[Editor’s Note: With Andy Reid sorting out a thorny issue with U.S. Customs agents at the Canadian border, The Losers’ Investment Club will be on hiatus this week and presumably will return next week when $ARA is hopefully out of the toilet.  At least it’s not ROKU, I guess.]  

Greetings!  Welcome to a half-assed preview of this year’s Rugby World Cup.  Since I’m making a point of avoiding watching the NFL this season, rugby is going to have to serve as the methadone to the NFL’s heroin.  But that’s not an entirely accurate analogy, because I actually enjoy watching rugby.  Unlike football, the games run interrupted through the entire halves.  Even the instant replay system is more efficient and thus, more bearable than what the NFL has to offer.

The biggest problem with the Rugby World Cup this year is that it’s hosted by Japan.  Not that I have any reason to believe that Japan will do a less-than-competent job of hosting it; the problem is the time zone change.  I’m in California, which means that the earliest games start at 9:45 p.m.  The latest ones – which includes most of the marquee matchups – start around 3:00 a.m.  It’s a dilemma as to whether I should try to adjust my schedule so as to function as a night owl for the next six weeks, or to try to find taped versions of the games and avoid score spoilers.  At any rate, let’s introduce the actors that will be helping to fill this football void for me starting tonight:

Pool A –  The “Give the Host Country a Boost” Group

Japan:  As is customary with the World Cup of any sport, the host country is given a generous draw so they have a decent chance of advancing at least past the group stage.  Japan is off to a great start, having beaten Russia 30-10 early this morning.  If they can get past either Ireland or Scotland, they will advance. I’d put their odds at 40%, with an immediate exit in the knockout stage.

Ireland:  Ireland has always had solid and rarely spectacular showings, and since I’ve done absolutely no research for this piece whatsoever I’m going to assume that will remain true.  I’d put their odds at 75% to advance.

Scotland: Scotland is right on par with Ireland in terms of quality (as far as I know), so I’m giving them a similar 75% chance to advance.  I’d expect either of them will win the group.

Samoa: You’d expect Samoa to have a stronger showing in international rugby, but they face the dual problems of having their best players siphoned off by New Zealand et. al, and drawing from an incredibly small population.  They’ll make things interesting, but I’m only giving them a 10% chance of advancing.

Russia: The vaunted Russian doping program really hasn’t taken hold with their rugby program yet, so their status here is as an also-ran.  They already dropped their opening fixture, so it’s safe to count them out already.

Pool B – The “Welcome to You’re Doom” Group

Canada: Doomed.

Italy: Doomed.

Namibia: Doomed.

New Zealand: Reigning champions of the last two World Cups.  They’re always good (scratch that, they’re always great), and this year is no different.  They got surprised by Australia in the final game of the Rugby Championship last month (a tournament of the top southern hemisphere teams; previously the Tri-Nations) but they are a lock to advance.

South Africa: The last country to win the World Cup prior to New Zealand’s current reign.  They managed to eke out a draw against the All-Blacks in the Rugby Championship and eventually took that trophy home, but I don’t think they’re likely to win the group here, but will advance with no difficulty otherwise.

Pool C – “Our Economies are About to Collapse Group”

Argentina: Argentina regularly fields very solid rugby teams, but they walked into some incredibly bad luck in their draw this year.  They’ll need to pull off an unlikely win against either England or France to advance, so I’ve got their chances at a slim 20% or so.

England: The only time I watched much of England’s play was in 2003 when they won the whole thing, and for some reason their style of play really bugged me.  I don’t know anything about the current team other than that they don’t suffer from the same hilarious curse that always strikes their soccer team.  They’ll do fine and I’d put them at a 90% chance of advancing, with a group win definitely in play.

France: France is similarly solid, and I’d give them a 90% chance of advancing as well.

Tonga: Generally on par with Samoa; a quality team but hamstrung by the country’s tiny size.

United States: Just utterly doomed by this draw.  The U.S. team lags pretty far behind in development and it’s going to be a humiliating couple of weeks for them here.

Pool D – The “Where it Gets Interesting” Group

Australia: A regular rugby powerhouse, Australia should pretty much breeze their way to a win of the group and into the knockout stage.

Fiji: Once again, not dissimilar to Samoa and Tonga (though probably a step down), but their draw gives them a much greater opportunity than the other two.  I’d put their chances of advancing at 40%.

Georgia: I thought I remember Georgia getting beat by scores of 100+ in previous years; they will just be happy to have the chance to try sushi and udon noodles and okonomiyaki.

Uruguay: I don’t think they are of any significance, but it sure would make things interesting if I were wrong.

Wales: Wales is a pretty decent team, and I think has a good (but not great) chance of edging out Fiji for the second spot in the knockout round.  I’d put them at 60% to advance.

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And that’s it!  I’ll probably be fiddling around tonight trying to find a livestream of the Australia-Fiji game, so I’ll see you in the open thread, if you’re awake!