It’s that time of year again, when the weather warms up, the trees and flowers start to bloom, and the Jets do something incredibly dumb in the first-round of the NFL Draft. In other words, it’s time for my annual mock draft. We’re looking to improve on last year’s 5/32 performance, but almost certainly won’t given what appears to be an unprecedented amount of chaos, (“Chaos reigns, the center cannot hold”, says WB Yeats, who remains blissfully unaware of Tyler Biadasz), leading up to the draft, and what seems to be a significant number of teams with the potential, and need, to make trades up or down. I’ve tried to mention trade possibilities where I think they might happen, but haven’t made any, because that way leads madness. Otherwise these are just guesses based on literally minutes of research from various team and media sites and trying to determine which make the most sense, and which are just wishful delusions.

All team needs and 2021 records from Matt Delima of SI.com, who certainly believes in listing every possible need for each team. Any errors are mine.

1. Jacksonville Jaguars

Record: 3-14
Top Needs: OT, LB, C, DT, S, CB

The pick: Let’s be clear that the most important thing the Jaguars did to improve was firing all-around horrible person Urban Meyer in the middle of last season. I’m not going to say much about Urban other than that he is a sack of shit who seems pretty much useless in any environment not involving young adults who don’t know any better. And that’s just in bars! hey-O!

As to the pick itself, if I were the Jaguars I’d be shopping this pick as hard as I could to any team that needed a DE and wanted to get ahead of the Lions, who are salivating over the prospect of taking the DE out of Michigan and actually generating some positive press for once. The Jags need too much to justify keeping this pick, as there doesn’t seem to be a consensus #1, franchise-changing pick out there this year, unlike last year when the Jags grabbed Trevor Lawrence and…well, shit. There goes that theory.

Anyhoo, I guess if they keep this pick they should probably bolster the O-line, which is given as their #1 need, and they did just invest their future in a shampoo model. If they don’t trade, the pick, (they should trade the pick), I like Alabama OT Evan Neal here. He protects last year’s franchise pick, they don’t have to worry, (as much), about Cam Robinson walking away next year, and frankly, to me anyway, a really good OT goes a loooooong, (Deanna Favre looks up hopefully), way towards solidifying a franchise’s future.

But really, the Jags should trade this pick.

2. Detroit Lions

Record: 3-13-1
Top Needs: DE, ILB, OLB, CB, QB, WR

The pick: There is speculation that the Jaguars could ignore need, both their own and those of that gorgeous head of hair they’ve got playing QB, and take this guy at #1, but if they don’t, and more importantly if they don’t trade the pick to someone who will, I think the Lions will fall all over themselves to draft Michigan DE Aidan Hutchinson. He fills their top need, he’s a beast, (I saw him play a few games this year and he’s just a monster), and he’s something of a hometown hero. Even the Lions couldn’t fuck this up.

So naturally either Jacksonville takes him or someone else trades up to get him. This actually does strike me as a situation where Detroit, unlike, say, Chicago, would be justified in giving up some future picks to move up one spot and grab a guy. Because unlike Trubisky, there’s at least a decent chance that Hutchinson won’t be there at #2, and also unlike Trubisky, Hutchinson actually seems like he’ll be a good player.

3. Houston Texans

Record: 4-13
Top Needs: QB, RB, WR, TE, OG, CB, S, DT, LT

The pick: This pick screams TRADE ME! almost as loudly as Baker Mayfield is probably yelling the same thing right now in Cleveland. Assuming Delima is right about the Texans needs, (although their primary need is primarily the same as Pinnochio, in that they just really want to be a real team some day), there is literally no one who addresses their top 4 needs that would justify a #3 pick.

Mel Kiper has a good point however, in that when you have this many needs, and picked up that many extra picks, you can afford to start building up by reaching for outstanding prospects for a less-than-immediate need. Assuming that Houston a) is real, and b) doesn’t move this pick for even more draft capital, I will agree with Mel and say that they take NC State OT Ikem Ekwonu here.

4. New York Jets

Record: 4-13
Top Needs: CB, EDGE, OT, LB, DT, DE

The Pick: The Jets are going to have excellent options to address their two biggest needs, (assuming they give Zach Wilson another year to prove how bad that pick was), at CB and Edge. Based in part on an assist from my favorite nerds, over at Walter Football, and also in part because of literally every other Jets mock draft that seemed based in reality, I like them to take Oregon Edge Kayvon Thibodeaux here.

