Happy Spooky SZN! Halloween hasn’t fallen on a Sunday since 2010. Back then the Rams were in St. Louis, the Raiders were in Oakland, the Chargers were in San Diego, the Bills were 0 – 7, Calvin Megatron Johnson still played, and Brett Favre was still a thing. There were also a QB in Washington named Donovan McNabb, and one in Tennessee named Vince Young. Not sure how much football I’ll get in cuz back in 2010 I was not yet a father. I am one now who apparently has trick or treating things to go do. Maybe I’ll throw a cocktail of the week in a thermos and make sure my phone is fully charged. Anyway, enjoy the weekend and let’s try to make some $. Been a rough couple weeks in the DFS-sphere, so I could use a good one.

QB

Josh Allen – $8100  1x  $8800

I am probably not going here in cash as it could be a one sided game. That being said, the Dolphin offense and Tua have looked better, and divisional matchups can surprisingly become competitive. So for gpp I think you can go Allen. However, if this turns into a curbstomping like last time, then the Bills likely run out this game with Moss and Singletary.

Matt Stafford – $7600  1.1x  $8200

Over the last 5 games, Stafford is averaging 25.9 DK points per game and does not have a game where he has gone under 20. The concern I have here has to do with Stafford’s ceiling this week. Will the Texans be able to put up a few points against the Rams? I think Stafford will put up yardage and throw a TD or two, probably at least one to Kupp, but this could easily be a Darrell Henderson game.

Tom Brady – $7400  1.1x  $8300

The reasons for playing Brady should be obvious at this point. I’m not going to go here in cash games, but you cannot dismiss the idea that Tom will throw for over 300 yards and 4 TDs regardless of how tough the matchup is.

Jalen Hurts – $7200  1.2x  $8400

The Lions do not have a good pass defense and they do not have a good run defense. This is perfect for Hurts. Same as last week though, just don’t watch the game, otherwise you’ll have no idea how he scored over 20 DK points.

Joe Burrow – $7100  1.2x  $7800

Jameis Winston – $6000  1.4x  $7400

It’s tough to beat the Bucs on the ground, and you cannot keep pace with the Bucs on the ground. If the Saints want to compete, they’re going to have to pass, even if it comes in the form of checkdowns to Alvin. The Bucs secondary continues to deal with injuries. Throw in a little revenge game narrative and you have piqued my interest at this price. Only a gpp play for me, and if I do it I am pairing Winston with a 1% owned Tre’Quan Smith.

Tua Tagovailoa – $5500  1.5x  $7100

I love that his price has not increased here this week. Yes, the matchup is not good, but this does have the potential for a nice gamescript in which the Dolphins are forced to play from behind. Will Tua turn it over a couple times? Probably. But he will likely have to throw the ball 40 times in this game.

Teddy Bridgewater – $5400  1.5x  $7000

Not a cash play, but another gpp option here. It is kinda dependent on the WFT showing up, and just to remind everyone, they kicked a field goal when they were down by over 2 TDs with 2 and a half minutes left in the game last week. But WFT runs a cover 1 and Bridgewater is the 3rd highest ranked QB in fantasy points per dropback against cover 1. See below for more details about how this is a good situation for Teddy and his WRs.

RB

Derrick Henry – $8900  1x  $10500

There will be weeks, like last week, where he misses. But I can’t fault anyone for going this route vs the Colts whom he typically steam rolls.

Najee Harris – $7500  1.4x  $9000

There is no other back in the league, including Henry, who is on the field more for his team than Mr. Harris. The Pitt O-line isn’t great and the matchup isn’t all that good either, but the volume alone, in both running and passing, makes Harris viable.

D’Andre Swift – $7100  1.45x  $7900

Not crazy about the price increase, but Swift is proving to be the only reliable fantasy spot in the Lion offense. Similar to Kamara, I really only like Swift on DK because of his role in the passing game.

