Boris’s Week Three DFS Writeup

It’s been a long week. Between being busy at work and the losses incurred during week two, I have been eager to try and make amends for week 3, whilst finding time to put in the research. The bankroll took a big ole hit last week, so redemption is the road I am hoping to get on.

QB

Kyler Murray – $8300  1x  $9000

When he’s healthy, Kyler has been the best QB in fantasy football regardless of matchup. $ continues to be the only factor. The only thing that gives me pause here is that his day might be over after the 3rd quarter; but also, if it is, he likely did a lot to get his team into the position of resting him in the 4th quarter. 

Patrick Mahomes – $8200  1x  $8700

It’s hard to ignore a 55.5 point total. Mahomes is practically matchup proof. Unless you get a D line who can bowl over the Chiefs O-line, then Mahomes is gonna get his. The Chargers just made life a little difficult for Dak and company, so I don’t think we are dealing with a ceiling game here. So we are clear, a ceiling game for Mahomes is something like 4 or 5 TDs and over 350 yards passing, but 18 – 21 DK points should happen, and he certainly has upside. If you do think he only gets something like 275 yards and 2 TDs, look elsewhere. I came across an interesting trend with Mahomes this week too. Whenever he plays during the 1 o’clock hour, his ownership is lower than normal. In gpps, don’t sleep on Mahomes just in case he does go nuclear. 

Lamar Jackson – $7800  1.15x  $8400

I constantly need to remind myself not to chase last week’s performances, so I will be upfront and say I am not going here. Lamar does look like he is back though. His style of play almost commands that he get 100 yards rushing and at least 1 rushing TD to be worth the DFS investment. The appeal for both is a 3 point DK bonus for 100 yards and a rushing TD is worth 6, while a passing TD is 4. So there’s allure there because Lamar can hit value in a way no other QB in the NFL currently can. In week one vs the Raiders Lamar had 235 passing yards, 1 passing TD and 86 yards rushing. That totals 20 DK points, which is right around the 2.6x we need. My problem is that if you don’t get that upside, like he gave in the primetime matchup with KC last week, then the rest of your lineup could suffer. I need to see a little more from both the Ravens and their opponent(s) before I risk Lamar in cash.

Russell Wilson – $7600  1.15x  $8400

Oh look at me being so smart and writing up all the top quarterbacks! The Vikings have allowed two offenses to throw on them in two weeks. They had one of the worst secondaries last year and this year does not look much different. Russ’s revamped offense under OC Shane Waldron looks great for him. He is staying upright more often as he is getting more protection, they are incorporating more play action, and the results have been there. This game also has 55.5 point total.

Tom Brady – $6800  1.25x  $7800

The Rams defense has looked pretty decent, but that has been against guys named Dalton, Wentz and Eason. The Bucs may indeed be the best offense in football at the moment, and you can get their starting QB at $1500 less than the top guy. I do worry about Brady’s lack of mobility, but I honestly think he’s record chasing at this point in his career. Tom once had the record for most TDs in a season with 50, and then Manning came along to get 55. Now Brady has a stellar offense, an extra game now that the season has expanded to 17 games, and he’s averaging 4.5 TDs a game; granted that’s only a 2 game sample size. Brady needs to average 3.3 TDs a game in order to eclipse Manning’s record. I mean, don’t you think he’s thought about it? Want more proof? Inside the red zone Brady has thrown 14 passes through 2 games; no one else has thrown more than 8. If you pencil in Brady for 250 yards and 3 TDs, that’s 22 DK points with upside. (As an aside, I expect Mahomes is thinking about this record too, and right now I bet both eclipse the 55 TD mark.) I am, however, marginally concerned about AB being out this week.

Justin Herbert – $6500  1.25x  $7500

A decade or so ago, I had a girlfriend who cheated on me, and to her credit, admitted it. In a moment of anger and frustration I told an older friend of mine about it. We’ll call this person John. I was like “She’s such a blah, blah, expletive deleted, blah, blah.” His reply: “Buddy, you don’t how lucky you are.” I was like “WTF are you talking about?” John said, “Buddy (he led every sentence or question with “Buddy”), she told you, that means she’s sorry, and she wants you back. She is going to do so much stuff to you…so much freaky stuff. Buddy, you’re in a good spot.” John has since passed and I’m sure I’m paraphrasing here, but…HE WAS RIGHT. Yes, the wounds are fresh here with Herbert. But, as much as you shouldn’t chase last week’s performances, you shouldn’t avoid current matchups because of bad ones, or outliers, from last week as well. Herbert attempted over 40 passes in two games and has exactly 31 completions in both. He also threw for over 337 yards in one and 338 in the other. He also only has 1 TD in each game. Positive TD regression is coming for Herbert. Herbert was also the lineup trains as the preferred QB last week. I play in DK contests of over 10,000 people, and he was over 40% owned. He burned those folks with his performance, and they are not going back to him. He will not be 40% owned and he is arguably in a better matchup against a team who likes to run up the score and whose secondary hasn’t looked very good. The Chargers will be forced to throw. Herbert is not going to end the season with only 17 TDs. DFS players need to have short memories. This is, again, my cash game QB. In two games last year against the Chiefs, Herbert threw for over 600 yards, 4 TDs, and added 27 rush yards with 2 rushing TDs.

