Welcome to Super Wildcard Weekend and you’re welcome Westwood One for the free advertising!

Draftkings has a few different slates out for this weekend, the 3 that I am playing are:

• Saturday Only 2 Game Slate
• Saturday – Monday 6 game Slate
• Sunday Only 3 Game Slate

The 6 game slate and the Saturday Only start at 4:30 today. I’m not sure how overly important it is to get into the Saturday-Monday contests though as they are not “featured” contests on DraftKings, which basically means the contests are not as good in terms of potential payout. It does, however, mean that there are less entries so it is “easier” to win from a numbers perspective. Since the name of the game is “Daily Fantasy Sports,” I suppose it makes sense that the contests that range 3 days are not the best ones. That being said, Draftkings seems to have no problem making great contests for PGA slates, and those take place over the span of 4 days. But…

Players are priced different depending on what slate you play this weekend. For that reason, I am not posting player pricing this week. Additionally, all player’s prices are a little deflated (except for Cooper Kupp but even his is a little lower) as it’s Draftkings way of trying to diversify ownership and lineup builds. As such, there are much more ways to squeeze in studs, so ownership takes on an even greater role. Where it is relevant though, price vs potential ceiling, I will point it out.

To the players!

SATURDAY (Kickoff in a couple hours!)

Las Vegas @ Cincinnati

Cincy -5.5

O/U 48

This game opened at Cincy -6.5 so the money is coming in on the Raider side, which I think is a side effect from their performance on Sunday night. It’s hard to want to get to Derek Carr. His ceiling is 28 DK points, and he hasn’t hit that since Week 1. In fact, he’s only been over 20 once since Week 9 and that includes a 10.6 vs these Bengals in Week 11. He’s priced at $5500 on the 6 game slate so while the savings are enticing, the chances that he is the optimal QB on any slate is low. I kind of like Hunter Renfrow though. Last time the Raiders played the Bengals Renfrow was held to 4 grabs for 30 yards. I’m hoping that many will see that and just move on, thus driving Renfrow’s ownership lower. Since Week 11, Renfrow has taken on a larger role in this passing attack and Cincinnati has given up the 3rd most fantasy points per game to slot receivers this season; additionally, they have given up the most over the last month. It’s probably a good thing that Darren Waller got some work in during the season finale. Waller had 7 catches for 116 yards last time vs the Bengals and Moreau vultured a TD from him too. The Bengals are top 6 in receptions, receiving yards, receiving TDs, and fantasy points allowed to TEs this season. Josh Jacobs ended up being a top 5 RB in receptions during the 2021 campaign. Bengals are giving up the 12th most fantasy points per game and the 5th most receptions to RBs. Just be careful here though because Jalen Richard basically came into the game on every 3rd down and nearly every passing situation, so I don’t anticipate Jacobs to continue to see as many targets, which could limit his ceiling. Ultimately though, Jacobs, Waller and Renfrow are in my player pool as the Raiders will likely need a big day from at least 1 if not 2 of them in order to be competitive. Zay Jones is also averaging about 9 targets a game over his last 4 as well as 13.6 fantasy points per game.

In week 11 Joe Mixon ran all over the Raiders to the tune of 30 carries for 123 yards and 2 TDs. If you watched the tragedy of no tie last Sunday, you likely noticed that Austin Ekeler was having quite the day against this team before the Chargers, for some reason, decided to completely ignore him down the stretch of the game. I was actually surprised that the Chargers even forced OT based on the way they were running their offense during the 4th quarter and in OT. It was a one-dimensional offense called “Everyone run a 10 to 15 yard route and Herbert will throw it.” Ekeler was completely scripted out despite LA having a full arsenal of timeouts. It’s kind of mind boggling. In any event…I have a TON of interest in Joe Mixon this week as he, like Ekeler, has a dominant role in this offense. If you are playing the Saturday only slate, I expect him to be chalky, but I also think he might be close to a must have. I’m hoping his ownership on the larger slate is lower. Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are a 1A/1B receiver duo for Cincinnati. I am interested in whichever receiver will carry less ownership here, and it’s basically that simple. Joe Burrow, who only had 10 DK points himself in this matchup last time, is in play as the Bengals didn’t need to air it out last time, but might have to a little more here. Tyler Boyd, on the 2 game slate at least, is probably going to carry ownership since he has TDs in 3 straight games. How long does that last? He has a tough matchup too against slot CB Hobbs who is having a good year. Las Vegas has given up the second fewest fantasy points to slot receivers all season. CJ Uzomah is a sneakier option that I would include in a Burrow stack or a full game stack.

FWIW, I expect this game to be closer than the 32 – 13 drubbing the Bengals put on this team in Week 11. If you’ve seen Jurassic Park, you know that Chaos Theory suggests things never repeat.