Joe Mixon – $6900  1.35x  $7600

I doubt I land here, but the juicy matchup against the Jets cannot be ignored.

James Robinson – $6600  1.5x  $8200

Speaking of juicy matchups, the Seahawks, though they looked better last week, give up points to pass catching RBs. While Robinson hasn’t been utilized in the passing game like in the past, he does appear to have solidified the RB1 role here.

Darrell Henderson – $6500  1.3x  $7700

Oh fuck me. I don’t want to put him in cash again, but I have to take the emotion out of it. Even though he wasn’t great last week, he still got 21 touches. Volume is key at the RB position, and Henderson is getting it right now. He is also getting a juicy matchup against the Texans. He is in play for sure.

Damien Harris – $6100  1.45x  $6900

Hit a home run last week with him at low ownership, and it’s looking like he’ll be low owned again at 3 – 5%. The Pats clearly want to run the ball, and yes, they are using multiple backs to do it. The good news is that the Chargers are giving up the most rushing yards per game, the highest yards per carry average, and the highest rate of 20+ yard runs. Harris has enough of a share of this backfield as the RB1 to hit value here. TDs are tough to predict, not sure he gets two again, but 100 yards rushing is definitely in play.

Khalil Herbert – $5400  1.75x  $6500

Da Bears got their asses handed to them by the Bucs last week, but still gave this guy 23 total touches for 100 yards rushing and 33 yards receiving. The Bucs are pretty damn good against the run. This just supports my belief that the Bears will continue to baby Fields this season. They aren’t going to ask him to do too much, so they are apparently going to ask their RBs to do the heavy lifting. This situation needs to be monitored though as I am getting a huge RBBC vibe as Williams and Montgomery come back into the fold, but Herbert looks like a good play this week at this price.

Eli Mitchell – $5400  1.5x  $5800

I think we know my stance with the SF run game. Whoever the starter is, I have interest in. For what this run game is capable, this price is too cheap. Mitchell, when healthy and the starter, which he will be on Sunday, averages 16 opportunities a game. He also has a 72% opportunity share, which means that he is on the field as the lone RB for that amount of time.

Michael Carter – $4900  1.8x  $5700

In dynasty leagues, I am huge on this guy. The Jets drafted him for a reason and HC Saleh and his assistants are from the San Francisco coaching tree, so their RB1 is going to be a stud in future years so long as they develop their offensive line. What is important to note for this weekend though is that Carter received 9 targets last week, the majority of which came after Mike White entered the game. Tevin Coleman is out for the Jets, as is Corey Davis. I also believe that the Jets will be playing from behind. Carter will be getting the majority of the carries, has a role in the passing game, and looks to be active regardless of game script.

WR

Cooper Kupp – $9000  1x  $9200

Honestly, 9K might not be enough. That being said, if he doesn’t go over 100 yards and at least 1 TD, then you’re effed. If he goes for 150 and 2 TD and you don’t have him, you’re likely effed.

Stefon Diggs – $8100  1.2x  $7300 / Cole Beasley – $4900  1.55x  $6100

Stefon Diggs is certainly in play, but not for me in cash at $8100 on DK. Over on Fanduel that is a different story with him being only $7300. With Dawson Knox out, Beasley is in line for more work. Additionally, I’m on record as believing the Dolphins will be more competitive this time around. I can see a scenario where both of these guys feast.  In gpp, I will also consider Emmanuel Sanders.

Mike Williams – $7700  1.45x  $7600

The X in this former Saints OC offense is indeed Mike Williams. On SuperDraft his multiplier remains too high and almost an autolock there. I think the Pats show up tomorrow and give Herbert and Co. a run for their money, but I still think Williams has a good day against this secondary.

