Wanted to update everyone on something I mentioned in my DFS Preview article from 7 weeks ago: Lineup Trains. There are websites and companies out there, such as: DFS Army, Awesomo, EliteSports, Fantasypoints, Yahoo, ESPN, and several others on YouTube, Discord, and Patreon, among others, that people pay money to in an attempt to try and gain an advantage in the DFS world. There is even a Sirius XM channel devoted to them; EliteSports, Fantasypoints, Rotogrinders have shows on there. While they are at times useful, they are achieving said advantage. And good for them. They are using a cultural phenomenon to try and make money. I pay attention to them, some give away entire lineups, some, like I have, give away partial. However, they are ultimately contributing to some kind of groupthink. What I coming to learn is:

It’s tough to compete with them on a large scale given that they have researchers, algorithms, and writers who are paid to do what they do…I simply do not have the time. Therefore, we, or at least me (I), have (has) to try and find a way to combat the direction that many sites, shows, YouTube channels and blogs go. I am convinced it can be done. As evidenced previously, Sam Darnold vs the Boys was one such advantage a few weeks ago, and basically no one was on Vikings v Panthers last week. It can be done, and I will continue to try to do so.

So those things being said, my short-term goal has been to impart the things I have learned through daily fantasy sports (again I do football, PGA, NHL, and NFL Showdown which is playing fantasy within a single game and is a whole new bag of tricks), and my long term goal is try to attain a competitive advantage.

So, as a reminder, do not go betting your mortgage off my advice please. Keep it fun, keep it casual, have a Sharkbait Cocktail of the week (this week’s edition sounds especially delicious given my bourbon-based nature), and do your best to enjoy Sunday football, which, and this the other thing, I am finding myself more and more able to do when I know that the research is true, and the autopsy thereof is designed to better the next time.

Since it’s been a couple tough weeks, at least on Draftkings, I will be playing a little less there. I digress though…

QB

I’m not playing Kyler. 1. Whenever I do he shits the bed, and 2. I have no interest in a QB in a one sided game, despite what his WR1 might do.

Patrick Mahomes – $8400  1x  $8800

This game has a whopping 57 total. The Titans secondary is (checks notes) like the worst in the league. Safe floor, high ceiling = fine for cash games.

Tom Brady – $7700  1.2x  $8000

The passing TDs will keep coming. Brady has enough weapons and wherewithal to not throw into bad coverage. See below for where I think he does that. In a normal one sided matchup like I think this will be, the QB’s ceiling is ultimately diminished because he simply won’t have to keep putting up points. However, that historically has not applied to Tom, and he’s record chasing.

Aaron Fraudgers – $7500  1.3x  $7900

I found the “I still own you” bit hilarious. Fraudgers historically beats up on weaker competition. Hello WFT. Aaron likely achieves the 20 plus DK points we need here, and there is potential for him to go HAM in this matchup. Last year Green Bay averaged 35 points against Cover 1 defenses. What does WFT run? Cover 1. Fraudgers is projected at 2% onwership in gpps, so I’ll have some shares this week.

Lamar Jackson – $7400  1.15x  $8400

I’m actually not crazy about the play other than to say that Lamar severely disappointed at high ownership numbers last week and is in position for a rebound here. I’m not writing up Joe Burrow – $6200  1.4x  $7200  either this week despite how much you know I love him, but know that in a gpp setting, I am fine with either of these QBs in this matchup.

Matthew Stafford – $7100  1.25x  $8100

The issue with the Rams this week is the likelihood that they curbstomp the Lions. That limits the ceiling for Stafford, but increases it for Rams RBs. However, don’t ignore the fact that this is a revenge game for both QBs who have probably had this matchup circled on the calendar for a while. This might be my favorite game stack of the week. Some combo of Stafford/Kupp/Henderson/Goff/Swift/Amon-Ra/Hockenson is totally in play for gpp.

Jalen Hurts – $6900  1.2x  $8300

You simply cannot watch this guy play football. Holy hell last Thursday night he somehow put up 26 DK points with 115 total passing yards. He looked terrible. However, that doesn’t make him a bad fantasy QB. Hurts’s rushing upside will keep in play every week. He has not had a week with lower than 21.8 points at all this season. If you play him and have high blood pressure, don’t watch the game.

Ryan Tannehill – $6400  1.4x  $7600

With the high point total, and the porous KC secondary, I’d say Tannehill is in play. I’m not crazy about the price because there’s always the potential of a Derrick Henry smash game, but there’s certainly a game script scenario where the Titans have to throw to keep up.

