CFL Beat: Week 17

It’s fall, the leaves are turning, and the 2022 CFL playoff picture is finally coming together. The West Division will have Winnipeg, BC and Calgary locking up the top three slots – but the exact order remains to be finalized just yet. In the East, Toronto has similarly clinched, leaving just two slots left for the taking. With Hamilton and Ottawa floundering this year, the possibility of a crossover berth – likely Saskatchewan – remains on the table, but a lot of things will need to go right for them, as well as a lot of similar poor outcomes for the third-place Tiger-Cats and fourth-place REDBLACKS. At any rate, intrigue abounds – especially with so many East divisional games left on the schedule over these final few weeks!

In league news this week:

• The Calgary Stampeders signed new #1 QB Jake Maier to a two-year contract extension this week, running through the end of the 2024 season. In a historic move, both Maier and Edmonton Elks QB Taylor Cornelius, who signed an extension earlier this month, will both see 50% of their base salary guaranteed for the final year of their respective deals; this is quite a change for CFL players, who now have a significant card to play in future negotiations thanks to their new CBA signed this spring. In years past, teams could cut veteran players after a year of their deals without any salary cap hits for the upcoming season; this change in contract structuring will not only provide a little more roster continuity in seasons to come, but also allow players to develop more of a long-term future in the CFL – which I hope will allow local markets to develop better relationships with individual players as well to market the game more effectively.
• Alouettes star RB William Stanback, who shattered his ankle in their season opener against Calgary back in June, returned to practice this week – albeit in a limited role. While it’s thrilling to see him almost completely healthy and back on the field, he won’t dress this week against the Edmonton Elks – a return next week against Ottawa is probably a safer bet. Getting the 2021 rushing yards leader back ahead of a post-season drive would be a huge boost for Montreal heading into the final few weeks of the season.
• Roughriders third-string quarterback Jake Dolegala was suspended for a game by the team after his arrest Monday for a DUI charge in Regina early that morning. It’s of course foolish and unacceptable for anyone, let alone a professional athlete, but could also be, if one really strained to make the argument, symbolic of the overall lack of discipline that this current Saskatchewan coaching staff and management has provided for their roster. I don’t expect him to see the field again this year – he’s been a healthy scratch for twelve of the team’s fourteen games this year, buried deep on the QB depth chart.

Onto the games!

WEEK 16 RECAPS

Hamilton 16 vs. Montreal 23: Dane Evans didn’t turn over the ball – a positive for Hamilton – but the Tiger-Cats had some real problems sustaining drives and finding the end zone – reverting to what we’ve primarily seen of them over this season. Full credit to the defence, who did well to keep them in it all game long – the Als’ didn’t score their winning touchdown until just over two minutes remained in the fourth quarter. Rookie RB Wes Hills had Hamilton’s only TD of the game; Montreal didn’t fare much better on the offensive front, but QB Trevor Harris was efficient enough to go 26-35 for 244 yards and two TD strikes, both of which were snagged by Montreal’s top receiver, Eugene Lewis.

PICK: Montreal

RESULT: Montreal

Toronto 45 vs. Ottawa 15: I’ve seen enough. It’s time to fire Paul LaPolice as REDBLACKS head coach. When you can’t motivate your players to come out and fight in a do-or-die game like this one – not to mention the career .300 win percentage as a head coach – it’s time to move on. The Argos’ D recorded five interceptions on the night, two of which were pick-sixes, while the offense scored four of their own – three passing scores from McLeod Bethel-Thompson, and a rushing major from backup Chad “Mr. Irrelevant 2017” Kelly. Truly an atrocious night all around for Ottawa – and for the third straight year, I can’t believe I’m saying that it’s time to blow up the team and start fresh. I don’t even care that a new GM’s in place for this latest failure of a campaign. Fire everyone from the CEO of Ottawa Sports and Entertainment Group all the way down to the concession workers.

PICK: Toronto

RESULT: Toronto

Calgary 25 vs. BC 11: Despite missing star LB Cameron Judge after throwing punches in last week’s tilt, the Stamps’ D came to play in this week’s rematch against BC. New Lions’ starter Vernon Adams, Jr. was limited to just 151 passing yards and got sacked five times on the night. Calgary also got their ground game involved, with Ka’Deem Carey and Peyton Logan each scoring a rushing TD. In finding revenge against their divisional rivals, the Stampeders also punched their ticket for the 2022 CFL playoffs, one week after BC celebrated the same feat. With the playoff picture settled in the West, the only hope for either Saskatchewan or Edmonton to see postseason action would be in the form of a crossover berth ahead of the third-place East team. It’s possible – but still not probable, at least not with a little bit of luck.