Ja’Marr Chase – $7500  1.25x  $8200 / Tee Higgins – $5200  1.55x  $6300

Speaking of Xs, Higgins is the X for the Bengals and is averaging more targets than Chase; of course that is helped by the 15 that Higgins saw last week though. Both of these WRs should face minimal resistance producing against the Jets’ CBs Hall and Eichols. Hall has a 93.0 QB Rating when targeted, and Eichols is ranked 96 of 112 CBs by Pro Football Focus. The Jets also have a top-five rate in pass plays of 15 yards or over allowed this year, which is good news for Chase. The only reason the Jets aren’t like the worst vs WRs is because teams have run at will on them.

Deebo Samuel – $7400  1.3x  $7800

Samuel is seeing a similar target share as Cooper Kupp in SF’s offense. In fact, he is 2nd in the NFL in target share, getting over 35% of the 49er passes thrown his way. There’s a bright green 29th against the position next to the Bears, but do keep in mind that they just faced Tompa Bay.

Mike Evans – $7000  1.35x  $7500/ Chris Godwin – $6400  1.4x  $7200

I’m not crazy about Evans because 1. He typically doesn’t duplicate awesome performances, which is also called chasing, and 2. Lattimore has limited him well in the past. That being said, I could see Evans catching a TD or 2 in the redzone, but if Gronk is back, he could eat into those opportunities. But the man who I think gets this team up and down the field this week is Godwin. Could be a big day for him in terms of receptions, especially because AB is out.

AJ Brown – $6900  1.4x  $7600

Julio Jones is likely out this week, so most of the passing targets should funnel to Brown. When Brown plays full games, he averages 8 targets per game and 12 fantasy points. The Colts secondary is allowing the 8th most fantasy points to perimeter WRs. Brown will spend the majority of his afternoon against CB Rodgers who is filling in for an injured Ya-Sin. Rodgers is 56 pounds lighter than Brown.

Diontae Johnson – $6700  1.4x  $7500

Too. Cheap. As mentioned earlier, he is one of two players being consistently utilized in Pittsburgh’s offense. He has a 29% target share and receives at least 10 targets a game. In my initial builds, I can fit both DJ and Harris easily…and that’s a big no-no in cash…but not in gpp!

Courtland Sutton – $6400  1.4x  $7100 / Jerry Jeudy – $4900  N/A (good job SuperDraft)  $6000

The only thing that gives me pause here with Sutton is the potential return of Jerry Jeudy. He will run routes form the the slot this week against CB Fuller, who, well, sucks at football. Pretty much every other slot receiver (Allen, Shepard, Hill, Beasley) has had a day against him. Fuller is allowing a 70% catch rate and WFT is allowing the 2nd most fantasy points per game to slot receivers. Sutton should be fine here as well, but I feel his ceiling, compared to his price, is now limited. Both Sutton’s and Jeudy’s ownership numbers look low as well, which makes them a nice gpp play. Pay attention though, Jeudy has yet to be activated off IR.

Devonta Smith – $5500  1.6x  $6200

The Lions are surrendering the 7th most fantasy points per game to receivers over the past month and have allowed every team’s top receiver (Kupp, Chase, Jefferson, and Mooney…yes, I know that creates a debate about who the Bears top receiver is but it works for my argument so accept it) during this span to hit at least 97 yards receiving. They also let Adams have over 100 in September so the point is that the CBs are bad. Oruwariye and Jacobs, who I’ve written about and targeted before, are both allowing over a 70% catch rate when the ball is thrown their way. In cash, and even gpp, combining Hurts with Smith makes a ton of sense this week.

Michael Pittman – $5300  1.65x  $6600

As long as I don’t play him in DFS, he will smash. Superstitions aside, if TY Hilton plays, Pittman’s targets will decrease. KC’s offense shit the bed last week, but I’m not sold on the idea that the Titan secondary has figured things out. CB Jenkins is still  allowing a 71% completion rate and has allowed the 10th most receiving yards to opposing WRs. The Titan secondary is banged up and something named Greg Mabin is starting at CB as well. He’s a 2017 undrafted free agent who is on his 5th team. This game projects to be close in spread and have an over/under of 50. As long as KY…I mean TY is out…I’m comfortable starting Pittman. UPDATE: Hilton looks like he is going to play. I am willing to go Pittman in gpp, but not in cash games.