Tua Tagovailoa – $5500  1.55x  $7100

If you need to punt at QB, or are like me and have to start this guy in seasonal because Dak Prescott is off, Tua vs the Falcons makes a lot of sense. In his return to action last week vs the Jaguars, Tua put up over 300 yards and tossed a couple TDs for 25.4 DK points. Now I wouldn’t expect that again, but close to 20 is certainly achievable vs this Falcons squad. Not sure I’ll go here in cash, but the salary savings and upside make this a potential gpp winning play.

RB

Derrick Henry – $9200  1x  $11000

You got the $? Play him.

Aaron Jones – $7500  1.25x  $8500

The Packer offense is currently a funnel to two players, Jones and Adams. Jones’s touch/target share is pretty high, and if the Packers have a field day against WFT then Jones is likely to be part of the mix. Over the last 3 weeks, WFT has let the opposing RB1 (Williams, Kamara and Patterson) put up 23.9, 29.2, and 34.6 DK points. Jones should be able to achieve 20 here.

Darrell Henderson – $6600  1.3x  $8000

This pains me to my core. I have a real hard time trusting McVay when is comes to the RB position. That being said, this matchup is too good to ignore. Sony Michel didn’t practice Wednesday and got in limited practices on Thursday and Friday. I really wish he was just out cuz then it would be complete wheels up for Henderson. That being said, Henderson does appear to be RB1 and this a complete smash spot for any RB in the NFL at the moment.

Joe Mixon – $6500  1.35x  $7200

Baltimore just isn’t the same defense right now, and Mixon currently has no injury designation. He should be in for a decent workload and even saw an uptick in his involvement in the running game last week. He finally saw the endzone for the first time last week, and it’s quite possible that it happens again.

Cordarelle Patterson – $6300  1.6x  $8000

I just can’t ignore the output here. When Patterson is on the field, he touches the ball 37% of the time, which is a lot. He leads all RBs in fantasy points via receptions, leads in air yards, leads in yards per route, and he’s done it all with only 14 touches per game. It’s absurdly efficient actually. It’s also unsustainable. However, coming off the bye vs the Dolphins there is potential that he continues to smash. Projected ownership here is 3% – 5%. As a bonus, you can use him at WR (WHICH HE IS!!!!!!!!) on Fanduel.

Chuba Hubbard – $6100  1.65x  $7300

CMC is on IR and Hubbard is not priced high enough considering the role RB1 plays in this offense. Hubbard will play on every down. The GMen allow the 2nd most rushing yards, the 6th most TDs, and 5th most fantasy points to RBs.

D’Andre Swift – $6000  1.45x  $7100

The Lions are going to have to try and stay in this game somehow. This price is too short for someone who is averaging 18.2 DK points per game. Swift averages just shy of 11 handoffs per game, which isn’t great, but he averages 7 targets per game which is nice. Stafford and the Rams are going to score. If Goff and company want to go cry in a corner, then by all means go ahead. If they want to compete, they will make sure Swift is involved.

Darrel Williams – $5800  1.65x  $6700

Andy Reid offenses have almost always produced an RB1 who is top 10 in the NFL in fantasy points at the end of the season. The recent problem in KC, that has spanned a few seasons now, is that his RBs keep getting injured. Williams is fine to keep playing at this price. He is the RB1, gets the goal line carries, and is useful in the pass game. Don’t chase last week’s output, but 2.7x is likely, and useful if you’re not playing Mahomes and Kelce.

Damien Harris – $5700  1.4x  $6800

This is a good gpp play. The Jets are top 6 in giving up fantasy points per game and the most redzone touches to RBs. Harris has had a slew of tough matchups and got benched due to fumbling vs Houston. You can’t really trust NE RBs in cash, but the game script is perfect here for the Pats to just run it down the Jets throat. A 100 yard, 2 TD game is in play here. Is it guaranteed? No. Possible? Hell yes.

Devontae Booker – $5500  1.6x  $5800

Listen, I don’t want to do it. I’m getting a feeling that this guy will be in lineup trains this week and the Panthers have been good against every run game except the Cowboys thus far. With Saquon out, Booker is now RB1 in the Gmen offense. It honestly wouldn’t take much for Booker to get to 11 DK points. The dark red “1st” against the position might steer people (like me) away, and the possible high ownership solely based on price and role might steer me away as well. I’m just seeing and hearing a lot of chatter going towards this man. This is the game within the game.

