Hey all,

I hope you had a nice Thanksgiving. I didn’t play Waller or Swift all that heavy on Thursday, so that was nice. The Vegas/Dallas game did end up blowing up, so I simply did not have enough pieces from that game in order to really do some damage. I did have a decent day on SuperDraft where I finished in the top 100 of a 5,750 person contest.

As I have said, it’s likely just GPP for me going forward. GPP is a different animal than cash games as 2.7 ROI on a $50,0000 salary simply is not going to cut it. Instead, if you want to win, you will need anywhere from 4 – 4.5 ROI, which means you need ceiling games from almost every guy in your lineup. Imagine this scenario in seasonal fantasy football. You have a monster week. You made all the correct lineup decisions and you team scored 190 points in your 12 team fantasy league. Only problem…your opponent scored 210 points. You would have beaten anyone else in your league but you just happened to have that unlucky matchup that week. Well, that’s basically GPP. You will lose more times than you will win, that’s just the facts, please do not listen to people who tell you otherwise.

I have yet to do any sort of damage in a gpp this year, I did finish 3rd in a field of 200,000 once last year, but that’s been it. Since you will lose more often than you win, contest selection becomes important. If you are a one lineup kind of person, then you need to put your lineup in contests that are SINGLE ENTRY only. These contests are usually somewhere in the 11,000 – 30,000 entrants and are “easier” to win than the 20 entry or 150 entry contests. These are the ones, like the Millionaire Maker that get heavily advertised and feature something like 225,000 people, many of whom are making 150 lineups. There are some free ones out there, that are nice, but if you win a free one and get $500, just know that if that lineup were in a paid contest, you could have had maybe $10,000 instead.

There are many different strategies toward winning. One I like is game stacking. I want to find the game that is going to blow up, and I’m not going to pick the game that everyone else is picking. Take the KC v Dallas game from last week. It didn’t live up to the hype, but the GB v Minnesota game did blow up. A way to win last week was to stack Karen Fraudgers with Adams and MVS, but then “run it back” on the other side with Justin Jefferson.

Below I have listed my favorite stacks by starting with the QB(s) that I am interested. As I said, there are other ways to win, but this is the only one that has ever worked for me.

On to the players!

QBs and the players to go with them

Tom Brady – $7600  1x

I wonder if people will be hesitant to go here based on recent performance and perception that the Colts D is good, they are actually one of the league’s top pass funnel defenses. This game does have the highest point total, so my guess is it will carry ownership. Brady has not had a curbstomp you with a 4 or 5 TDs game in while. I believe it is coming. Will it happen this week? Potentially. Indy is allowing the 5th most fantasy points per game to outside receivers this season with CBs Rhodes and Ya-Sin struggling in coverage. Evans will face Rhodes frequently. Rhodes is permitting a 69% catch rate and is Pro Football Focus’s 90th graded cornerback (out of 118). In the last 4 weeks, Rhodes has surrendered big days and more importantly, big fantasy point performances to Stefon Diggs, A.J. Brown, and Elijah Moore. Tampa will mix Tyler Johnson and Perriman in on the side that gets Ya-Sin. Gronk and Godwin will patrol the middle of the field in beatable matchups as well.

Stacking Options – I wouldn’t encourage stacking beyond 2 pass catchers. Brady with 2 of Evans, Godwin, Perriman, Johnson and Gronk. On the other side of the ball, how does one ignore Jonathan Taylor at this point? Well, the run stopper himself, Vita Vea should be back this week so proceed with caution there (if for some reason Vea is out then it’s all systems go for Taylor again). Additionally, Michael Pittman is in position to have a big day against the TB secondary, particularly CB Murphy-Bunting. The only problem with such a stack, is the low average salary you now have to fill out the rest of your lineup with.

Jalen Hurts – $7300  1.2x

Hurts has shown a high rate of success, PASSING, against cover 3 defenses, which the GMen use at a top 5 rate in the NFL. The GMen haven’t had the defense we thought they would have this season either.

Stacking option – I’m only interested in stacking Hurts with Smith and/or Goedert. I’m a little hesitant to do a double stack with Hurts as (and it appears Miles Sanders who is back…more on him below) he still will run the ball. On the other side, I like Saquon this week as he was heavily featured in the pass game last week. Last Sunday he played a “limited role” and still had double digit DK points. The Eagles are surrendering the 8th most fantasy point per game to opposing RBs.

