Hey all and welcome to the Week 10 GPP Breakdown!

Discord…you need it. The below ownership will change, potentially significantly, before kickoff on Sunday.

Let’s fucking go!

Week 10 GPP Ownership Report

1. Saquon Barkley – 25.7
2. Travis Etienne – 24.5
3. Tyreek Hill – 21.8
4. Dameon Pierce – 20.2
5. Derrick Henry – 20.1
6. Patrick Mahomes – 20.1
7. Alvin Kamara – 18.5
8. Stefon Diggs – 16.2
9. Josh Jacobs – 15.6
10. Cooper Kupp – 15.3
11. Greg Dulcich – 15.1
12. Christian Kirk – 15.1
13. Tony Pollard – 14.9
14. Travis Kelce – 14.3
15. Cedee Lamb – 12.3

Quick Takes

• I think Saquon will be more highly owned than 24.4% in week 10 GPPs. I’d guess over 30 at minimum. I’m considering him in over 50% of my lineups so that I am over the field.
• I’m considering a full fade on Etienne. Read below for why.
• I feel very confident about Henry’s ownership number.
• TJ Watt might return for the Steelers, that’s an overall hit to the Saints offense.
• The Cowboys backfield is up in the air at the moment. If Zeke sits, then that likely changes the above numbers.

Week 10 GPP Chalk Stack

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Kansas City Chiefs

With this game garnering a 50.5 total, a good amount of Week 10 GPP lineups are going to begin with Partick Mahomes paired with Travis Kelce and then a run back with Travis Etienne and/or Christian Kirk.

That sucks. I want to do that too!

If going this route, then stacking Mahomes with someone other than or in addition to Kelce is how I would do it. With Hardman OUT, it’s JuJu and MVS for me, though both look to have some ownership. I’d then run it back with anyone other that Etienne. In fact, I’m likely fading Etienne because it’s quite probable that the Chiefs jump out to a lead, and the Jags will have to throw to keep up. Yes, Etienne can catch passes too, I just have to find a different way to stack this situation or avoid it entirely. Zay Jones is collecting some ownership as well FYI.

The Other Week 10 GPP Stack

Cleveland Browns @ Miami Dolphins

What will be highly owned in Week 10 GPPs is Tyreek Hill. People will also pair him with Tua. It makes sense, this combination has been the winning combo in 2 weeks so far in 2022.

What intrigues me though are these:

• Jaylen Waddle is coming in around 10% or lower. Good leverage in his price range and off of Tyreek in week 10 GPPs.
• Nick Chubb is coming in around 7%. The Dolphins are middle of the road vs RBs, but running the ball is what Cleveland wants to do, If the Browns keep this close or get out to a lead, it’s Chubb time.
• However, the Dolphins are the worst team vs QBs. Jacoby Brissett is coming in at 4.1% ownership. Now, I’m not saying he’s a world beater, or that he is likely to be in the optimal lineup. Buuuutttt…the Dolphins are the worst vs QBs, and if the Browns get behind, then airing it out to Amari Cooper and company is on the table. Also, Brissett is about to lose his starting job, a good performance here should easily incentivize him. Njoku is not going to play by the way.
• The Browns themselves are not great vs RBs, 4th worst in fact. Jeff Wilson was highly involved last week. He’s coming in at 5.5% ownership, Raheem Mostert is at 5.2%.

My Week 10 GPP Conundrum

Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams

I hate both of these teams. For those who have been following my work, I’m sure you understand why. For those who have not, just know that one HC is a liar, and the other is awful. Also know that one of these QBs attempts to rely solely on talent to win at the NFL level while the other is ultimately not good, but has certainly paid his dues but has now been abandoned by his GM. However, check out these injuries:

Arizona

• Kyler Murray has been limited at practice with a hamstring injury but should play.
• LT DJ Humphries has a back issue and didn’t practice until Friday.
• LG Max Garcia has a should injury and won’t play
• C Rodney Hudson has a knee problem and is OUT.
• RG Cody Ford has an illness and didn’t practice until Friday.
• RT Kelvin Beachum is both sick and dealing with a knee injury but has been limited in practice.

How are they going to block anyone??? But it doesn’t stop there…

• S Budda Baker has an ankle injury but got in a limited Friday practice.
• CB Byron Murphy has a back issue and isn’t practicing.

