Welcome to week 17, aka mega week as there are 14!! games on the Sunday slate. There’s a lot more information to go through, but we’re still going to try and cash in gpp for the 4th week in row and maybe even take one down! Here is the current playoff picture which needs to be taken into account when considering players and the situations in which they find themselves.

What I really like about the new NFL playoff system is that teams are more incentivized to play their better players in these final games. There is only one bye available, so despite having clinched, it behooves both the Chiefs and Packers to continue to try to win and secure a first round bye and home advantage throughout the playoffs.

Game-stacking Environments:

Dallas v Arizona

Dallas vs Arizona opened with the largest total at 51.5 Let me start by saying that I am unlikely to go heavy here for many reasons. 1 is ownership.  2 is recency bias. The thought out there is that the Dallas offense is healthy and back, and I’ll agree that it certainly appears to be. However, the Cardinals are not the same suck bag bunch of losers that the WFT is.

3rd is that both of these teams have already clinched playoff berths. Would either’s situation be improved with a W? Not really. Their records may improve, but the Cardinals will still have a road playoff game and Dallas will still have the division. I’m just hesitant that it’s more important for both teams to keep players healthy than it is for them to secure a W. The Cowboys stack is very affordable. Dak Prescott – $6700 can easily be fit in with any of his pass catchers, but I expect Amari Cooper – $6600 to carry significant ownership due to recency bias, his price tag, and his target share in this offense. If I’m going here, I like Cedee Lamb – $7100 and Michael Gallup – $4800 who will carry less ownership.

On the other side, I expect Kyler Murray – $7300 to not be as highly owned as Arizona appears to be struggling without DHop, but they are not the WFT whom the Dallas D just made their bitch on national, primetime TV, Dwayne. If you tell me that this is going to be a Kyler running game, then I have interest, otherwise I really don’t. That’s the other thing too…when Kyler is hurt, then he and the Cards simply are not as good. If you’re AZ, why risk your playoff QB with open field runs? That being said, AJ Green – $5300 needs 4 catches for a $250,000 bonus. Should he get a total of 14 catches over his final 2 games, then it’s a $500,000 bonus. Also, Zach Ertz – $5200 has accumulated 31 targets over the last 3 games.

KC v Cincinnati

The Kansas City secondary is not the same secondary that the Ravens have. Despite that, this tilt has a 49.5 total. In fact, the Chief defense has been playing quite good of late, so I expect them to make the sledding a little rough for Joe Burrow – $6900. Burrow had the best fantasy outing of his life (and in Bengals QB history) last Sunday, so it shouldn’t be wise to Ja’Marr Chase – $7600 a previous performance. My track record of love for both of these guys is well known, but I’m not sure this environment is the one in which they should be targeted, especially if their ownership will be high after last week. Tee Higgins – $6900 has become Mr. Reliable in this offense, and since he is priced lower, he will likely carry more ownership than Chase. One thing I do like is that SS Tyrann Mathieu, who typically makes life hard for slot receivers, may miss this game with a quadricep issue. That could be a good thing for Tyler Boyd – $5400.

I will say this, Patrick Mahomes – $7800 and the Chiefs could conceivably win this game and then get to rest people for 2 weeks if the Titans lose to Miami. So I expect them to put the screws to the Bengals here. Tyreek Hill – $8300 and Travis Kelce – $7300 should be good to go, and make for an expensive stack, so the ownership should be low. Byron Pringle – $4100 looks like the WR2 in this offense, and as such, he is way too cheap. Just don’t expect 2 TDs again. CEH is out for this games, so Darrell Williams – $5800 will get the RB1 duties and will probably carry ownership.

Rams v Ravens

This might be my favorite environment but not for the reasons you might think. First off, Cooper Kupp – $9500 might be close to a must play yet again. How is it that this guy’s matchups seem to get better every week? Now he gets the Ravens JV secondary. What the Rams should do is air it out against Baltimore, but will they?