Matt Stafford – $ 7100  1.05x / Karen Fraudgers – $6900  1.1x

Okay, here comes a long writeup about why I won’t be going here. Stafford has not been great the last few weeks and comes in as the 3rd highest priced QB. As such, he will likely carry less ownership than the guy on the other side. These teams met in the 2020 Divisional Round playoff game, but Stafford wasn’t here and Kupp was inactive in that one. The matchup Kupp draws in the slot against CB Sullivan is great as he is allowing a 71% catch rate and the Packers are giving up the 13th most fantasy points per game to opposing slot receivers. Kupp also has a 32% target share. Jaire Alexander continues to be out, so this is also potentially good for OBJ and Van Jefferson as CB King is dealing with an injury still as well….but for me the problem lies on the Green Bay side of the ball.

Stacking Options – I think Kupp is a must have whether or not you roll with Fraudgers or Stafford. For Fraudgers, Adams and/or MVS and Lazard make sense, I just don’t believe in chasing, so my stack would be Stafford with Kupp and one of OBJ/Van Jefferson/Higbee with Adams or Dillon (who disappointed last week with major ownership) on the other side. That, however, is an expensive stack. I will say this as well, and here is my problem stacking this game, the Packers are already down Elgton Jenkins and may be without LT Bakhtiari. This is a huge advantage for the Rams defensive front and they should be able to dial up pressure against GB.

Kirk Cousins – $6300  1.2x / Jimmy G – $5700  1.4x

I like the 49ers to limit Minnesota’s ground game on Sunday. I also like Deebo Sam…I mean the 49ers to put up points against Minnesota. Feel free to take to the air Mr. Cousins to keep up with the San Francisco Deebo Samuels. Fun fact: the Vikings secondary has allowed the most passing yardage and the most passing touchdowns over the last 4 weeks, so as such I am interested in Jimmy G as well.

Stack options – Cousins with 1 or 2 of Jefferson, Thielen, Conklin and run it back with Deebo (I suppose you could do Kittle or Aiyuk too) or Jimmy G with Samuel and Aiyuk or Kittle and run it back with Jefferson or Thielen.

Joe Burrow – $6200  1.15x

Sometimes it makes sense to strike when the iron is … not hot. Burrow has thrown 1 TD in the last 2 games. It’s a perceived “tough matchup” vs division rival Pittsburgh. As such, Burrow will be low owned, add in the man crush I have on him and we are talking about the exact kind of play I am looking for. The Steeler defense is banged up, particularly TJ Watt. Now Watt is supposedly going to play, and that hurts Burrow for sure, but if Watt is out, limited in anyway, or re-injures himself during the game, then Burrow and the passing attack are in business. Tee Higgins disappointed at heavy ownership last week and Ja’Marr Chase is potential the highest drafted WR in seasonal leagues in a couple years.

Stack option – I like the 5 player stack here. Burrow with Chase and Higgins (could go Uzomah) and Harris, DJ, or Claypool on the run back. Any one of those Pittsburgh guys is a stand alone option (or “one-off`”) in other stacks.

Matt Ryan – $5500  1.25x

This is gross. The fact of the matter though is that it is a great matchup for a team that is throwing the ball a lot. The problem I have is who is going to catch it though. I don’t think it will be Kyle Pitts as the Falcons have been using him as a perimeter WR and it hasn’t been working. If Cordarelle Patterson is back then I have interest there.

Stack options – Ryan with 1 or 2 of CPatt, Gage, Sharpe, Zaccheaus and run it back with Robinson, Jones, or Shenault.

Tyrod Taylor – $5300  1.5x

The Jets secondary has been getting roasted in recent weeks, giving up the 3rd most fantasy points per game over the last month. Cooks won’t face any one singular corner in coverage but should expose all of them. His 29% target share makes him a must have for me if using Taylor.

Stack option – Taylor with Cooks and then run it back with Elijah Moore. I don’t believe in chasing, but I do believe in opportunity. Moore looks like he will be 5% owned this Sunday. In the last few weeks he has moved to the outside WR spot and has excelled at it. He now gets the 31st ranked secondary in the Houston Texans.

DST

New England Patriots – $3900

No Henry. No Julio. No AJ Brown. The Patriots have lost to the Titans the last two times these teams have played, and one was a playoff game. You know Bellichick can’t wait to stick it to Vrabel.

Los Angeles Rams – $3300

Banged up Green Bay offensive line, AND a defense that features Aaron Donald and Von Miller?

Philadelphia Eagles – $3200

The Eagles D have put up some real good fantasy numbers in recent weeks and the GMen apparently don’t have a new offensive coordinator yet after firing Garrett. Supposedly Judge will call the plays.

Tennessee Titans – $2900

Vrabel’s teams have played the Pats tough, and a good outing is their best chance of winning on Sunday.

