Hey all and welcome to the Week 17 GPP breakdown!

Here’s the link to the GridIron article for those who feel so inclined.

Sorry I did not have a recap article last week, holiday travel and all. I was much more pleased with my ownership projections, however, and I made some decent dollars. The window is closing on the opportunity to make a huge pay day so let’s get into it!

What they are Playing for – Teams

• Chiefs need to keep winning to secure a bye and home field through the playoffs.
• Jaguars make their lives easier if they beat the Texans, but they really need to win in Week 18 against the Titans.
• The Patriots and Dolphins will be fighting for their playoff lives in their matchup.
• The Jets, Titans, and Raiders all need wins and some help to keep their playoff hopes alive.
• Eagles need to keep winning to clinch the division and secure a bye and home field through the playoffs. Also, they own the Saints first round pick, beating them could net the Eagles a higher pick.
• Minnesota has clinched the division, but they may be motivated to secure a bye in the first round depending on whether or not the Eagles lose. The Vikings play after the Eagles, so keep an eye on that scenario.
• The Bucs, Giants, and Commanders all need wins.
• Seahawks are still in the hunt. They need a win and some help.

What they are Playing for – Players

• Christian Kirk has a contract that is heavily laden with incentives for receptions and yards. He makes $500,000 if he catches 80 passes, another at 90, and another at 100. He also makes $500,000 for reaching 1,000 yards receiving, another at 1,100 and yet another at 1,200. He currently has 76 grabs and 988 receiving yards.
• Justin Fields needs 196 rushing yards to break Lamar Jackson’s single-season record of 1,206. Fields has publicly stated that he has every intention of breaking it.
• Geno Smith has his $750,000 bonus go to $1 million if he gets over 4,000 passing yards. He currently has 3,886.
• Patrick Mahomes needs 758 more passing yards to break Peyton Manning’s single-season record of 5,477. He also gets $1.25 million if he wins the NFL MVP award this season.
• JuJu Smith-Schuster needs 23 yards to get a $500,000 bonus for topping 900 receiving yards this season.
• Justin Jefferson needs 209 receiving yards to break Calvin Johnson’s single-season record of 1,964.
• While probably a prayer, Kendrick Bourne gets $250,000 for 50 grabs and $250,000 for 700 receiving yards. He’s currently at 30 for 378.
• Marvin Jones gets $500,000 for 70 grabs. He’s at 38 though.

Week 17 GPP Ownership Report

1. Amon-Ra St. Brown – 21.2%
2. San Francisco 49ers – 20.1%
3. Christian McCaffrey – 19.6%
4. Greg Dortch – 17.1%
5. Travis Etienne – 16.9%
6. Justin Jefferson – 16.8%
7. D’Andre Swift – 15.1%
8. Brian Robinson – 14.7%
9. Saquon Barkley – 14.6%
10. Jared Goff – 14.1%
11. Garrett Wilson – 14%
12. Austin Ekeler – 13.7%
13. Evan Engram – 13.1%
14. James Conner – 11.9%
15. DJ Chark – 11.5%

Week 17 GPP Ownership Quick Takes

• I’m skeptical of many of these numbers and anticipate some movement Sunday morning. Join the Discord!
• Brian Robinson’s ownership continues to climb as people realize that Antonio Gibson is not going to play. I anticipate it will be even higher by kickoff.
• LOL Jared Goff as the highest owned QB.
• As usual, I expect CMC’s ownership to be less than this, though it may not be significant this week.
• I’m going to find it difficult to roster the 49ers.
• DHop may not suit up. That would inflate Dortch’s ownership. (I expect it to inflate anyway.)
• For those of you who play cash games, I imagine many builds will be Goff, Robinson, Dortch, Amon-Ra, 49ers. None of my Week 17 GPP lineups will have that chalky combo.

Week 17 GPP Chalk Stack

Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions

With 13 games on the Week 17 GPP slate, I am not so sure any one situation is going to be chalky when it comes to QBs. However, I do expect many DFS players to be eyeballing this game because of the week high 52 game total that it has. The ownership numbers suggest that most will stack Goff with some pass catchers, but I like Fields here for 3 reasons:

1. His ownership numbers are lower than Goff’s.
2. The Lions defense is atrocious.
3. Fields fully intends to break Lamar Jackson’s record, so he will be running in this one.

The tough part with Fields though is stacking him with any of his pass catchers because they are so porous and banged up. Mooney OUT, Claypool and St. Brown are Questionable. Dante Pettis is banged up as well. That makes it Velus Jones, Byron Pringle and N’Keal Harry SZN! None will be owned on Sunday. Cole Kmet could also be in play again.

I am also fine using Lions pass catchers here too. The team implied total for the Lions is a week high 29 points (tied with the Chiefs). It’s just a question of how much Lions chalk do I want to eat.

Other Week 17 GPP Stacks

Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers

I really like this game environment. With a 48.5 total, it is the second highest projected score of the week. Due to this matchup being in Green Bay though, I expect the players here to come in with some deflated ownership in Week 17 GPPs.

Kirk Cousins is the QB I’m eyeing here as Aaron Rodgers just hasn’t been playing well (cuz he’s bad). However, averaging 281.5 passing yards against per game, we just can’t ignore how bad the Vikings secondary is. We have to keep our eyes on Christian Watson’s availability as he got in a limited practice on Friday.

Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs

For so many reasons, beyond him just being a competitor, I expect a fully armed and operational Patrick Mahomes in Week 17 GPPs. The Chiefs implied team total is 29 points. The problem with the Chiefs though is who is going to be the beneficiary? Kelce is expensive, McKinnon is reliant on pass catching TDs, MVS relies on the long ball, JuJu Smith-Schuster could be a high volume guy, etc. I’m not sure I would double stack on a 13 game slate either.

As far as the Broncos go? How many times have we seen a team perform better the week after a coach firing? I’m not sure I have the stones to stack RW3 with his pass catchers, but running a Chiefs stack back with a Denver Bronco is something I am comfortable with in Week 17 GPPs.

Week 17 GPP One-Offs

• I know I mentioned Christian Kirk above, and he will be in my player pool. I would just temper expectations as he goes up against CB Stephen Nelson. In this last matchup Kirk was held to 1 catch for 11 yards. Kirk probably achieves his first bonus here by getting at least 4 catches and goes over 1,000 yards on the season, but I like him to earn more next week when the Jags face the Titans in a matchup that will likely still have playoff implications.
• Evan Engram has been the best TE over the last 6 weeks.
• Tyreek Hill is looking at sub 10% ownership, sign me up. Jaylen Waddle is in play as well.
• Davante Adams is also looking quite low owned compared to his skill set. If you’re Jarrett Stidham, who’s your security blanket?
• One of the Eagles pass catchers could easily make his way into an optimal lineup in Week 17 GPPs.
• Mike Evans hasn’t scored a TD in like forever. CBs C.J. Henderson and Keith Taylor are both allowing  70% or higher catch rate. Last time these teams faced off he had 15 targets for 9 grabs and 96 yards. This time a playoff spot is on the line.
• If Vita Vea plays for Tampa, I would temper expectations around the Panther RBs. I have no problem playing DJ Moore again though.

Thanks for checking out my Week 17 GPP breakdown. Good luck in your Week 17 GPP contests!

Follow me on Twitter at @Borisnow00 and follow my man Danny Carpenter too!

Again, join the free Discord! Updates will be posted there on Saturday morning!