JD McKissic – $5000  1.65x  $5700

Again, he is completely gamescript dependent, and we might see the necessary gamescript here as WFT will move to the hurry up and be playing from behind. I love the play on DK, not as much on the other two sites.

WR

Devonte Adams – $8900  1.1x  $9000

Adams only had 5 targets, 4 grabs and 89 yards last week against the Bears, which would have crippled your lineup if you used him at his price. That is still in play here as you likely need over 100 yards and a TD to have the play pay off. I think it can happen against WFT though since they are the second worst team in the league vs WRs. Adams lines up all over the formation and won’t have a dedicated corner guarding him. None of them (Fuller, St-Juste and Jackson) are doing all that well and posting up some pretty bad numbers. Green Bay will have the luxury of running Adams up against whomever they see fit.

Tyreek Hill – $8600  1.15x  $8500

See Mahomes, worst secondary in the league thing. Like Adams, though, a Hundo and a TD or 2 will be necessary here. A Mahomes/Hill/Kelce/Hardman/Williams/Henry/Brown/Tannehill combination is totally in play for gpps…mind the groupthink though, this will be a popular stack.

Cooper Kupp – $8400  1x  $8800

His performances have demanded consideration regardless of matchup. Teams keep beating the Lions via the RB position, but they are vulnerable against the pass as well. In this case Kupp gets CB Parker who hasn’t been good. This is probably a situation where Kupp isn’t needed as much though in order for the Rams to win, but he likely still gets in the endzone at least once, and gets his share of targets, which is 34%.

Deandre Hopkins – $7700  1.2x  $8000

I’m not hearing this guy talked up anywhere. Um…have we looked at who he is playing? The memory life of fantasy football is short, but DHop’s memory is not. The exodus out of Houston was not pretty, and DHop remembers. He is finding the endzone a minimum of 1 time. #Revenge

Name the movie!

Terry Mclaurin – $6900  1.4x  $7200

Not going into too much detail here. Not playing him in cash with CB Alexander in play. That being said, McLaurin has overcome tough coverage before…and if you stack Fraudgers in a gpp, which I am going to do, then running it back with a few if not multiple receiving options from WFT makes sense. Additionally, F1 disappointed last week in a smash spot, so his ownership numbers are likely low this week.

Mike Evans – $6500  1.35x  $7100

I originally had AB written up in this spot. CB Johnson is having a good season and quickly becoming one of the better CBs in the league. However, Tom likes the receivers with whom he is comfortable. Is Godwin in play here? Sure. But Evans only put up 4.7 last week and typically has big outings after a disappointing week. The last time that happened was week 2 when he put 24.5 DK points after a 5.4 showing the week before. As I said, Brady had receivers he trusts and two of them (AB and Gronk) are out this week. So we are clear…Godwin is in play, I’m just less likely to go there.

Ja’Marr Chase – $6200  1.35x  $7500

The Ravens defense simply is not been the defense it has been in years past. This is Burrow’s guy, and he might the biggest deep threat in the NFL right now. Somehow, Chase’s price went down this week. If you can fit him, you can play him.

Brandin Cooks – $6000  1.5x  $6500

Cooks has a 41% target share since Mills has taken over at QB. The Cardinals have some injuries in their secondary, which is already leaking points to perimeter WRs recently. Cooks should see close to 10 targets in this one as the game script is setting up perfectly for Houston to have to throw to try to stay in this game.

Sterling Shepard – $5600  1.55x  $6500

Shepard’s target share is absurd. Toney is out, Golladay is likely out and apparently sucks anyway. Barkley is dead. The Giants are top-10 in pass rate and should lean on Shepard here often. We just saw Cousins have a day against this defense, which I believe is overrated. Again, Shepard probably gets there with 7 or 8 catches alone. Now he is still Questionable, so don’t just start him and then wonder why, when you are halfway through apple picking, he isn’t accruing any points. He got in a limited practice and should play, but just tread lightly.

Amon-Ra St. Brown – $4100  1.9x  $5400

My friend Jimmy likes to refer to this guy as the Sun God.

I’m not crazy about the matchup, but Amon-Ra is too cheap. He’s averaging 7.7 targets and 6 catches over the last 3 weeks. No TDs btw. He is due in that department. 11 DK points is likely here, though he could be limited due to matchup. You have to pay down in some places and there are worse prices that don’t have someone with these averages. If you believe in this kind of shit, his birthday is on Sunday. Additionally he is from Anaheim, went to USC, and is traveling down there to play in front of many friends and family…on his birthday. This will the best or worst NFL game of his life.

