Hey all and welcome to the Week 6 GPP Breakdown. I put in some serious effort this week to try to become accurate with ownership projections. Ultimately though, a better understanding of ownership won’t be available until Sunday morning. As a reminder, join the Discord for those updates!

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But before we get started….

Let’s Travel Back in Time

On January 20, one team advanced to the Super Bowl after beating their opponent by six points; the final score was 37 – 31. On the same day in the opposing conference, another team advanced to the Super Bowl by beating their opponent 26 – 23. The two teams who met in the finals compiled an Over/Under of 57.5 when kickoff happened. Over half of the bets, and significant money, came in on the over. After putting up conference games with totals of 68 and 49 total points, how could the Super Bowl not go over the 57.5 total?

And then this happened.

The year was 2019.

My point is this: the future is unpredictable. What you saw last week, and what you saw last January, does not necessarily mean it will happen again.

Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs – The Chalk Week 6 GPP Stack

With a game total of 54 points, most Week 6 GPP players will stack this game by going Josh Allen with one or two of Stefon Diggs and/or Gabe Davis and a run back with Travis Kelce and/or another Chiefs WR. I initially thought that Patrick Mahomes would have a higher ownership percentage than the current 6.6% that I have him at, but I still think this is going to increase. The players who do go this route will likely stack Mahomes with Travis Kelce and one other Chiefs WR with a run back of Stefon Diggs or Gabe Davis or both.

Now this is not for the faint of heart, but the best way to win a GPP this week is to not stack this game.

I get it. I personally am struggling to see a way where this game does not shoot out, especially when the last two contests between these teams saw them put up 78 points last January and 58 points last October. From a game theory perspective however, the best way to beat the field is to not play this game.

So we are clear, I am not telling you to not play this game…and if you are reading this from a seasonal perspective, I am not telling you to bench players like Allen, Mahomes, Diggs, Davis, and Kelce. However, I cannot predict the future; if I could, I would be playing the Stock Market or, you know, ruling the entire world. What I can predict though is where ownership will go. Luckily I have several solutions….

Solutions to Week 6 GPP Chalk Stack

1. Just Play the Early Slate! The Chiefs v Bills kicks off at 4:25 EST. There are 11 games on the DraftKings’ main slate. Since the NFL sucks at scheduling, there are only 3 games in the 4 o’clock window. If you just play the Early Only slate of eight games, then you don’t even have to worry about the Chiefs and Bills chalk. Additionally, this strategy will keep you away from the other chalk stack too.
2. Stack this Game in Another Way. If this game had a final score of 30 – 27, it would still beat the Over/Under of 54 and it might feature some more field goals. Since DraftKings (correctly) doesn’t have kickers outside of Showdown slates, I could see players like Devin Singletary, CEH, or Dawson Knox factoring into this game in ways that others are not anticipating. Though I love him, Gabe Davis, from a theoretical perspective, probably is not going to repeat last week’s performance nor will he repeat last January’s performance, just like Travis Kelce is highly unlikely to catch four TDs again. Ergo, stacking this game in a different way, could be beneficial. Deeper dives include Skyy Moore, Isaiah McKenzie, Khalil Shakir, Zach Moss, Jerick McKinnon, or Isaiah Pacheco.
3. Pivot to Other Stacks. Again, not for the faint of heart, but see below for those options. You can still include a one-off or two from the Bills/Chiefs game, but play another QB and his receivers instead.

Other Week 6 GPP Stacking Options

Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks

Also kicking off during the 4 o’clock hour, this game is actually looking like it’s going to carry ownership.

Kenneth Walker is going to carry ownership. While I like him very much in terms of his overall career projection, Walker is carrying too much ownership for someone making his first career NFL start. Yes, he looked great in last week’s matchup with the Saints, but the simple fact is that he is carrying too much ownership. If you are playing cash games, I would argue that you should probably start here with Walker at $5400 in plus matchup, but for GPP, I am fading. Additionally, it’s looking like the world is starting to drink the Kool-Aid on Geno Smith 2.0. I got Smith at 11.4% ownership and the third highest owned QB in Week 6 GPPs. Smith stacks with Tyler Lockett will be plentiful. At 8.3% ownership, DK Metcalf will be lesser owned and therefore will be my preferred stacking option.

If you don’t know this by now, please understand that Kyler Murray is terrible.

It is clearly true that he is not a student of the game, and as such, he will continue to find ways to cost his team games. Eno Benjamin and Rondale Moore look highly owned, so Hollywood Brown would be my preferred run back. CBs Tariq Woolen and Michael Jackson have helped Seattle attain the glory of being one of the worst pass defenses in the league. I also like Zach Ertz as the Seattle LBs are allowing a catch rate of around 85%. With Deandre Hopkins coming back next week, this might Ertz’s last hurrah. Let’s hope Kyler took the week off from playing COD and studied some film for a change. Hollywood is averaging 11 targets a game.

