Beyond making you, and me, really want a cheeseburger right now…the triple stack (QB with 3 of his teammates) may be the way to go.

I have vowed to myself not to be surprised by RB usage this weekend. This was me when I played Gio Bernard at low ownership last weekend and when watching the game realized he was RB1:

But this was me realizing that Jerick McKinnon and Cam Akers were getting RB1 reps:

It is not going to happen again. Oh what’s that Tampa? You’re going to activate Fournette this week? I’ll be ready. CEH is back for KC and might be RB1, I’m on it. Derrick Henry may or may not be limited, won’t get past me. I vow to figure this out with or without the help of people who don’t do their jobs.

Draftkings main slate is the two-day, 4 game slate. (For Fanduel and SuperDraft it’s the 2 game slate.) It starts in a couple hours.

Cincinnati @ Tennessee

Tennesse -3.5

O/U 47

Joe Burrow – $6600 gets the Titans whose opponents been have throwing against their secondary frequently. Tennessee’s secondary has allowed the 7th most passing yards to opposing QBs during the regular season and the 10th most fantasy points. Ja’Marr Chase – $7100 is coming off a game where he saw a 35% target share. The Titans have allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing receivers this season. I would expect Tee Higgins – $5700 to have his fantasy points per game average to go back to the mean, so he should be in for a better day at less ownership. The Titans are one of the best teams against the run, #2 over the last 4 months of the regular season to be exact. Joe Mixon – $6600 will have a tough time achieving a ceiling via running the ball, however, he does get looks in the receiving game and could be a nice checkdown option for Burrow in a possible trailing gamescript. He will likely need to find the endzone a minimum of one time in order to be one of the highest scoring backs on the weekend. Tyler Boyd – $4800 and CJ Uzomah – $3400 will be lesser owned but can be included in Burrow stacks. If using a triple stack, the TE often gets left off, so making sure Uzomah is there would make your triple stack lineup more unique. I don’t expect this to be easy sledding for Burrow though. His offensive line is the worst one left in terms of protection rate, which basically means he’s going to have to get the ball out quick against a healthy and rested Titan pass rush. I think at least one of his receivers has a big day, but I’m not sure Burrow comes in as the highest scoring QB on the weekend.

Derrick Henry – $7500 is off IR. The Bengals defense is giving up 4.3 yards per attempt and is allowing the 7th most rush yards over the last 4 weeks of the season. What we need to figure out is if Henry will immediately return to his workhorse back role with 20+ carries. It’s possible that he only gets something like 15 carries, but it’s also possible he carries the rock 25 times…either scenario might be enough to do damage. D’Onta Foreman – $5400 might still get snaps and carries if Henry is on a pitch count, then Foreman could make for a good contrarian play should he be the one to score multiple TDs and/or be the back who gets the late handoffs if they are up big. If I’m the Titans though, why would I hold Henry back now with a potential championship on the line? A.J. Brown – $6200 could be the contrarian play we need this weekend. Since returning from injury, Brown has a 34% target share, averaging 9 targets a game. The Bengals have given up the 12th most receptions and 12th most fantasy points to opposing WRs this season. If the Bengals somehow get out in front in this matchup and make things hard for the Titan running game, then Brown becomes interesting. Anthony Firkser – $3100 has begun to be featured more in the passing game of late and could catch a TD. I’m not really interested in any other Titan WR or TE (which I’ll admit could be my downfall), especially Julio as he will go up against CB Awuzie who is having a pretty good year, and Julio is not. FWIW the Bills, Chiefs, and Rams have all lost to the Titans, but Tennessee had some key parts of their offense out down the stretch of the season. However,  many of their games were against the likes of Houston (lost once and was a close game the other time), Jacksonville, Miami, and Pittsburgh (also a loss). Cincy could be the toughest opponent they have had in some time.

San Francisco @ Green Bay

Green Bay -6

O/U 47.5

I’ve got the feeling that I’m not the only one who frequents DFO who thinks his name should be Aaron Fraudgers – $7100, but for the purposes of analysis, we need to take a look at the situation in which he finds himself tonight. In Week 3, an outing the Packers won by 2 points on a last possession drive, Karen completed 70% of his attempts for 261 yards and 2 TDs. Davante Adams – $8500 has a 32% target share. In that week 3 matchup he had 12 grabs for 132 yards and a TD. The 49ers have actually done a decent job of limiting WRs over the last 2 weeks in a bend but don’t break sort of way but they are still vulnerable. CBs Moseley and Thomas should have their hands full trying to contain Adams. Allen Lazard – $4400 will run routes out of the slot vs CB Williams who on the season is allowing a 77.2% catch rate. Lazard has a had a few good games in a row and is averaging 5.7 targets a game over his last 6 and continues to be targeted in the redzone. MVS – $4300 is someone who catches a long TD every 5-6 games. A deep shot or 2 vs this secondary might be on the menu tonight. If you want someone sneaky, Randall Cobb – $3100, if he gets activated from IR, could be an option this week if he were to haul in a few grabs and find the endzone. The 49ers have one of the best rush defense so the Green Bay RBs will have difficulty reaching their ceilings… unless they are also featured in the passing game, which Aaron Jones – $6800 typically is. Aaron Jones looks like he is not going to be owned. Despite the 49er solid rush defense, Jones has received 18 opportunities per game and put up 13.7 Dk points or better in 4 straight games. He practiced in full as early as this past Tuesday so it should be wheels up for Jones tonight. He makes for a fantastic leverage play on a 4 game slate, especially against Mixon who looks to be much more owned. AJ Dillon – $5100 will likely see something like 12 – 15 opportunities. He’s a couple TDs or an Aaron Jones injury away from being the best play on the slate at this price.