Rashod Bateman – $3400  1.75x  $5300

Bateman was not great last week, but a deeper dive has produced some more insight. Bateman actually tied for the team lead in target share with 24% and ran nearly as many routes as Hollywood. The Ravens have not been running like they have been in years past…I assume their RB situation is part of that. Bateman predominantly lined up on the outside and will now go up against CB Apple who’s best years are behind him. As a punt, Bateman is in play again.

TE

Travis Kelce – $7600  1x  $8200

He’s questionable and has practiced in a limited capacity this week, but is good to go. He remains the biggest advantage at TE. After last week’s “disappointment” and dark red worst against the the position in this matchup, his ownership numbers might be lower here.

Mark Andrews – $6000 1.3x  $7500

Andrews is a staple in this offense, but you need a TD to make it work. Just remember that. Too expensive on FD compared to Kelce.

Mike Gesicki – $4700  1.6x  $6000

He is simply too cheap. It’s almost like Draftkings wants to steer you toward specific plays with their pricing. I am not chasing last week’s 22.5 DK performance, but I do think 13 points is in play. He could get there with 7 grabs, but a TD is likely needed here as well. This will be a popular play given the matchup vs the Falcons.

Hunter Henry – $4100  1.7x  $5700

A TD is likely as necessary for Henry who has caught one in each of the last 3 weeks. It’s unsustainable, but it’s also the Jets.

Zach Ertz – $3900  1.7x  $5300

I have a feeling this is going to be a very popular play in week 7. Is Ertz in a good situation with the Cardinals? Yes. Is he up against a team who is shit against the TE position? Yes. Has Ertz had enough time to learn the offense? Will the Cards need him in this matchup? Is he the TE he used to be? The answer to those questions is a hard “I’m not sure.” Like every other TE not named Kelce, he likely needs a TD. I actually think that is possible here. 1 6 yard TD gets it done here at this price. Welcome to the Cardinals, Zach! (But I think DHop gets the TDs this week).

Ricky Seals-Jones – $3700  1.85x  $5400

I just might do it. I still think Kelce is the biggest advantage at the position, but RSJ has stepped in seamlessly in the absence of Logan Thomas. Last week RSJ played 100% of the snaps. I do think the Packers put up points, which puts WFT in a position to have to throw. 10 DK points is totally possible here, but if Kelce were to score 2 TDs, you’re fucked. In cash I will likely have to go with RSJ or McKissic in cash.

DEF

Rams – $5000  $4900

5K is a lot to spend on a defense. Like last week they were priced up because of the matchup, but they are also priced up because of their 16 point DK performance last week. Don’t chase.

Tompa Bay – $4000  $4400

It’s Justin Fields, savvy?

Panthers – $3500  $4500

Do I think they are overrated? Yes. Are they also playing the injured and poorly coached Gmen? Yes.

Patriots – $3400  $4800

Last time they played Wilson this unit put up 19 DK points. Don’t expect that again, but north of 7 points is certainly in play here.

Cardinals – $3100  $5000

It’s the Texans, but wow what a price discrepancy! This likely leads me to believe the Cardinals will be chalky and trainy on DK.

I’d insert a comedic trainy gif here, but I don’t want to get cancelled in 5 years.

Titans – $2100  $3200

As soon as you think something is not possible in the NFL, it suddenIy is. Something just seems off with KC this year. I am not going here in cash, but this is a nice contrarian play considering how high owned this game will be on the offensive side of the ball. Mahomes and company are turning the ball over recently and there is potential weather here. Barring a Mahomes injury, there is zero chance the Titans keep KC from scoring, but a defensive TD isn’t out of the realm of possibilities. From a gpp perspective, if you are not playing anyone from KC, you could put this D in and stack another game.

Where I’m at in Cash Games:

On DK:

Mahomes or Hurts at QB

Kelce or RSJ at TE

The Sun God might be a savings lock, Cooks is a priority add as well

It’s Pats on D for me

SD Differences:

No reason to not just play Henry and Kelce

FD Differences:

Haven’t gotten here yet, but I assume I will have more building options.

Bonus GPP Direction:

QB – Rodgers/Tua and Stafford/Goff

RB – Harris

WR – DHop/Adams/Kupp/Sun God

TE – Gesicki makes sense to stack wiith Tua…Hockenson (gettin zero mentions anywhere I look) is in play too in gpp

DEF – If fading KC, play Titans