This looks like a chalky week in DFS cash games. As a reminder, chalk = highly owned. It also looks like a week where RB will make or break you. If you have watched Beautiful Mind,

(wait…is that the right movie? Whatever) or read anything about Game Theory, then know it is alive and well this week. If we all try and go for the blonde, then the majority of us will fail. If we can figure out where our competition will go, then we likely get laid….

For a more detailed explanation of what I mean, skip to the D’Ernest Johnson writeup.

In any event, here are the players I am considering this week…

QB

Josh Allen – $7900  1x  $8700

A good DFS rule, which you have heard me say before, is not to chase previous week’s performances. Another good one is to not over analyze poor performances from the previous week either. In reviewing what happened to the Bills vs the Jags, Urban Meyer and company basically put the Bills in a scenario where they dared the Bills offense to run the ball. Instead of doing that, the Bills never pivoted off their passing attack, only handing the ball off 9 times. Funny, Bill Bellichick and Bill Parcells did a similar thing to the Bills in Super Bowl XXV. Those who don’t learn the mistakes of the past are doomed to repeat them. In any event, I expect the Bills to correct themselves against the Jets. Not going to use Allen in cash, but a 30+ fantasy performance out of Allen would not surprise me.

Tom Brady – $7600  1.15x  $8300

We are up to 25 passing TDs through 8 games for the Bucs. There are 9 games left on the schedule and Brady needs 31 more to eclipse Peyton Manning’s single season record, which translates to about 3.5 per game. The WFT secondary has not been good, so it’s wheels up for Tom to pick em apart. This should be a solid test for the Bucs O-line though, as WFT can get home to the QB.

Justin Herbert – $7300  1.15x  $8000

As I wrote up last week, Herbert has traditionally found success vs Cover 2 and Cover 6 defenses. What does Minnesota use? If you read my thoughts on Lamar last week, you know it’s Cover 2 and Cover 6. For reference, here is a visual of Herbert when he sees Cover 2 and 6:

I love when there are multiple layers to a joke. Anyway, Minnesota is also hurting in their secondary. CB Dantzler has an ankle injury. CB Breeland has a groin injury and sucks anyway. CB Hand also has an ankle injury.

Dak Prescott – $6900  1.1x  $8100

Remember what I said about Josh Allen? The same holds true for Dak and the Cowboy offense this week. Dak did not look good last Sunday, and he still put up 19.9 DK points. I think it’s important to remember that it was his first game back after a 2 game layoff, and it sort of took him a bit to get up to speed. The Falcons defense is not good and can be had both on the ground and through the air.

Carson Wentz – $5900  1.45x  $7500

At this price and in this matchup, I expect Wentz to be a fairly popular play on Sunday. The question will become what part of the Colts offense do you want to invest in this weekend? The Jags showed us something against the Bills, but the Colts are not the same team as Buffalo. They should find success, it just depends on where the majority of their offense will come from, the ground or the air?

RB

CMC – $8400  1x  $9000

I am not going to go here in cash because of something named PJ Walker, who is starting at QB for the Panthers this week. However, CMC had over 100 yards last week vs the Pats when he was receiving “limited” usage. Fully armed and operational CMC should eclipse 100 total yards. If he gets multiple scores on top of that, then he can possibly be found in GPP winning lineups.

Jonathan Taylor – $8100  1.05x  $9400

DO. NOT. CHASE. Taylor went banana cakes last time he played. Also, he’s been, like, the best fantasy asset from a seasonal perspective this year. He’ll probably go top 5 in next year’s seasonal drafts. Is he in a good spot this week? Yes. Will he go north of 20 fantasy points this week? Probably. Will he be chalk? He certainly could be in cash games, but I implore you to understand that Taylor is unlikely to put up 37 DK points again. He will likely go north of 20 and from that perspective it’s fine if you want to roster him, just don’t expect a repeat of last matchup.