5. New York Giants

Record: 4-13
Top Needs: LB, TE, EDGE, OG, C, OT, QB

The pick: Dave Gettleman “retired” and Joe Judge was shown the door, giving the Giants a pre-draft boost second only to the Jaguars firing Urban Meyer. This year perhaps the Giants will go against their past habits and not draft someone 6-10 picks ahead of where he should have gone.

Hilariously, however, (because it’s the Giants), there is literally no one here who suits their top 2 needs, so either they’re going to have to reach again, (there are a couple of QBs who are going to be drafted WAY sooner than they should be who are shooting up boards lately), and end the Danny Dimes fiasco, or they should try to trade down, because every pick the “experts” have them making is gone by now. I’m going to go with a guy who’s considered a bit of a reach at 7, (and this is 5), and take Georgia Edge Travon Walker here. He fits a need, (albeit 3 deep),the Giants were active in free agency in addressing their O-line, (although those aren’t exactly glowing reviews, are they?), and he allows the Giants to do what they love more than anything, reach at least a little bit for a prospect.

6. Carolina Panthers

Record: 5-12
Top Needs: QB, OT, OG, S, C, LB

The pick: Kenny Picket, QB, Pittsburgh. Is this a good pick? Oh lord no, not at #6. But the Panthers really need a QB, because Touch of Downs is not the answer to any question that isn’t “Hey, who ate all the paste?”, and because if the Panthers don’t take Pickett here the Falcons will take him at #8. Also drafting QBs way too high is, like The Masters, a tradition unlike any other. I actually don’t hate this pick, even though it almost certainly won’t help the Panthers this year. They can stash him behind Darnold for a year, hope he develops, and almost certainly get another low pick next year.

7. New York Giants (from Chicago Bears)

The pick: Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame (our Mother, pray for us!) (loses by 40 to random SEC team). I kept seeing Hamilton’s name come up and couldn’t figure out why, because the one thing the Giants didn’t seem to need was secondary help. But then I did a deep dive into the individual scouting reports and found that Hamilton is actually considered a pretty poor prospect for safety, (he doesn’t cover very well and isn’t fast, and other than that Mrs. Lincoln, what did you think of the play?), but does have skills well-suited to LB, in that he is very good at hitting people, (although he also is said to miss too many tackles which, huh?), and has good potential to add size. Funny how the NFL is good at that. Anyway, good potential at LB, LB is the Giants top need, and Hamilton seems as likely to be hilariously bad at it as he is to be good at it, which makes him irresistible to the Giants.

8. Atlanta Falcons

Record: 7-10
Top Needs: QB, WR, S, LB, RB, EDGE

The pick: I absolutely hate this pick, but I think that the consensus is correct and that the Falcons will take Liberty QB Malik Willis. This is a perfect example of the NFL’s QB fetish, drafting a QB who had a good year against subpar competition and hoping that somehow translates to success against elite talent in the NFL. Maybe Willis can make that transition, but history says he won’t. The Falcons, however, are in complete teardown mode, so it probably doesn’t matter. They’ll have plenty of high picks to either replace Willis or get him some help when it’s time for him to replace Marcus Mariota. Who was also drafted very high after success against less-than-stellar competition, (the PAC-Whatever sucks, deal with it), and look how well that worked out.

9. Seattle Seahawks (from Denver Broncos

Record: 7-10
Top Needs: QB, OT, CB, OG, EDGE, ILB, LB

The pick: Mississippi State OT Charles Cross. I don’t know anything about Cross, (or really any of these guys. I’m absolutely winging this), but he fills a need and is one of the few guys that pretty much everyone agrees is going to one place, and that one place is Seattle. Who am I to disagree? Hope you like rain and conspiracy theories, Charles.

10. New York Jets (from Seattle Seahawks

The pick: The Jets could actually be in position to have a first round that their fans will not boo off the stage, which happens with the same frequency that Halley’s Comet pops by to say hello. Oh, Kyle Brady, what a horrendous pick you were. Here, however, the Jets have, (theoretically anyway), addressed their needs at Edge with a guy everyone seems to think can’t miss, and now here they are looking at the top CB prospect to fill their top need. Cincinnati CB Ahmad Gardner is the pick here.