(credit: Sharkbait)

Sean McVay is not a man to be trusted, and I honestly think he’s the type of person who thinks he is the smartest guy in the room, so why not try to find a way to beat Baltimore on the ground with his shiny new Sony Michel – $5800? Additionally, with Henderson hitting IR, Cam Akers – $4800 will become a thing again. Akers will most likely be saved until the playoffs, week 18 at the earliest, so expect Michel to get the bulk of the work. While everyone and their mother is expecting Matt Stafford – $7100 to throw it 40 times, I’m just not sure it will happen. If you wanted to go that route, then OBJ – $5700 and Van Jefferson – $5300 obviously make sense. Tyler Higbee – $4000 returned to the lineup last week and got 6 targets, he is sneaky. However, what I really liked here was the possible return of Lamar Jackson – $7000. The Ravens absolutely need this win whereas the Rams have already clinched a playoff berth, and I thought the surer thing was for Lamar to go old school with close to 100 yards rushing. Since Lamar is likely to miss again, Tyler Huntley – $5600 is off the Covid list and is arguably in better physical shape than Lamar is right now anyway. I have no problem firing up Huntley again should Lamar miss. Hollywood Brown – $5900 will be low owned but continues to see a top 10 target share. Rashad Bateman – $4800 has been getting more and more integrated into the offense in recent weeks and you can go back to the well again with Mark Andrews – $7400 who is now the most expensive TE on the board.

Other Potential Stacks

Tom Brady – $7600, like last week, has an opposing team whose ability to stay in this game I question. That being said, there is always the possibility that Brady throws for 300 yards and 4 TDs by halftime. The priority add here is AB – $6100 who saw a 52%!!!! target share last weekend. That’s absurd. He saw 15 total targets (11 more than any other Buc) for 10 grabs and 101 yards. AB is going to be running routes against things named Eichols and Guidry. Out of 116 ranked CBs in the league, Pro Football Focus has Guidry at 97th and Eichols at 114th. Oh also, AB is working towards

in potential bonuses over the last 2 games of the season. If you know anything about this dude’s off the field antics, then you know he could probably use the money. You can stack Rob Gronkowski – $6200 if you like, and I like Mike Evans – $7000 if he returns as he is 101 yards away from his 8th straight seasons with over 1,000 yards receiving. I think most expect RoJo – $6300 to be featured on the ground again. However, he did not see passing targets like Fournette had been seeing, he was kind of lackluster on the ground with his 3.3 yards per carry on 17 touches, and he still has issues picking up and blocking the blitz. Meanwhile Keyshawn Vaughn – $5200 looked better, averaged 10 yards a carry, and HC Arians used the words “lead dog” to refer to him in the post game conference. With Fournette and Bernard out again, Vaughn, the forgotten man here, can do damage against this defense. However, the overall likely scenario is that the Bucs run away with this one, get out of dodge without getting anyone else injured, and improve to 12 – 4, but I also would have said the same about the Chargers last week.

Josh Allen – $8000 gets the shit-bum Falcons. Like Tom’s situation though, I am not sure the Falcons can keep up here. The Bills need the win as it is likely that New England will win their matchup vs the Jaguars. With Cole Beasley – $4900 coming back, he’s my favorite play to see a good amount of volume against CB Hall out of the slot. Don’t chase last week’s performance from Isiah McKenzie as he will not be WR3 with Beasley and Davis returning to the lineup. You can go Stefon Diggs – $7900 here too, but CB Terrell is actually having a decent year and I feel that limits Diggs’s ceiling.

Trey Lance – $4800 will be starting at QB for a 49er team that needs a win. Because of the matchup, the need for SF to win, and because he is shiny and new, I expect Lance to carry some ownership vs the Texans. He will definitely be chalk in cash games. Eli Mitchell – $6000 has been limited in practice which hopefully means he is set to return. When he plays he is the clear lead back for SF. The Texans cannot stop the run and SF wants to run it. I am concerned Lance takes some of that opportunity away from whomever the SF RB is. Additionally, I expect SF to treat the Texans a little more seriously than the Chargers did, so the overall ceiling of everyone on this offense may be limited.

One-Offs

Jonathan Taylor – $9000

He will be low owned….

Raiders sell out to stop the run though.

