Sorry again about not getting a recap out on Monday…I’ve been doing the family vacation thing.

Here were my Sunday lineups:

I cashed on SD, and used it in a GPP which did decently but Higgins’s subpar performance submarined it. I wanted to add multiple high end WRs on SD since it’s a) easier to do, and b) be diverse in case I bombed on DK, which I did.

DraftKings was an absolute blood bath. Highly owned Wilson, Higgins, and Gallup all sucked. Also, I opted not to go with Cam since HC Matt Rhule said that PJ Walker would rotate in frequently. Well, welcome to the shit list Mr. Rhule, you lying fuck. Luckily, since I was on the aforementioned family vacation, I played lightly and still have enough to feed my family on Thanksgiving. In any event, cash games are over for me for the year. Pricing is too tight. I will say this…fade the fucking game that everyone is playing. The Dallas/KC game was indeed highly owned. Even if something like that lives up to expectation, which normally it does not, trying to beat so many other people who are also stacking that game is nigh impossible.

Big takeaways from week 11:

1. Cash game SZN is over
2. Jonathan Taylor is your #1 pick in seasonal leagues next year
3. Stay away from highly owned games
4. Matt Rhule is DTM.

On to Turkey Day!

A couple notes before we get going:

1. I’m not what you would call a political guy, but I hate bullshit. Thanksgiving is such in terms of the fairytale we were told about peacefully sharing food with Native Americans before our forefathers decided to try out genocide as a side hobby. That being said, I am all about thanking people as it just doesn’t happen enough in our world today. So thank you all again for the opportunity to write and the eyeballs to read it. Also…time off from work doesn’t suck either. I hope you all have a nice Thursday…and potentially profitable ones too!
2. Thanksgiving Day DFS is not a cash game environment. There are only 3 games and each game has too much volatility, or variance if you will, to identify safe plays. Talk about chalk? It will be on display on Thursday. I’m struggling to believe players like Dalton, Mooney, and the Bears DST will be chalk plays, but they will. In order to win a Turkey Day GPP, you have to find a way to get different form everyone else, while also not being stupid.
3. Going to do things a little different this week and go through each game individually. I have actually been wanting to do this for some time, but have not had the time to devote to all 9 – 13 Sunday games.
4. In my players sections I have them listed as Chalk (players who will carry ownership), Pivot/Contrarian (players who will carry less ownership but still could have a gamescript or decent environment that leads to production), and Wishbone (plays that border on stupidity, but just may be the low owned option one needs in order to smash and take down a GPP).

Bears 3 – 7 @ Lions 0 – 9 – 1

O/U: 41.5

Spread: Bears -3

Lions football on Thanksgiving has been around since

I actually think it’s been longer. I often ask myself why I am annually subjected to Lions football at 12:30 Eastern every Thanksgiving, but then I remember that we usually eat around 2 so if I have to miss some of the games, I suppose the Lions’ ones are the ones to miss.

Chalk Plays:

Deandre Swift – $7300. Has gone over 100 yards rushing in each of the last 2 weeks, and appears to be the only heartbeat on the Lions lackluster offense. The “tough” matchup might scare some people away, but it’s not like there are a plethora of good RBs this week.

David Montgomery – $6000. Likely one of the highest owned plays on the slate. Monty returned 2 weeks ago and got 85% of the snaps in game 1, then 95% in game 2. He wasn’t great by any stretch, but now he gets the dream matchup vs the Lions who have allowed 1,147 rush yards on the year.

Darnell Mooney – $5700

Mooney has somehow displaced ARob as the WR1 in this offense. The Lions are 29th in the NFL in yards allowed per target to opposing receivers. Last week Mooney was targeted 16… I repeat 16 times…14 by Andy Dalton. This play is so enticing it would be a chalky play on a Sunday.

TJ Hockenson – $5200

I don’t think the Hock Alarm will be “chalky,” but he’ll garner ownership based on his role in the offense and what he has been able to do at times this year.

Bears DEF – $3000

The Bears D has had two very good weeks against the Ravens and Steelers, and they now get a less than capable offense who looks like it is starting an injured (shitty) QB in Jared Goff.