11. Washington Football Team (I’m not calling them The Commanders, and you can’t make me)

Record: 7-10
Top Needs: A new name, OG, LB, S, OT, CB, WR

The pick: Well, Washington solved all of its problems by trading for Carson Wentz, a/k/a Glass Joe, who is absolutely thrilled to be there. I can’t find it now, but he posted something that boiled down to “God must have his reasons, and I am but a humble servant”, which doesn’t exactly say, “Man, am I looking forward to this!” This isn’t exactly a need, but it does have the sexy appeal of giving Wentz someone to badly underthrow, so the pick here is Ohio State WR Garrett Wilson.

12. Minnesota Vikings

Record: 8-9
Top Needs: EDGE, OG, CB, LB, TE, WR

The pick: This isn’t listed as a position of need, but in poking around and doing my due diligence for this little opus, I stumbled on an interesting little fact: the Vikings are the proud owner of the worst center in the NFL, Garrett Bradbury. That isn’t a good thing. The top 3 Edge guys are gone by this point, (there’s a DT out of Georgia a lot of people like here, but there’s a big difference between a tackle and an Edge, so I don’t see it), so it makes some sense for the Vikings to make a bit of a reach and take Iowa C Tyler Linderbaum, the highest rank prospect at center, and grease the skids for Bradbury’s eventual exit.

13. Houston Texans (from Cleveland Browns

The pick: They still don’t have any one fitting the top 3 needs that would justify a pick here, but they do have LSU CB Derek Stingley here to address their 5th need. And as noted earlier, the Texans are a) in such bad shape that they really can take “best available”, stack them up, tank for another year and do it all again next year and b) are imaginary, so none of this really matters anyway.

14. Baltimore Ravens

Record: 8-9
Top needs: OT, OG, S, EDGE, DT

The pick: There’s a difference between having Lamar Jackson run because doing so greatly enhances his potential as an offensive weapon, and having Lamar Jackson run for his life because his offensive line is as porous as…something very porous, I guess. Look, you want science get Doc Zymm to do these. My scientific ignorance (gravity is just a theory!) aside, the Ravens very much need to do something about that line, and their top need here intersects very nicely with Northern Iowa OT Trevor Penning.

15. Philadelphia Eagles (from Miami Dolphins)

Record: 9-8
Top needs: LB, S, CB, DT, DE, WR

The pick: With the next two picks it’s possible that the Eagles could try to package them and move up to get one of the top 2 CBs, or the S/LB prospect out of Notre Dame. But I don’t think they need to do that, when they can keep these two picks and address two other needs, the D-line and the pressing need to replace the failure that is Jalen Reagor. Keep in mind that we’ll be back in Philly for the 19th pick, so the Eagles can probably reach a little here and still get a LB or CB there. I’ll say they do, taking Ohio State WR Chris Olave here

16. Philadelphia Eagles (from Indianapolis Colts)

The pick: and drafting top-rated, (by Walter Football) Georgia DT Jordan Davis, here. Or they could flip them. Either way I would take credit.

17. San Diego Chargers

Record: 9-8
Top needs: OG, C, TE, RB, DT

I hate to do this here, because I was hoping this guy would fall to the Cowboys, but he’s the top need for the Chargers and he’s right there and I’d be (more than usual) delusional if I thought that was going to happen. Anyway Texas A&M OL Kenyon Green goes to San Diego, and I hope he gets a bad fish taco.

18. New Orleans Saints

Record: 9-8
Top needs: QB, DT, LB, WR, CB, S, TE

The pick: I’m literally making this pick because I saw him on the TV and thought “Oh yeah. Someone who needs a QB will reach for him.” The Saints were the next team to need a QB, so Ole Miss QB Matt Corral goes to New Orleans, which I believe has a history with Ole Miss QBs, so this might actually work out for me. Oh, TV, when have you ever let me down?
/Watches ‘Cop Rock’
Oh. Oh, right.

19. Philadelphia Eagles

Ugh. These pricks again. With their first two picks, if they were listening to me, the Eagles got a DT and a WR. They could still use more defensive help so hear me out, cuz we’re about to get weird. Michigan DE David Ojabo. Yes, he tore his Achilles tendon at his pro day, so he’s not going to be ready for competition on opening day. Or even for hopscotch, probably. But he will be ready eventually, and if you’re the Eagles, and you’ve already bolstered your defense, why not take a chance on a Top 5 guy here at 19. Why, it just makes too much sense! Which means it’ll never happen, but for now I’m going with it.

