Merry Christmas or whatever you practice, all!

I apologize in advance if any of the following information is outdated because of Covid or other unforeseen circumstances. Like most, I have been quite busy on Christmas Eve and this morning, so much of this article was completed by Thursday afternoon. If any major updates need to be expressed, I’ll make sure to get on the Sunday morning thread.

Congratulations to those who moved on in your seasonal leagues. For those of you who have not, well you can still play some DFS football all the way to the Superb Owl. Draftkings has some low risk gpp tournaments for those who just want to get their feet wet. There’s 10, 25, and 50 cent contests and some $1 ones as well. I’ll be crunching up 50 lineups for Sunday so let’s get into it.

This time of year it begins to be important to pay attention to the playoff picture as some typically reliable studs have the chance of being limited or outright sat. Luckily I don’t think any of that is on the table just yet. Here are both conferences heading into the weekend:

On to the player pool!

Stacks

Your chalk stack of the week is going to be Los Angeles Rams vs Minnesota Vikings. This game opened at a 49.5 total and the Rams are only favored by 3. This suggests a high scoring, close affair that will keep both offenses on the move.

On the Rams side you get Matthew Stafford – $6700 who comes in as the 6th highest priced QB of the week and the obvious pairing is Cooper Kupp – $9100. His matchup vs slot CB Alexander may be his easiest on the season. Yeah, let that sink in. You can also add Van Jefferson – $5500 and OBJ – $5300. I probably wouldn’t go beyond 2 of his pass catchers though. On the other side you can like that with Kirk Cousins – $6200 if you think it’s a Vikings throwing game. The Vikings and I are still in a fight after their under-utilization of Dal Cook – $8300 (highest priced RB this week) in the passing game against the Bears. However, they really didn’t need Cook to do more than gain 2 – 4 yards at a time by running up the middle and running out the clock as the Bears didn’t really look like they wanted to play. Obviously a good pairing with Cousins is Justin Jefferson – $8100 but if you wanted to get different than the field, I’d pair him with Adam Thielen – $6900 if he plays, KJ Osborn – $4800,or Tyler Conklin – $3900. Alexander Mattison – $6800 is going to start since the unvaccinated Dal Cook tested positive, and as such he will be unavailable on Sunday. The matchup isn’t fantastic, but Minnesota utilizes the RB heavily and therefore Mattison is a possibility at likely less ownership than he normally is when he assumes the full-time role.

Since those stacks will carry ownership what I might do is grab a piece or two from that game and then stack up an angry Tom Brady – $7400. I really don’t think anything gets this guy more focused than an embarrassing loss, and what a loss it was to the Saints as they didn’t score a single point and lost a couple players for the season, one of them being Chris Godwin. Mike Evans – $7000 left that game too with a hamstring issue, and as such he is questionable going into this matchup; I think he plays, even if he only ends up being a decoy. Luckily for the Bucs, they should be getting the fake vaccination carding Antonio Brown – $4900 back just in time.

It’s quite possible many DFS players will flock to this guy, so my likely pairing with Tom is going to be Rob Gronkowski – $6200 or both. The WR who is in line to take Chris Godwin’s spot on the field and line up in the slot is Tyler Johnson – $3900. I have a sneaky suspicion that Ronald Jones – $5100, who has done next to nothing all year, will be chalky on Sunday. RoJo should take over RB1 duties for Fournette who is doubtful with a hamstring issue. There is no denying that Tampa has been utilizing their RB well in their attack, and I honestly think RoJo is talented to enough to fit that role, but if he is coming in at high ownership, then I am not going to feel good about it. That being said, the potential for over 100 total yards and a couple of scores is definitely there.

I don’t think you need to run it back on the other side, but my preferred play would be DJ Moore – $5700 whose price has gone down since last week even though he has an absurd target share right now seeing double digit targets from Cam Newton – $5600. I would only play Cam if you wanted to punt the QB position this week if you think it’s another low scoring QB week.

Another potential stack is Patrick Mahomes – $7700 who I have a feeling is not going to be highly owned. This situation needs monitoring as both Tyreek Hill – $8400 and Travis Kelce – $7300 tested positive for the Rona and are on the C19 list. Now, Kelce is vaccinated, or at least the card he has says so. As long as he stays asymptomatic then he can be cleared to return. Whether or not Hill is vaccinated is questionable. Regardless though, this is an expensive stack, so DFS players will likely look elsewhere, which makes me like it. I also think the Steelers, who opened as 10 point dogs will find success here. Big Ben – $5500 isn’t necessarily someone I am going to try and use, but an over-owned week 15 Diontae Johnson – $7500 who didn’t really do anything for his owners last Sunday and whose price tag has not dropped, should be lesser owned this Sunday. Chase Claypool – $5100 also did fuck all last week and was only targeted twice. Law of averages says that changes in week 16. You can also try and get weird here with Zach Gentry – $2600 who may potentially take TE1 reps if Freiermuth misses due to a concussion, but you’re hoping for a TD here, that is all. Due to his volume, Najee Harris – $7400 is in play as well. He shit the bed last week, so the chances that the does that again are not high.

