Prelude

The pay line in cash games was absurd last week. This happens a few times a year and is a major factor into the average pay line. It usually happens when chalk players like Henry and Mattison (over 60% owned last week) go bananas. This is why we want players with safe floors and potential upside of high ceilings. The pay line has been going up every year because there are more offensive points being scored each year. Additionally, there is one more game this year so the pay line could see a dramatic increase when all is said and done. Anyway, we shouldn’t expect a pay line of 3.3x again this week (law of averages and 3 less games on the slate), and I would actually argue that we likely see a line below the standard 2.6x, but I am going to use a baseline of 2.7x just in case, which means the goal on Draftkings is to put together a lineup that will score 135 DK points. I’m just trying to get ahead of the curve and instill a new habit that should be beneficial in the long run.

Prelude 2

Week 6’s name should be changed to Week Questionable. I long for the days when Probable was still a designation. It honestly feels like everyone and their mother is questionable for week 6, and you have to sort through practice reports and try to discern why player X was rested and if he’s really hurt or whatever the hell. This obviously makes handicapping nigh impossible while also trying to keep a day job and participating in a family. Thank you, I just wanted to cry about that for a minute.

On to Week 6!

QB

Patrick Mahomes – $8300  1x  $9000

They made it mad again. He wasn’t good last week, and he still put up 22 DK points. The WFT defense has not looked good and Mahomes lost last week. It’s quite possible that Mahomes could go nuclear here again. 2.7x brings us directly to the outing he had last week as a floor, and the ceiling is quite large this week. If you can fit Mahomes in your cash lineup, I won’t argue with you. On SuperDraft, I’m just playing him and not looking back.

Lamar Jackson – $7400 1.15x  $8200

Can’t go here in cash either, and you shouldn’t chase MNF’s performance here as well. However, the Chargers are vulnerable vs the run, and Lamar is a runner, though he didn’t really look like one last week. The lack of running on MNF and not chasing previous performances has me out in cash, but gpp definitely an option here in a potential shootout game. Remember what I said in last week’s autopsy though (to thine ownself be true by the way), the game that everyone expects to shootout often is not the one that does. Also, Lamar is Questionable with an illness but should be good to go.

Name the movie!

Justin Herbert – $7300  1.25x  $8000

Herbert is averaging 315 passing yards per game and the Chargers are throwing the ball 63% of the time and are running close to 70 plays a game. Now last week definitely helped increase that stat, but the Ravens aren’t the defense they used to be. Not sure how likely I am to land here, but Herbert is proving to have one of the safest floors in football. 2.7x this salary is 19.7 points, equal to his 2nd lowest output of the year during week 2, when he threw for 338 yards but only had 1 TD.

Joe Burrow – $6300  1.45x  $7400

My love affair with this gentleman is growing by the week. He was taken to the hospital after last week’s game with a throat contusion. While that sounds bad, it was basically just an inflammation. I feel I get an inflammation in my throat every time I have one too many bourbons, but I play through it. In any event, it just goes to my point that this dude don’t quit. We have yet to see a true ceiling game out of Burrow, but if the Lions can keep up with the Bengals we could see one here. The pause I have though is that teams are beating the Lions with the ground attack, which firmly puts Mixon, who is Questionable (yes this is a theme), in play.

Kirk Cousins – $6200  1.35x  $7100 and Sam Darnold – $6100  1.45x  $7500

This could be that game that shoots out without anyone expecting it to. Cousins has had two crappy outings in a row and Darnold regressed to NY Jet Darnold last week. The total is 46, which is going to keep DFS players away. The bad outings, the low ownership, the likelihood of no shootout here, makes me like this game for gpp purposes. The Panthers run the 3rd most plays per game in the league and Minnesota runs the 9th most. The worst CB in the NFL plays for the Vikings and the only QB the Panthers have played that anyone should be afraid of was Dak Prescott. The scenario that is still likely, however, is that the Vikings attack with their ground game. Additionally, the Vikings top wideouts are Questionable.

Taylor Heinicke – $5800  1.55x  $7300

I love this spot for Heinicke. KC’s defense is bad, here is what they have been allowing to QBs:

Josh Allen – 315 yards – 3 TDs – 59 rush yards – 1 rushing TD

Jalen Hurts – 387 yards – 2TDs – 47 rush yards

Justin Herbert – 281 yards – 4TDs – 16 rush yards

Lamar Jackson – 239 yards – 1TD – 107 rush yards – 2 rushing TDs

Baker Mayfield – 321 yards – 0TDs….LOL what a loser.