20. Pittsburgh Steelers

Record: 9-7-1
Top needs: OT, OG, CB, DT, WR, S

The pick: The Steelers would love to move up and grab one of the top 3 QB prospects, but they probably don’t have the draft capital to do it, (I’m making that up; I have no idea), and I just gave away Corral to the Saints. Trubisky it is, barring the Steelers moving this pick for Baker Mayfield in a recreation of that stupid Kevin Costner movie that had the Browns doing something smart on draft day. File that one under ‘fantasy’. A lot of people have the Steelers taking a QB here no matter what, although I doubt anyone other than Corral has a chance of falling this far. The only one left is Desmond Ridder from Cincinnati, and this seems way too high for him to be drafted. Look for the Steelers to move this pick if they haven’t already given it away for Mayfield.

Since I’m completely stuck, and since I’m not doing trades, (the Steelers will trade this pick, either for Mayfield or to move up), I’ll say they take the combination of the highest ranked player who addresses their highest area of need and take Washington CB Trent McDuffie, but I have no faith in this pick.

/is the only pick I get right

21. New England Patriots

Record: 10-7
Top needs: CB, WR, LB, S, OG, DT, DE

The pick: Alabama WR Jameson Williams. He fits a need, he’s played with White Mac, Darth Hoodie loves Satan, uh, Saban players, and, (perhaps most importantly), you know Green Bay has started to salivate at the prospect of Williams falling to them, and Bill loves nothing more than destroying the hopes and dreams of other franchises.

22. Green Bay Packers (from Las Vegas Raiders)

Record: 13-4
Top needs: WR, OT, DE, EDGE, TE, S, CB

The Pick: The Packers have two first-round picks this year and one first-rate pima Dona QB that they have to keep happy with both of them unless they want to spend the next few weeks getting ass-blasted on Pat McAfee’s show. I’m thinking they go WR here, the best of the remaining being Arkansas WR Treylon Burks, then look to bolster the line with the second pick. No need to boost Rodgers’s ego though, it’s doing just fine.

23. Arizona Cardinals

Record: 11-6
Top needs: CB, OG, OT, EDGE, C, DT, WR

The pick: Arizona would love to get McDuffie here, and they probably can, because let’s face it, I’m just making more stuff up than usual on the Pittsburgh section. That #content doesn’t mine itself, people. That said, if McDuffie isn’t available they could decide to address the fact that Chandler Jones is about to hit free agency, and that JJ Watt is a walking, talking M*A*S*H unit, (and about 93 in NFL-player years), and take Purdue Edge George Karlaftis here. They’d probably be better served getting O-line help for Murray, but since he decided to be a snotty little prick in the off-season, “screw him, let him get his own offensive line” is a thing that Mike Bidwell is probably thinking.

24. Dallas Cowboys

Record: 12-5
Top needs: DT, S, EDGE, LB, TE, OT

The pick: The other reason for the Cardinals to take Karlaftis is that it’ll screw the Cowboys, who just got their bluff called by Randy Gregory, who took his talents, (and stash), to the Mile Hiiiiiiiiiigh when Dallas tried to get cute with the contract. Dallas also has to do something about their offensive line, with Collins and Williams lost to free agency and Tyron Smith slowly crumbling to dust, and need cheap help at WR with Amari Cooper gone. Other than that, however, everything’s comin’ up Ol’ Double J!!

I think Dallas flips this pick with Arizona, in that Arizona will take one of these guys, and Dallas the other. Zion Johnson, OL, Boston College. Johnson allows the Cowboys to start rebuilding their line. He’d do the same for Arizona,in which case Dallas could take Karlaftis, and start rebuilding their pass rush.

25. Buffalo Bills

Record: 11-6
Top needs: CB, OG, LB, DT, WR, RB

The pick: Walter Football has this guy ranked as the 8th CB prospect, so this could be wrong, (c’mon, all these picks are wrong), but there’s a lot of noise among the draft cognoscenti that he’s been moving up boards faster than Britt Reid trying to get home from a bender, and he does meet the Bills most pressing need, (an argument can be made that they may need offensive line help more, if they lose a couple of free agents), so I’m going to go along with the mob and make a bit of a reach for Clemson CB Andrew Booth here.

