I know many of you watch the Manning Cast on ESPN2 for Monday Night Football. You may already know, but in case you don’t, the current NFL players who are guests on it appear to be cursed. Every current player who has joined the Mannings (Russell Wilson, Travis Kelce, Gronk, Stafford, and Brady) has had the misfortune of losing in their next game. What does this have to do with DFS? Probably nothing as many of those guests had decent to good fantasy outings despite their team’s loss, but I needed an intro so there you go. Beware the Jags Bills and Bills’ fans. Beware.

On to the players!

QB

Josh Allen – $8200  1x  $9000

I know. The irony of kicking this thing off with Josh Allen is not lost on me. However, there have been 2 times this year when Allen has scored less than 20 DK points and that was during weeks 1 and 2. Since then he is averaging 32.58 DK points per game. Last week he put up 29.5 and that was with the Bills taking the first half of the game off. The Jags are not good, and the Bills have arguably the best offense in football. Do I believe in curses? No. Is Allen the safest play on the board this week? Yes.

Patrick Mahomes – $7800  1.1x  $8500

Two weeks ago the Titans ruined the Chiefs day and when everyone was watching on Monday, Mahomes looked under duress, impatient, and like he was trying to play basketball at times. I am not going here in cash, but I don’t know how you ignore Mahomes when he gets a price decrease and his ownership numbers drop. He is capable of breaking any slate, so though I won’t be going here in cash, he is a gpp option for sure.

Lamar Jackson – $7300  1.15x  $8300

Here is my likely cash games QB for week 9. Jackson has run for 50+ rushing yards in 6 of 7 games this year, and should be able to find both running and passing success against the Minnesota Vikings who mostly use cover 2 and cover 3, both of which Lamar excels against. Legs and arm are in play for Lamar. Andrews is facing tough coverage from LB Kendricks, so it’s likely to happen via the WRs this week.

Justin Herbert – $7000  1.15x  $7600

Eagles employ cover 2 and cover 6. Herbert inflicts pain on both. I love this play because many think the Eagles defense is good after their performance last week, and to be fair

they have been, but Herbert, based off his history, should be able to pick them apart on Sunday.

Dak Prescott – $6900  1.1x  $7900

I think this game has some serious shootout potential. The Cowboys are supposedly facing a tough defense this week. A look closer suggests something different. The Broncos just lost CB Callahan, and he holds this secondary together. 5th round pick Sterns is set to replace him. The Dallas O-line is healthy and has made some serious improvements, which was visible in their ability to keep Cooper Rush protected last week. Should be all systems go for the Dallas offense as long as they stay healthy.

Derek Carr – $5900  1.3x  $7500

What a shit show of a season for the Raiders. When Gruden left the team, Vegas continued to play good football. I expect them to act similarly in this situation and for Carr to continue to act like the respected professional he is. In the two games without Gruden, Carr has put up 24.5 and 23 DK points. The Gmen employ a rotating scheme of coverages that Carr should continue to be efficient against.

Tua Tagovailoa – $5800  1.5x $7300

I actually think both QBs from this game are in play on Sunday. If stacking Tua, then Waddle and Gesicki make sense. Though I haven’t written him up below, because I am not using him, Gaskin could be utilized significantly against the Texans.

Teddy Bridgewater – $5300  1.5x  $7100

As I mentioned vs WFT, Teddy is one of the better QBs vs. cover 1. The Boys run cover 1 at a rate that is 3rd highest in the league. Dallas allows the 4th most passing yards per game (278.1), 11th highest yards per catch  (7.35), and 11th most fantasy points per game to QBs (19.3). One of my Achilles’s heels is not always paying attention to team records. Well, Denver was basically in a must win situation last week and they got it done. They are in a must win again if they have any aspirations of making the playoffs. Remember that Sam Darnold had one of the best QB days of the season against this team.

Tyrod Taylor – $5000  1.5x  $5900

This might be my favorite gpp play. In 6 career starts vs the Dolphins, Tyrod has completed 73% of his passes, has 10 TDs, and 0 INTs. While the Dolphins are obviously a different team than in years past, their cover 1 scheme is the same. The Dolphins are giving up 340 passing yards and 2.5 passing TDs per game over the last 4 weeks. Tyrod is also a willing runner. Not a cash game play at all, but he’ll likely carry very low ownership in gpps.

Jordan Love – $4300  1.85x  $6000

I don’t really like this guy and there is no way I am starting him in cash, but damn $4300 leaves so much room for activities at other areas in your lineup. It’s likely that Love only gets something like 15 DK points, but there is the possibility that he can achieve 20.

