Lamar Who??

I came in the black/green again as a 1.98% Huntley was absolutely the play. The bonus (fake) news about Lamar possibly playing was a glorious thing that fell right into our laps this morning. Somewhere around 40,000 feet (and a fuck ton of turbulence, of which I am not a fan), I was struggling what to make of it, and I’m glad my instincts were right. However, I wish I trusted myself more as I simply did not have enough lineups with Huntley to make a dent as each one had at least one flaw, the example here is Claypool, most had a Wilson and/or Jones flaw. As we will see below, where and when to swallow ownership is the challenge.

The pay up and pair concept at TE worked again. Definitely something to keep in mind.

How Robinson ended up in this lineup I’m not sure as it was a likely oversight on my part. I discovered Robinson was going to be 40% owned in gpps. I’m just not into 40-ways. He ended up being close to 50% owned. Yes, he was in a winning lineup, but I have a tough time holding hands with close to 50% of a 118,000 person contest. The quickest way to get different there is to simply not play him. Anything could happen…he could get hurt, the defense and coaches could find a way to scheme against him, the offense and coaches could simply not make him a focal point, he could fumble twice, etc. I pre-ran a lot of my lineups as I simply couldn’t trust the airline industry nor in-flight WiFi while I flied, so many of the lineups I made had Robinson in them. I got lucky and missed removing him here. There are two takeaways…the first is if you are considering to eat chalk of this magnitude, then you have to get different elsewhere…in this case it was Huntley. Second, I will continue to fade this scenario as, because of the reasons I outlined above, you immediately have a 50% leg up on everyone should the chalk fail.

Diontae Johnson came in at over 20% ownership. I was not pleased with that. Had I known it, I likely would have faded.

Same can be said for 40% owned Devante Adams. So much of this game is to be able to identify high ownership and get different. For example, a lineup that had Robinson, DJ, Adams and Parker (30%) did not make you a winner. It’s honestly the biggest thing for me. That being said, my pivots: Gaskin, Lamb, Jones, and Albert Wilson were not good enough either.

Jeff Wilson angers me. That being said, you shouldn’t ignore the SF starting RB….as long as you know who it is.

As a group of fantasy players, many of us pulled hamstrings this weekend getting on the Jaguars bandwagon. While the Urban Meyer firing was welcomed news for fantasy players, we neglected to remember that it’s still the Jags.

BONUS Monday Slate Thoughts!

Gonna be a chalky slate but I’ll give you my priorities here. On a two game slate, you will have to eat some chalk, but there are still places to find leverage.

First off, I am not getting cute at RB tonight. Starters only for me. You will find all my lineups with 2 – 3 of the starting RBs.

Dal Cook – $8500 isn’t cheap but he is my priority. I assume Alexander Mattison doesn’t believe in Covid because he chose not to get vaccinated for it, so he’s out. You can pair Cook with Kirk Cousins – $6800 to try and be different, but I think Cousins will be the chalk of the slate tonight. For my purposes I like pivoting to Justin Fields – $5300 who is $1500 cheaper than Cousins and has way more rushing upside, including hopefully a rushing TD. Additionally the Vikings are surrendering booku points to the QB position. I am actually hoping for a high scoring affair in this game and as such I will use multiple players from it. Need to monitor Adam Thielen – $6700 as if he comes back, then that downgrades KJ Osborn – $4500 who I think will be a popular play given his price tag and recent performances. The three WRs tonight for Chicago could very well be Darnell Mooney – $5500 and Damiere Byrd – $3400 on the outside and Jakeem Grant – $3800 in the slot. I expect Grant to carry ownership after not just 1, but 2 fluky plays last week. I am not expecting another long TD out of Grant, but he could still wind up in the optimal lineup with 5 grabs. The leverage play off both Grant and Mooney is Byrd.

Much of what I said in my writeup about the Browns and Raiders (https://doorfliesopen.com/2021/12/18/boriss-week-15-dfs-writeup-with-a-bonus-saturday-slate/) still applies, but monitoring who is in and out is key. The line has moved to Browns -1.5 and the O/U at 41. If everything stays the way it is, the outside WRs for Cleveland are likely Donovan Peoples-Jones – $4200 and Anthony Schwartz – $3000. The People’s Court is going to carry ownership, but with Nick Mullens starting, give me slot WR Rashaad Higgins – $3000. Teams typically keep things simple for their 3rd string QBs, so I expect a lot of short, intermediate passes in the middle of the field for Mullens tonight. This would set up well for Austin Hooper – $3500, but since he may not play, it might be good news for David Njoku – $3600 and possibly even Harrison Bryant – $2500 instead.

If I hear any updates, I’ll add them to the comments. Slate starts at 5 Eastern tonight!