Hey all and welcome to my Week 13 GPP Breakdown! Bye weeks are almost over and we have 12 games to choose from. Additionally, there are several players who get to play their former teams, so the revenge game narrative is in play for several players.

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Let’s go into it!

Week 13 GPP Ownership Report

1. Austin Ekeler – 22.4%
2. Josh Jacobs – 20.7%
3. Pittsburgh Steelers – 19.8%
4. Amon-Ra St. Brown – 16%
5. Joe Burrow – 15.5%
6. Travis Kelce – 14.9%
7. Christian McCaffrey – 14.5%
8. Dalvin Cook – 13.9%
9. Kenneth Walker – 13.9%
10. Nick Chubb – 13.6%
11. Davante Adams – 13.5%
12. Patrick Mahomes – 12.6%
13. Harrison Bryant – 12.5%
14. Los Angeles Rams – 12.3%
15. Tee Higgins – 12.2%

Quick Ownership Takes

I’m a little skeptical of some of these Week 13 GPP numbers.

• • I don’t think CMC will be that highly owned.
  • I think Jacobs comes in higher than 20.8%.
  • I don’t think Cook will be that highly owned.
  • Tee Higgins’ ownership should fluctuate depending on Ja’Marr Chase’s status. Chase practiced in full on Friday, so I expect this to change.
  • Not sure Bryant will come in at that number, that’s the algorithm adjusting for the David Njoku news.
  • The Rams at 12.3% against Seattle? With Aaron Donald OUT? That smells fishy.
  • The Steelers ownership makes sense, but pay attention to whether or not TJ Watt plays; he was limited in Friday’s practice.

Week 13 GPP Chalk Stack

The Kansas City Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals

With the highest total on the weekend, Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes will likely be the highest owned QBs in Week 13 GPPs.  Most folks will stack Mahomes with Kelce and stack Burrow with one or two of Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase. At the moment I have Chase at 7.4% ownership, but I imagine that will increase if he is cleared to play. Higgins and Chase will see CBs Trent McDuffie, Joshua Williams, and Jaylen Watson. This trio has given up the 3rd most fantasy points to WRs over the last 8 weeks.

A way to get different from the field with this one is a full on game stack. It’s expensive, but playing 5 to 7 players in this matchup is not something many will do as the likelihood of that being successful is low. However, should fireworks happen and this ends up being a 35 – 33 final, you will likely need players from this game to take down a Week 13 GPP. The other option is to fade this game entirely, which may be unwise.

Other Week 13 GPP Stacks

Tennessee Titans @ Philadelphia Eagles

Revenge game narrative for A.J. Brown here. Tennessee is the 2nd worst team vs WRs and 6th worst vs QBs. They are actually decent against the run, but CBs Kristian Fulton and Roger McCreary are allowing high reception numbers and high yards per reception numbers as well. I’m skeptical of AJ Brown’s sub 10% ownership projection for Week 13 GPPs, but if he does indeed come in under that, then, well, let’s just that me being excited will be an understatement.

The Eagles are top 10 worst against RBs, so the possibility of Henry going over 100 yards again is in play. I like this game to go over the 44.5 total and will be stacking Hurts with Brown and running it back with Henry in Week 13 GPP contests.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Las Vegas Raiders

There is only one way I want to stack this one and that is Justin Herbert with one or two of his pass catchers. The Raiders are horrible against every position, but they are 2nd worst vs QBs. With Keenan Allen back, Herbert looked like his old self. I got him at 7.3% ownership, which I actually think might be a bit higher considering the game total here.

Since returning, Keenan Allen has 15 targets and is averaging 14.2 fantasy points. Small sample size for sure, but we need to only go back to last season to understand how much Herbert prefers throwing to Allen. Allen will be going up against CB Tyler Hall often in this matchup. Hall is a backup, whose numbers are not great. He’s highly inexperienced and Allen is both experienced and awesome. Additionally, Mike Williams remains out, so Palmer comes into play too.

Of course you can play Jacobs as the Chargers are 4th worst vs RBs, but he will be highly owned and the likelihood of another 51 point performance is not high. However, Jacobs might not need to score that in order to be in the optimal lineup. Heck, half of that could do the trick. Davante Adams will be lower owned, but the Chargers are top 10 in the league vs WRs. Adams did have 10 grabs for 141 yards and a TD back in week one against these Chargers.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Detroit Lions

The Lions are the worst team vs QBs. The Jaguars are 8th worst. The Lions are 4th worst vs WRs. The Jaguars are 9th. The Lions are 4th worst vs TEs. The Jaguars? They’re 11th. We could have a shootout on our hands here. I just wish Lawrence and the Jags hadn’t performed so well against the Ravens last week, as we will likely have some inflated ownership on our hands in Week 13 GPPs.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, who continues to have a huge target share, will go up against CB Rayshawn Jenkins frequently on Sunday. Jenkins is allowing a 76% catch rate. Amon-Ra will have ownership, but it’s warranted. In his last 3 games St. Brown is averaging 8.5 catches and 105 yards per game. I have Jared Goff at 9.2% ownership, which seems high. Also, considering the role the Lions rushing attack has, Goff’s ceiling may be limited. DJ Chark may be incentivized to gain some vengence against his former team as well.