If Love can put up something like 20, and the top QBs like Allen, Mahomes and Lamar stay under 30, then there is certainly a chance that gpp winning lineup will have Love as its QB. As a reminder, the Chiefs D is terrible.

RB

Alvin Kamara – $8200  1x  $9400

Great matchup against a porous rush defense. Atlanta struggles against pass catching backs, allowing an 80% catch rate and the 12th most receptions. The only part I don’t like about that is something named Trevor Siemian who is starting at QB for New Orleans. Kamara should be fine here regardless considering his role and the matchup though.

Austin Ekeler – $7900  1.1x  $9000

Or “Other Alvin Kamara.” Ekeler is receiving full RB1 work, and about 6 receptions a game. The Chargers also have a healthy run block advantage against the Eagles.

Zeke Elliott – $7000  1.15x  $8200

With a healthy O-line, Zeke is in play. Denver has allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to RBs over the last 4 weeks. Pollard does come in to spell Zeke from time to time, but Zeke is the RB1, receives all the goal line work and is involved in the pass game too.

Cordarelle Patterson – $6300  1.45x  $7000

He’s a $6300 WR1 listed as an RB. I’m not doing it cuz I trust Ryan and the Falcons as far as I can throw them.

Devontae Booker – $5900  1.5x  $6300

Since taking the lead following Barkley’s injury, Booker has only returned 3.4 yards per carry in return for his 57 carries. However, he has been able to supplement that low ground efficiency with a 14/124/1 receiving line on 17 targets. The Raiders defense has been vulnerable against both rushing and pass catching RBs.

Elijah Mitchell – $5800  1.4x  $7100

The Niners have the 6th highest rate of offensive snaps dedicated toward their ground game. Mitchell, the starting RB, has been fed with 75% and 69% of that volume over the last 2 weeks.

Darrell Williams – $5700  1.55x  $6700

Something named Derrick Gore magically appeared in the KC backfield and started carrying the ball on Monday night. It even scored a TD. That being said, Williams still received a majority of the snaps and carries, and he had all the receiving work for the Chiefs. If you think the Chiefs play with a lead, then Gore can be considered in gpp since he is priced so low.

WR

Devante Adams – $8200  1x  $9000

Sure, I like him less with Love in at QB as I think Adams’s TD upside is less, but I still think the targets and receptions will be there against the KC secondary, they just might be more of the 6 yard catch variety.

Tyreek Hill – $7900  1x  $8500

Tyfreek has had double-digit targets in 4 of his last 5 games. Hill splits time between outside and slot. CB Alexander is out and CB King has multiple injuries, so Hill should eat. Current slot CB Sullivan is allowing a 74.2% catch rate.

Deebo Samuel – $7800  1.15x  $8000

Dude’s matchup proof at this point. I heard someone compare him to a combination of Percy Harvin and Tim Brown. He can torch you by catching the deep ball or by taking a WR screen pass 84 yards.

Stefon Diggs – $7700  1.1x  $7600 / Emmanuel Sanders – $5600  1.6x  $6500 / Cole Beasley – $5400  1.5x  $6300

Diggs is priced a little high for cash games and his CB matchup is up in the air. Alignment numbers suggest that Diggs will face off against 2nd round pick Campbell. If I’m a coach, I don’t leave my rookie exposed to man coverage on Diggs…that would likely be a blood bath. So I expect Diggs will face CB Griffin instead. That matchup doesn’t scare me at all as Griffin’s numbers are not good, so Diggs is someone easily used in stacks with Allen. Sanders intrigues me because he got a dud last week, not a single catch. Law of averages suggests that will change, and if he is going against Campbell, the veteran should be able to teach the rook a few things. Beasley got in a limited practice on Friday after not participating in practice all week and he’ll get CB Herndon who is allowing 95%!!!!! of passes sent his way to be completed. This could easily be another high reception day for Beasley. As always, inactives will have to be monitored, but all three of these guys have a chance to eat this week. Gabe Davis even becomes an interesting play if Beasley is inactive.

Justin Jefferson – $7500  1.05x  $7600 / Adam Thielen – $6900  1.25x  $7400

I’m Hooked on a Thielen this week.

Thielen is going to be low owned and facing a cover 1 D, which he has thrived against over the past 3 seasons. Thielen is playing real well right now, and has been beating tough cover matchups in recent games. The Ravens D has not been playing well. Thielen will likely get CB Humphries and Jefferson CB Averett, who is replacing the injured Peters.

Cedee Lamb – $7200  1.3x  $7500 / Amari Cooper – $5700  1.25x  $6900

Denver uses a combination of cover 1 and cover 6. Guess what? Lamb eats against cover 6, and Cooper eats against cover 1. As stated earlier, CB Callahan will not be on the field on Sunday, and that is a huge loss for Denver. I think it’s tough to go with either in cash games because there are so many ways this game could play out, but the gpp potential in stacking this game is legit.

