Week 18…that just sounds weird.

Incentives is the name of the game in Week 18. Some teams are incentivized to win for playoff implications or because their coach is an egomaniac/looking to keep his job. Some players on the other hand have literal incentives attached to their contracts or have found themselves in situations where they are incentivized to show off their skills.

Let’s start with the updated playoff picture:

Scenarios:

• Titans clinch 1st Rd bye with win against Texans – 78% chance
• KC clinches 1st Rd bye with win against Denver and a Texans loss – 17% chance
• Bengals clinch 1st Rd by with win against Browns and losses from both Titans and Chiefs – 4% chance
• Bills clinch AFC East with a win against the Jets – 95% chance
• NE clinches AFC East win a win against Miami and a Bills loss – 5% chance
• The winner of Raiders v Chargers makes the playoffs…or they can both make it if they tie and Indy loses.
• Colts clinch playoff berth with win over Jaguars – 81% chance (Colts have not beaten Jaguars outside of Indy since 2014, but Jaguars need a loss to secure No. 1 overall pick in draft).
• Steelers need a win vs Ravens, a loss from Indy, and a non-tie between Chargers and Raiders to clinch a playoff berth – 8% chance
• Ravens need a win and losses from Colts, Chargers and Dolphins to make the playoffs – 4% chance
• Rams clinch NFC West with a win against San Francisco or a Cardinals loss – 75% chance.
• Cardinals clinch NFC West with a win against Seattle and a Rams loss – 25% chance
• 49ers clinch playoff berth with a win against the Rams or a Saints loss to Atlanta – 60% chance (49ers have won last 5 meetings).
• Saints clinch a playoff berth with a win against the Falcons and a 49er loss to the Rams – 40% chance

First thing to note is that the Packers have nothing to play for as they have secured the 1st round bye.

The Chiefs play later today, so Titans and Bengals may change plans depending on how the Chiefs do. Bengals have Covid going through their locker room and Burrow himself as indicated he is not playing so I have no interest there.

Chargers v Raiders are on Sunday night so no need to worry about that one for the Sunday DFS slate.

The Bucs have next to nothing to play for (besides contract incentives which are listed below) as a W would likely only affect their matchups. A W could potentially give them the No. 2 overall seed.

Same goes for the Boys, not much will change for them, though HC McCarthy says everyone is playing….not sure why. Doesn’t matter though as this game is tonight and isn’t on the main slate.

The Eagles have already clinched a playoff berth.

I have minimal interest in teams and players who have nothing to play for. With that being said, on to the players!

Game-stacking Environments

Seattle vs Arizona

This one opened with this highest game total on the slate at 48 points. Kyler Murray – $7400 and the Cardinals have a 25% chance to win the division and secure a home field matchup for the first 2 rounds. I expect the Cards to put pressure on the Rams by coming out and trying to win this game in the 1st quarter. Christian Kirk – $6000 has been averaging about 8 targets a game with no DHop in the lineup. Kirk will run routes against CB Amadi, who is allowing an 83% catch rate, in the slot for much of this game. Amadi is Pro Football Focus’s 118th ranked CB out of 118 CBs.

Additionally, Kirk needs 61 yards to reach 1,000 on the season. I anticipate many will go to shiny, new 2 TD Antoine Wesley – $4100, so for that reason alone I like Kirk and TE Zach Ertz – $5300 who is averaging 10 targets a game over the last 4 weeks. AJ Green – $5400 needs 75 receiving yards for 900 on the season to earn a $250,000 bonus and 10 receptions for 60 on the season to earn another $250,000 bonus.

Over on the other side, I do not expect Russell Wilson – $6300 and company to go gently into that good night. While he was not great in this matchup during Week 11, Russ was still getting back into the swing of things after his injury. While I am not expecting the world here as AZ’s defense is actually decent, I do expect Seattle to put up resistance. As such, I won’t stack Russ, but I am comfortable stacking Kyler with a pass catcher or two, and then running it back with a Seattle receiver.