Granted, outside of Mayfield the other 4 are better players than Heinicke, but Henicke should still end up in a situation that forces him to throw. Both the KC defense being bad against the pass and the likely game script should put Henicke in a position to put up at least 15.6 DK points, with the likelihood of him eclipsing 20 also in play. Kansas City is the worst team in the league vs QBs. The second worst? The Football Team.

RB

Austin Ekeler – $7900  1.2x  $8400

The short passing game works vs Baltimore and Ekeler is game script proof as he is involved in both the run and passing attack. It is indeed coming to fruition that Ekeler is the Alvin Kamara in this new Charger offense. On the salary sites getting him will no doubt be a challenge, but on SuperDraft it is not.

Dal Cook – $7700  1.1x  $8800

Dal Cook was taken off the injury report so it is wheels up for him. Alexander Mattison is Questionable. The Vikings do want to run the ball. The Cowboys showed everyone that it can be done against these Panthers and the Eagles really don’t run the ball so that keeps the Panthers run D “ranked high.” Teams like the Texans and Jets have also contributed to the Panther high ranking. Cook also contributes in the passing game as well, so in a situation where this game goes nuclear, Cook will still participate, which makes him game script proof like Ekeler.

Zeke Elliot – $7100  1.15x  $8300

I doubt I find myself here, especially since Elliot is Questionable, but with a healthy Zach Martin, the Cowboy run game is in play. I do think that Pats keep this game competitive and do try to limit Zeke in this game, so I don’t like Elliot’s ceiling this week. It would probably take 2 or 3 TDs for Elliot to really have a day here, which could happen, but I can’t rely on that.

Joanthan Taylor – $6600  1.25x  $7500

Taylor has come to life in the last two weeks, and now gets a nice matchup vs the Texans who have given up over 100 total yards on the ground in four straight weeks. Taylor has seen a minute increase in his role in the passing game, which helps on DK as well.

Joe Mixon – $6400  1.2x  $7000

Mixon is Questionable with an ankle injury. I REALLY want to go here as the Lions are terrible against the run. 100 yards and at least 1 TD is in play for Mixon this week, but obviously the injury is an issue. Paying attention on Sunday morning to the reports on him will be necessary. Mixon did practice in a limited capacity on Friday, so that is a good sign that he will play.

Kareem Hunt – $6200 1.25x  $7400 / Demetric Felton – $4000  2x  $4600

Hunt is Questionable. Chubb was Questionable but was ruled out on Friday. As long as Hunt is healthy enough then this becomes his backfield. If Hunt is also ruled out, then Felton steps in as the lead back. The Browns want to attack via the ground game and will do so behind the best run blocking line in the league. If Hunt is out, which I am hoping for, then Felton is an auto play and I can make almost any lineup work. In gpp, I feel Felton is in play too even if Hunt dresses.

Chubba Hubbard – $5900  1.55x  $6900

CMC was Questionable and is now out. Hubbard was used way more like CMC typically is last week vs Philly, and I expect that to continue here. The Carolina RB spot is a featured staple in this offense, and even if this game turns into a shootout, Hubbard should still see some run that gets him to 15.9 DK points.

JD McKissic – $4800  1.55x  $5200

Antonio Gibson is Questionable as he is dealing with a shin fracture and apparently is going to play through it??? This is a tough place to go in cash games, but the likely scenario is that WFT is going to be playing from behind this week. When that happens and WFT ends up in the hurry up, it’s checkdown time for McKissic. Honestly 4 catches probably gets us to where we need to be. Not really interested on SD and FD though since it’s only half point ppr.

Khalil Herbert – $4600  2x  $5500

Damian Williams became Questionable due to being flagged for Covid and is now out. Herbert split the snaps and touches with Williams last week and arguably looked like the better back carrying the ball 18 times for 75 yards. I’ll be honest…I never heard of this guy until last week, but he’s possibly the lead back this week in an offense that appears to want to help QB Fields out with a run game. Just get ready for this guy to be chalk in cash.

WR

Davante Adams – $9000  1x  $8500

2.7x $9K = 24.3 DK points. Adams has done that twice out of 5 weeks. For those of you keeping score at home, that’s 40% of the time, which honestly is high. Feel free to play him, but if he doesn’t achieve that, it could easily sink your lineup.

Tyreek Hill – $8500 1.05x $8700 / Mecole Hardman – $4200  1.5x  $5500 / Demarcus Robinson – $3300  1.75x  $5000

The KC WR situation is kind of a conundrum for me this week. Tyfreek is Questionable with a quad and didn’t practice this week until Friday when he got in some limited work. I’ll tell you right now that I’m not playing Hill in cash because I am going to play Kelce. However, if Hill were to be ruled out, then both Hardman and Robinson get a huge upgrade in this matchup, and I would have to consider going to one of them.