Joe Mixon – $7500

While everyone is focused on the Cincy passing game, that means Mixon is going to be low owned again. Mixon plays 95% of the snaps and has 14% target share which means he will be involved in the offense regardless of the gamescript.

Jaylen Waddle – $6700

Waddle has reached 7 receptions or more in 7 of his last 9 games and now gets a Titan secondary that’s allowed the most receiving yards to WRs. Waddle will get CB Molden for most of the day. Molden is allowing a 71% catch rate and the Titans have given up the most fantasy points per game to slot receivers this season. Also, Waddle is 6 catches away from breaking the rookie reception record of 101 set by Anquon Boldin in 2003 and 59 yards away from 1000. Over his last 4 games, Waddle has a 34% target share.

Jalen Hurts – $6600

Fuck. The. WFT. The Eagles need this game and they are going to be depleted at RB. You can pair Hurts with a Dallas Goedert – $5100 or DeVonta Smith – $6300 who is coming off a solid 5-80-1 performance last week against the Gmen and will now run routes against CBs Fuller and Roberts, as CB Jackson is dealing with a calf issue. You can also run Hurts naked since the Eagles will be hurting at RB, I am expecting a little more rushing out of Hurts on Sunday.

David Montgomery – $6500

They priced him up, but not enough. Over the last 4 games, Monty has at least 5 receptions AND 25 overall opportunities per game. He should have a solid day vs the Gmen. Could be chalky on Sunday.

Rashaad Penny – $6100

Penny has led the Seahawks in carries in 3 straight weeks. In that time he has gone over 100 yards twice and has 3 TDs. The Lions have allowed the 6th most rushing yards per game and are allowing the 7th most fantasy points per game to running backs. I have no idea what is going on in this offense right now, but at least they are handing the ball off.

Amon-Ra St. Brown – $6000

Over the last month, the Sun God has posted receiving stat lines of 10-86-1, 8-73-0, 8-90-1, and 9-91-1. The Seahawks are giving up the 3rd most fantasy points per game to slot receivers, and that’s where Amon-Ra runs 80% of his routes. Slot CB Amadi is ranked 115th out of 116 CBs per Pro Football Focus. It should be wheels up again for St. Brown.

Taysom Hill – $6000

I’m really not expecting much out of this game, but Taysom’s rushing ability is <gulps> extremely necessary, <gags> and New Orleans best bet <throws up in mouth a little> to make the playoffs and secure a victory this week. <vomits> 

You can definitely pair Hill with Alvin Kamara – $7900, who shouldn’t carry much ownership, as this is basically a two-headed rushing attack. You can play either by himself too.

Brandin Cooks – $6000

Cooks has a nice working relationship with QB Mills and makes for a good run back in SF stacks, though I won’t have much of them.

Michael Pittman – $5800

Zero people are talking about him this week and Colts could use a W against a team that tries to stop the run. There is potential that Wentz does not play though.

Braxton Berrios – $3700

WRs are dropping quickly in the Jets organization. As such they have been scheming up usage for Berrios on offense and special teams. If you wanted a run back in Brady stacks, then this guy might be it. I’m not looking to get here, but he has eclipsed 10 DK points in 3 straight and could be considered a viable punt should you need one.

Brevin Jordan – $2800

If I am going to pay down at TE this week, then I will likely land here with Jordan who has a nice rapport with QB Mills. Going to need a TD though to pay off.

Stephen Anderson – $2500

I’m not really looking to get here, but Anderson is basically the last man standing in the Chargers organization at TE. He could luck into a TD and return over 3x his salary if you feel like gambling.

DST

Where I’m at

I’ll be using mutliple QBs.

Cooper Kupp and AB are priorities for me at WR, a Michael Pittman potential ceiling game intrigues me.

I will still have Decoy Metcalf and some Tyler Lockett just in case.

Main RB Pool is: Mixon, Monty, Michel, D Williams, Stevenson if Harris misses, Penny, Edmonds if Conner is out, Vaughn.

Pay up or stack at TE.

“Which chalk should I eat?” question of the week is Monty or AB.

If you stack Dak, get different with Gallup and Cedee.