Last but not least we have Joe Burrow – $5900 and Lamar Jackson – $6900 / Tyler Huntley – $6000. Ja’Marr Chase – $7100 and Tee Higgins – $6200 get a Baltimore secondary that is still as decimated due to injury as it was last week against Adams and Green Bay. The Ravens actually schemed up a defense that had 2 CBs on the outside against Adams and he still had a decent day. The last time Higgins faced the Ravens, he saw a career high 15 targets in Week 7. This is a smash spot for both guys. For what it is worth, the Ravens are 3rd worst vs the TE and CJ Uzomah – $3000 will not be owned. Speaking of not owned, Baltimore does its best to stop the opposing team’s run game, so Joe Mixon – $6900 will be low owned.

Over on the other side, Mark Andrews – $7000 will be a popular play regardless of which QB starts, but he has been Huntley’s primary target thus far so I am sort of hoping for Lamar to start, for Andrews’s ownership to be high, and for me to pivot to Hollywood Brown – $5800 who will be less owned. As of this writing though, it looks like Huntley will go again.

Potential One-Offs 

Austin Ekeler – $8100

Need to monitor this as Ekeler was put on the C19 list. It’s the Texans though. Something named Rashaad Penny had over 100 yards rushing against this team. Should Ekeler miss, then Justin Jackson – $4200 likely supplants RoJo as the RB chalk of the week, especially in cash games. Josh Kelley – $4000 will get some playing time too, but Jackson is the likely featured back. There will likely be something along the lines of 30 – 35 touches in store for the Chargers backfield on Sunday. I would expect Jackson to receive around 20.

Keenan Allen – $7700

I’m not really interested in stacking the Chargers this week as I’m not expecting Houston to keep up in this matchup. You certainly could do that but the Texans have Omicron running through them like white chocolate runs through me…like a Chinese Bullet Train.

That being said, I still like me some PPR God Keenan Allen to get his usual 10+ targets. With that comes TD potential as well as over 100 yards. The Chargers need this win, so I expect them to lean on their best players early, establish a lead, and run the clock out on Houston.

Cordarelle Patterson – $6700

They have reduced his targets significantly over the last month and increased his rushing attempts. It’s Detroit. CPatt might not need catches to be one of the best RBs this week.

Jalen Hurts – $6400

One of these days fantasy sites are going to get wise and count QB rush yards the same as they count QB throwing yards. Until then though, take advantage. You can pair Hurts with someone like DeVonta Smith – $6000 or Dallas Goedert – $5100, but you can also run Hurts naked as his fantasy appeal is his rushing potential.

DK Metcalf – $6400

I done told ya I am not missing the eventual explosion. Last week Decoy Metcalf cleared Ramsay by like 10 yards and had an easy TD, but Wilson threw it about 10 yards short into the waiting arms of Ramsay. The raw physical talent is still there, but I do like Metcalf better if Lockett plays.

James Robinson – $5900

True to his word, interim HC Bevell used Robinson as a featured back against Houston. I expect Robinson to have success again in his matchup vs the Jets, but like last week, it comes down to ownership for me.

Russell Gage – $5900

He has ascended to the primary passing target in this offense and gets a matchup against the hapless Lions. That being said, teams are consistently opting to beat Detroit on the ground.

David Montgomery – $5700

Despite the Bears ineptitude against the Vikings, Monty still got 23 total touches for 83 yards. Gimme 23 touches at this price vs the Seahawks defense anytime.

Amon-Ra St. Brown – $5600

The Sun God has drawn target totals of 12, 12, and 11 over the last 3 weeks. This week he faces CB Hall who is allowing a near 80% catch rate. Atlanta is giving up the 8th most fantasy points per game to slot receivers, and St. Brown runs 80% of hid routes from the slot. You know I don’t like chasing, but I can ignore great statistical matchups either. If Goof, I mean Goff misses, then I like this play less.

Craig Reynolds – $4500

Since this guy got EA Sports created and inserted into our worlds during week 14, he has received 37 rushing attempts and 3 catches on 3 targets. I’m probably not going here if both Swift and Williams play, but it’s clear Detroit is attempting to give this guy opportunities (26 last game) and see what he can do. Hot take…he’s already passed Williams on the depth chart IMO. The Falcons are one of the top 10 worst teams vs the run, there might be no Goff this week as he has C19, it’s a lost season anyway, so feeding Reynolds might be high on their list of priorities on Sunday.

Josh Palmer – $3300

Just mentioning him here as he is the likely replacement for Jalen Guyton who has gone the way of Covid. Palmer showed that he can hang at the NFL level 2 weeks ago. At $3300, you could do worse.

DST

Where I’m at

I really like the idea of stacking Baltimore and Cincy. The Ravens remember their embarrassing loss against this team but still have a secondary that rivals a D3 college team. Shootout potential is here this week.

I think it’s foolhardy to not start Brady this week.

Craig Reynolds is interesting, albeit scary, Montgomery will be my priority at RB this week. CPatt is a close second.

Kupp just might be a must own.

Remember to pay up at TE and/or pair your TE with his QB.

Enjoy today and your Boxing Day football!