Cooper Kupp – $7900  1x  $8200 / Robert Woods – $6100  1.3x  $6900

I don’t think I really need to write either of these two up. Bradberry has not looked like the corner he has been in the past and the Rams have one of the more consistent passing attacks in the league. Only question I have is: which one is it going to be? I can’t really trust either one in cash, but one of these two, or maybe even both, is probably having a really good day.

DJ Moore – $7300  1.2x $7600 / Robby Anderson – $4800  1.45x  $5500

This play basically comes down to whomever will run his routes against CB Breeland. Everything I am reading and listening to is suggesting that it will be Anderson who faces him. If that’s the case, then a long TD pass is in play for Anderson. Speaking of reading and listening to fantasy football stuff, no one is talking this game up as a possible shootout, in fact most are expecting a low scoring contest here. This just reinforces my opinion of trying this one out in gpp…the ownership numbers on the Vikings and Panthers will be low. In gpp, the Vikings receivers are in play too.

Terry McLaurin – $7100  1.3x  $7400

For all the reasons I like Heinicke, I like F1 even more. Except on Friday he popped up on the injury report with a hamstring and is now Questionable!

HC Rivera said they pulled McLaurin from practice out of “an abundance of caution,” which by the way is my third most hated phrase/word to have come out of the pandemic. This is a smash spot for F1 vs the KC secondary. In my initial research, he was my stone cold lock of the week. Now we have to monitor the situation on Sunday morning. Also, if he is out, I think it decreases the ceiling of both Heinicke and Mahomes, though I still think Mahomes’s floor is quite high.

Ja’Marr Chase – $6700  1.3x  $7800

Can’t stop, won’t stop. There is one person in the history of the NFL who has had more fantasy points through his first 5 games in the NFL, and that person is….

Randy Moss. This week, the Lions CBs Oruwariye and Jacobs will go up against Chase. Pro Football Focus has Oruwariye ranked as the 102nd CB. As for the other one you’ve never heard of…he’s an undrafted player who hasn’t played enough to qualify. Chase’s price has gone up, but it’s probably not nearly enough for this matchup. Chase finds the endzone again this week. Tee Higgins is also in play as he is the WR2. Tyler Boyd just isn’t safe enough when he has two WRs ahead of him in the lineup.

Brandin Cooks – $5800  1.45x  $6500

While this is a good matchup for the Colts defense, they haven’t been good at defending WRs. I have a ton of stats here to to backup my Cooks play that will likely put your kid to sleep if you want to bore them to bed, but what you need to know is that Cooks is really the only guy catching passes in this offense, is too cheap, is likely facing a negative game script (meaning the Texans will have to pass), and that Cooks lines up all over the formation for Houston against a Zone defense that ranks shitty in a bunch of categories that benefits Cooks. Trust me. If you don’t I can post them in the comments.

Michael Pittman – $5500  1.6x  $5800

Since week one, Pittman has not had a week without double digit fantasy points. His target share has increased and he’s solidifying his spot as WR1. The Texans have a “high ranking” vs WRs, but they’ve played the Browns who ran all over them and the Bills who had no reason to throw since they shut them out. I’m sure something stupid like Mo Allie Cox getting into the endzone is going to happen again, but Pittman is too cheap given his role and this matchup.

Jakobi Meyers – $5500  1.65x  $5800

He is WR1 and at the head of the Patriots target share. The Cowboys are not all that good against the pass. Additionally, and I didn’t realize this until last week, Meyers has yet to catch and NFL TD. That does have to change at some point, I’m not sure it happens this week, and Meyers doesn’t have the ceiling that I would prefer. Getting to 14.8 DK points is likely here though.

Allen Robinson – $5300  1.45x  $5900

I ain’t doing it in cash, but he will go off soon, and he will win someone a ton of money. He is too cheap for his talent and the Packers are still banged up in their secondary.

Sterling Shepard – $5000  1.5x  $6200

Before he went down, Shepard was with the league leaders in targets and receptions. He has no injury designation coming into this game where the Gmen will likely have to throw to keep up. While everyone is going bonkers over Toney. who is Questionable, I am here to tell you not to forget about Dre, or Sterling Shepard, the Giants’s WR1. The Jalen Ramsay thing does give me pause, but I think Shepard gets there on short yardage receptions alone.