Rams v SF

This game opened at a 44 total, and I honestly expect that to go up. I’m praying that the ownership is not to high here as I expect this to be one of the more competitive games on Sunday afternoon and there’s a lot incentives for Cooper Kupp – $9700 and Matt Stafford – $6700. Kupp is 135 yards away from the single season receiving yards record established by Megatron in 2012 (Funny thing, Stafford was Megatron’s QB that season too). Kupp is also 171 yards away from 2,000. He has put up over 135 yards exactly 3 times this season, and at no point did he put up 171, though he did have 11 catches for 122 yards against the Niners last time. 12 receptions for Kupp also breaks Michael Thomas’s single season reception record. Stafford is also 243 pass yards away from 50,000 in his career. Additionally, he needs 2 TD’s for 40 TDs on the season to earn an undisclosed contract bonus. Now, despite this, I am not sure how important these records are to McVay, the Rams, Kupp or Stafford, but I do strongly feel that winning the division is, so I expect the Rams to be playing to win against a desperate opponent who has beaten them 5 straight times. OBJ – $5800 and Van Jefferson – $5100 will get matchups against CBs Thomas and Norman who have combined to allow the 5th most fantasy points per game to outside WRs over the last month. Tyler Higbee – $4000 is still the sneakiest in this stack. He played more snaps and saw more targets last week (9) while putting up 6 catches for 69.

On the other side I love me some desperate 49ers. Jimmy G – $5500 returned to practice this week and Trey Lance is priced the same as him in case he is the one who starts. Now I don’t really like the QBs here, but I expect SF to pull out all the stops to get a W. 49ers – $2900 DST had a couple sacks, a couple INTs and a defensive score last time out. While I do not expect that again, I think it’s noteworthy that they showed up, and keep in mind that Mr. Stafford threw 2 picks against a much worse secondary in Baltimore last week. It was also a healthy dose of Eli Mitchell – $6000 who carried the ball 27 times, and it was a Deebo Samuel – $8500 game as he had close to 100 yards on 5 catches with a score, and 35 rush yards with a score there too. George Kittle – $6700 also got involved with a receiving TD as well while also catching 5 balls. My point is that I expect SF to lean on their strengths here, which are the players I have just named. I’m not all that interested in Brandin Aiyuk – $5600 as the CB duo of Ramsay and Williams have been quite good over the last month in limiting outside WRs.

Steelers vs Ravens

Man, this situation keeps changing. Weather and C19 are afoot, so tread lightly.

Tyler Huntley – $5700 is likely going to start again for Baltimore. While the Ravens have minimal to play for, I think they are going to show up 1. to potentially showcase Huntley again and 2. there is no love lost between HC Harbaugh and the Steelers. I know he would love to ruin Roethlisomething’s likely final NFL game and destroy the Steeler playoff hopes. Since his secondary cannot do it, I expect his offense to make the attempt. Over the last 4 weeks of the season, the Steeler defense has been pretty bad against the run. This sets up nicely for the dual threat of Huntley and Devonta Freeman – $5200. Marc Andrews – $7500 and Rashad Bateman – $4900 are stacking options and Hollywood Brown – $5900 is too now that he is off the injury report. He’ll likely be less owned as he and Huntley have not appeared to develop a solid connection yet, but Brown is still seeing 9.3 targets per game over his last 6…positive regression is coming.

I am not at all interested in stacking Big Ben, but both Diontae Johnson – $7600 (who was ruled out due to Covid but is magically back) and Najee Harris – $7200 are in play for me as a run back. This is still a JV secondary and DJ has a 30% target share. Expect him to be heavily featured in a must win for Pitt and Ben’s final game. I typically shy away from the Ravens run D, but Harris is one of 2 players that has any kind of fantasy relevance for Pittsburgh these days.

Other Stacks

Josh Allen – $8100 and the Bills win and get the division. The Jets continue to be terrible. Due to his rushing, you can play Allen naked or stack him with Stefon Diggs – $7800 or Gabe Davis – $4900 or even both as they go up against this secondary that is still not good. Diggs is in line for quite the pay day here as 6 more catches will give him 100 on the year and a $1.55 million dollar bonus. He will also get another $1.55 million if he somehow manages to put up 231 receiving yards. Stacking Devin Singletary – $6000 with Allen is a likely a unique build, and Singletary has a great matchup plus the Bills have made an effort to try and run the ball more in recent weeks. The weather in this one looks like it could be a factor as there is potential for 20+ mph wind gusts. That being said I still think they get Diggs at least the 6 catches.