Baltimore Ravens @ New York Giants

Lamar Jackson looks like he is going to come in with low ownership in Week 6 DFS, and that makes him my favorite play on the slate. The Gmen are coming back from the London time change, and Lamar is still playing for next year’s contract. Low owned running QBs in good offenses in plus matchups are the stuff that dreams are made of. Now the Giants have a good track record against QBs thus far, and Lamar is going up against the Ravens former defensive coordinator, but the QBs they have played this year are named Joe Flacco, Ryan Tannehill, Baker Mayfield, Cooper Rush, Justin Fields, and Aaron Fraudgers. Marc Andrews will probably be the third highest owned TE, but he makes a ton of sense in Lamar stacks. Rashod Bateman is looking like he is out, which keep many thinking that Lamar and this offense are limited. I don’t mind Devin Duvernay here either.

One-Offs

Cooper Kupp is always in play. I got him as the fourth highest owned player though, so I’ll pivot to the guy just under him.

Justin Jefferson will be WR1 when this season is over. The Dolphins are seventh worst against WRs. I got Jefferson at 9% ownership. Potentially even better is Adam Thielen who has but one TD on nine targets in the red zone this year and will be virtually unowned in Week 6 GPP contests.

Jonathan Taylor is quickly becoming a forgotten man. One of these weeks he’s going to remind us why he was drafted #1 overall in seasonal. His history at home against the Jaguars is quite good.

Aaron Jones saw 73% of the snaps last week, but only put up 10 fantasy points. As such, he won’t carry much ownership. Jets are middle of the road vs RBs. AJ Dillon will unowned as well.

Mike Evans gets a Steeler secondary that has not been good. In particular, CBs Ahkello Witherspoon and Levi Wallace have have been getting burned by outside WRs like Evans. Additionally, this secondary is dealing with multiple injuries. Chris Godwin is in play as well.

One of these weeks Joe Burrow and the Bengals are going to figure things out. Will it be this week when he comes in at sub 2% ownership with CB Marshon Lattimore missing this game? Hayden Hurst projects as a top five owned TE, but I am not one to chase last week’s performances. Tee Higgins is Questionable to play, and his role in this offense is huge as teams are doubling Ja’Marr Chase when Higgins isn’t on the field. Tyler Boyd might be able to step in, but I prefer Higgins being on the field.He did get in a limited practice on Friday so we’ll see. My personal dream scenario here is Lattimore, CB Paulson Adebo, and S Marcus Maye sit while Higgins plays. LFG!!!

Rhamondre Stevenson is coming in as the highest owned player on the slate. The recent news that Cam Akers is OUT will hopefully take some ownership away form Rhamondre and onto Darrell Henderson, Damien Harris is OUT, the Browns are 3rd worst in the league vs RBs, and the Browns rank 31st in tackling. Rhamondre leads the league in broken tackles. He might not be owned enough. Additionally, last year when Harris was out, Rhamondre averaged 16 DK points per game.

Christian Kirk put up a stat line of six grabs for 78 yards and two TDs against this group during Week 2. Kirk will see a lot of CB Kenny Moore; Moore isn’t good.

Amari Cooper. Parts of New England’s secondary can be had. I expect Belichick to attempt to take away what Cleveland does best, which is run the ball. When Cleveland has to pass, Amari’s number should be called. At $5900, Cooper is too cheap.

James Robinson and Travis Etienne are both coming in around 3 – 4% ownership and Robinson failed as chalk last week (like he always does). I believe that Etienne will eventually take over this backfield. Last week he put up over 100 total yards on 13 touches. Not sure how you ignore that if you’re the coaches….but then again, many NFL coaches are imbeciles.

DJ Moore no longer has to suffer the slings and arrows of Matt Rhule and Baker Mayfield. When playing with PJ Walker, Moore averages 10 targets and 14 fantasy points per game. The Rams are allowing the fifth most fantasy points per game to WRs. Moore should also be low owned.

Allen Lazard and Romeo Doubs are tied with a team-leading 21 targets over the last three weeks. The Jets secondary has shown itself to be vulnerable, and Aaron Rodgers appears to have found his tow favorite passing targets this year. I’d pick only one of these guys though.

Diontae Johnson saw an increased target share last week, and I also like George Pickens as he appears to be Kenny Pickett’s favorite target. The Steelers will likely be playing catchup against their opponent again this week.

Week 6 GPP Chalk Report – Multi Entry GPPs

1. Rhamondre Stevenson – 20.23%
2. Kenneth Walker – 17%
3. Tyler Lockett – 16.9%
4. Cooper Kupp – 16.8%
5. Rondale Moore – 16.7%
6. Alvin Kamara – 15.9%
7. Josh Allen – 15.8%
8. Saquon Barkley – 15.7%
9. Stefon Diggs – 14.9%
10. Darrell Henderson – 14.9%
11. Eno Benjamin – 13.8%
12. Tyler Higbee – 13.3%

As a reminder, these are raw projected numbers that could still be affected by breaking news. Darrell Henderson wasn’t even on this list until Friday night after Akers was ruled out.

Bonus DFO Advice

I’d be higher on Tom Brady if his 12.2% ownership weren’t so high. That being said, he should smash here. The Steelers have a depleted secondary and Josh Allen just torched this group with multiple receivers. This could be a huge spot for Brady and company.

The Saints secondary is also looking quite depleted. Please ask yourself if 9 months ago you would hesitate to play the Bengals offense against a team with a banged up secondary. Burrow and company will be virtually unowned on Sunday because people believe in the thing they saw most recently.

Again, join the free Discord! Updates will be posted there on Sunday morning!