TE

Kyle Pitts – $6300  1x  $6800

I think we’re going to have to get used to seeing his name and high priced tag in DFS for years to come. Dude’s a physical specimen and it has been just a matter of time until he started seeing the kind of volume he has received in the last 3 games, which is an average of 9 targets a game. He was actually lining up as a WR in the last game. If that continues then he will eventually challenge Kelce as the cheat code at the TE position.

Mike Gesicki – $5000  1.1x  $6300

Only using him in my Dolphin/Bill stacks.

Dallas Goedert – $4700  1.05x  $5900

With Ertz gone, it is officially Goedert’s position. He ran all the routes and saw all the targets at the TE position last week. He didn’t really have a good game as he only saw 5 targets and 3 catches, but he still put up 12 DK points. As we have established, the Lions aren’t good. I probably don’t land here in cash, but he’s a gpp option if using Hurts.

Rob Gronkowski – $4600  1.15x  $6500

I’m only using him in my Brady stacks for the chance that he catches a TD or 2.

Hunter Henry – $4200  1.45x  $5500

He has a TD in 4 straight weeks, which is unsustainable. However, fire up the revenge narrative here for Henry against the Chargers. Additionally, the Chargers aren’t great against the position and Jonnu Smith is out.

RIcky Seals-Jones – $3800  1.75x  $5400

Since Thomas went on IR, RSJ has averaged 7.3 targets a game and 5 receptions. His likelihood of going 2.7x this salary is pretty good, even with shitty Heinicke throwing to him.

CJ Uzomah – $3700  1.5x  $5700

This is my guess has to who the chalkiest TE of week 8 is going to be.

Dan Arnold – $2800  2x  $4900

If you need a pay down spot this week (spoiler alert I do), especially at the TE position that has no Kelce or Waller, then I submit Dan Arnold for consideration. If you discount the first week he joined the Jags, which was a short week because the Jags played on Thursday night, then in Arnold’s two games with the Jags he has run 55 routes, had 13 targets, caught 8 balls, and put up 91 yards. At $2800, it will not take much for him to hit value.

DEF

Los Angeles Rams – $5100  $5000

Another week, another layup matchup for the Rams D. $5100 is just too much for my blood at this spot.

Cincinnati Bengals – $3600  $4900

Something named Mike White is the starting QB for the hapless Jets this week. If he doesn’t start, old man Flacco is in there at QB.

San Francisco 49ers – $3500  $4600

Justin. Fields.

Buffalo Bills – $3300  $$4700

I actually thought the Bills would be priced up higher than they are. I do think they give up a few points this week, but I also think they cause a few turnovers.

Seattle Seahawks – $2800  $4300

They actually looked improved vs the Saints last week. Now they get the Jaguars. I’m not expecting anything earth-shattering here, but they are a little underpriced for the matchup in my opinion.

WFT – $2100  $3400

Denver isn’t really an explosive offense, and though the WFT defense hasn’t been great, they also haven’t been terrible for fantasy purposes. They still have a defensive line that is capable of getting to the QB. In the last 4 weeks they have put up 7, 8, 5, and 6 fantasy points. An output like that at this price is perfectly fine for cash games.

Where I am at

on DK

Hurts for me at QB.

Herbert is a priority.

I need to decide between DJ and Harris.

Probably paying down at TE to include some other high priced options.

FD differences

Hurts costs too much here, so if I’m going to pay up I might as go all the way to Allen.

Diggs is too cheap here.

SD differences

Gpp

I’m stacking the Dolphins/Bills game, the WFT/Denver game, and the TB/NO game. I’ll have a Hurts/Smith/Goedert combo that I will run back with Swift. I also will have a Rams passing attack lineup.