Welcome to Boris’ Week 7 DFS Breakdown! We’ve been gaining some momentum and can hopefully continue that into Week 7. As a reminder, feel free to join my Discord for the latest updates on Sunday morning and to ask any questions you might have.

Let’s get into it!

Week 7 GPP Ownership Report

*** As a quick reminder, for both you and myself, the below numbers are living. That means they have the ability to fluctuate between now and Sunday morning.***

Additionally, they are but a guide and not an exact science:

1. Josh Jacobs – 29.5
2. Cedee Lamb – 23.2
3. Austin Ekeler – 19.6
4. Kenneth Walker – 18.8
5. Saquon Barkley – 18.5
6. Joe Mixon – 17.8
7. Justin Herbert – 14.7
8. Tyler Lockett – 14.5
9. Derrick Henry – 13
10. Mike Evans – 12.6
11. Zeke Elliott – 12.5
12. Greg Dulcich – 12

Week 7 GPP Picks Ownership Thoughts

• If you’re starting your GPP lineups with Jacobs, Lamb, and Ekeler, don’t play GPPs.
• I am playing zero Greg Dulcich.
• I am playing zero Tyler Lockett.
• Kenneth Walker might not be owned enough.
• I will be surprised if Herbert actually ends up as the highest owned QB, but I do believe he will be highly owned.
• This week looks very RB focused,

Chalk Stacks

Detroit Lions @ Dallas Cowboys

Dak is back and faces one of the worst defenses in football. Many are flocking to the Dak stack (yes, I’m attempting the Dak rhyme)

with Cedee Lamb. Michael Gallup and Dalton Schultz are looking like they will be owned, but not overly so. The game total is 48 and the Boys are favored by 7. I have problems with this:

1. This is Dak’s first game back from injury, so expecting the world from him seems like a big ask from Dak.
2. The Boys offensive line is not fully healthy. This Dakking matters.
3. The Lions are coming off a bye, and these coaches have had two weeks to arrange better defensive schemes.
4. The Lions are also not good against the rush. Zeke is carrying ownership, but Tony Pollard is not.

If I’m attacking this situation, Tony Pollard is my preferred move. He plays 40% of the snaps, gets passing down work as well as goal line looks. I got him at around 4.5% ownership. Zeke, however, is in play as well, but he will be closer to 11% ownership.

What’s interesting here though is that the Detroit stack on the opposing side is carrying little ownership outside of D’Andre Swift (10%) and Amon-Ra (7.5%). Jared Goff and TJ “Hock Alarm” Hockenson aren’t owned.

Outside of Pollard, I’m likely to fade this game. With ownership coming in high on the Boys side, I have serious doubts that Dak and his pass attack end up as the optimal stack.

Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Chargers

Players like Austin Ekeler, Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, Tyler Lockett, Geno Smith, DK Metcalf, and Kenneth Walker are coming in with ownership this week. I’m mostly going to fade this game. The Chargers really seem to have a habit of playing down to their opponents, which doesn’t bode well for them covering their -7 spread. This game has the highest total on the slate, and as such, many are flocking to this spot.

That being said, Mike Williams’ ownership (7.5%) seems a little too small here.

Not going to lie, I like both backs here and am considering eating the chalk at RB. The Chargers are 4th worst against RBs while the Seahawks are 9th worst, but stacking this game is not the route I am going to go. When it comes to my Week 7 GPP Picks, I won’t be picking this game. If going with a Seattle WR, I’ll pick DK Metcalf over Tyler Lockett as Lockett should be higher owned.

Week 7 GPP Picks – My Stacks

Kansas City Chiefs @ San Francisco 49ers

I love when Patrick Mahomes is under owned on a Sunday slate. I got him at 7.5% ownership, which is the lowest amongst the high priced QBs. Dak, Brady, Herbert, Burrow, Lamar, and even Geno and Derek Carr are looking more highly owned. This is a mistake.

At first glance it appears that the 49ers defense is quite good, but a deeper dive tells us some reasons why this unit just gave up 28 points to Marcus Mariota and the Atlanta Falcons.