Los Angeles

• Matthew Stafford has a concussion and has yet to be cleared to play. Since you asked, his backup is something named John Wolford. (Yes, I know Wolford has started an NFL game before.)
• C Brian Allen is dealing with a knee injury but has practiced in a limited fashion.
• RG Alaric Jackson has a knee issue and hasn’t been practicing.
• DE Greg Gaines is likely to miss with an elbow injury.

My point in bringing all this up is that things could get weird in this game. I’m not interested in stacking this matchup, but someone should eat.

1. Cooper Kupp looks to be the highest owned player in this tilt, and it makes sense as he should continue to be the focal point of the offense regardless of starting QB.
2. The Rams defense looks to be about 10% owned. This is appropriate considering the offensive line situation with Arizona.
3. The Cardinals defense is 5.4% owned and potentially facing a backup QB with a subpar offensive line.
4. Friends don’t let friends play Rams RBs.

Other Week 10 GPP Plays

• There’s a lot of speculation around Josh Allen’s availability for week 10 GPPs. For me, this is simple. If he plays, I am stacking him with one or two of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis (5% projected ownership). If Allen doesn’t play, I’m playing Devin Singletary (7.8% projected ownership). Allen got in a limited practice on Friday, which is a good sign that he plays.
• The Packers have 3 offensive linemen with issues. They have issues in their WR room. Their QB stinks and has a thumb issue on his passing hand. The Cowboys defense, which is dynamic, looks to have single digit ownership this week.
• Two of the Steelers CBs are likely to miss on Sunday. Chris Olave looks to be around 10% owned, but again, TJ Watt could return.
• Kenny Pickett has like three people left to throw to and the Saints will be missing CB Lattimore and S Maye:
  • DJ is 11% owned.
  • Pickens is 6%, and as such is my favorite.
  • The Moose is 6.8%.
  • If you feel like including Najee, he is 7.7%.
• Devante Adams, Mack Hollins, and Foster Moreau are like the only ones around to catch passes for Vegas. I suppose Keelan Cole could make me eat these words, but I don’t chase 2020s.
• Josh Jacobs’ prospects also got better with LB Shaquille Leonard declared OUT.
• Justin Jefferson is my favorite high priced WR this week…because, you guessed it, he looks like the lowest owned.
• Dal Cook continues to carry less ownership than he should. I wouldn’t play both him and the aforementioned receiver in the same lineup though.
• If I am brand new coach who has never, and I mean ever, been a football coach at a high level, and I was thrusted into the Colt HC role, then I would just hike the ball and turn around to hand it to Jonathan Taylor. At 10.6% ownership though, I like this play less than I would if Taylor were single-digit ownership. He is still coming off an injury…
• In case I’m wrong about the above statement, the Raiders are 2nd worst vs QBs. What no one is expecting is HC Saturday having Ehlinger (sub 3% ownership in Week 10 GPPs, 15% two weeks ago) come out and slinging it to one of the best WRs in the league. So we’re clear I mean Pittman (5.5% owned). Also….it’s not out of the realm of possibilities that Matt Ryan replaces Ehlinger mid game on Sunday.
• The Boys backfield needs to be monitored. Tony Pollard’s ownership will balloon if Zeke sits again. Zeke will likely be under a snap count anyway.
• Adam Thielen will be about 5.5% owned. When he has a 2 TD day, he’ll win someone $1 million.
• Yes, the Lions defense stinks. You can play Justin Fields again. I’ll be fairly surprised if he is the optimal QB in back to back weeks, but the Lions defense did not suddenly figure it out. In the Packers, the Lions D were facing a depleted offensive line with an injured WR core and a declining QB. This week they face an ascending QB, offensive line, and receiving core.
• On the other side, the Lions rushing attack looks to be in good shape again as Bears DE Al-Quadin Muhammad is doubtful with a knee injury. I’m just not sure how many snaps Swift will get.
• Steelers D is sneaky in Week 10 GPP contests. I’m not on it if Watt doesn’t play though.

Bonus DFO Only Content

Here is the link to my article on GIH. Not much is different this week other than the featured image and my updated ownership projections. I have no intent of helping to make Saquon more highly owned.

• I might play 100% Saquon.
• Cooper Kupp is likely to put up over 20 DK points regardless of who is QBing that team.
• I like the Steelers to outright win this week.
• The Steelers will be my highest owned defense. TJ Watt is back baby!!

• Yes, it’s a revenge game for Stefon Diggs, but it’s also a potential revenge game for Casey Keenum…

Again, join the free Discord! Updates will be posted there on Sunday morning!