Elijah Mitchell – $5800 has rushed the ball 20 or more times in 6 straight games. Since the beginning of December, he’s averaged 24.6 attempts per game. Green Bay’s run defense, ranked 28th – 30th depending on which metric you use, is a better matchup for the 49ers to attack than the GB secondary which is likely getting CB Alexander back. The 49ers will likely lean on Mitchell and Deebo Samuel – $7600 heavily. In the Week 3 matchup with GB, George Kittle – $5300 got 9 targets for 7 grabs and 92 yards. The Packers rank bottom 10 vs TEs and have allowed the 11th most fantasy points to the position. However, that was before Mitchell was solidified as the lead RB in this backfield as SF handed the ball off to 6 different RBs that game. Last week the Niners kept Kittle in on the line as a predominantly blocking TE. Jimmy Garropolo – $5200 offers a bunch of savings at the QB spot, but the matchup isn’t great and if he were to hit his ceiling of something like 24 -26 DK points, then all the other QBs on this slate will have to have low scoring games.

Let it be known here and now that I think the 49ers win this game, and at the very least keep it close. If that’s going to happen, then the likely scenario is that the SF run game does quite well with Mitchell and Deebo. I also do not think either QB in this game is going to have a monster outing as both teams employ their run game fairly heavy and don’t run a ton of plays.

LA Rams @ Tampa Bay

Tampa -3

O/U 48.5

Matthew Stafford – $6200 is in play for me, especially if you think the Rams end up trailing in this game. However, the Bucs have been using both Cover 2 and Cover 3 in their secondary. Stafford has no equal against Cover 2 in the NFL, he’s the best, but he’s one of the worst vs Cover 3, surrendering 3 INTs and 0 TDs vs Cover 3 in his last 4 games. ‘Why don’t teams use Cover 3 against him all the time then?????’ The only possible answer I can give you is personnel and in-game situations. If I can find out such a thing, then you would think DC Bowles could too right? RIGHT???

Obviously you can add Cooper Kupp – $8600 and OBJ – $5300 but I think Tyler Higbee – $4000 is in play as well in a Stafford stack. I’m not big on Van Jefferson – $4200 as he only got one target last week and his overall role has gone down as OBJ’s has increased. However, he’s one long TD away from me regretting not playing him. The Rams want to run the ball and it looks like they have two headed monster in Sony Michel – $5300 and Cam Akers – $5500. Akers saw 19 total looks (17 rush and 2 targets) while Michel saw 13 rush attempts. I think it’s important to note that Michel was still the goal line back, but the overall opportunities went to Akers. He has 2 long runs called back and just barely missed a long TD against Arizona. In week 18, Akers saw 20% of the snaps. Last week he saw 53% including pass blocking work. This week? I think he sees 65 – 70% of all usage. The tough part here though is that the Bucs defense is good against RBs, but the Rams offense is also creative enough with its play calling and good with its O-line run blocking to put Akers in a chance to do well. If the Rams are trailing…it’s a Stafford pass game, and Akers is the receiving back.

There’s no sugar coating this: the Bucs are beat up nearly everywhere. The most important are C Jensen and OT Wirfs both hadn’t practiced all week until Friday, in which they got in limited work. That’s a shot to the Bucs offensive line who is already going to have its hands full if they aggravate their injuries. WR Perriman has been ruled out, as has RB RoJo. WR Grayson is banged up but is on track to play. If Leonard Fournette – $5700 is active this week, and he has been practicing, then he will receive the majority of snaps, handoffs and targets out of the backfield. He’s also their best blocker, and he might really be needed there. The good thing about that role is the slip screens the Bucs employ, so Fournette could be in line for a good amount of targets. The Rams are middle of the pack vs the run, so I expect the Bucs to attempt to establish it with Fournette as well. Gio Bernard – $5000 is off the injury list and will serve as the backup here and see the field. He could always catch a random TD. Tom Brady – $6800 is going to have to have a good performance for the Bucs to advance. Mike Evans – $6800 and Rob Gronkowski – $5800 should be expected contributors, but where they go after that is a mystery due to their injury issues. Tyler Johnson – $3700 might see more work, but he was drawing the ire of Brady last week. Scotty Miller – $3300 saw more snaps last week, looked good, and could figure more into the offense tomorrow. Cameron Brate – $2700 has the same role in the offense and gets redzone opportunities. A super sneaky play is OJ Howard – $2500 who saw the field a whole lot more last week than at any other time this season. He only got 1 target, but he will be unowned. I’ll only use him in my Brady triple burgers and hope I still like the taste.

