Kicking this week off with bonus seasonal fantasy football advice: Just. Say. No. To. Josh. Gordon.

Listen, everyone loves a good redemption story. In fact, I tried to write my own last week. Gordon hasn’t really been fantasy relevant since 2013. In 2013 I was not yet a parent, I didn’t have gray hair, I weighed 30 less pounds, didn’t need heartburn medication, hadn’t discovered IPAs, hadn’t started playing DFS, had no idea what Door Flies Open was, lived in a different state, I mean the list goes on and on. Gordon is now 8 years older and the best physical years of his life are in the rearview mirror. Josh Gordon just landed in an offense that hasn’t produced a WR2 in a LONG TIME….because….Kelce is really their WR2. I wish Gordon all the best, I really do. Substance abuse, especially in the case such as his where he was showing up to middle school classes high (https://www.gq.com/story/josh-gordon-nfl-2017-interview), is terrible. I grew up with the Gen X, D.A.R.E mentality of blaming the user. That’s not always right to do, and I truly hope he can get past it. But you’re not making it into my DFS lineup, Josh, and I’m not cutting ARob, Ty’Son Williams, Mike Davis, Mecole Hardman, or practically anyone else to pick Gordon up in seasonal. If you, dear and appreciated reader, did this, I urge you to redact.

On to Week Four!!!

QB

Patrick Mahomes – $8100  1x  $8700

I am highly curious about what an angry, 1 and 2 Mahomes is going to do.

Kyler Murray – $7800  1x  $8200

I’m not going with Josh Allen because I just don’t think he plays a full game. I can’t run the risk of my cash game QB getting benched after the 3rd quarter cuz they are up 27 – 3. Kyler on the other hand is going to play a full game in a matchup with a high point total. He will throw and run in this matchup. The Rams D can be an issue of course, but the Cardinals run a lot of plays and push the pace. Murray will find a way to put points on the board.

Matt Stafford – $7000  1.25x  $7800

The 54.5 point total is nice. The Rams do want to run the football; they gave Sony Michel 20 carries last week (for only 67 yards), Michel and Henderson 23 the week prior vs Indy (for 99 yards), and Henderson 16 carries in week one (for 70 yards). However, they also have a good passing attack as well, and the Cardinals have shown that they can be vulnerable to it, especially if their D line is not getting the pressure they want. Stafford has put up 27.3, 18.2 and 32.5 DK points in weeks 1, 2, and 3, initially showing that the trade might have been worth it. The 18.2 is exactly 2.6x this salary and the likely floor needed in cash games. We want a little more out of the QB spot, 20 is ideal, and the potential upside is there with Stafford this week.

Jalen Hurts – $6900  1.3x  $7900

Hurts did not look good vs the Boys on MNF. At the moment, he is not a good QB. However, that does not mean he is not a good fantasy QB. Chiefs opposing QBs have put up 16.6, 37.3, and 30.8. Week one was Baker Mayfield, who sucks, so we can ignore that one. My point is that 18 fantasy points out of Hurts is almost likely, and upwards of 30 is possible though I would argue that both Lamar and Herbert are better than Hurts.

Kirk Cousins – $6400  1.35x  $7500

Cousins hasn’t had a game with less than 25 DK points this year. He is too cheap. The Cleveland defense has done an admirable job of stopping the run, but they also haven’t faced a team that wants to run and can run as well as the Vikings. Dal Cook is still iffy to return, but Mattison stepped in to do well in his stead. In any event, the Vikings D has thus far been unable to shut anyone down, which has forced the Viking offense to continue to be aggressive. The Browns will try to slow the pace of this game down even though they shouldn’t, but Cousins and the passing game should still be fine, they even target the RBs fairly often in the passing attack. However, I will not be going this route as with the Browns likely slow pace, the upside for Cousins isn’t that high.

Sam Darnold – $6000  1.6x  $7200

Jalen Hurts had 35 rush yards, 326 pass yards, and two passing 2 TDs vs this team on MNF…and he didn’t even look good doing it. Darnold has scored 20.1, 22.9, and 28.3 (the game they lost CMC) in weeks 1, 2, and 3. He is also too cheap. He has also been attempting runs at the goal line and is being a vulture to his RBs. Darnold doesn’t have high rushing upside overall, but QB sneaks, QB draws, and RPOs are in play with him in the green zone. Sure, CMC is out, but his receiving group is solid, they have throwing options out of the backfield, and Dallas has not been able to fully shut down a passing offense this season. 15.6 DK points should be a shoe in here, and north of 20 is also likely.

See? Even Darnold himself agrees.

RB

I don’t need to write up Derrick Henry – $8800  1x  $10,200. If you can afford him, play him. Lol @FanDuel though.