Except maybe the plot-line for every sequel.

New England @ Buffalo

Buffalo -4.5

O/U 44

This is going to take a total team effort from the Pats. On offense they are going to have to keep the Bills defense constantly guessing, so I expect multiple, different looks with different RBs, TEs and WRs. I do think Damien Harris gets the majority of the carries and goal line looks, so his opportunity is better than most. He has reached the end zone in 10 of his last 11 games scoring 14 total TDs during this span. Against Buffalo he has stat lines of 10-111-1 and 18-103-3. I expect the Pats to employ a slow, plodding game, similar to the one they ran in Buffalo a few weeks ago, and thus keep the ball away from the Bills offense as much as possible. I’m really only interested in the Pats running game here as there just is not real ceiling potential in the Pats passing attack these days. As such Rhamondre Stevenson and Brandon Bolden are interesting but considering the pricing, Bolden makes more sense as someone who sees passing down work (and played 49% of the snaps vs Buffalo last time but they were also trailing). Hunter Henry could catch a TD or 2, and Jakobi Meyers could potentially get there with volume, but that’s basically it for me. As an aside, early on it looks like Jacobs, who is close in price to Harris, will be higher owned than Harris…if that’s the case then just give me Harris.

Josh Allen was the highest scoring QB in fantasy this season, and I am honestly considering a full fade on the 6 game slate here. He is the highest priced QB and last time out vs the Pats he put up 34 DK points. I’m simply playing the odds, and hopefully the ownership, that he doesn’t do that again. On the Saturday only slate, however, he could score 20 DK points and be the highest scoring QB. Allen has had 60 or more rush yards in 4 of his last 5 games and on top of that he has averaged 60 yards rushing in 4 career playoff games, so the running upside is something I like. However, I expect the Pats to do their utmost to limit both Allen’s offensive options, and his overall time with the football. I could see this game as CB JC Jackson’s coming out party. In subsequent years the fantasy industry is going to be referring to him as a shutdown corner and one of the best in the league. So tread lightly with Stefon Diggs who looks to be 50% owned in the 2 game slate. Devin Singletary has been playing 70% of the snaps and is getting 20+ opportunities per game. Opposing defenses have been blanketing the Bills with 2 high safeties which are taking away deep passing opportunities. In response, the Bills are using 2 TE sets and handing off more, which is reducing snaps, targets, catches and fantasy points for the likes of Cole Beasley, Dawson Knox and Gabe Davis. As such, Singletary is likely going to carry ownership and considering his recent role that makes a ton of sense, just know that most Saturday only lineups will have Mixon and Singletary as the RBs. Emmanuel Sanders looks like he might play, and no one knows what his usage is going to be so he will be low owned. I can see Buffalo setting up some gadget plays for Isaiah McKenzie, but I don’t expect a repeat performance from the last matchup with the Pats and I doubt Bellichick allows such a thing to happen anyway.

FWIW, I expect the Pats to send multiple confusing looks the Bills way tonight and for this to be a low scoring affair. The Patriots simply cannot afford to get into a shootout. However, if the Bills win, it’s because Allen overcomes it and has a good or at least decent night passing and rushing the football.

Where I am at for the 2 game slate:

QB – Burrow or Allen

RB – 3 RBs is a build I like, Mixon might be a lock.

WR – Ownership numbers has Chase at 60% and Diggs at 50%; fading both would make you unique. Sanders will be low owned.

TE – Variety is the spice of life.

DST – All of them, though Pats are my favorite…potentially even in lineups with Allen at QB.

SUNDAY

Philadelphia @ Tampa Bay

Tampa -8

O/U 46

This games opened at a 49.5 O/U and Bucs -9.5. The significant change is due to potential weather. Monitor that, but at this point it seems like an overreaction.

Jalen Hurts is averaging 21.4 fantasy points per game and if the Eagles were to advance, then I would think this guy needs to have a big day and potentially reach his ceiling. The Bucs defense’s bread and butter is stopping the run, so it’s possible that Hurts is forced to air it out this week/take off running when the pocket collapses. As such, I’m a full fade on the Eagles RBs as their coaching staff is like a teenaged version of myself trying to pick out a movie at Blockbuster. JUST PICK ONE GOD DAMNIT!!!! I also think the Eagles play from behind here so I am hoping for Hurts to find himself in hurry up situations, which are potential fantasy gold mine scenarios. You can stack Hurts with Dallas Goedert, who didn’t play in the previous matchup with Tampa, but Zach Ertz scored a TD and got 6 targets that game. Goedert leads the team with a 24% target share and the Bucs have allowed the 6th most receptions to the TE position this season. DeVonta Smith is in play as well as he is just behind Goedert in target share, and his low ownership makes for good leverage.

