Welcome to week 14! This looks like a really interesting slate, and the way ownership is breaking down, we are going to have some nice leverage plays. Let’s get right into it!

Stacks

Here’s your heavy stack of the week:

Justin Herbert – $7100 with Keenan Allen – $7600 / Mike Williams – $6000 / Jalen Guyton –  $3400 / Josh Palmer – $3000

Keenan Allen is likely out as he is on the Covid-19 list. Obviously things are going to look a little different for the Chargers this week if Keenan Allen and/or Mike Williams don’t play. What needs attention here is the role players will find themselves in if certain players don’t suit up. If Allen is the only one who misses, which I think is likely since Williams tested negative, then it is likely that Williams gets CB Bradberry, but Bradberry just hasn’t been as good this season (70% catch rate allowed). I am no expert, but I would expect Guyton to keep his role, and Palmer to take the Allen role. Now by “Allen role” I don’t mean a shit ton of targets, I just simply think he takes Allen’s spot on the field, likely in the slot most of the time, though Williams will move into the slot on occasion. I actually expect Palmer to carry some ownership. He’s getting talked up a bit in the fantasy industry, he’s so low priced, and he’s new. People like shiny new things.

Based on Guyton’s and Palmer’s prices, I think this stack will be owned, so getting different at other positions would be necessary. I am not sure how likely I am to go here because I do not think the Gmen make this much of a game (if you do then run Saquon back). If you wanted to go here, a way to get different here would be to stack Herbert with Ekeler instead. You can find more details about Austin down below. Ultimately though, we’ll have to wait until tomorrow to find who will go, and hopefully we will know all that before the 1 o’clock kickoffs. Since this game is at 4, this whole situation is less than ideal.

Next…

Once again Tom Brady – $7600 will carry ownership and Josh Allen – $7800 will as well. This game opened with a 52.5 total, so many will gravitate toward it. Stefon Diggs – $8100 makes a lot of sense against this secondary and is due for a bounce back performance after Monday night. Beasley, Knox and Sanders, heck even Breida could be stacked with Allen, but Diggs is the safest. Over on the Tampa side, Draftkings is making it difficult to stack Brady with multiple players as everyone is getting expensive. Godwin, Evans, Gronk and even Fournette are in play. Godwin is likely going to be the most popular player to pair with Brady, but it’s desereved as he’ll be running slot routes against a zone defense, and he typically eats in those matchups. Fournette and Gronk have also been great beneficiaries in such matchups as well. To update you all, Brady will need 22 TD passes over his last 5 games to eclipse the single season TD record, which is an average of 4.5 per game. That’s a lot, but if he throws 5 in this matchup you will likely find him in gpp winning lineups. As an aside, Brady is 32 – 3 against the Bills.

Another game stack I am looking at is:

This one opened at a 48.5 total. Patrick Mahomes – $7800 comes in as the highest priced QB and for good reason as he usually throws all over the Raiders. In Week 10 the Chiefs looked like their old selves against the Raiders and their single high safety coverage. In that matchup Tyreek Hill – $8500 turned 10 targets into a 7 grabs for 83 and 2 TDs. The Raiders secondary is dealing with injuries and wasn’t really all that good to begin with. Vegas has given up the 3rd most fantasy points per game to receivers over the last month. Hill moves all over the formation, so the Chiefs will put him multiple spots against a variety of coverages, none of which should scare us away. Additionally, Hill historically smashes in matchups vs the Raiders. Travis Kelce is obviously in play as well, and I expect he’ll be lower owned, but you can also mix in Pringle and Hardman. Pringle is especially interesting because at $3200 he’ll give you leverage off both Guyton and Palmer. I think this stack will be a little underowned because they are so expensive, haven’t been all that great compared to last season, and other stacks like Tampa, the Bills and the Chargers will be easier to get to. I will say this, if the Raider coaches want to keep their jobs, they should probably move off their single high safety scheme.

On the other side of the ball both Josh Jacobs – $6200 and Hunter Renfrow – $6100 stand out. Over the last month Jacobs has received 25 targets for 21 catches and 107 yards. Kenyan Drake is out and Jalen Richard may miss due to the Rona. In addition to the newfound pass catching work, Jacobs’s offensive line will have a run blocking advantage vs KC. Jacobs is one of the safer players on the slate because of matchup and workload. If he finds the endzone once or twice and/or tops 100 yards, then we’re in business. In regards to Renfrow, when the Raiders do not have Waller, Hunter Renfrow has 18 targets, 16 catches, and 160 yards. Renfrow, a predominantly slot receiver, will spend much of his day vs CB Sneed, who is allowing a 76% catch rate. The Raiders have shown their penchant for Renfrow this season, and I don’t think there’s reason to stop here. Also, it would make a ton of sense for Desean Jackson to catch a deep TD the week after I play him.

And lastly:

Dak Prescott – $6700  1.x  with Cedee Lamb – $7200 and Amari Cooper – $5900. 