Alvin Kamara – $8400  1.15x  $9000

This game should be a bloodbath at the line of scrimmage as the Saints have a huge advantage vs the Gmen defensive line. I honestly don’t know what the Giants are going to do if Shepard and Slayton don’t play. Saquon is not in as good of a spot as he was last week. Fire up Kamara with confidence here as the Saints offense goes right through him. Not sure I can get here in cash though at this steep price. On SD I’m locking him in though.

Najee Harris – $6800  1.45x  $8200

The Steelers have three banged up WRs going into this matchups and Big Ben threw to Harris 19 times last week. The Steeler O-line is so bad that they are dumping off quickly to Harris at an extremely high rate. I think this will continue vs Green Bay. Now, Diontae Johnson has been practicing so that might take away some opportunities for Harris should DJ play, but 2.6x this DK price tag should be achievable. Probably not going here on FD.

Deandre Swift – $6200  1.45x  $7700

I’ve been surprised by how much Swift has been featured in the passing attack thus far. As such, I’m only interested in him on DK were he is arguably underpriced considering it’s full point PPR there. The Bears aren’t a sieve on defense, but they’re also unlikely to take Swift out of the offense. Swift carries a Questionable tag, but has practiced all week. I don’t like putting injured players into cash lineups, so this will be a gpp only spot for me.

Chubba Hubbard – $5900  1.7x. $6300

Draftkings did a good job of pricing him up to a point that is going to give people pause. Hubbard is not CMC, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t capable. Couple things are giving me pause here though. First, Dallas has been decent vs running backs. Second, Royce Freeman has been getting 50% of the goal line practice time with the 1s at practice this week. I like the SD multiplier though. I do think Hubbard gets 11 or 12 DK points, but I’m not sure the necessary upside is there.

David Montgomery – $5800  1.25x  $7500

The Detroit Lions have allowed three teams to run all over them, and the Bears need to lean on someone other than Fields to try to get it done for them. This DK price is too low for Monty. It’s hard to trust the Bears to do the right thing though, especially given the colossal coaching failure last week.

CEH – $5400  1.5x  $6700

Not sure how much I trust this one considering how the Chiefs have run this offense. Additionally, I’m not plugging in CEH in cash when I am playing Kelce, but I have to address the advantage that the Chiefs O-line should have over the Eagles defensive front. The Boys just showed everyone a good way to beat this team by committing to the ground game. At $5400, it shouldn’t take CEH too much to get to the necessary fantasy output for cash games.

Trey Sermon – $5000  1.75x  $5900

Eli Mitchell is hurt (shocker), but he’s been practicing. If he plays, then this might be a situation I avoidin cash. If Mitchell is out, then Sermon is a likely lock. The Seahawks are awful against the run. Last week they let Mattison run all over them, and the week before that they let Henry have his way with them. The 49ers want to run the ball, there’s just something terrible in the water in SF, or maybe their whole Strength and Conditioning Department is friggin terrible.

Zach Moss – $5300  1.6x  $6000

If you think the Bills beat the Texans handedly, which I do, then it makes a ton of sense to salt this game away in the second half by just running the ball. The Bills having been using Moss to do that, not Singletary. 10 touches two weeks ago and 16 for Moss last week including 3 catches and a receiving TD.

Mike Davis – $5100  1.55x  $5400

Oh yeah, I am going to this well again. He leads the team in RB snaps and overall usage. He’s paid off his salary in three straight weeks, and I see no reason to stop when positive TD regression will eventually come his way.

Javonte Williams – $5000  1.85x  $5900

This one is dependent upon MG3 being out. If MG3 is out, then this is a cash lock as it will be Williams’s backfield. I like this as a gpp play as well if MG3 is in. Ravens have been subpar vs the run.

WR

Devante Adams – $7900  1x  $8100

Perfectly fine to go here as the Steeler defense should not be capable of stopping Adams, but you’ll need 20.5 DK points for this price to pay off. 100 yards and a TD ought to make that happen though.

Cooper Kupp – $7800  1x  $8600

Well, I basically called this price increase, and $7800 should be good enough to reduce the ownership numbers on Kupp this week. He’s in another matchup with a high point total (54.5) and should continue to see plenty of balls thrown his way. The Cardinals like to run a lot of plays, and if they find success against the Rams D, then achieving the point total might be in play. That’s a big if though, so I am likely not getting up to this price on DK this week.

Stefon Diggs – $7600  1.15x  $8000 / Cole Beasley – $5400  1.5x  $5900 / Emmanuel Sanders – $4900  1.65x  $5800

I think Diggs scores this week, but all Buffalo WRs are in play too. Houston has been particularly vulnerable vs outside receivers as CBs Hargreaves and Smith are allowing the 9th most fantasy points per game to outside WRs. Both players have not been of high NFL caliber. On top of that Houston is dealing with some injuries in their secondary.