Detroit Lions – $2400

Considering the price allure, the low over/under, and the fact that the Lions have 11 and 7 DK points the last two times out, I think many players will opt into the savings here, hope this game is a 19 – 10 snooze fest, and use the bonus $600 dollars to spend up elsewhere.

Pivot/Contrarian Plays:

The QBs: Dalton – $5500, Goff – $5100, Boyle (If Goff is ruled out) – $4800

People will want to play Allen, Dak or Carr on Thursday before any of these guys. That being said, I do expect Dalton to come in with some ownership since it is the Lions. Whether people know this or not, Dalton should be high owned in this matchup. In the last few years, no QB averages more fantasy points per game against Cover 2 than Mr. Dalton. The Lions run the 5th highest rate of Cover 2 in the league.

Allen Robinson – $5100

No one wants to play this guy, especially while he’s dealing with an injury. If Dalton goes, it isn’t like he will be able to run around like Fields did. Dalton is a more traditional pocket passer, and there is certainly a scenario where those targets funnel to ARob. This is probably my favorite place to get different in this game. Just make sure he starts.

Kalif Raymond – $4600  / Amon-Ra St. Brown – $4200

Both should carry little ownership, but they’re the top wideouts in this offense. Raymond seems to have an every other week kinda thing going this season. He either gets 6 to 8 targets a game or is basically ignored. Since you asked, he was ignored last week. The Sun God on the other hand has played 10 games this year and seen 4 or more targets in all but 2 of them (yes, one of those weeks was when I played him). If either one catches a TD or 50 yard pass, then there is a decent chance he’ll be found in a GPP winning lineup. The CB matchups here aren’t bad either, they’re not great, but not bas either.

Marquis Goodwin – $3800

He caught a long TD last week from Mr. Dalton so some might think they are getting cute here. Goodwin sounds like chasing to me, but I also don’t think people are lining up to play him.

Cole Kmet – $3700 

He is averaging close to 5 targets a game, and that’s with Fields in there. A TD alone puts Kmet in the position to be a GPP winning TE on Gobble Gobble Day.

Say a Prayer and Pull the Wishbone:

Jamaal Williams – $4000

While he may have a bit of ownership, what you are wishing for here is a situation in which somehow Swift becomes displaced from his RB1 duties, which likely means an injury for him. That being said, Williams received 7 carries in his return last week. It is likely that he receives more work in this game, especially on a short week. A vultured TD is definitely in play here.

Josh Reynolds – $3000

Love the talent, hate the role and the team he plays on. If Goff starts though, he has game experience with Reynolds.

Jimmy Graham – $2800

He has been playing more snaps of late, and was targeted in the endzone last week. All you are hoping for is TD, otherwise his 2 grabs for 33 yards are unlikely to win the day for you.

Brock Wright – $2500

“What’s a Brock Wright” sounds like the exact type of phrase I could be saying through bites of turkey, stuffing and gravy when it somehow scores a TD.

Raiders 5 – 5 @ Cowboys 7 – 3

O/U: 51

Spread: Cowboys -7.5

Generally speaking, this game will carry more ownership because of the 51 total that accompanies it. The Boys sit atop the NFC East while the Raiders are fighting for their playoff lives. I’d expect a decent effort out of Vegas in this one. I actually love the under here as well as the theory that this game disappoints just like the Boys v KC last week.

Chalk Plays:

Dak Prescott – $6900  / Derek Carr – $5900

Both will be highly owned due to the environment. Cooper will be out again because he isn’t vaccinated and got the Rona, and Lamb may be out with a concussion. Carr and company are likely going to need a balanced attack vs the Boys, and it’s likely Diggs shuts down one of their weapons.

Zeke Elliot – $8000

The O-line, particularly Zac Smith, continues to be healthy-ish. Tyron Smith might return this week, and I would argue his presence is vitally important to the success of the Cowboys offense on Thursday…especially if both Cooper and Lamb miss. Anyway, Zeke is RB1, but scroll down to my bit about Pollard as to reasons why you might want to avoid.