• CB Mosley is on IR
• DE Nick Bosa has groin injury
• DT Arik Armstead is OUT
• DE Samson Ebukam has an achilles issue
• DE Drake Jackson is dealing with a knee problem
•  S Jimmie Ward has a hand injury
• S Talanoa Hufanga has a concussion and likely won’t play
• CB Chavarius Ward has a groin injury and hasn’t been practicing

Bosa and Ward are probably going to play, but if you’re telling me that Mahomes is going to be only 7.5% owned in this situation, then I am extremely interested.

I have Kelce at about 6.5% ownership, and I will mix and match the Chiefs WRs in as well.

The Chiefs are not a particularly good defensive unit, so there could be some fireworks in this matchup. Players like Jeff Wilson (5% owned), Aiyuk (5%), and George Kittle (6%) are potential run backs here. Deebo is as well, but I have him around 11% ownership. Jimmy G is around 3%…I will have exposure in case he goes for 300 yards and 3 TDs. I’m curious as to how involved Christian McCaffery is going to be right out of the gate, but it does look like the trade will result in a much more volatile CMC ownership projection from site to site. He might not even play, so I will update everyone on this situation in the Discord on Sunday morning.

Houston Texans @ Las Vegas Raiders

When it comes to Week 7 GPP Picks, Josh Jacobs is a conundrum. He is looking like the most owned player on the slate, and that’s for good reason as pretty much every team has shown that they can run on the Texans. Jacobs has also been getting receiving work so that has an added benefit on DraftKings as well. The Texans are the worst team against RBs.

If you choose to play Jacobs, then make sure you get different in other areas of your GPP lineups. Players like Derek Carr and Davante Adams are garnering some ownership. Hunter Renfrow, Darren Waller and Mack Hollins are all Questionable, so be vigilant there.

The Raiders defense is a middling group at best. They are more susceptible to passing attacks than running games, so I have some interest in Brandin Cooks, Nico Collins and maybe even Brevin Jordan as the Raiders are particularly bad against TEs.

Week 7 GPP Picks – One Offs and Skinny Stacks

• Jonathan Taylor is looking like 6% owned amongst the top owned RBs. Let me say that again….consensus #1 overall pick Jonathan Taylor will be low owned this week. What’s that you say?
• The Titans are terrible against the pass though? Then why are Matt Ryan (2% ownership) and Michael Pittman (5%) coming in low owned against the team that’s 5th worst against QBs and 2nd worst vs WRs?
• Taylor Heinicke is starting for the Commanders, and F1 Terry McLaurin (4.9% ownership) has had great days with Heinicke in the past.
• I am struggling with ownership percentages on Brian Robinson, but teams have been leaning on the run vs Green Bay .
• Speaking of Green Bay, Allen Lazard (6.5% ownership) has yet to get the DFS respect he deserves.
• Additionally, the Packers backfield is too low owned considering their potential.
• Lamar Jackson is definitely on my radar again this week. While I think Andrews is in play as well, a potential 4.5% owned Rashad Bateman is of interest to me against a middle of the road Browns defense.
• Speaking of the Browns, they are the 3rd worst team vs RBs. JK Dobbins is looking OUT but Kenyan Drake might not have the backfield to himself.
• No one is talking Nick Chubb. Baltimore is a middle of the road defense against RBs. After getting away from their offensive strength against the Patriots, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Cleveland refocus on their rushing attack.
• Chris Godwin is still too cheap considering his role in this offense and his projected ownership (8.7%). The same goes for Leonard Fournette (11% owned).
• Since we’re talking Bucs, a decent Week 7 GPP Picks TE is Cade Otton, but I am expecting some ownership (8.5%).
• Kyle Pitts has all but been ostracized from the DFS community. I will be there when he goes for 100 and 2 TDs.
• Robert Woods should be higher owned than 5.3%.
• I’m still not opposed to a Tom Brady stack and will be double stacking him with Godwin and Otton. Evans, Gage and Fournette are on the table as well since this offense will come through at some point.

Bonus DFO Advice

I’m not sure how clear I made the SF v KC situation, but I am all the way in. Low owned Patrick Mahomes is a wet dream. I’m figuring about something like 75% of my exposure will be that game. I’ll have some Lamar and I may get cute with a Heinicke and a couple Brady builds, but my lineups will largely be around this game.

Good luck to all this weekend!

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