Buffalo @ Kansas City 

KC -2

O/U 55

Josh Allen – $7600 is the most expensive QB on the slate and for good reason. He surprised me last week with the train that he ran on the NE defense, basically going Madden NFL ’94 on what I thought was a pretty good defense. In week 5 vs these Chiefs Allen went for over 300 yards and 3 TDs, and he added 59 rush yards and another score. There is no other QB on the slate who has the rushing upside that Allen possesses, therefore his ceiling is the highest. I still hope these Bills and their bandwagon fans lose, but I’m not missing out on the money making opportunity here and will be using Allen. Stefon Diggs – $6500 gets a Chiefs secondary that is giving up the 4th most fantasy points per game to perimeter WRs over the final 8 weeks of the season. He will get CBs Hughes and Ward who have been inconsistent. Diggs enters this game with a 26% target share and an average of nearly 10 targets a game. With Diggs being the lone piece of the Buffalo offense that New England was able to contain, I like him to garner more DK points this time around. Same thing applies here as with Burrow, if you’re going to triple stack the Bills, I would consider including Dawson Knox – $4900 as the TE is usually left off. That being said, I do not think he catches 2 TDs again, though he did have 1 TD and 117 yards on 3 grabs in Week 5. Isaiah McKenzie – $3500 has been seeing more snaps and running more routes than Cole Beasley – $4000 and has been seeing work as an RB, albeit only a little as Devin Singletary – $5900 is seeing 95% of his team’s RB opportunities. Singletary’s floor is probably the best on the slate for RBs. Emmanuel Sanders – $4100 and Gabe Davis – $4600 basically split the work as WR2. Sanders saw 28 snaps, ran 16 routes, and got 3 targets catching 1 for a TD; Davis had 40 snaps, ran 18 routes, also saw 3 targets, and also caught 1 for a TD. So basically I think everyone is in play here except for Mr. Beasley. I’ll be triple stacking Allen with a variety of his guys, but my favorite build is either Singletary/Diggs/Knox or Singletary/Diggs/McKenzie.

Supposedly the Bills designed their entire defensive secondary scheme around the goal of being able to stop Tyreek Hill – $6600. Since he put up 9 catches and 172 yards against them in last season’s AFC championship game, I suppose that makes sense. If we look back on this matchup from Week 5, Hill was “limited” to 7 catches for 63 yards. 13.3 DK points may not be enough here, especially if we want to stack this game and hope for a shootout. With a 55 total, I expect many will gravitate toward this matchup with the same hope. That’s why getting different on the Bill side with Knox or McKenzie makes sense. On the Chiefs side Patrick Mahomes – $7300 is definitely in play as well. He has the second best rushing upside for a QB on the slate and has gone over 20 DK points in 6 straight games. In week 5 vs the Bills, he had 22. While the matchup is going to be tough, and the Chiefs offense has not been the same juggernaut that it was, it might have to be to beat Bills. So that being said, I think you can definitely use Hill as he could still see 13 targets on underneath routes as opposed to the routes he sees downfield. Byron Pringle – $4200 is in play as he has taken over the slot routes and the underneath passing should be there. He also has good numbers against Cover 4, which the Bills defense employs often. Mecole Hardman – $3900 has not been seeing downfield usage and will likely not see it against the Bills, but this guy has the speed to take a WR screen, jet sweep, or slant route to the house at any time. Travis Kelce – $6500 can obviously be paired with Mahomes too and has a history of success vs this team. As I pointed out last week, HC Reid is historically a coach who employs one RB only, kinda like a submarine captain who employs one ping only….

it’s just who is that RB going to be this week? TBH, Jerick McKinnon – $4800 probably fits this offense the best based on his skill set. But…

he is injury prone and will be owned more this weekend. CEH – $5200 practiced in full this week…but I trust this guy as far as I can throw him. Darrell Williams – $4200 is banged up with a toe issue, practiced in limited capacity yesterday, is in the doghouse because he had a Fumble-6 last week, and now he has two guys ahead of him on the depth chart. Until further notice, which honestly could be an injury in the 1st quarter, McKinnon is the guy. (DISCLAIMER: McKinnon is probably not the guy.) Like last week, the entire slate could hinges on who the RB1 for KC is.