown his way to be completed. Marco Wilson is 88th out of 95 ranked CBs. Adams will be deployed against both, but am cautioning against Adams receiving over 50% of his team’s target share again. I do expect him to find the endzone at least once though.
• Hunter Renfrow – $5500 got a nice price decrease after a lackluster performance. Adams moved all over the formation including into the slot where Renfrow is typically deployed, but Renfrow will have his weeks, which could start here against some bad DBs. However, please know that he is no longer a legitimate redzone target, so it’s going to be tough for him to get there on receptions. For example, will 7 grabs for 86 yards and 15.6 DK points be enough to get it done?
• Mack Hollins – $3100 got but 1 =-0olone target in week one despite being on the field for 88% of the snaps. 17 targets to one outside WR (that’s Adams btw) is unsustainable, and Mack is going against the same terrible CBs. One of these weeks when Mack Hollins catches a long TD, no one will own him. I will.
• Darren Waller – $5600 had me worried since he did not participate much in the preseason. In week one he had 6 targets for 4 grabs and 79 yards. He also played about 85% of the snaps.
• If stacking Carr, I would not use more than 2 of his pass catchers. Not many will have both Adams and Hollins.

Kyler Murray – $7500 is the most expensive QB on the slate because the actual good ones play in all the night games in week two. I’ll probably be using the Raider side of things more, and then at least one guy in the Cardinal side as a run back, but I will have a Kyler stack or 5:

• Hollywood Brown – $6200 disappointed at little at over 18% ownership last week as he only had 6 targets for 4 catches, 43 yards, and luckily a TD. This week he goes up against the likes of Rock Ya-Sin and/or things named Amik Robertson and Sam Webb. Any of these are plus matchups for Hollywood.
• AJ Green – $4300 definitely disappointed last week, but he gets whatever CB Hollywood does not. He’ll basically be unowned as well.
• James Conner – $6900 can be considered in an AZ stack as he catches passes. He had 5 grabs on 6 targets for 29 yards receiving. He also has 16 TDs in 16 career games with the Cards. I’m glad he didn’t go off last week as it should keep his ownership low.
• I’ll admit, I had no idea what a Greg Dortch was after week one. But

• Raider Slot CB Nate Hobbs is actually really good, so I’m not rushing to start special teams hero turned slot receiver Greg Dortch. Yep, Dortch is a nice story as he has been laboring away for a few seasons to earn dedicated receiving time, but this is a tough spot after one good performance. I’ll have a little in case I’m wrong, but the advantageous matchups for the Cardinals in the passing game are on the outside, not in the slot where the Raiders should be quite aware of Mr. Dortch. *Should Be.*

Mini Stack

Atlanta Falcons v Los Angeles Rams

I am not looking to stack Stafford and/or Mariota with many of their pass catchers, but there are parts of this game I am interested in.

• Cooper Kupp – $9900 is super expensive this week, but it’s warranted. Kupp had 15 targets from last week, and Jarvis Landry just went over 100 yards on CB Dee Alford. I’m salivating imagining what Kupp will do. I’m not sure I’m comfortable this weekend with a lineup that does not have Kupp or Adams…which also makes it difficult to have Taylor.
• Darrell Henderson – $5700 was one of just three RBs to play in over 80% of his team’s snaps in week one. He also got in some receiving work. I don’t trust McVay to use Henderson in the same way though, so be cautious.
• Drake London -$5200. I’m not sure what to make of the Rams CB cover scheme after one week, but it wasn’t great as the Rams CBs got torched by the Bills receivers, specifically on the perimeter. London showed himself to be an outside WR against the Saints, going for 7 targets for 5 grabs and 74 yards, reminding me why he was drafted as the first WR off the board in this past year’s rookie draft. Troy Hill, David Long , and Jalen Ramsey did not look good. London has the talent to be a star in the NFL, and this could potentially be the lowest price we see him at for some time.
• Kyle Pitts – $5400. I’ll keep this simple, he’s too good to be ignored. Additionally, he will be low owned on a slate that features next to nothing at the TE spot.