DK Metcalf – $7200  1.25x  $7700 / Tyler Lockett – $7100  1.25x  $7900

I have been hesitant on Lockett during the week as he was dealing with an injury. However, he practiced in full on Friday so I am less worried. It certainly is a good matchup for the Seattle passing attack. Metcalf is going to run the majority of his routes against 34 year old CB Josh Norman in this matchup. That’s a huge physical mismatch. Adams just tooled on Norman and this team last week, I’m excited to see what Metcalf is going to do.

Terry McLaurin – $6900  1.35x  $7100

The numbers against Falcon CBs Terrell, Moreau and Green are not good. They are allowing over 70% of balls thrown in their direction to be completed. Heinicke looks McLaurin’s way often, and this is a nice bounce back spot after dealing with CB White and the Bills last week. I will be doing my damnedest to try to fit F1 in.

Cedee Lamb – $6700  1.35x  $7400

The Panthers just traded for CJ Henderson, who, while he has a high pedigree being a 9th overall pick in 2020, has not lived up to that yet. He hasn’t been good for the Jaguars thus far and he has been struggling. Now he goes to the Panthers and they are talking about starting him this week. He hasn’t been good when he knows the defense, how will he fair when he is thrown right into a new one? I actually like all the Boys receivers, but I’m not playing Cooper in cash games while he has an injury designation.

Deebo Samuel – $6500  1.35x  $6900

I’m likely rolling with Sermon this week, but the Seahawks have been vulnerable to the pass as well. Samuel has been running as the top weapon in the receiving game and with George Kittle injured and having only got in a limited practice on Friday, Samuel should be even more featured in the passing attack.

OBJ – $5800  1.3x  $6600

I think the Browns lose this week. The reason I think that is because, like Bud Kilmer, they are a running team and the Browns are going to have to throw in this game to win. (Side note…who the effing hell erects a statue of someone while they are still a coach of the team??? Good job acting like Iraqis or Communist Chinese West Canaan.) They likely won’t realize this until the fourth quarter though, at which point OBJ probably is either A. Injured  B. Had a hissy fit with a coach that ends up on Sportscenter  C. Had a hissy fit with a placekicking net that ends up on Sportscenter or D. Catches 5 balls for 62 yards and pays off this salary in one quarter. CB Breeland continues to be bad, so targeting him is something I want to do whenever I can. At 5800, OBJ is definitely in play as one long TD, such as a 40 yard TD, pays it off in one play.

Yeah, like that one.

DeVonta Smith – $5700  1.55x  $5900

Smith gets a nice spot against a KC secondary that has been getting thrown on. The game has a 55 point total and the Chiefs are the 10th worst team vs outside receivers. With Smith leading the Eagles in endzone targets and a 26% overall target share, I like his chances of having a good day. I just wish his DK price was a little less.

Corey Davis – $5000  1.5x  $5700

Other than Kelce, this is my stone cold lock of the week. Yes, Zach Wilson and the J.E.T.S. offense isn’t good…BUT…he just played two of the best defenses in the league and in week one, when I had Davis written up, he scored 2 TDs against a poor secondary. Well, we get a poor secondary here, arguably one of the worst in the NFL. CBs Jenkins and Fulton have not been anything to worry about this year. Oh by the way, we get the Revenge Game narrative.

Jaylen Waddle – $4900  1.55x  $5400

Waddle doesn’t have a lot of yards per catch, but he’s gotten 26 targets in his first three games and caught 22 of them. The Colts have allowed big days to opposing top WRs. Tyler Lockett and Cooper Kupp had their way versus the Colts secondary. Five or six catches for Waddle probably gets it done for cash games.

TE

Travis Kelce – $8100  1x  $8200

HE WENT DOWN IN PRICE???? The only reason for that is because he was only 5% owned in cash games last week. They are trying to get people to play him because most do not think they can pay up at this position and then roster players at other positions who can produce. I’ll gladly take Kelce’s likely output of 20+ DK points to anyone else’s 13 at this position. Yes, that includes you Dalton Schultz and the likely chalk at the position this week.

Yep, just one TE.

‘

So we are clear though, you could pay down at TE to someone who gets a TD or 2 in a gpp, but I’m not doing that in cash games.

DST

Buffalo Bills – $4300  $5000

They are priced up for a reason, and that reason is the Texans.

New Orleans Saints – $3800  $4800

@Giants

WFT – $3500  $4000

Get right spot against the Falcons who have a worse O-line than the Steelers. I’ll have a hard time going here as they just haven’t lived up to their billing, but it really wouldn’t surprise me if they sack Matt Ryan 5+ times.

Detroit Lions – $2100  $4100

Punt DST of the week, at least on DK. We saw how bad Fields looked last week. The Bears O-line doesn’t look great either.

Where I’m at on Draftkings:

Darnold is my cash game QB

Paying down at RB

Locking in Davis and doing my best to get F1 in

You know what I’m doing at TE

Paying down at DST

Differences on SD

Using a different QB

Locking in Kamara and probably Henry

Differences on FD

Using Mahomes

Using Metcalf

I welcome any comments or questions. Thanks for reading!