I’m actually really looking forward to this divisional matchup in which the WFT is trying to get into the playoffs. I do think that the WFT defense has improved significantly in recent weeks but their secondary can still be had. Chase Young and Montez Sweat are out, so the Dallas offensive line should be able to keep WFT at bay and give Dak time to throw. Since Dallas wants to throw, and should be able to, a 300 yard 3 TD performance could be in store for Dak. I’m not sure I would double stack Dak, but instead just use him with one of his pass catchers. As of this writing, Cedee Lamb’s ownership looks nice at 6 or 7%, as does Amari’s at 4%. If you wanted to stack this game, then running it back with Terry McLaurin – $7000 makes the most sense to me as, because of his last 2 weeks, no one will own him.

My RB Pool

Austin Ekeler – $8300

There’s a bunch of things I really like about this play:

1. Allen and Williams might not play cause they are on the Rona list. My belief about Ekeler’s role in this offense has been long documented, and now there are potentially more opportunities available in the passing game.
2. Ekeler fumbled like 35 times against the Bengals and single handedly tried to keep them in the game, which I hope gives folks pause. (Though he is looking at about 20% ownership in gpps.)
3. His offensive line’s run blocking advantage vs the Gmen who allow 105 rushing yards a game.
4. He’s gamescript proof.

Via the run, the pass, or both, Ekeler should be heavily involved for the Chargers on Sunday. If you play him though, you’ll need to get different elsewhere in your lineup. I still have interest at 20% ownership because he probably should be like 30%.

Alvin Kamara – $7900

Kamara is back for the Saints and this week he’ll provide leverage off Ekeler as Alvin will be less owned. As we know, the Jets are terrible and Kamara is the main offensive weapon in this offense. There is definite potential that Taysom will vulture a TD or 2, but there is also potential for Taysom and Kamara to have a rushing TD each, and for for Taysom to throw a TD pass to Kamara.

Antonio Gibson – $6000

At high gpp ownership, Gibson did not disappoint last week. He saw 29 overall opportunities (6 targets) but only found the endzone once and didn’t eclipse 100 yards rushing. I do think he carries ownership again, and as such I’ll probably go elsewhere, especially if McKissic returns.

Saquon Barkley – $6000

Barkley may end up being the leverage play we need in this price range. Jake Fromm is starting for the Gmen on Sunday and the Gmen do not have a high implied team total (17.5) but the matchup is quite good as the Giants have a positive run blocking advantage against the Chargers. Last week’s gamescript between the Chargers and the Bengals did not call for a heavy ground game, but Saquon will likely be New York’s main weapon regardless of gamescript as he gets passing work too. He received 9 checkdowns from long-neck Glennon last week, how many will he see from Fromm?

Javonte Williams – $5900

If MG3 is out, then Williams is your chalk play of the week. Because his breakout game was on national TV, people will be all over him. From a gpp standpoint, I’m actually hoping Melvin Gordon plays, and he did practice this week in a limited capacity so he likely will play. If MG3 doesn’t suit up, then Williams’s ownership will be high. As we know, the Lions run defense is especially bad. I’ll know a little more about projected ownership on Sunday morning.

Chuba Hubbard – $5900

Going to Hubbard over Williams will provide us with leverage this week over the people who will own Williams. I love Javonte, but his coaches don’t love as much as I do since they still give MG3 plenty of run. Also, anyway you slice it, playing Williams is chasing last week’s performance. Hubbard on the other hand will not carry ownership and gets this backfield mostly to himself again. He also gets the Falcons. The Panthers want to run the ball, and yes Cam will probably vulture at least 1 TD, but over a 100 total yards and multiple scores are in play for Hubbard and he’ll be lower owned than Williams.

James Robinson – $5800

This play is not for the faint of heart. Things don’t sound like they are going all that well between players and coaches in Jacksonville and Trevor Lawrence went public about how he thinks this guy should be getting the rock more. Now, I personally am not all that crazy about this play, but Robinson will be practically unowned so the leverage off both Williams and Hubbard is gigantic. I can certainly see the scenario where the squeaky wheel gets the grease, but I can also see Urban Meyer’s ego winning the day and under-utilizing Robinson out of spite.

D’Onta Foreman – $5100

Here’s another RB who will carry little ownership on Sunday. Most people are going to go with Dontrell Hilliard. Now, this is a tough one because Foreman will probably only get 50% of the snaps and not much if any of the receiving work. He will get the early down work and should get the goal line work on early downs as well. Jacksonville has not been good vs the run, especially over the last month. This play is simply about leverage for me. If I have to chose a split backfield player, give me the one who will be less owned who has as good of a chance of providing value.

JaMycal Hasty – $4000

Eli Mitchell is out for San Fran because it wouldn’t be a week in the NFL without a new 49er RB injury to deal with. Hearing that many are assuming Jeff Wilson is now the starter on Sunday. I don’t buy that for a second. Jeff Wilson started a couple weeks ago and was so bad that the 49ers had to put Deebo Samuel in at RB. Hasty is healthy now (at least until the 3rd quarter) and the 49ers, a team that wants to run and is designed to do so, gets a Bengals team that is bottom 10 in the league vs the run. Speaking of Deebo Samuel – $8000 though, he got in a limited practice on Friday and has a chance to play. It’s entirely possible that he returns to getting carries out of the backfield again.