Dal Cook – $8100  1.1x  $8500

Here are the recent amount of rushing yards given up by the Chargers:

Week 9 – 176 to the Eagles (including 71 to Jordan Howard)

Week 8 – 142 to the Patriots

Week 7 – 187 to the Ravens

Week 6 – 230 to the Browns

Sensing a theme? The good thing about the Vikings is that they largely feature one RB. We’ve been over how the Vikings scheme features a solid running game. In good matchups, I am interested in the Vikings RB1. It is also important to note that the Chargers have multiple injuries on defense, particularly in their secondary. There is real potential of a shootout here.

Najee Harris – $7900  1.15x  $9400

Despite an underwhelming performance from his fantasy standards, as well as other backs eating into his timeshare a bit, Harris still had 25 overall touches against Chicago on Monday night. This week he gets like the worst team in the league, especially against the run. There is some potential weather in play in Pittsburgh this week, so that might make deciding between Harris and DJ in cash a bit easier.

Zeke Elliot – $7000  1.15x  $8000

Things went about as bad for the Cowboys as they could have expected last week, AND Zeke got dinged up and had to leave the game but came back, AND he still put up double digit DK points. LT Tyron Smith was out last week, and I didn’t think that would matter because backup Tackle La’el Collins is decent in his own right. Smith is out again this week FYI. Zeke still is the RB1 and still receives the goal line touches. Don’t chase, and don’t think outliers are the norm.

Aaron Jones – $6900  1.05x  $8200

This is dependent on Fraudgers playing because, if Love goes, I have zero interest here. Additionally, AJ Dillon is getting more involved than I would like him to be to consider Jones at this price in cash, but in GPP Jones is in play vs one of the worst run Ds in the league.

Cordarelle Patterson – $6600  1.35x  $7800

I think he’s fine to keep playing in GPPs, but this is not a cash play for me. There are too many ways that CPatt can disappoint and not achieve 2.7x ROI, but he can also smash if he catches at TD or 2. Just remember….Catches. He’s a WR who just happens to be lining up in the backfield.

JD McKissic – $5200  1.55x  $5400

Mr. McKissic is really only useful if you get the right game script, and that is one in which WFT is trailing, and oh by the way, ACTUALLY TRYING TO WIN, instead of kicking field goals when they are down by multiple scores and have 2 and a half minutes on the clock. #NeverForget. Not at all a cash play, but McKissic can get up over 15 DK points if he gets the right trip.

D’Ernest Johnson – $4700  1.55x  $5400

Nick Chubb AND Demetric Felton hit the Covid-19 list early in the week, and both are out. Johnson is the decision in DFS cash game this week. Do we play an extremely chalky Johnson against a Bill Bellichick, who likes to take away the opposing team’s strength, defense? The Browns strength is their run game. As the week has gone on, much has changed and there are now cheaper plays listed below. Welcome to the game-within-the-game. What we need to decide this week is which pay-up-RB to play and which pay-down-RB we want to play. Conversely, we could play multiple low end RBs, on a week that has multiple high end RBs in good spots, and then go high end WRs….OR we could use multiple high end RBs and go low end WRs. We can also play 3 RBs this week…this is the game this week. I am concerned that Johnson will be north of 50% owned in cash games, perhaps even north of 70%. I hate eating that kind of a chalk on an unproven player, going up against a good defensive schemer. That being said, if he has over 100 yards and a score, or multiple scores, he will be a must have. From a GPP perspective, don’t play him, he’ll be too high owned. In cash….that is the decision this week.

Mark Ingram – $4500  1.6x  $5500

Here is the first of the other low end options who are now available to us. Alvin Kamara was ruled out Friday. Ingram’s snaps increased in Week 9, and his touches went up too. The Saints are in the playoff hunt and need a win here (look at me paying attention to records). It wouldn’t be surprising at all if they gave Ingram 20+ touches on Sunday. Though he’s a little older, he can handle RB1 duties for one week.