Tom Brady – $7500 on paper, is not in a situation this week that I really like at all. The win would improve the Bucs standings, and I do expect them to win, but the Panthers D is half decent and the Bucs have a bunch injuries (and cuts) on offense that doesn’t really help them, and the total is only 41.5. So a ceiling game does seem to be in the works. However, a Tom Brady Scortched-Earth game might be just what the doctor ordered to take away the publicity surrounding the Bucs right now. Additionally, check out all these incentives attached to Brady and his contract:

• 488 yards breaks the single season passing record
• A finish in the top 5 in NFL passer rating earns him a $562,500 bonus (currently in 8^th)
• A top 5 finish in completion percentage yields a $562,500 bonus (currently in 13^th)
• A finish in the top 5 in yards per pass attempt earns him a $562,500 bonus (currently in 11^th)

Those are all lofty, but I have to entertain the possibility that he at least tries to accomplish this against a team that literally has nothing to play for and may or may not be resting some of its defensive starters in a meaningless game. Mike Evans – $7100 needs 54 yards to get to his 8th straight year with 1,000 and he practiced in full on Friday. Rob Gronkowski – $6300 has an incentive list that is interesting too:

• 85 receiving yards is 750 on the season and a $500,000 bonus
• c7 receptions is 55 on the season and a $500,000 bonus
• 3 TDs is 9 on the season and a $500,000 bonus

I’m fairly confident Gronk will be earning an extra mil on Sunday. Then again, maybe he’ll get benched and then go partially streaking. Cyril Grayson – $4400 is the shiny new toy who certainly took advantage of AB’s antics to seize an opportunity. Tyler Johnson – $4200 is still the receiver who has taken over slot duties from Chris Godwin; he received 6 targets last week for 4 grabs and 50 yards. Brashad Perriman – $5000 is overpriced but is higher than the other 2 because he’s closer to a household name…he actually might be my favorite play for 2 reasons: 1. He will not be owned and 2. He could very well be the one to come in for Mike Evans after he gets his 54 yards. Ke’Shawn Vaughn – $5300 is in line for RB1 duties with Fournette and RoJo out. Also as a nice little bonus, CB Gilmore is out this week with Covid. If you wanted to run this back with someone, DJ Moore – $5800 is the one I would do it with as Sam Darnold will be playing to try and remain a starter in this league.

Joe Burrow – $7200 said himself he was out for this Sunday. Then he practiced in full on Friday. If the Chiefs lose tonight, I bet he starts. I doubt I’ll get here, but this could be a potentially low owned situation where Ja’Marr Chase – $8300 could potentially set a rookie record with 45 more receiving yards which would break Bill Groman’s single-season record of 1,473. I honestly think Chase does this anyway, but I think the Bengals go for it should the Chiefs lose.

Kirk Cousins – $6100 is not someone I am dying to play, but I’ll just say that against a bad Bears secondary, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Cousins and Justin Jefferson – $8100 do some stat padding at low ownership. I’ll actually go on record and say that Jefferson will get at least 1 TD for 10 on the year, but you’ll need more than that in a gpp.

Potential One-offs

Jonathan Taylor – $9300

In a game that’s next to a must have for Indy, I expect them to lean on Taylor who had 27 DK points vs Jacksonville last time out. Taylor needs 266 rushing yards to reach 2,000 and 2 rushing TDs will yield 20 on the season.

Alvin Kamara – $8300

I kind of like the 1K discount from Taylor here. The Falcons have allowed 19 rush TDs this season, good for 5th most in the league. While they have actually been a little better of late, outside of an injury I do not see any way that Kamara is not heavily featured in this must win game for New Orleans.