Potential One – Offs

Ja’Marr Chase – $6900 / Tee Higgins – $6400

Higgins has been the guy getting it done for the Bengals. We need to pay attention here as Higgins is a game time decision. This week he gets a 49ers secondary that is allowing the 7th most fantasy points per game to perimeter WRs. Higgins will likely get rookie CB Lenoir who came after CB Moseley got hurt against the Seahawks. Once Lenoir entered the game, the Seahawks immediately targeted him, and he eventually gave up a TD. The Niners then moved CB Johnson over to that spot. It’s unclear what to expect San Fran to do here, but expect CB Norman on Chase and then one of Johnson, Lenoir, or even rookie CB Thomas on Higgins. In any event, Higgins should be fine here. He will likely carry more ownership than Ja’Marr Chase, who let a 70 yard TD escape his grasp and turn into an INT last week. From a game theory perspective I like Chase as he hasn’t been performing as well as Higgins, is priced higher, has a tougher matchup,  and therefore should carry less ownership. I think we find out about Chase’s ability to be a star in this league as early as this week.

DK Metcalf – $6500

One of these slates DK is going to explode on low ownership, and I am not going to miss it. RW3 looked much better last week and now this offense gets the hapless Houston Texans. Teams have elected to beat up Houston on the ground game, but the advantage Metcalf has on these two outside CBs in King and Mitchell is absurd. King is allowing a 78% catch rate while Mitchell weighs 190 lbs and DK is nearly 230. So we are clear, this is a good matchup for Lockett as well, but mark my words, when DK goes for 4 grabs, 100+yards and 2 TDs, I will be there.

D.J. Moore – $6200

Umm…what am I missing with this price? Even with the perceived bad Cam at QB, Moore has still averaged 16.7 DK points with him. The Falcons are ranked 32nd in pressure rate, 29th in Pass DVOA defense, 28th in EPA/Dropback, and sport Pro Football Focus’s # 26 ranked coverage unit. CB Terrell is actually having a really good season and is quickly becoming one of the best CBs in the league, but a good chunk of Moore’s day will be spent against CB Moreau who is among the league leaders in receptions and touchdowns allowed. Moore moves around the formation enough to avoid a shadow situation from Terrrell. Moore’s target share is still high at 28%, and this price is too low.

Taysom Hill – $5600

Taysom came off the injury report and got in a full practice on Friday so we are good to go here against the J.E.T.S. NY is giving away fantasy points to the QB like it’s an early Christmas. If it’s a low QB scoring week, then it’s possible Taysom comes in as one of the highest scoring QBs on the slate. I’m mostly interested in his rushing upside, so I’m mostly likely playing him naked.

Jerry Jeudy – $5600

Hello Lions. I am not sure Jeudy currently has the necessary ceiling to take down a gpp, but the matchup is sweet here. Jeudy gets safety Harris, who has predominately lined up in the slot in the last 2 games because CB Parker has been out. In Week 12, Harris allowed 5 of 6 passes sent his way to be completed for 87 yards. In Week 13, he allowed 2 TDs. Jeudy has been the target leader since his return to action in Week 8. I obviously like Williams and the Bronco ground game better in this spot though.

Jarvis Landry – $5400

Last time Landry played the Ravens (2 weeks ago), he had 6 catches on 10 targets for 111 yards. That was against CB Marlon Humphrey who is not in the lineup for this game because he is done for the season. Since OBJ left, Landry has a 30% target share which is up with the likes of Cooper Kupp and Diontae Johnson, and has put up 14 fantasy points per game. Granted the sample size is small, but the price is right here for Landry who will now be going against a lesser CB…likely Young but that shouldn’t scare anyone. Naturally, my one concern here is that the guy throwing Landry the ball sucks dicks and will somehow fuck it up. I can’t wait for Mitch Trubisky to sign with the Browns in the offseason and steal the QB job in 2022.

TE

I think it’s a situation where you should pay up at TE this Sunday. I know that will be difficult, but you can always add a Dalton Schutlz or Dawson Knox to a stack. I will say this, I will not be playing Kittle this week as he got priced up, will carry more ownership, will see less targets if Deebo plays, and it’s chasing last week.

DST

Fuck…your guess is as good as mine. Obviously I like the top ones in the Chargers and the Broncos, but this is basically a crap shoot as the best defense is the one that will score one or multiple defensive TDs.

I will say this though, the Las Vegas Raiders – $2600 will be unowned. This play takes some serious huevos, but if they change their scheme to a two high safety, then they can give Mahomes and company some trouble.

Where I am at

My QBs this week are Brady with 2 of his pass catchers (Evans will be lower owned), Mahomes and Dak with 1 or 2 of their pass catchers, and Taysom. I am fading Herbert because he’ll be too highly owned. The Boys stack is the lowest owned, so it’s my favorite.

My favorite RB of the week is Josh Jacobs as Waller is out again so the potential for more receptions for Jacobs is there.

Amari Cooper and Cedee Lamb are two of the better leverage plays at WR.

Kelce and Gronk are the safest TEs.