On the other side the Jaguars WRs get the luxury of facing the Lions CBs. In particular, Will Harris has allowed an 81.4% catch rate. He’ll spend most of his days trying to contain an 11.4% owned Christian Kirk. I have Trevor Lawrence around 8.1% ownership (which I think will be higher) and Zay Jones at 6.2%. Since the Lions are also horrible against TEs, Evan Engram is in play at 7.6% ownership, but he runs the risk of giving you a zero at the TE spot. Also, Marvin Jones is going up against his former team here, he is at 8% ownership.

Week 13 GPP One-offs

• Both Tyreek Hill and Justin Jefferson are coming in with low ownership numbers and are the pivots in the top salary tier of WRs.
• Tua and Waddle are also at low ownership, but not having LT Terron Armstead will likely be a problem against the 49er defensive front. Additionally, RT Austin Jackson was ruled OUT on Friday, which only makes matters worse for Miami.
• Lamar Jackson, who has looked terrible, might be under 5% owned in Week 13 GPPs.
• The Ravens are going to try and run the ball. Gus Edwards is at 4% ownership.
• While Garrett Wilson’s 2nd TD last week was flukey, Wilson gets to face a Vikings secondary that is the 5th worst against WRs. Wilson could spend much of his Sunday against a 4th string CB as they be dropping like flies in the Minnesota secondary.
• Speaking of the Jets, Zonovan Knight and Ty Johnson are likely the only 2 RBs for New York this weekend. I don’t know about you, but I can totally see a low owned Zonovan Knight winning someone $1 million in the Week 13 GPP Milly Maker.
• Still want to talk to Jets? Yeah, me neither. However, Ty Conklin is going against his former team which makes for what feels like the 13th revenge game narrative this week.
• DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett look low owned, but I bet they come in higher than the 4.9% and 6.1% that I have them at.
• Cordarelle Patterson and Drake London will have low ownership, but can you trust Atlanta against a Steeler defense? Since the Steelers will be the highest owned DST, London and/or CPatt could be nice contrarian plays in Week 13 GPPs.
• The Gmen are dealing with some significant injuries to their secondary, which is only good news for Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel.
• If Romeo Doubs continues to be OUT, then I like Christian Watson against the Bears pass defense that just lost safety Eddie Jackson to IR.
• If rostering anyone from the Texans, then you could do worse than Dameon Pierce. The Browns are the 2nd worst teams vs RBs. Also, Nico Collins has quietly become the Texans’ WR1 as he has taken over the target share lead from Brandin Cook, who is OUT this week. Pierce is looking at 7.6% ownership while Collins is coming in at 5.7% (but it’s been rising since the Cooks news).
• Justin Fields is going to play. He will also be low owned. David Montgomery is in play as well, but I have him around 9% owned.
• Nick Chubb…but um….just read the next section…

The Elephant in the Room

I have Deshaun Watson at 5.5% ownership. First of all, I’m not sure where you all fall in terms of your opinion on whether or not this man should be getting to play football, but rostering him does not exactly fill me with warm fuzzies. Second I’m not sure what my ownership algorithm knows what to do with him, so I do not trust this number. Lastly, I feel it’s wise to remind ourselves that this man has not played in a competitive NFL game in 23 months, so expecting him to win you a Week 13 GPP might be like asking for an early Christmas miracle.

However, it’s worth noting that in his return, Watson gets to play the exact team that traded him away. The Texans are actually decent against QBs and WRs according to the numbers, but teams have been electing to run on them because they are so bad in that department. I like the Nick Chubb play much better as it is the correct football decision to just hand him the ball 25 times in this matchup. Can we trust the Browns to do that? Yeah…didn’t think so either.

Sometimes football decisions are influenced by other factors like, let’s say for instance the amount of draft capital and money that an organization has put into acquiring a specific player. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Browns viewed it that way and come out throwing or featuring Watson in the run game. It also wouldn’t surprise me if they were successful with it either. It isn’t likely, but it is possible.

Bonus DFO Advice

My favorite play on the slate is Derrick Henry. If people pay up for RB, they are going to pick Jacobs, Ekeler, and Chubb before Henry. Henry is probably going over 100 yards and at least 1 TD. If he can outscore his colleagues in this price range then it could very well be the ticket to a high placed finish.

Thanks for checking out my Week 13 GPP break down. Good luck in your Week 13 GPP contests!

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