Hey all, and welcome to the Week 18 breakdown! Week 17 was….awful. Not only did I get to witness 2 championships I would have won had things broke a different way in seasonal, but I blew nearly every DFS dollar I invested. Last year I took a GPP down in Week 18, and I think there is a definite advantage to be had this week. I’m not sure if that’s because I’m willing to pay attention to players and teams incentivized to win, or because I had an inkling of which players would get some serious run in meaningless games, or luck, but I am quite hopeful going into this week. Let’s get into it.

Browns @ Bengals

• Jeff Driskel is starting for the Browns so that Cleveland can protect Joe Flacco. (As an aside, that is not a sentence I thought I would be writing this year.) Over the last decade, backup QBs in these situations have not frequently produced fantasy outings over 20 points, and I haven’t found a single one who was the highest scoring QB on the slate. Davis Webb came close for the Giants last year, but he was QB3 with 22.1 fantasy points.
• Cedric Tillman or David Bell may end up being WR1 for Cleveland on Sunday.
• The Browns will not risk Hunt nor Ford in a meaningless game. So feel free to fire up some Pierre Strong. He isn’t all that talented, but he should see plenty of volume in this matchup. He is but $4600 on DraftKings, which should make him a popular play.
• Don’t play Joe Mixon in this game. The Bengals have the option to cut him this offseason so long as he doesn’t get injured on the field. He ain’t playing.
• Ja’Marr Chase has been practicing and looks good to go. Not sure I would let him see the field all that much if I were the Bengals.
• That said, Jake Browning might become a trade-able commodity for Cincinnati. Making sure he has a good game against a bunch of backups might be wise.

Buccaneers @ Panthers

• The Bucs best way into the post season is to win this game.
• Hey Carolina, thanks for making me look like an idiot when I anointed you as the season enders for the Jaguars.
• I know Baker has some incentives here, but teams have been electing to run on Carolina. Evans or Godwin could have good days, and one likely will, but 300 and 3 will be tough for Baker considering the low pace of play expected in this matchup, and that there is only one football to go around.
• Rachaad White is the play for me in this one. Last week Etienne went over 100 on the ground against this defense and Aaron Jones went 127 the week prior.
• Chuba Hubbard is garnering some ownership. That seems silly to me considering the Bucs are one of the best teams in football against the run.

Falcons @ Saints

• I’m done with Art Smith. Somehow the Falcons have a chance to make the playoffs if Tampa loses. If that happens, it might be the first sign of the apocalypse.
• Atlanta plays zone at high rate and Rashid Shaheed performs better against it. This should be a competitive affair as both teams need the win.
• Alvin Kamara hasn’t been participating in practice. Jamaal Williams likely becomes chalky if Kamara misses. The Falcons have been giving up fantasy points to RBs at a top 10 rate over the last month.
• Taysom Hill won’t be owned again.

Jaguars @ Titans

• Trevor Lawrence should be back for this one. I thought the Jags were cooked last week, but they managed to summon a much needed W.
• Travis Etienne is looking priced up enough for people to not want to play him. The Titans have been a top 10 unit against the run in the last 4 weeks.
• Christian Kirk may be the key to everything in DFS for week 18. He’s been practicing, but DraftKings left his price at the 3K minimum. It isn’t the best of matchups, and he might still have some effects from his core muscle injury, but we have noticed how different this team is without him. He’ll be serious chalk if he plays.
• As a group, the Titans are banged up in their secondary. They have also been middle of the road in terms of fantasy points allowed to the position over the last month, but on the season they have continued to be bad against outside WRs. While the return of Kirk is attractive, the best matchup here is Calvin Ridley or Zay Jones on the outside.
• I’m not opposed to running it back with Deandre Hopkins and the contract incentives he carries. The Titans are committed to DHop for at least one more year, so it’s in their best interest to keep him happy.

Jets @ Patriots

Vikings @ Lions

• Dan Campbell has said that his starters are going to play, but the chances of the Lions moving up in playoff seeding is minimal. The starters could be pulled at some point.
• Minnesota is vulnerable against the run. Will Craig Reynolds end up with most of the carries though?
• The Vikings are the 3rd worst team against the WR position over the last month. Can we trust Amon-Ra to maintain his target share?
• The Vikings have a slim chance of making the post season, something like 10%, but they need to win in order to do it. The Lions are the 2nd worst team over the last 4 weeks against WRs, so give me some Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison in this matchup.

Bears @ Packers

• This should be one of the more competitive games on the day. The Packers need to win to make the playoffs, and they have beaten the Bears 9 straight times.

• What will Chicago do with their draft picks this year? Caleb Williams? Marvin Harrison, Jr? Drake Maye? They can draft Harrison, a new QB and trade Fields, or package the #1 pick for other picks to address their needs. Why does any of this matter for Sunday? Because Fields is going to play the whole game against the Packers. It’d be quite nice for fans and ownership to see the Bears knock Green Bay out of the playoffs. Also, this game gives the Bears and potential trading partners further evaluation of Fields. For the record, I say Chicago is not drafting a QB with their #1 pick.
• Over the last 4 weeks, the Packers are the 4th worst team vs WRs and the 7th worst vs QBs. The Packers are also dealing with some defensive injuries.
• Jordan Love has a bunch of financial incentives that come along with getting this team into the post season, so he should be quite motivated.
• The problem is which pass catcher as none are ideal against this significantly improved defense. Both Christian Watson and Jayden Reed are dealing with injuries and have been limited participants at practice this week. Given the magnitude of this game, it would surprise me if both don’t suit up. Watson has a tough matchup on the perimeter against CB Jaylon Johnson, but he has shown the ability to overcome tough matchups with his deep route running ability. Additionally, Johnson hasn’t been practicing this week as he is dealing with a shoulder issue. Reed will have a more advantageous matchup out of the slot against Kyler Gordon, and Romeo Doubs will have a better matchup against CB Tyrique Stevenson.
• Aaron Jones had one of his best weeks of the season against the Bears back in week 1, but that was a much different defense he faced.