Derek Carr – $5900  1.4x  $7200

This is a situation that needs to be monitored for a few reasons. First, Carr is questionable with an ankle injury, and as a general rule I do not like playing injured players in cash. If he comes off the injury report, then maybe. He did put in a full practice on Friday so he we likely start. Another thing is that it’s the Dolphins and teams are attacking them with their ground game. Lastly, Josh Jacobs is questionable as well and will likely miss this game. This whole situation is one I am likely avoiding in cash, but Carr and the Raiders have been better than I thought they would be.

Daniel Jones – $5800  1.55x  $7400

What I like about Jones this week is that he is facing the lowly Falcons. I don’t like that he has a price increase because of it, but thems the breaks. Jones has shown some decent rushing ability thus far, he has some capable targets in the passing game. I do have a little pause here in case the Gmen feel it’s time to unleash Saquon, but Falcons look vulnerable against anyone and anything right now. Price is too high on Fanduel though.

Note: I know I wrote up a bunch of QBs this week. For cash purposes I am not using Lamar, Carr nor Jones. I didn’t write up Teddy Bridgewater, but he could be good in a gpp like he was last week as paying down to someone who can put up over 20 DK points helps you in other areas.

Also, I expect there to be interest in Justin Fields based on his price and shiny newness.

but I can’t do it. He’ll rack up some yards with his Jalen Hurts-esque running ability, but he’ll likely turn the ball over too. I mean, you can go here in a gpp, but don’t consider him in cash games.

RB

Derrick Henry – $8600  1.05x  $9700

In week one Chris Carson put up 91 yards on 16 carries vs the Colts. In week two Sony Michel and Darrell Henderson put up 99 yards. The Titans secondary continues to not be good, but I don’t know how successful Jacob Eason is going to be against them. My point? This could be the right game script for Derrick Henry and the Titans this week. I still maintain that last week’s game script and usage for Henry made zero sense in terms of what typically happens, but that and $3.99 can get me a Big Mac. I also don’t see how giving someone the rock 41 times in a game is sustainable over the long run. Don’t expect another 50 point output, and to be honest I probably won’t get here in cash, but this could very well be a favorable situation for Henry.

Dal Cook – $8400  1x  $9500 / Alexander Mattison –  $6000  1.75x  $5200

Dal actually might not even play as he hasn’t been practicing this week. We just saw what Henry did against this defense, and in week one Jonathan Taylor was the leading rusher and receiver for the Colts. Dal Cook does that too. He plays on all three downs and is almost a lock for 20+ touches regardless of game script. I’d love to get to him this week. Other than my initial builds which make this difficult, I don’t think I’ll end up here if Cook is hurt…I suppose that’s also why Mattison is priced at $6000, just in case Cook is ruled out in advance. Mattison would be chalk city if Cook misses, and the decision would be to just eat it or not. Last time Mattison inherited the starting role because Cook was out, he was a huge disappointment at something like 85% ownership in cash games. Side note: in week one I advised you to add Mattison if you drafted Cook. I have not drafted Cook in any league this year, but now have added Mattison in 75% of my leagues off the free agent wire.

Austin Ekeler – $7200  1.35x  $7000

I feel like Draftkings is the only site that has the correct handle on this guy’s price. Ekeler is much like Cook in that he will receive work regardless of the game script and he plays on all three downs. It’s also the Chiefs, who are likely to put up points, so Ekeler should be a busy man in this matchup as the Chargers attempt to stay in front, or have to play catchup. He will likely be playing from behind though IMO, and in that case he will be utilized as a receiver, which is arguably better for DFS purposes in Lombardi’s offense. Don’t play both Ekeler and Herbert in cash, do play them both in a gpp.