Houston Texans – $2300

I actually think at this price the Texans will be chalky. They have put up fantasy points in recent weeks and now get the Jets. Some turnovers are likely.

One Offs & Values

Below are some guys I think you can mix and match with the stacks listed above as they have potential for ceiling games even if their particular game doesn’t shoot out.

Austin Ekeler – $8400  1.1x

Again, not into chasing, but Ekeler has a huge role as New Kamara in this offense. Ekeler finds himself in another great spot against the 28th ranked Broncos rush DVOA defense.

Joe Mixon – $7500  1.2x

If the Bengals can’t pass, then Mixon, who has a solidified role in this offense and is 7th in the league in touches per game, makes sense. The Steelers defense is giving up the 8th most rushing yards per game and is averaging 4.7 yards per carry to RBs.

Keenan Allen – $7400  1.2x

The PPR God has returned. Tougher matchup for sure, but short passes continue to happen for Allen who is AVERAGING 12 targets a game over the Chargers last 4. Now if he could only get in the endzone.

Jaylen Waddle – $5900  1.5x

Since his collegiate days, Waddle has eaten up Cover 1 defenses. While the Panthers are a good defense, they run Cover 1 at the 8th highest rate in the league. Over the last 6 weeks Waddle is averaging nearly 10 targets a game.

Darrell Henderson – $5800  1.1x

If I don’t like the GB v LA game to go bananas, then it makes sense that the Rams beat Green Bay this week with defense and the ground game. As an aside, I think Kupp is independent of game script and can be used as a stand alone too.

Cam Newton – $5600  1.3x

I originally had Cam up in the stack section, which I suppose you could still do as the matchup DJ Moore has vs the Dolphins cornerback group is quite good. Miami is allowing the 2nd most fantasy points per game to perimeter WRs. Moore will go up against CBs Jones and Howard, who are having poor seasons. Miami ranks either 1st or 2nd in receptions, receiving yards, receiving touchdowns, and fantasy points allowed to WRs. I just don’t think Miami will be very competitive in this matchup so stacking the game isn’t something I have interest in. So, I think you can run Cam naked (don’t get excited, this means without any of his teammates) as there is always the possibility that he has multiple rushing scores. As stated, Moore is in play too, and CMC is always in play.

Elijah Mitchell – $5400  1.4x

If not running out Niners and Vikings pass catchers, then it makes sense to play Mitchell as the 49ers return to a heavy dose of the ground game. By the way, if Mitchell is playing I have less interest in Aiyuk. Also, if Mitchell does not play, I think we see more handoffs to Deebo.

Miles Sanders – $5100  1.4x

Sanders returned last week for 16 rush attempts for 94 yards (and a fumble). The price here is great and is made even better by the fact that Jordan Howard is out. Howard was getting all the goal line carries so those hopefully open up for Sanders, but Hurts could easily vulture them. In any event, the opportunity and price is good here.

Kenny Golladay – $5100  1.5x

No one will own him. No one. OC Garrett was just fired by the Gmen. This is simply a gut call here as I bet one of those reasons was Garrett’s inability to figure out a way to use this star WR. Golladay is good. I don’t think going to New York was a wise career move for Golladay, but he has the chance right now to turn it around. I won’t be forcing Smooth Kenny G into my lineups this week, but he will be in my player pool, as will Evan Engram who I feel also qualifies as talent squandered under Garrett.

Jakobi Meyers – $5000  1.5x

Mac Jones looks like a Patriots QB and as the season has gone on, the coaching staff has begun to allow him to throw a little more. This play is dependent on the Titans making it a game. If the Pats blow them out, Meyers will have 4 catches. If the Titans make it a game, then Meyers could see north of 10 targets. The Titans are awful against WRs.

Noah Fant – $4600

The Chargers have allowed 17.2 fantasy points per game to opposing TEs this year.

Dez Fitzpatrick – $3200  2x

Now the matchup is not good, but who else is Tannehill going to throw to? If you need a punt, then the price is right for a guy who is now a top 3 receiver on the Titans who also caught a TD last week. Westbrook-Ilhine is in play too, but I think he’ll have higher ownership since he’s only 4K and had over 100 yards receiving last week. Don’t chase.

Plan of Attack

My favorite game to stack is going to be the SF v Minn game. I think most people will gravitate to Indy v Tompa (which I am interested in but am not all that happy about it) and GB v LA (which I am fading as far as a game stack is concerned).

My favorite one-off play this week is Pittman.

If Kenny G catches a long TD or 2, and you have him in your lineup, you win all the money.

I’ll be making 45 – 50 lineups myself. I’ll be sure to tell you how I did. Good luck!