PICK: BC

RESULT: Calgary

BYE: Edmonton (4-10), Saskatchewan (6-8), Winnipeg (12-2)

WEEK 17 PREVIEWS

Saskatchewan (6-8) vs. Winnipeg (12-2), Friday, September 30th, 7:00 PM EDT (TSN, ESPN): What a reversal of fortunes for Saskatchewan since they almost defeated the Blue Bombers in last year’s West Final. With Calgary, BC, and their prairie rivals all in the playoffs now, the Riders are going to need a lot to go right if they hope to see postseason action in the East Division as a crossover team. With Winnipeg having won both previous matches against Saskatchewan this season, not to mention having beaten them in every contest last year, they very, very much want to keep their win streak against their archenemies going for as long as possible. Winning this game involves two important components – making better pocket protection for Cody Fajardo, and also ensuring that players are more disciplined than they’ve ever been. Both of these are systemic problems that I don’t see getting resolved any time soon.

PICK: Winnipeg

Ottawa (3-10) vs. BC (9-4), Friday, September 30th, 10:30 PM EDT (TSN, ESPN): If Ottawa wants to win this game, which as of right now remains a long shot, they should at least be thankful for the fact that they’re on the road here. Winning at home has proven to be essentially impossible this last while – so maybe heading to the Pacific Ocean could be a cure for at least some of their ailments. The Lions are lucky to have clinched a playoff spot – they’ve certainly been an up-and-down team since losing Nathan Rourke midseason – but they need this win in order to keep ahead of Calgary and stay in control of hosting a home playoff game. Vernon Adams, Jr. was bound to have some growing pains in a new offensive system as a QB dealt mid-season, but perhaps a beatdown on lowly Ottawa might make him feel a little more comfortable with the Lions’ playbook heading into the final weeks of the season.

PICK: BC

Montreal (6-7) vs. Edmonton (4-10), Saturday, October 1st, 4:00 PM EDT (TSN, ESPN): A win over the Elks would give the Alouettes a three-game lead over Hamilton for second place in the East with just four games left to play – this would be a big step in securing a home playoff game this year. Edmonton is definitely a better team than what we saw in the tumultuous start to 2022, but they are still unlikely to win at home, let alone make the playoffs. With the QB problem seemingly solved with the Taylor Cornelius extension a couple weeks ago, I expect Chris Jones to turn his focus towards fixing the defense, which has given up a league-worst 467 points through 14 games this year. I think the majority of the issues are personnel-based, rather than systemic ones, but it’s never too early to start auditioning for a job on next year’s squad for a lot of these defensive players in green & gold.

PICK: Montreal

Toronto (8-5) vs. Calgary (9-5), Saturday, October 5th, 7:00 PM EDT (TSN, ESPN): The Stampeders have the league’s best offense at this point in the season, having passed the Lions and Bombers recently. That switch to Jake Maier as starting QB continues to look better and better for them. When these two teams last faced off in Week 11, Maier sparked a second-half rally that pushed the Stamps to a hard-fought road win in T.O.; since that game, he’s been listed as QB1 and hasn’t looked back once. Despite that close loss several weeks ago, the Argos have followed up with four consecutive wins – all against weaker Eastern rivals in Hamilton and Ottawa – but they remain the East’s clear-cut best team, and McBeth, despite appearing so often like a relic from early-80s football due to his lack of mobility in the pocket, continues to get better and better for Toronto. He now sits as the league’s passing yards leader and third overall in pass TDs, with 19 in all. Hard to believe that Toronto found one of the league’s top pivots on the scrap heap. I hope this game is surprisingly fun in the same manner that both of these teams are each week.

PICK: Calgary

BYE: Hamilton (4-10)

STANDINGS AND STATS

East Division Standings

West Division Standings

x- clinched playoff spot
y- clinched division title
e- eliminated from playoff contention

Passing Yards 

1. Bethel-Thompson, TOR – 3672
2. Collaros, WPG – 3578
3. Rourke, BC – 3281

Passing TDs

1. Collaros, WPG – 28
2. Rourke, BC – 25
3. Bethel-Thompson, TOR – 19

Rushing Yards

1. Carey, CGY – 857
2. Oliveira, WPG – 757
3. Butler, BC – 638

Receiving Yards

1. Acklin, OTT – 1081
2. Rhymes, BC – 1062
3. Lewis, MTL – 1006

Sacks

1. Mauldin, OTT – 12
2. Lemon, CGY – 11
3. Robertson, SSK – 9

Interceptions

1. Peters, TOR – 6
2. Kelly, HAM – 5
3. Peters, BC – 4

Field Goals

1. Paredes, CGY – 43
2. Lauther, SSK – 36
3. Bede, TOR – 34

PICK POOL

We have a little bit of a re-shuffling at the top, thanks to the total points scored in the last game of the week tiebreaker feature of the pool! I sincerely hope we continue to see a tight race over the final few weeks of the year.

Remember to submit your picks here! https://www.pooltracker.com/join.asp?poolid=205786

Enjoy the games, everyone.