Saquon Barkley – $6500  1.35x  $6000

Saquon might be criminally underpriced this week. The Falcons D can be had by both the run and the pass, and Barkley can get heavily involved in both aspects of the game. The Gmen spent the first two weeks easing him in, and now they are 0-2 (fun fact: this is the 7th year in a row they’ve started 0 – 2). At some point they’re going to have to cut the umbilical cord and let the person they spent a second round pick on try to win them some games. Not sure I can go here in cash games cuz I just can’t trust it yet, but start him in seasonal if you used a high draft pick on him.

Ty’Son Williams – $5800  1.35x  $6400

Thanks to the curb stomping Aaron Jones and Aaron Fraudgers put on the Lions, they are now the worst defense against RBs. Back in week one they also gave up 100+ yards to Eli Mitchell and the 49ers. The Ravens want to rush the ball, and they’re pretty good at it. Lat Murray is a bit of a concern here because with his addition Williams only saw 50% of the snaps. Murray saw 36%. What we need to ask ourselves here is: “Is 50% of snaps enough to get Williams to 15 DK points?” That might depend on whether or not he gets into the endzone.

Kenyan Drake – $5500  1.4x  $5700 / Payton Barber – $4300  1.9x  $5600

This is contingent upon Josh Jacobs, who is Doubtful, being out. Also, this is only if you believe in narratives, which in this case is the “Kenyan Drake Revenge Game” narrative. We have seen that the Dolphins can be beaten on the ground, but Payton Barber could as easily be the guy in this scenario so tread lightly.

Mike Davis – $5100  1.45x  $5700

While the world his hyping the performance by Cordarrelle Patterson this past week, I’m here to tell you that Davis is still the RB1 of this offense. In both games this year he has put up over 10 DK points, and somehow his price has gone down. In a negative game script last week, he had 7 receptions out of the backfield. He is likely facing a negative game script here again. He also has yet to score a TD. Like Herbert, he is due. In two weeks he has had 34 total touches and 37 balls sent his way via handoff or pass. The Giants have let RBs receive on them, I like Davis in this game script where the Falcons are likely trailing.

James White – $4900  1.65x  $5400

This is mostly a DK play. He’s too cheap considering the role he has in this offense right now. In his first two games he has 12.1 and 18.5 DK points. He is the checkdown option for Mac Jones, and the Pats want to feature their backs right now so that they can control the tempo and stifle the opposing offense with their defense.

WR

Tyreek Hill & Stefon Diggs

They’re expensive and you can play them. I won’t be in cash games because I’m paying up elsewhere and don’t want to risk either not being able to pay off their salary, but they’re fine.

Deandre Hopkins – $8200  1.05x  $8500 / Rondale Moore – $5000  1.85x  $5600

Despite 4 catches on 4 targets for 54 yards and a TD last week, DHop did not reach the value needed with 15.4 DK points. This can be the problem with paying up for WRs. Moore on the other hand played 29% of snaps in week one for 5 targets, 4 catches and 68 yards. At $3000 that was a great ROI (return on investment). Week 2 his price went to $4000 and he played 46% of snaps, had 8 targets for 7 grabs, 114 yards and a TD. If Moore’s usage in this offense continues to climb like it has, it won’t be long until he’s WR2 in this offense. Additionally, Hopkins showed up on the injury report this week with a rib issue, so Moore might be in line for a lot more work. Regardless of that though, this team frequently uses 3 and 4 WR sets, so Moore is in play even though he is now at $5000, he might not be this cheap for long. That SD price though 👀

Tyler Lockett – $7400 1.2x  $8000 / DK Metcalf – $7300  1.2x  $7200

I was asked my opinion in the comments on this situation last week. The worry here is that Tyler Lockett, who has hit the 100-yard mark in each game and scored three total TDs, is now the WR1 and Metcalf’s role has diminished. Metcalf received 11 targets last week. Metcalf is going to be fine. Lockett does this every year, he shows up with monster games but disappears for a month. I’m just not sure that this is the week he disappears. Both of these guys are firmly in play vs the Vikings secondary. Lockett arguably has the best matchup vs CB Breeland who is currently ranked 102 out of 102 CBs by Pro Football Focus. That’s bad. Teams know this too. If the Vikings can exploit the holes in Seattle’s D, then we could have a real barn burner on our hands with multiple TDs by Russ to both of these guys. This is a must stack situation in gpps, which you can run back with Thielen, Jefferson, Osborn, and Cook or Mattison.

Justin Jefferson – $7200  1.15x  $7400 / Adam Thielen – $6800  1.25  $7600

If this game does blow up, then there will be receivers on the Vikings getting theirs. I like these two even more if Cook is out. Seattle is giving up top 12 fantasy points per game rates to WRs who line up on the left side, which is where Jefferson runs just shy of half his routes (48%). Thielen meanwhile has had 10 and 7 targets in 2 games as well as 3 TDs. With a high game total and a matchup that likely forces the Vikings to pass, Thielen could find himself with 4 or 5 total TDs on the year.