Keenan Allen – $6700  1.1x  $7000

The Eagles DEF is trying to limit big plays, and it is working. Philly ranks top 5 in lowest rate of explosive pass plays allowed, but they lead the league in highest completion rate allowed, which is 74.3%.  Allen is averaging about 10 targets per game and leads the team with a 26% target share. I know have been big on Mike Williams this season, but he has a tough matchup against CB Slay, who is having a bounce back season.

Brandin Cooks – $6100  1.4x  $6800

If starting Tyrod in gpp, then Cooks is almost a necessary stack with him. Cooks has been lining up all over the Texan formation so he’ll be put into a variety of scenarios that should equal production. Cooks has a 29% target share, and the Dolphins are givng up production in the passing game.

Marquise Brown – $6000  1.35x  $7700

Hollywood faces CB Breeland this week. I really don’t think I need to say anything else after that. I do have interest in Bateman – $4000  1.7x  $5400, but he popped up on the injury list on Friday.

Kadrius Toney – $5200  1.75x  $5700

Toney ranks real high against cover 3 schemes. He has a 41% target share against cover 3 and ranks high in a bunch of other categories that will bore the shit out of you. His likely matchup is against CB Hobbs who does give me some pause as he looks pretty talented and hasn’t been targeted that much. Toney also gets injured pretty easily it seems, but the numbers are real enticing here.

Jerry Jeudy – $5000  1.55x  $5800 / Tim Patrick – $4700  1.55x  $5600

Not on Sutton this week as he will draw coverage from CB Diggs. Patrick will likely go up againt CB Brown. Patrick, who is 6’5, has a height advantage over the 5’11 Brown. Jeudy will be running around a set of LBs who have poor numbers defending the middle of the field.

Hunter Renfrow -$4800  1.55x  $5600 / Bryan Edwards – $4100  1.7x  $5300 / Zay Jones – $3000  2x  $4800

Renfrow’s too cheap and a likely lock for me in cash games. I liked this play even before the unfortunate news about Henry Ruggs came out. Renfrow has a 21% target share, gets 7.3 targets per game, and has put up double digit DK points in 6 out 7 games this year. Edwards or Jones, on the other hand, should benefit without Ruggs on the field in terms of one of them, if not both, being the downfield threats now. I don’t know which one of them will be the deep threat, so that relegates them to gpp land.

TE

Travis Kelce – $7000  1x  $7800

Not going here in cash for right now as there is suddenly more value at the position. That being said, this is a get right spot for the entire Chiefs offense with Fraudgers out. A get right spot would include a 20 point outing from Mr. Kelce.

Mike Gesicki – $4900  1.5x  $6500

I initially thought this guy would be chalk at the TE position this week, but a basement salary option opened up (see below). Gesicki’s target share, price and matchup all look great.

Dalton Schultz – $4800  1.65x  $6100

With Gallup needing another week, Schultz remains in play. Dak does like finding him in the middle of the field. Definitely not going here though as the presence of Jarwin steals opportunities from Schultz.

Dallas Goedert – $4500  1.45x  $6200

Looks like the only guy consistently catching passes in this offense.

Dan Arnold – $3400  2x  $5100

Same holds true from last week and the matchup is better this time around.

Albert Okwuegbunam – $2600  2x  $4500 

I’m hearing this dude’s name being bandied about all over the DFS-sphere since Fant is on the C-19 list. Mr. O does have some nice numbers against cover 1. He’ll likely be a chalky punt at the TE position this week.

DEF

New England Patriots – $4100  $4800

The NE defense is good. I wonder what this team would look like with a Hall of Fame QB on the offensive side.

San Francisco 49ers – $2800  $3500

If Kyler is out, then it’s a green light for the Niners D. The only problem is that this is a 4:25 game, so if Kyler ends up playing I’ll likely have to pivot to the Eagles or Chiefs, which is less than ideal.

Carolina Panthers – $2600  $4200

Since NE does not have a Hall of Fame QB, the opposing D in this game is certainly in play.

Where I am at:

On DK

Likely going with Lamar at QB, Zeke at RB, Renfrow and Allen are priorities at WR. It’s Panthers or 49ers at D for me.

I am a little behind this week and do not know what I will change on SD and FD yet.

GPP

I’ll be stacking Herbert with one or two of his pass catchers, but I’m not sure the Eagles will stay in this game. I like the Boys/Broncos environment. I’ll have Mahomes with a couple of his guys I didn’t write up Hardman, but he will be in mix for gpp. I will also be stacking the Dolphins and Texans.