Eagles @ Giants

• This is a real interesting situation to me. While the Eagles are going to play their starters and try to beat up on the Gmen, there’s a chance they’ll be scoreboard watching at the same time. If the Cowboys end up being up big around halftime, there’s a huge chance that the Eagles pull their starters. However, the surprising loss to the Cardinals last week may be fresh in Eagles coaches’ and players’ minds, and therefore they may want to get back to the habit of winning on the eve of the playoffs.
• Either way, this Eagles secondary is one to target. The Eagles have given up the most fantasy points to WRs this season. They’ve been a little better lately, but we just saw what Kyler Murray and his receiving core did to this defense. Tyrod is going to test this defense as well.
• Darius Slayton has been receiving some deep targets, and both Wan’Dale Robinson and Darren Waller’s target share has increased with Taylor under center.
• The Gmen are top 10 over the last month in terms of allowing fantasy points to WRs, and they are 7th against TEs. Only problem is that the likes of AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert may only have a half of football to do it.
• Fun fact: the Eagles are 0 – 1 when Julio Jones scores 2 TDs.

Cowboys @ Commanders

• Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb will be a popular combo on Sunday. The Cowboys play at the same time as the Eagles, so they have every reason to play to win and lock up the 2 seed.
• Washington has continued to bleed production to the WR position. The Commanders CBs are not to be feared and are banged up anyway. Additionally, it is quite possible for Lamb to overtake Tyreek Hill in receiving yards and TDs and finish the year as WR1. I’m getting him into as many lineups as I can.
• The last matchup between these two was a 45-10 blowout in November. Prescott had 331 yards and 4 TDs. Brandon Cooks was the leading receiver, in terms of stats, that day.
• Tony Pollard is looking like a popular play, 22.5% projected ownership. I’m good.

Chiefs @ Chargers

• The Chiefs are getting 4 points in this one. That’s adorable.
• Yes, KC is resting their starters, but all the matchups still favor the Chiefs. I’m not rushing to play anyone in the matchup.
• Isiah Pacheco got in some limited practices this week, and Andy Reid said he expects him to be available on Sunday. This makes no sense with everyone else resting. Trying to pick who the lead back on Sunday sounds like true gambling.
• It is worth noting that the Chargers are a hot mess against most positions except the TE spot. Noah Gray is looking a little chalky anyway.
• The Chargers DST is looking like one of the highest owned on Sunday.

Rams @ 49ers

• The 49ers are resting their starters. Sam Darnold will get the start at QB for San Fran.
• Jordan Mason is currently one of the projected highest owned players on Sunday. Not sure he’ll have a full RB1 role, however, as Eli Mitchell could see some time as well.
• Carson Wentz is slated to start with Matt Stafford getting some rest.
• Cooper Kupp is only practicing in limited variety. It seems pointless to play him. McVay almost ended this guy’s career last time he was put on the field in a meaningless situation.
• The Rams could improve their playoff seeding with a win here, however.
• Puka Nacua needs 4 catches and 29 yards to set 2 rookie receiving records. He’s going to get at least that.
• Tutu Atwell could be the primary receiver for the 2nd half of the game.
• I don’t expect Kyren Williams to play. I do expect a running back by committee for LA. The DFS industry is gravitating toward Ronnie Rivers.

Seahawks @ Cardinals

• The Seahawks are going to need a win and some help to make the playoffs.
• Geno Smith gets a $2 million bonus if the Seahawks make the post season. He also has a bunch of provisional statistical markers that can turn his bonuses into an extra $15 million if he accomplishes them.
• The Cardinals CBs continue to be below average in NFL ranking. Tyler Lockett has historically done well against this team, but I wouldn’t dismiss DK in this matchup either.
• Kenneth Walker has been practicing in a limited variety this week. He is dealing with a shoulder injury. I don’t trust RBs with shoulder injuries, especially when they are carrying a projected ownership of 14%. I expect Zach Charbonnet to be utilized at least at a 50% capacity, and I expect he’ll get the goal line carries since backs often lead with their shoulders to plunge in.
• Trey McBride would be my preferred run back. He has a beatable matchup against Devin Bush. Just be careful with the Cardinals this week, the Seahawks have a better defense than the Eagles.

Broncos @ Raiders

• This game is damn near meaningless.
• Zamir White is looking chalky yet again, albeit a little less than last week. The Broncos have a bright green 31st against the position next to White’s name on DraftKings, but the Broncos have been much better against the run over the last month.
• Davante Adams was the player to own last week as he put up over 40 DK points. He’s looking about 12 – 13% owned in week 18.
• The Broncos players will not be owned. There is no faith from DFS players.

Thanks for reading! Follow me on the website formerly known as Twitter @Borisnow00. And join the Discord for updates on Sunday morning.