Cooper Kupp – $6800  1.2x  $7900

WTF with the price discrepancy here? Through 2 games, Kupp has a 38% target share, 21 targets for 13 catches, close to 300 yards receiving, and 3 TDS. Kupp will go up against CB Cockrell, the Bucs slot corner as Kupp typically runs routes out of the slot. Cockrell allowed stat lines of 7-74-1 and 5-49-1 in his first two games. The Bucs will likely put up points and are pretty stout vs the run, so the Rams should continue to throw Kupp’s way in this matchup. Note: Kupp is getting a ton of attention this week in the DFS chattersphere, so Bobby Trees might be an extremely good leverage play in gpps.

Keenan Allen – $6600  1.1x  $6900 / Mike Williams $6400  1.55x  $6000

DK has done a good job of bringing Williams up to an appropriate price but the other two have not. Williams’ new role is indeed the Michael Thomas role from when OC Lombardi was with the Saints. Williams is no longer just a vertical threat as his average depth of target is now 9.9 yards as opposed to 15.1 in years past. As mentioned earlier, Herbert has been putting up yardage but not TDs. Allen and Williams are likely in for multiple catches and each has a chance to go over 100 yards. If the Chiefs run up the score, the Chargers will have to try to do the same. I expect Williams to be higher owned this week as opposed to last week’s cash games where the lineup trains went with 50% Allen, and was another reason for last week’s debacle.

Mike Evans – $6300  1.25x  $7100 / Chris Godwin – $6100  1.3X  $7300

With AB out, and the Tampa offense in all out “Get Tom Brady the New TD Record Mode,” one of these guys is going to do it here. I expect Evans to get Ramsay shadow coverage (but I could be wrong) and for it to be Godwin’s turn this week.

Sterling Shepard – $5900  1.4x  $6400

The fact that Shepard costs more than Williams on SD and FD is absurd, but whatever. Shepard has gotten 9.5 targets per game and now gets the shitbum Falcons. Shepard mostly operates out of the slot, which means he’ll be up against CB Isaiah Oliver. I love targeting Mr. Oliver cuz he friggin blows. Shepard’s move back into the slot has been a boon, I suppose thanks to the presence of Kenny Golladay. Shepard’s actually tied for the league lead in catches with 17.

Chase Claypool – $5800  1.35x  $5800

Diontae Johnson. I’ve been having an ongoing debate with my DFS friends about how DJ is essentially Antonio Brown in the current Steeler offense. So we are clear, the current Steeler offense is different from years past, so the fantasy output is different. Historically, DJ has been underpriced in DFS despite this role. But as I said, he’s out. This leaves Claypool in a likely matchup against CB Apple who cannot cover someone like Claypool in man coverage. This could be a real big week, in terms of receptions for Claypool. I am not predicting a 3 TD game for Claypool like when he burst onto the scene last year, but he could have close to 10 receptions vs Apple this week.

Michael Pittman – $5500  1.85x  $5600

Heck of a price increase here after his 12 target game. Listen, I’m likely not going here with the Colt QB situation, but Pittman now gets arguably the worst secondary in football in what is a likely trailing game script. Considering the weakness of the secondary, the likely need to throw to keep up with the Titans, and Pittman’s talent, athleticism, and WR1 of this offense, I can see the play here.

Ja’Marr Chase – $5400  1.4x  $5900 / Tyler Boyd – $4700  1.4x  $5600

Tee Higgins is Doubtful for Sunday. Ja’Marr Chase has a history with Burrow from college that has carried over to the NFL and I have yet to regret putting in my lineup in each of the first two weeks. I also like Boyd’s PPR ability this week with Higgins out.

Marvin Jones – $4900  1.45x  $6300

In two games with the Jags, Marvin Jones has 9 and 11 targets, 5 and 6 receptions, and 77 and 55 yards receiving, plus he’s scored a TD in each game. Now the TDs shouldn’t be relied upon, but the targets I think can be, especially at this price. 12.7 DK points should be attainable here. I also expect that he will be popular. I’m seeing and hearing him being talked up everywhere.

Cole Beasley – $4800  1.5x  $5400

Say what you want about his vaccination issues, WFT has allowed slot receivers Allen and Shepard to have their way with them, so why not Beasley? Slot CB Fuller is allowing a 73% catch rate, and a year ago Beasley was being owned heavily in DFS. I honestly think his negative publicity is playing into ownership. Bills won’t be able to run like they did vs the Dolphins.