A.J. Brown – $7000

The Titans can clinch the No. 1 seed so they are incentivized to win if KC does on Saturday. Brown gets matchups against CBs Mitchell and King. Mitchell is Pro Football Focus’s # 109 ranked CB (out of 118). Since returning from injury, Brown has a 45% target share. I do expect this to be a mostly running game for Tennessee, but that doesn’t mean Brown can’t get his if he has a bunch catches and a score.

Amon-Ra St. Brown – $6800

This dude has come a long way since he was essentially benched on his birthday in LA. I expect GB to play a bunch of practice squad guys this week. The only 2 better WRs over the last 5 weeks than the Sun God are Davante Adams and Cooper Kupp. I know the Lions have nothing to play for, but I believe the coaches are playing for their jobs, so I expect Amon-Ra to be featured again.

Brandin Cooks – $6300

I’m a little hesitant here as Houston doesn’t have anything to play for. That being said, they have been playing competitively and handed the Chargers a surprising loss 2 weeks ago. Cooks has seen over 10 targets in 3 straight with QB Mills and has close to a 30% target share. The Texans are giving up the 2nd most fantasy points per game to WRs. I think Mills is playing for a starting job as well, so when Houston’s porous defense gives up points to Tennessee, I expect Houston to take to the air. Additionally, if Cooks gets 13 receptions, then that’s 100 on the season for a $200,000 bonus. I’m curious if Houston, shitbag organization that it is, wants to pay him that though.

Taysom Hill – $6200

The Saints need a win and Taysom is one of 2 fantasy relevant players in New Orleans. Oh yeah, also the Falcons blow vs QBs.

Terry McLaurin – $6200

He won’t be owned. He needs 40 yards to reach 1,000 on the season. He had his best game of the year in Week 2 vs CB Bradberry and these New York Giants (14 targets, 11 catches, 107 yards, 1 TD) whom F1 is developing a nice little reputation of playing really well against. Yes, the Admirals have nothing to play for, but because of the things mentioned above, he will be in my player pool.

D’Onta Foreman – $5700

Yes, I know Henry could be activated from IR and likely see some action on Sunday. I don’t see the Titans taking the chains of their prized RB on the eve of the playoffs. I think they give Henry a little action, then let Foreman run the Texans terrible run D into the ground, get the W and secure the bye, then give Henry even more time to get up to speed before their first playoff game. If the Chiefs somehow lose tonight, I like this play even less as I would then expect the Texans to make sure both Foreman and Henry are not banged up. Should that happen, Dontrell Hilliard – $5200 might become a play.

Jaret Patterson – $5300

It makes no sense for the Washington Admirals to play an injured Antonio Gibson when this team has nothing to play for. Then again, most of what this team does makes no sense to me. The Gmen are not good vs the run.

Patrick Taylor – $4000

Your likely new starting RB for the Green Bay Packers on Sunday. While I do not think the Packers are trying for anything, they will have to do something on offense. I’m betting they hand it off a lot against one of the worst run defenses in the league. With the Packers likely resting both Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon, Taylor is in line to see a majority of the carries. Believe it or not, I expect him to carry ownership, so I will be monitoring that on Sunday morning.

DST

Mostly a crapshoot still but I really like how the New Orleans Saints – $3400 have been playing. This game is meaningful and the Falcons are not good at football.

“Washington Football Team” – $3100 should be playing in a little weather and be able to get to… Fromm? That’s right, I think Fromm is starting. The Bears defense just put up 21 DK points vs the Gmen.

Where I’m at

QB Pool: Kyler, Stafford, Huntley, Brady, Allen, maybe Cousins…I may even get wild and do an Admiral stack.

RB: Everyone mentioned in the article…I suspect I’ll land on a lot of Patrick Taylor with everything I’m trying to squeeze in. I’m concerned that that will be a popular build on Sunday though. James Conner is probably my favorite if Edmonds is out.

WR: As long as the weather isn’t too bad, Diggs is a priority add for me with north of $3 million on the table.

TE: Gronk for the incentives otherwise I’ll pair Andrews with Huntley, Ertz with Kyler, Higbee with Stafford, and maybe I’ll use Kittle.