Your Fired!

It’s no secret that this NFL season has been generally unappealing. Through seven weeks, twelve teams have winning records (and five of those teams are undefeated) and a majority of the division races are pretty much over. Sunday and Monday Night Football programming has actually provided a pretty decent product — including the Seahawks getting another game handed to them by the officials on a national broadcast — but definitely not to the expectations of fans when they hear about the amount of work put into creating the schedule. I don’t watch TNF but I’ll assume it’s as bad as ever considering not everyone can magically recover as quickly as Tom Brady/Marion Jones/Bill Romanowski to put up a good TNF performance.

Whether or not the atrociousness of the NFL’s 2015 product will end up being the saving grace for the careers of many coaches and general managers, I figure 40% of the season gives us an adequate sample to discuss the potential head coach firings that will be coming down the line.
Already Gone (1) – Joe Philbin (MIA – 4th Season): I always figured the NFL swayed from midseason firings because there’s really nothing to gain. Teams don’t typically do any better under an interim coach (and if they do, it’s not like they make the playoffs so you’re just getting screwed in the draft) and, with pretty much all the firing going down on Black Monday, it isn’t like you need to get a jump on your coaching search in August. But after going 1-3 under Philbin, the Dolphins have actually become a .500 team — and will not compete for shit in a division with the Jets and P*triots.

One-Win Candidates (2) – John Harbaugh (BAL – 7th Season), Jim Caldwell (DET – 2nd Season): Of the four one win teams (also TEN and SF), you’ve got to imagine someone is going to go. Because Whiz and Tomsula are new and in rebuilding/collapsing programs, they should be safe. Harbaugh is steering the best 1-6 team in history so…actually I don’t really know what that means. And, while Caldwell is also only in his second season, the Lions have already started axing the offensive staff. Why do I not think this shake up will save Caldwell? From the article:

Caldwell on if we’ll see much difference in the offense under Cooter: “You can’t change an offense in it’s entirety in just two days time.”

Way to set the bar high there, Jim. DET has one game at KC before the bye, during which I expect Caldwell to be let go and replaced by Interim Head Coach Jim Bob Cooter.

Two-Win Candidates (2) – Mike McCoy (SD – 3rd Season), Gus Bradley (JAX – 3rd Season), : There are EIGHT two-win teams in the NFL. EIGHT. And it’s a smorgasbord of bad teams, underachieving teams, and a whole lot of AFC football. The comprehensive summary is: JAX, HOU, TB, CHI, CLE, KC, SD, DAL. I think the ownership in TB, CHI, CLE, and DAL get their situations. You’d have to hope the same for Houston as well (at least through Saturday so it doesn’t mess with our posting schedule).

I think Andy Reid has until the season’s end but ending under .500 could be the end of his run in KC. In the same vein of “Last coach in the AFC West has to go”, I think McCoy is on the hot seat — plus it’d give the Chargers a chance to get a sexy new coaching hire in place for their move to LA. As for Bradley, they haven’t given him shit for players and he hasn’t provided shit in terms of an on-field product, but that’s never stopped bad owners from putting all the onus on the head coach before.
Three-Win Candidates (2) – Chuck Pagano (IND – 3rd Season), Chip Kelly (PHI – 3rd Season),  : Being a three win team at this point in their schedule is a huge relief for some teams (MIA, STL) and a fire alarm for others (IND, SEA). So, while I doubt any of these coaches will get relieved before missing the playoffs*, this sure looks like the meat of this year’s Black Monday list. Current teams include: WAS, BUF, IND, NO, PHI, STL, SEA.

*(Note) Per CBS Sports, Pagano is the closest to getting the axe and, while he celebrates getting one more day, maybe he should be celebrating one more minute.

Of the remaining candidates, Chip seems like the most likely candidate as his fingerprints are all over every part of that team and, should they fall short of the playoffs (with a favorable remaining schedule), I could see him getting released. Of course, what happens in the minds of Dan Snyder and Terry Pegula on any given day is beyond me. The remaining coaches seem to have had enough success (and have a good enough shot at finding success this season) that their owners won’t pull the plug — even though NO is gonna need to rebuild someday. Also, give me a HOT TAEK point for noting that Fischer may also get canned for not being sexy enough for LA.

Long-Shot Candidates (2) – Jim Tomsula (SF – 1st Year), Mike Pettine (CLE – 2nd Year): Not because of the circumstances of either coach, really, the 49ers front office is so fucked in the head that I can see them getting through this season and saying, “You know, we’ve seen enough. We’re going to bring in Joe Philbin. And here he is. Joe Philbin. The new coach of the San Francisco 49ers.”

As for Pettine, he’s really doing the best he can with a cursed team. A team that, according to his Wikipedia bio, is the Factory of Sadness. And while Jimmy Haslam has been a vocal backer of Pettine, nothing would be more Brownsy than yanking the transmission out of this rusted out ’97 Blue Bird just as it starts picking up momentum.