KJ Osborn – $3500  1.9x  $5100 

Osborn has settled in nicely as the third wide receiver for the Vikings. Through two games, as far as wideouts go, he is third on the team in routes run (71) and third on the team in targets (15). This is a nice game environment for him too as it has the potential for a lot of scoring. If you have to pay down somewhere, he’s the guy this week.

TE

Travis Kelce – $8200  1x  $8500

He doesn’t cost enough. In fact, his price dropped from week one. We saw the perils of paying down at TE last week. Just lock him in and don’t look back. 

Darren Waller – $7400

I mean, you could go here, but at $7400 I’d just pay up for Kelce. Waller is an important part of the Raider passing attack, but I have hard time believing this is a ceiling game for him. The Dolphins are not good, and are vulnerable to the run. We’ve seen both the Bills and Pats attempt to beat them on the ground. Additionally, once the Bills were up huge on them, they turned to a typically non-existent run game to finish them off. Could Waller get to the 19.2 Dk points we need here? Sure. Will he? The answer to that for me is unlikely. 

Gronk – $5500  1.5x  $6500

He’s probably catching a TD this week. In cash, if he doesn’t, you’re fucked.

TJ Hockenson – $5200 1.4x  $6300

If you do have to pay down, I would recommend going here. Hockenson has looked like an integral part of the Lions passing offense. He has had a TD in each of the first two games, so don’t rely on that, but do rely on the 9 and 11 targets he has received in the two games. He also goes up against the worst team vs TEs, BUT, and this is important, the Ravens have played Waller and Kelce through two weeks. I anticipate that Hockenson will be highly owned in cash games as we are getting a “Monday Night Football Price Discount.” If Hockenson had played on Sunday, he would likely cost more than this, but DK releases the Sunday slate before MNF. Getting to 13.5 DK points seems likely, all it would take is 6 or 7 catches. However, if it comes at the cost of Kelce, it could be a huge misstep. But…

Putting Hock at TE and Kelce in the FLEX is likely a unique build this week.

Kyle Pitts – $4900

He was lining up as a wide receiver last game, and the team just lost Russell Gage. He’s being targeted frequently in this offense, and if you’ve watched him in action, it’s easy to see why the Falcons spent the draft capital to select him 4th overall. Now rookie TEs generally take a long time to develop, and ultimately I think Pitts will get better in the coming seasons. However, he is being featured in this offense, may have a bigger role if Gage is out, and the Gmen have not made the strides I thought they would on defense.

DST

Denver Broncos – $4300  $5000

Things aren’t getting any better for Zach Wilson this week….well, maybe he won’t throw 5 picks this time, but it shouldn’t get much better.

Las Vegas Raiders – $3400  $4000

Beyond getting the lowly Dolphins this week, the Raider defense looks much improved. Also, I think if you’re a starting QB in this league and Jacoby Brissett joins your team, you should assume you’re either getting hurt or retiring real soon.

Arizona Cardinals – $3000  $$4600

Holy discrepancy here between the two sites. I know the Cardinals disappointed last week, I know. But they get Jacksonville here.

Cincinnati Bengals – $2100  $3400

If you don’t mind punting at the DST spot, I’d argue to use the Bengals who have looked much better than I anticipated. They have 3 sacks in each of their first two games, haven’t given up a ton of points to their opposition, and the Steelers O-line isn’t great. The Bengals have a CB who is likely to miss this week, but Diontae Johnson, a mainstay in the Steeler passing attack is also likely to miss. A 5 or 6 point performance is possible here.

Herbert is my cash game QB, and I am literally interested in ever other QB I wrote up in gpps.

I can’t go the Ty’Son Williams route as too much is in question there. Williams will probably need a TD to hit value and Lamar, Murray, or even Devonta Freeman could vulture that from him.

I’m paying down at RB this week.

I don’t really have a priority at WR in cash games this week. I guess it’s Kupp, who is likely high owned. I do think Marvin Jones will be highly owned which worries me a bit. I think Sutton won’t be owned as high as he should, nor will Claypool nor Chase, which I like. I think this is the week the world tries to catchup on Mike Williams, so I suspect his ownership will be higher than Allen this week.

I’m locking Kelce in at TE in cash games, which essentially forces my hand to pay down at other spots. I just don’t think the majority of DFS players have the stones to pay up at TE for some reason. I suspect Hockenson will be high owned at the TE spot.

Love the Pats D in gpps.

Bengals likely DST in cash.

I’m finding that my initial cash game build has mostly guys from the 1PM games in it, so I will play some cash games there.

Good luck all, and thanks for reading!