Rob Gronkowski faces an Eagles defense that is giving up the most fantasy points per game to TEs this season. Mike Evans faces a secondary that has been pretty decent this year and he’ll likely go up against CBs Slay and Maddox who are solid players. I expect Evans to still be utilized and he could still have a big day, but it isn’t like this is a matchup that needs to be targeted. Cyril Grayson is doubtful, so expect Breshad Perriman to be the starting opposing perimeter WR and for Tyler Johnson to man the slot. Leonard Fournette is questionable, but is trending toward playing. If he plays he should be featured in the passing game. The Eagles have also been the 2nd worst team vs RBs over the last 4 weeks, and Fournette is also priced way too low. I will be using Tom Brady and I will be stacking him with 2 of his pass catchers (of which I consider Fournette one) and running it back with Goedert or Smith.

San Francisco @ Dallas

Dallas -3

O/U 51

These 2 have had some good matchups over the years…

Dak Prescott and the Cowboys face a 49ers run defense that is real good, best in the league over the last month actually. So Dak is going to have to throw, which he has been doing a lot of lately, in order to beat them. The 49ers secondary is battling some injuries, but despite that they did a decent job of limiting the Rams outside WRs, OBJ and Van Jefferson, last week but got beat consistently by slot WR Kupp and TE Higbee. Cedee Lamb mans the slot for the Cowboys and Dalton Schultz has proven to be reliable when called upon and is actually tied for the team lead in targets over the last month. In a TE heavy playoff format, he makes for a nice contrarian play, especially when you consider that LB Greenlaw may be forced into TE coverage; Greenlaw is allowing a 100% catch rate to TEs. Lamb does look like he is coming in with high ownership, and I’m starting to think he’s dealing with some kind of injury because honestly he is much better than the numbers he currently is putting up. If he’s going to be high owned, and he isn’t really producing right now, then I’ll look elsewhere. Amari Cooper is talented enough to overcome tough coverage (but again, SF is banged up), is healthy, and is a key piece to the Cowboy offense, so he shouldn’t be forgotten. He’ll like face the tandem of Thomas and Moseley at CB. Just off IR, Moseley is decent but Thomas ranks 117th of 120 CBs per Pro Football Focus. Cedrick Wilson is new Michael Gallup for Dallas and shouldn’t be ignored here either.

Deebo Samuel enters this game averaging 21.7 fantasy points per game over his last 8 and continues to see use as a runner and receiver, and he even threw a TD last week. He’ll probably kick a field goal this week. If the Niners are going to win, or even be competitive, then Deebo should factor in. Deebo looks like he will be about 30% owned on the 3 game slate, so likely even lower on the 6 game. When he plays, Elijah Mitchell is the clear lead back and receives the majority of snaps and touches. He should be the lead back on Sunday and with everyone healthy, he looks like he is TD and 100 yard dependent in order to reach his ceiling as he simply has not gotten passing game work. Since you asked, over the last 4 weeks the Boys have been the 10th best team vs the run allowing an average of 19.93 fantasy points to RBs. Since Deebo does eat into RB shares, a ceiling game for Mitchell will be a challenge. That being said, 15 DK points at his $5500 salary might not be too bad. George Kittle is likely going to carry little ownership based on recent performances. We have seen, however, that he has the ability to win a slate. During Weeks 13 and 14, Kittle saw 12 and 15 targets; the highest he has seen since is 7, which was last game. If we put a microscope over his big performances, we see that one game was vs Seattle, the Niners were playing catchup ball, and Deebo was not in the lineup. In the other game vs Cincinnati, Deebo played but was nursing an injury, Mitchell was out, and the game went to OT.  With everyone healthy, it’s tough to see a monster game out of Kittle, but something like a 7 target, 6 catch, 70 yards and a TD game is not unimaginable. Brandon Aiyuk has been putting up some more consistent performances of late but could receive the CB Trevon Diggs treatment on Sunday. Juan Jennings had a career game last week at near zero ownership, odds say he doesn’t do it again and his ownership will likely be higher.