Darren Waller – $6400

Potentially the most owned TE on the slate based on name recognition alone.

Michael Gallup – $5900

This guy was over 60%!!! owned in cash games last Sunday. No one could see the Lamb injury coming, and that ultimately hurt Gallup’s overall production, but he still received 10 targets. If you’re playing Dak, you’re likely putting him with at least one of his pas catchers, and my bet is that Gallup will be the one most flock to. The Raiders outside corners have actually been pretty decent in recent weeks, so I’ll likely look elsewhere in my builds. That being said, CB Facyson’s overall numbers are not good, and it possible Gallup can find a way to exploit him.

Hunter Renfrow – $5600

The trick this week might be to figure out who Diggs is going to cover. If it’s Renfrow, I’m completely out, but I just don’t know. In any event, I expect Renfrow to have high ownership based off his performances in recent weeks.

Bryan Edwards – $3900

People will like him cuz they want to stack this game. Edwards has had a few good games, and honestly like 10 DK points could do it here, but the reality is that this team has not been able to find someone to replace Ruggs’s role yet.

Cedrick Wilson – $3500

The assumed WR2 if Lamb misses. The price will lead people toward liking him, especially in stacks with Dak (kinds sounds like the name of a good show), but unless Wilson is lining up in the slot, which honestly he could end up doing, I’m not interested in him against these Raider corners.

Pivot/Contrarian Plays:

Josh Jacobs – $5900

At the price, and considering Jacobs’s overall mediocre season, most players will just go with Montgomery here. Do I think Jacobs outscores Monty? No. Will you have a massive advantage over the field if he does? Yes.

Tony Pollard – $5600

I love this play for so many reasons. First is the price…it’s just high enough that people won’t do it. The other reasons surround the many possible reasons as to why Pollard could outproduce Zeke here: Elliott is injured and could become more so in this game, the Cowboys get a big lead and close it out with Pollard, the Cowboys fall behind and use Pollard in the receiving game, or Dallas simply rests Zeke, on a short week, by splitting the workload. Pollard also averages 11.7 opportunities per game, which I think he will go over here.

Dalton Schultz – $5300

Schultz may carry ownership. He and Knox are my favorite plays on the TE board this week. When Lamb left on Sunday, Schultz benefitted. Additionally, the Raider outside corners are solid. The middle of the defense? Not so much. If the Boys were fully healthy at WR, I would be all over Lamb here as he mans the slot. Instead, the surest receiver to attack the middle of the field here is Schultz.

Desean Jackson – $3100 / Zay Jones – $3000

I’m actually not sure how contrarian DJax is going to be, as name recognition might make him a popular play. Jackson has a proven track record of being able to catch the deep ball and score TDs, Bryan Edwards does not. As for Zay Jones, between him and Jackson, Jones should come in less owned, and be as likely to catch a deep TD.

Cowboys – $3300 / Raiders – $2400

Boys might carry a bit of ownership, but with the game total so high the Raider D is a group that will carry little, and therefore is likely my highest owned D.

Say a Prayer and Pull the Wishbone:

Kenyan Drake – $4600

Since Gruden has left, Drake’s snaps and opportunities have increased, but not immensely so. 4 to 5 carries a game, and 3 or 4 targets over his last 3, give or take. You’re basically hoping for a Jacobs injury here…and then for Vegas to suddenly find their run game on top of that. I can get onboard here if you tell me the Raiders will be trailing and checking down to Drake.

Jalen Richard – $4000

4K? This is miracle territory for a receiving RB.

Noah Brown – $3000

Much has been made about this guy’s talent over the last 2 seasons, but no earth shattering performance has happened yet.

Malik Taylor – $3000

Showed up a few weeks ago for 2 TDs. For that reason alone he will be higher owned than Brown.

Foster Moreau – $2900

He shows up every now and again in the endzone. He did that last week, but before that he hadn’t received a target since week 7.