Rashod Bateman – $3000  NA(good job SuperDraft)  $5000

With Sammy Watkins already ruled out with a hamstring injury, 1st rd pick Rashod Bateman is set to be activated off IR. He’s minimum priced on Draftkings. It takes some audacity to put him in a cash lineup, but it honestly wouldn’t take much here, 3 or 4 grabs ought to do it. There is also a ceiling here because if he scores a TD, then he smashes value. The Ravens do like their first round wide receivers, just look at what Hollywood Brown did in his debut. As of this writing, the activation has not officially happened so this needs monitoring.

TE

Travis Kelce – $7000  1x  $8500

$7000?????

Kelce was on the injury report as Questionable after Sunday, but practiced in full this week. He is good to go in this matchup and remains the biggest advantage at TE. I like him even more if Hill plays without being 100% healthy.

Mark Andrews – $5200  1.45x  $6300

Here is the Monday Night Football special of the week. Andrews is the likely chalk after his MNF performance as this price was already out before he put up 44.7 DK points. This is tempting chalk because paying a little down at TE will make it easier to fit in the likes of Chase, Mahomes, and F1. Andrews gets the Chargers who have a bright green 30th vs the position next to their name. It’s almost so easy a monkey could do it. As always though, do not chase last week’s performance, and Andrews basically did all that damage in one quarter of football. We will need 14 DK points out of Andrews, and that is something he has done a total of twice this season.

Ricky Seals-Jones – $3000  1.85x  $5000

Logan Thomas went on IR last week and Seals-Jones jumped into his place. He played 99% of the snaps and saw 8 targets for 5 grabs and 41 yards. While that may not seem like much, it was 3.7x his $2500 salary and would have been useful last week. The tight end position continues to be tough this year, and Kelce remains the biggest advantage at the position. However, Seals-Jones barely received a price increase this week, so my guess is he will be chalky. We know I like this spot for Heinicke, so someone other than F1 should make some catches. At 2.7x, we only need 8.1 DK points here which equates to 4 grabs for 41 yards. If he catches a TD, always a big if with TEs, then he smashes value.

DST

Here’s how DST typically looks for me week to week. I look at the matchups and the point total vs banged up teams or teams who are bad and then say, “Hey, this defense is in a real good spot this week.” Then I go over to DK where I find disappointment.

Los Angeles Rams – $4700  $5000

The Rams are that team this week and since the Gmen are banged up and aren’t all that good to begin with, we get a priced up Rams offense.

Denver Broncos – $3900  $4400

The Raiders right now:

In all seriousness, OC Olson probably won’t change the Raider offense that much initially. New interim HC Rich Bisaccia has spent the majority of his coaching career as a Special Teams Coordinator with his second most common role has been RB coach. It behooves Bisaccia to leave the offense in the hands of Olson for the immediate future. Olson will likely try to increase the pace at which the Raiders run plays, and that is probably good in the long term for Carr, Waller and Renfrow. The Broncos should be fine to use here, but I’m concerned many people may just insert a gif of dumpster fires in relation to the Raiders when the most likely scenario is that the Raiders offense should be okay. If you play the Broncos, do so because you like their defense, not because you think the Raiders are suddenly in shambles now that Knock on Wood if you’re with me is gone.

Indianapolis Colts – $3500  $4700

As an aside, typing the word Indianapolis is cringe worthy and always has been 🌎👨‍🚀🔫🧑🏻‍🚀, but they get the Texans this week. I am not convinced that Houston has figured everything out after their performance against the Pats last week.

Dallas Cowboys – $3200  $4100

Speaking of the Pats, they get the Dallas defense this week that has actually looked pretty decent this season by limiting opposing team’s offenses. The Pats offense already looks limited. I don’t like paying up for defenses as predicting a defensive TD is more difficult than predicting a TE TD. The Pats offense just isn’t equipped for a shootout, which leads me to…

New England Patriots – $3000  $3800

Now I am likely not going here in cash, but after last week vs the Texans, I am sure that Bellichick has focused on defense at practice this week. I don’t think the Pats win, but I can see a scenario where they limit the Cowboys and try to slow down the overall pace of the game.

Where I’m at

Sorry I did not have this section last week, I simply did not have the time and I was flip flopping at this point still.

On DK:

Mahomes v Heinicke…it’s going to be one of them, and it all depends on F1’s status for me.

Williams Covid designation makes K Herbert as a lock and will likely be chalky, but he affords us almost everything else we want/need.

WR is Questionable. It’s all centered around F1. If I had my preference, it would be Chase, F1, and Cooks. Pittman, Shepard, Meyers and Bateman are in play too.

TE = Kelce

DST will ultimately be who I can fit

SD differences:

Ekeler is a lock for me here. I can also play Adams easily.

FD differences:

Mixon is easy to fit.