26. Don T’s Tits

Record: 12-5
Top needs: LB, OT, TE, WR, CB, DT

The pick: Things rarely work out this well this late in the draft, but if things have followed along with this mock draft then a) the 7th Seal is about the break and Death will announce this pick while astride a white horse, and the Titans will be able to address their primary need with the top-ranked prospect for the position, Georgia LB Nakobe Dean. Don T is a scholar and a gentleman so let’s hope this works out. I, however, am a moron who does very little research, so it probably won’t.

27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Record: 13-4
Top needs: RB, DT, EDGE, WR, OG, TE

The pick: Well, apparently not a QB anymore. Unless you’re living under a rock you’re aware the Tom Brady spent 40 days with his family and it went so great that they all agreed he should go play football for at least another year. If Brady’s your QB I don’t really think you need to be taking an RB in the first round, even is the ESPN crawl informs me that Ronald Davis took off in free agency. That leaves us with defense as the top priority, but someone named Ali Marpet just retired from the O-line, and since your “what’s old is new again” QB is 44, I’d say replacing that guy becomes the priority. A lot of Bucs writers/fans are saying Zion Johnson will go here, but even if he doesn’t go where I assigned him, (Dallas), Johnson is going to be long gone at 27. If the Bucs don’t move up they have no chance at him. if they don’t get Johnson, the next ranked guard is LSU G Ed Ingram, and I’ll give him to the Bucs, although I think they’d move this pick and move down, as Ingram is considered a Day 2 prospect, albeit a good one.

28. Green Bay Packers

The pick: Stop trying to make Zion Johnson happen in the late 20’s people! It’s not going to happen. That said, we got Qaron his WR with the first first-round pick so now it’s time to get him some protection. We know how he feels about vaccines, so that’s out. Turning to the offensive line we do not find Zion Johnson here…I SAID WE DO NOT FIND ZION JOHNSON HERE!!!!…but we do find Tulsa OT Tyler Smith, who apparently is another one moving up boards and would be considered steal at this position.

29. Kansas City Chiefs (from Miami, from San Francisco 49ers)

Record: 12-5
Top needs: CB, DE, DT, WR, Designated Driver, EDGE, LB, S

The pick: Will Tyreek Hill taking his…”talents” to South Beach, I would say that the Chiefs now need to address WR as a priority. They have back-to-back picks to do so. That said I think we’re 3-4 CBs down, @5 WRs down, and all the top DEs are gone. These two picks seem like great candidates to be moved, allowing the Chiefs to move up and take a top prospect at any of those three positions. For the sake of filling space, and preserving what little I have left of my sanity, we’ll skip trades and give them a WR here. Uh, sure, Penn State WR Jahan Dotson. Why not? A Penn State player should be comfortable in an Andy Reid management system.

30. Kansas City Chiefs

The pick:. If anyone would be, oh let’s say “bold” to be nice, enough to go Penn State back-to-back it’s be Andy Reid. Penn State DL Arnold Ebketie. Fills a need and has been starting to move into he first round hype.

31. Cincinnati Bengals

Record: 10-7
Top needs: CB, C, DT, OG, LB

The pick: Mel Kiper has the Bengals taking Fightin’ Horatios DT Travis Jones going to the Bengals here. Jones apparently did well in the Senior Bowl, and in the few moments I could bear to watch UConn “play” “football” last season it was hard not to notice that Jones actually seemed to know what he was doing. Also I have never had the opportunity to put a UConn player in the first-round, and goddammit I am going to run with it. Sorry, Redshirt. If it makes you feel better I’m almost certainly wrong.

32. Detroit Lions (from YOUR SUPER BOWL CHAMPION LOS ANGELES RAMS!!!)

The pick: Folks, it’s happening. We’re starting to see the Lions picking Malik Williams at #2. And there’s a lot of it. Williams may very well be a decent QB prospect, but he played his college ball at Falwell U, and that’s simply not what you spend your #2 pick on. That would be like drafting a WR with a top 10 pick for several years ru…Oh. Oh dear. For the moment, however, let’s stifle our giggling and give the Lions more credit than they deserve and say that they manage not to do that. They’ll still need a QB, and it looks like the top remaining prospect is North Carolina QB Sam Howell. He’s been described as “a poor man’s Baker Mayfield”, which is perfect, because Detroit is a poor man’s Cleveland.

And with that we conclude V1.0 of the DFO Mock Draft, brought to you by Horatio, with assists from various media, all of whom I’ve tried to link to as needed. If you’re truly interested in a deep dive, follow the links. I promise you they know more than I do.