Bills @ New Orleans

O/U: 45.5

Spread: Bills -6

As a general rule, the Bills will cary ownership on Turkey Day, especially Allen and Diggs, so I’m not going to write them up. Feel free to play them and get different elsewhere. I do think it will be a more difficult matchup vs CB Lattimore for Diggs, but I don’t think it hurts his ownership numbers.

Chalk Plays (besides Allen and Diggs):

Mark Ingram- $6200

Alvin Kamara is out again, so it’s Ingram’s backfield. I’m curious what will happen here as Taylor straight curbstomped the Bills last week. (As an aside, I quite enjoyed that despite not having Taylor anywhere in DFS. Eff the Bills and all their bandwagon fans. I haven’t seen Bills fans in years, now I see them everywhere.) On volume alone, Ingram is in play despite his price increase. Just don’t go expecting the Saints to do anything near what the Colts did in week 11.

Tre’Quan Smith – $4400

Smith is proving to be a more capable WR than Callaway. Because of his lower price and equal target share, including redzone targets, he will be the more highly owned WR in this tough matchup against a Bills secondary.

Dawson Knox – $4400

Love this matchup, hate the ownership. Bills love to attack the middle of the field in small chunks with their passing game. This has largely been Beasley’s role over the last 2 seasons, but Knox has been featured more and more in it. When Knox was out, they reverted to Beasley, who incurred an injury that he is still dealing with. Knox returned 2 weeks ago, and last week was given this role back. As such, I expect Knox, appropriately so, to carry more ownership than Beasley.

Pivot/Contrarian Plays:

Trevor Siemian – $5600

There’s a bright red 1st against the position listed against Siemian for tomorrow. I don’t really expect him to do all that well, but he has averaged 18.4 DK points over the last 4 weeks, and that includes only getting 10 in week 8. He has increased his output in every week since week 8, and appears to be doing better with the offense. Now I am not expecting a crazy good performance here, but a 20+ point performance could certainly take down a GPP.

Emmanuel Sanders – $4800 / Cole Beasley – $4500

I suspect Diggs and Knox will carry more ownership than either of these two, but they are both in play. I prefer Sanders this week, and I think he is in play if Lattimore makes Diggs’s evening a little tougher.

Marques Callaway – $5000

He costs more and produces less than Smith, so ownership will be low. I think he sucks, but I could see him lucking himself into being a high achieving WR this Thursday.

Deonte Harris – $3700

This is my preferred pay down WR for the Saints as I think he is the most talented and most dynamic. He’ll be used in a variety of different ways in a variety of formations, he just needs everything to break correctly for him.

Gabe Davis – $3600

Every few weeks he has a couple grabs and catches a TD.

Juwan Johnson – $2600

Adam Trautman hit IR after Sunday’s game, and the Saints showed that they want to utilize the TE position last week. A TD here is not out of the question.

Say a Prayer and Pull the Wishbone:

Taysom Hill – $4800

The Saints, as an organization, bewilder the shit out of me. Hill and the Saints recently agreed to a 4 year deal worth $22.5 million. This begs the question: WHY ISN’T HE STARTING???? In any event, would it shock anyone to see this pain in the ass run a couple in on Thursday night? If you play him, just know that he is unlikely to be the top performer at the position….but Siemian could get hurt too.

Any of the Bills RBs

Best run D in the league vs a team that doesn’t run the ball. What could go wrong?

Garrett Griffin – $2500 / Nick Vannett – $2500

One of them is now the TE2 in this offense. Vannett did have one catch for 20 yards last week and could potentially see more. Griffin hasn’t caught a ball in 4 weeks. Either way, these two are competing for leftover turkey here.

My favorite plays, chalk or otherwise, in no particular order:

Dalton

Mooney

Schultz

Pollard

Knox

Allen

Diggs

Raider D

Lions D

Bear D

Biggest Risks I might take

ARob

Vannett

Davis

Harris

Breida

Brown

Wright

Players I’ll have but likely less than everyone else

Dak

Zeke

Gallup

Carr

Waller

Renfrow

Montgomery

Enjoy the games everyone and Happy Thanksgiving!