Pittsburgh @ Kansas City

KC – 2.5

O/U 46

These two played each other a couple weeks ago and it wasn’t pretty. Not too many are giving Pittsburgh any kind of shot here, and rightfully so, but stranger upsets have happened. Najee Harris gets a Kansas City 20th ranked run defense that is allowing 4.6 yards per carry and has given up the 4th most receptions to RBs. He does, however, have an elbow issue and has been limited at practice. HC Tomlin has assured all that Harris will play on Sunday though. I don’t completely trust him though so monitor that. Diontae Johnson has reached double-digit targets in 12 games this season and gets a Chief defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to receivers over the final month of the regular season. DJ sports a 30% target share and the Steelers will likely be trailing in this game. Chase Claypool could always factor in and Pat Freiermuth is somewhere you could get different, but you are banking on a TD from noodle arm Roethlisomething. DJ and Harris are pretty much it for me. You could get sneaky with the Pitt DST, especially if Mahomes and company are high owned…speaking of which…

I think the KC offense is going to be high owned, especially on the Sunday 3 game slate. While it makes all the sense in the world, I am falling more in love with fading massive chalk. Tyreek Hill and Darrel Williams were both nearly 90% owned against Denver last weekend and they both busted! While I’m not saying that’s going to happen again, I’m simply pointing out the gargantuan

advantage you get if you fade a situation like that. Now while I don’t expect these guys to carry ownership like that again, I simply want to point out that the KC offense has been inconsistent this year and it’s getting harder and harder to predict which receiver or RB is going to go off in a given matchup; throw in an INT or possible fumble recovery for a TD, and you’re in business with the Steeler D. However, there is no doubting the talent of Patrick Mahomes and his potential to go nuclear in any game. I anticipate that CB Maulet, who is allowing a 72% catch rate, will be a frequent target for the Chiefs. If Hill is healthy, then he is that guy. If he is not, then Mecole Hardman is that guy. As you likely noticed last week, it was Hardman who stepped in for Hill after Hill got banged up during warmups. Travis Kelce is in play of course too and has looked much better in his last few games. Byron Pringle has been seeing more snaps and targets than Demarcus Robinson, but it’s tough to see either getting significant targets, so a long TD is what either would need to be in the winning lineup. The KC RB situation is mirky at best. Traditionally speaking, HC Reid commits to one lead RB. That being said, the last time these team played, 3 RBs got near equal work. CEH has been ruled out, so it’s Williams, Derrick Gore, or Jerick McKinnon. The Steelers are giving up the 4th most fantasy points to RBs over the last month.

Where I’m at for the Sunday 3 game slate:

QB: Dak and Hurts are my favorites, but I will have Brady and Mahomes stacks too.

RB: Fournette, Mitchell, Harris, and maybe a Boys RB in my Dak stacks.

WR: The health of Tyfreek and his status is huge. It’s possible that this slate gets broken by Deebo.

TE: Gronk, Goedert, Schultz and Kelce are all in play.

DST: Hard not to like the 3 favorites.

MONDAY

Arizona @ LA

Rams -3.5

O/U 49

I’ve said this before; I’m not all that interested in Kyler Murray unless he is going to run the ball. The last time he faced the Rams, however, he threw for 383 yards and ran for 61. He had 2 INTs and didn’t score a single TD though. James Conner is my absolute favorite RB as long as Edmonds doesn’t play. The Rams run D is tough, but Conner has become gamescript proof due to his role in the Cardinals passing game. Conversely, I have interest in Chase Edmonds should Conner miss. Zach Ertz has been averaging 10.8 targets per game to close out the season. The Rams are top 10 in receptions allowed to TEs. Christian Kirk will go up against slot CB Deayon. Over the last month the Rams are giving up the 10th most fantasy points to slot receivers. CBs Ramsay and Williams have been doing quite well limiting outside WRs. Outside WR AJ Green did decently during the regular season in this matchup, but that was with DHop in the lineup.

I probably don’t need to tell you that Cooper Kupp should be considered, but in case I do, he gets slot CB Murphy who is the 82nd graded CB by Pro Football Focus. In Week 14 vs AZ, Kupp saw 15 targets for 13 catches, 123 yards and 1 TD. Arizona has given up the 5th most fantasy points to slot WRs over the last 8 weeks of the season. The Cardinals defense has been pretty good vs RBs down the stretch, so I don’t have much interest in Sony Michel with Cam Akers likely taking some snaps away. However, Sony is only $5400, so if he lucks into 2 rushing TDs, then that probably makes him a really good play. Speaking of the Cards defense though, they have been giving up points to the QB position so Matt Stafford should be considered despite his inner Lion showing up a little during the 2nd half of the season. OBJ has been getting more targets than Van Jefferson and the Cards have been the 2nd worst team vs WRs over the last month. They have been stingy to TEs, so Tyler Higbee does not have an easy path to production.

Where I’m at for the 6 game slate:

QB: Burrow, Dak, and Hurts, though Stafford is interesting.

RB: Mixon, Fournette, Conner if Edmonds is out, Edmonds if Conner is out, Mitchell, and Harris.

WR: Having both Deebo and Kupp might be a unique build.

TE: 2 TE lineups might be unique and very viable this week, and I would make sure one is stacked with my QB.

DST: Whichever one scores a TD. If you know which one that is going to be, please tell me in the comments!