 One-Offs

Trey Lance – $5700. If you wanted to get naked at QB, 

then Lance is your guy. (Why and how did this font size change??? Literally couldn’t figure it out on WordPress.) He’s going up through the quad and into the gymnasium because I guarantee you the 49er brass is worried that they made a terrible decision. Why did they keep Jimmy G? They could have traded him, easily, but they didn’t. They think they have a team to win right now (spoiler alert: they don’t). In case they’re wrong about Lance, they have Jimmy G. That being said, after week one’s Slip ‘N Slide weather, it will be Lance running SZN against the Seahawks who are now without Jamaal Adams. He will have at least one rushing score, which is six DK points as opposed to four for a passing TD.

RBs

• Jonathan Taylor – $9900. I’m not going to lie, this price tag straight frightens me. At $9100 last week, Taylor was the second highest scoring RB and still did not make the optimal GPP winning lineup. Additionally, Jacksonville has a very recent history of ruining the Colts. However, Taylor comes in at playing 76% of his team’s snaps, which is top five in the league, so ignoring him is potentially foolhardy, but for better or worse, I doubt I end up with much of him. As a reminder, Naheem Hines – $5300 will win someone a million dollars this year.
• Joe Mixon -$7200. If I’m subscribing to the idea that this is not a competitive game, then it’s definitely possible that Mixon runs this game out on Dallas, has a few receptions and a score or two, and is a GPP winning RB for this NFL Sunday DFS slate.
• Javonte Williams – $6500 is the most dynamic RB in football. I will use him in GPPs until someone puts me out of my misery. If HC Nathaniel Hackett wants to keep his job, he will too.
• Rashaad Penny -$5400 looks Juuuuiiicccy this week because he is coming in low owned. Even a buddy of mine in my Discord chat is salivating over Kenneth Walker making his NFL debut this week….you know who you are. Seattle is a run first offense who, at the moment, has a clear RB1 that will basically go unowned this week. Kenneth Walker recently had hernia surgery. Hernia. Surgery. Let that sink in.

WRs

• Ja’Marr Chase – $8000. I said it last week, anywhere and any time. He’s in the conversation for the best WR in football.
• Tyreek Hill – $7100. He’s going to catch a minimum of six passes every week. I’m betting he finds the endzone this week.
• Brandin Cooks – $6000. Why is he only 6K? He had 12 targets last week.12! With Davis Mills at QB, Cooks averages 9 targets and roughly 15 PPR fantasy points per game.
• Christian Kirk -$5700. The Jags signed him as if he is a stud WR, and they are treating him as such. Week one Kirk saw 12 targets and a near 1/3 of the target share.
• DJ Moore – $5700 received a price decrease, and I friggin love it. Both Baker and Moore have solid numbers vs Cover-1, and the Gmen ran the 5th most Cover – 1 in Week One according to Wes Huber. Additionally, the Gmen are extremely banged up in their secondary. I hate Baker…like, I actually despise him, but he’s even worse than I think he is if he isn’t getting Moore involved early and often on Sunday.
• Zay Jones – $4300. If you don’t want to go Kirk, may I humbly offer Jones as tribute? He ran the same amount of routes as Kirk and saw 9 targets.
• Parris Campbell – $3700. Taking a break from his role in The Crucible, Parris could indeed be WR1 for the Colts on Sunday. The team is confident Michael Pittman – $6700 will play, but with Alec Pierce already out, Campbell could become overwhelming chalk if Pittman does not play.
• George Pickens – $3600. The fantasy world was straight buzzin about him during the preseason. This week I’ve heard nothing, and I’ve seen him dropped in 3 of my seasonal leagues. The Patriots have like one good CB (Jones) and one good safety (McCourty).

TEs

• Marc Andrews – $6400 ran a route on 100% of Lamar Jackson’s drop backs last week. There will be weeks when he comes in as TE1 and in optimal lineups.
• Hayden Hurts – $3600 had 2 redzone targets. 5% ownership, potentially no Tee Higgins, a love affair I’ve had since he was drafted by the Ravens….what could go wrong?

            Update: Tee Higgins likely to play…FML.

If I have updates, which is likely, I’ll post them in the comments here. Enjoy Sunday!