Brandon Bolden – $4400  2x  $5100

Another low priced option. Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson didn’t practice at all this week because both are in concussion protocol. Now they still could be cleared by Sunday morning so the situation needs monitoring, but it’s possible Bolden ends up being the lead back in an offense that wants to run the ball.

WR

Devante Adams – $7900  1x  $8700

Again, contingent upon Fraudgers coming back. He as a 27 lbs advantage over any Seattle CB, and we get him at a discount this week because of his “poor performances” over the last 3 weeks. He’s a $9000 receiver priced at $7900.

AJ Brown – $7800  1.3x  $7600

The price is definitely a little high for me this week, but Brown is now THE weapon in Tennessee. We didn’t see a single RB step in to take over the Henry role. I do think Brown will be low owned because of the CB Lattimore factor, but he isn’t going to be covering Brown the entire time. Lattimore has been staying to one side of the field, and Brown has been alternating between the left and the right side. I think the Titan offense will find ways to get Brown the ball this week.

Chris Godwin – $7100  1.35x  $7800 / Mike Evans – $6900  1.25x  $7400 / Tyler Johnson – $3300  1.8x  $5100

Godwin didn’t practice all week until he got in some limited work on Friday. I’m guessing he’s going to play. If he were out, then Johnson becomes an interesting option here. In any event, Mike Evans is the guy in cash games this week. He will be chalky, but he likely finds the endzone at least once in this matchup in which Brady should have his way. CB St-Juste is not good and has been failing in coverage this year, and the one on the other side, CB Jackson, isn’t much better. With Gronk out, Evans is the redzone target, and he should have several opportunities on Sunday.

CeeDee Lamb – $7000 1.3x  $7700

I have in no way changed my position that this guy might be discussed as WR1 in fantasy drafts next August. Lamb’s recent outings have not been good, including last week, but he was targeted 9 times despite having only 2 grabs. Atlanta is allowing the 9th most fantasy points per game to perimeter receivers this season and Lamb will spend much of this matchup against CB Moreau, who has allowed 5 TDs in 8 games. Pro Football Focus has him as their 90th ranked CB (out of 117). I like that Lamb’s Week 9 outing will likely keep his ownership numbers low, which makes him a terrific GPP play.

DK Metcalf – $6800  1.2x  $8000

CB Alexander is still banged up, so CBs King and Douglas will go up against Metcalf. King has been ineffective and Douglas is on his 3rd team in 3 years. Metcalf has a 27% target share and gets RW3 back this week. Not sure why he’s the second most expensive WR on FanDuel though.

Diontae Johnson – $6800  1.35x  $7400

The Lions secondary sucks dicks. DJ has a 29% target share and has gone over 15 Dk points in Every. Single. Game. this year besides week one in which he scored 14.6, and last Monday night when he scored 11.7. There is some potential weather in this game. It shouldn’t affect DJ and the Steelers too much, but it may make him less safe for cash games.

Michael Pittman – $6300  1.5x  $7200

Pittman is averaging 7.9 targets a game and has scored in 4 of his last 5 games. Both Jags perimeter CBs, Griffin and Campbell, are giving up high completion rates over 69%

to opposing receivers with Campbell notably giving up the 7th most receiving yards among all cornerbacks. Additionally, Pittman has a 35 lbs advantage over all Jacksonville CBs this week. I’m not convinced the Jags Defense is good after they dared the Bills to run. The Colts will gladly run on the Jags, so the tough part this week will be deciding between Pittman or Taylor. On SuperDraft, Pittman will be chalky.

Jerry Jeudy – $5300  1.5x  $6200

Jeudy only played 60% of Denver’s offensive snaps against Dallas, but still had 8 targets for 6 catches and 69

yards, and he now leads the Broncos with a 23% target share (3 game sample size). As I said last week in my blurb about Keenan Allen, the Eagles are limiting big plays down the field but giving up receptions and yards on short to intermediate routes, and Allen was successful in that environment. The majority of Jeudy’s routes are of the short to intermediate variety and he will spend most of his day in the slot against CB Maddox, who is allowing a 75% catch rate and is working through a knee injury. Jeudy is close to a lock for me in cash this week.

Cole Beasley – $5200  1.5x  $6100

Since Knox went down in Week 6, we’ve seen Beasley average 11 targets, 8.3 catches, and 77 yards per game. He gets a Jets secondary that has rookie CB Carter as the slot corner. Carter has allowed a 75% catch rate. This being said, Knox returned to practice in full on Thursday, which takes Beasley as a cash play away, but GPP is still an option.

Jarvis Landry – $5100  1.45x  $6100 / Donovan Peoples-Jones – $4800  1.8x  $5600

If you are on the Johnson Fade Brigade, then I humbly submit Landry for consideration for 2 reasons:

1. He did fuck all last week so should carry low ownership.
2. If the Pats take Johnson away, the Browns will be forced to throw. Landry is their WR1.

Peoples-Jones, aka The People’s Court,

on the other hand, is the new OBJ in terms of Cleveland’s deep threat and can be used in GPP if you think he catches another TD or 2. He looks to be 1 – 3% owned this week. The Pats employ Cover 1, and People’s Court is one of the best fantasy producers in the league against Cover 1. He’s close to a lock on SD for me.

TE

Pat Freiermuth – $3900  1.95x  $5100

I’m not crazy that Ebron is going to be active for this game, but Freiermuth looks like he is now the TE1 in this offense. The loss of Juju Smith-Schuster has led to more snaps and targets for Freiermuth. I think he will be chalky after his 2 TD performance on national TV, and I’m not into chasing. Definite chalk on SuperDraft.

Dan Arnold – $3500  1.7x  $5100

This guy is quickly becoming the surest thing in the Jacksonville offense. Since Week 5, Arnold is averaging 7.5 targets, 5 catches, and 55 yards per game. If we take the averages, that’s 10.5 DK points per week and over the 2.7 ROI threshold we need. He hasn’t scored a TD yet, so that should happen at some point. Regardless, at his price point and role in this offense, he is one of the few TEs we need who are not TD reliant. Additionally, the Colts are allowing 16.6 fantasy points per game to opposing TEs.

That’s really it for me at the TE position this week. Others are in play, but my builds are such that I want to pay up at QB, RB and WR so I am going to have to find value somewhere.

DEF

Pittsburgh Steelers – $4100  $4900

There is weather in the forecast for the Pittsburgh area. Early in the week they were using the S word, but now it looks like PM light rain. In any event, the Lions are not good and the Pitt defense is.

Buffalo Bills – $4000  $5000

Do I really have to analyze this one?

Denver Broncos – $3200  $4000

No Von Miller? No Bryce Callahan? No problem…apparently. The Bronco defense played inspired football last week and shutdown a capable offense in the Cowboys. They only put up 7 DK points because they really are not great at causing turnovers, but in terms of a safe pick for the dollar value, you could do worse. There is a new problem here though, and that is CB Surtain, who may miss the game due to injury.

Tennessee Titans – $2600  $4100

Don’t look now, but the Titans DEF has put up double digit DK points in 3 straights weeks. That’s against offenses named Chiefs, Colts, and Rams. Kamara is Questionable for this game. The Saints also don’t really have a QB so…

Where I’m at

On DK

Herbert or Brady for me in cash.

To Johnson or not to Johnson? I may just have to eat some chalk here. Cook is a priority add.

Evans and Jeudy for me at WR

gonna pay down at TE

Titans are my cash game DEF

SD Differences

People’s Court!

Brandon Bolden is very tempting

GPP

Don’t play D’Ernest here. I’ll have a lot of People’s Court. There are two main routes for me at GPP this week and that is stacking the Tompa Bay Buccaneers and the Vikings v Chargers game.