Hey all and welcome to week 9 of the NFL season! Things have been going well for me in terms of identifying the right plays in the last few weeks, but small variances keep getting in the way. Taysom Hill, as he tends to do, pisses off my friend Sharkbait at least a few times a season, and last week Hill vultured 2 TDs from my Saints’ stacks.

Should you desire to read my ownership breakdown on Gridiron, click here. Onto the games!

Tampa Bay @ Houston

• Dameon Pierce is OUT. Devin Singletary has received double digit carries in the last 2 games and now has basically no one to compete with for touches. He’s only $4300, but I’m concerned he’ll be bad chalk as Tampa is a tough matchup.
• Nico Collins and Tank Dell will be highly owned on Sunday.
• The Texans are 10th in the league in terms of most passing yards allowed per game. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are soaking up 45% of the targets from Baker Mayfield.
• Rachaad White looks like he is going to be owned on Sunday. I’m not sure why. This isn’t a good matchup, though his receiving usage out of the backfield has been up.

LA Rams @ Green Bay

• Picking between Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua seems like it’s still going to be a headache most weeks. CB Jaire Alexander typically mans the perimeter whereas Kupp usually runs routes out of the slot.
• Matthew Stafford is dealing with a thumb injury and hasn’t been practicing. He’s a game time decision. I don’t have much faith in the Rams, nor does the betting market, if he doesn’t play.
• If the Packers don’t unleash Aaron Jones in this matchup, it’s a sign they are mailing it in for the season. The Vikings’ injuries have opened the door for the Packers to go on a run, Aaron Jones is how they get there.
• Romeo Doubs is the preferred short yardage option and gets frequent looks in the end zone, but Jordan Love’s overall play of late has left much to be desired.

Seattle @ Baltimore

• The betting market doesn’t have much faith in the Seahawks, but I think it’ll be a fairly close game as long as the Seahawks defense got on the plane to Maryland.
• The Seahawks can be thrown on (234.3 passing yards per game), but they are better against the run as they are allowing only 3.6 yards per carry.
• Zay Flowers remains too cheap on DraftKings and should be a featured weapon in this one.
• Mark Andrews has seen over a $1000 price increase in the last 2 weeks. His volume has decreased to the point where he is likely to be touchdown dependent in order to pay off the salary.
• Lamar Jackson looks to be carrying a little bit of ownership this Sunday. He might need to run a TD in AND have over 30 pass attempts to be the GPP winner.
• Tyler Lockett will be the higher owned of the Seattle WRs. This means I’m going to try to get to DK Metcalf whom no one will be playing. Baltimore’s defense hasn’t been dynamic, but they have been stingy.
• The Ravens are allowing 4.1 yards per carry, so Seattle should be attempting to get Kenneth Walker going here.

Chicago @ New Orleans

• It is entirely possible that the Bears offense is ineffective against this defense, but I can’t discount that over the last 3 weeks the Saints rank first in plays per game at 77 and the Bears are 9th at 65.7.
• Alvin Kamara’s price increase and DFS popularity are predicated upon his involvement in the passing game. He isn’t averaging much on the ground, so he’ll need the end zone or double digit targets to pay off his now $8100 salary.
• Going back to Rashid Shaheed feels a little like chasing, but it’s against zone coverage which is where Shaheed has his best outings. The Bears play zone coverage at the 9th highest rate in the NFL.
• The Bears invited everyone and their mother to have a carry out of the backfield last week. Picking an RB out of this group against a solid defense screams disappointment.
• Cole Kmet had 10 grabs on 10 targets last Sunday. He had a total of zero the week before that. Tyson Bagent played in both games. DJ Moore looks like the more consistent piece as he has had 6 and 9 targets in the 2 games Bagent has started.
• Justin Fields got in some practice time toward the end of the week, but it will likely be Bagent again on Sunday.

Arizona @ Cleveland

• Trey McBride was chalk a week ago, and he was good chalk. He isn’t good chalk this week with a new QB against a solid defense.
• Emari Demarcado will sit this one out. Things named Keaontay Ingram, Tony Jones, and Corey Clement are the ones who will be handed the rock against the Browns defense.

• Hollywood Brown is the player I would put money on to be the receiver that either Clayton Tune or Kyler Murray have to rely on in this matchup.
• Playing both Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt could be viable on Sunday. Hunt is probably the “safer” choice, but this backfield was split three ways last week as Pierre Strong was in the mix as well. That, however, was when Ford had an injury designation. He doesn’t have one for week 9.
• Deshaun Watson seems likely to play. In my personal opinion that’s because it’s an easy matchup. If this were the Cowboys, I doubt Watson’s shoulder would be feeling good enough to give it a go.

Washington @ New England

• With DeVante Parker and Kendrick Bourne out this Sunday, Demario Douglas, based on his usage, is in line for a role increase on Sunday. At 4K, he will be one of the more highly owned players on Sunday.
• Hunter Henry could be the beneficiary of Bourne’s absence. It’s a route I’m considering taking instead of playing the chalky Douglas.
• I like Rhamondre Stevenson to see some more work in the passing game as well.
• Curtis Samuel has incurred an foot injury, so Jamison Crowder looks poised to takeover his role. Crowder had 7 targets last week.
• Jahan Dotson has 18 targets in his last 2 games.
• The Pats aren’t all that great against TEs, which could be good for Logan Thomas, especially if Samuel misses.
• Belichick has a history of making life miserable for young QBs. Sam Howell will have a great day or an awful one…no in between.

Minnesota @ Atlanta

• Drake London is OUT as he is dealing with a groin injury. This SHOULD benefit Kyle Pitts, and vault him into receiver 1 status
• Don’t forget the presence of LEGENDARY TE ALL STAR Jonnu Smith though.
• There’s also a bunch of receivers you haven’t heard of in minute. KhaDarel Hodge, Van Jefferson, Scotty Miller, and Mack Hollins could get targets from Taylor Heinicke on Sunday.
• Bijan Robinson is gathering ownership this week. That makes a ton of sense to me, but we need to remember that at any moment Art Smith could decide that this a Cordarelle Patterson week.
• The Hock Alarm or Jordan Addison should emerge as the primary target for Jaren Hall. Addison received a minimal price hike since Cousins died. Hockenson is also decently priced at $5200.
• It’s going to be tough sledding for the Viking run game.

Indianapolis @ Carolina

• Josh Downs is Questionable for this game. It doesn’t really matter though as the Panthers are more vulnerable on the outside, which means Pittman and Pierce.
• It really looks like Jonathan Taylor SZN though. His role has been increasing since he has been back. $6400 is a CHEAP price to pay in this matchup. He could be the chalk of the weekend.
• DJ Chark should be able to play. The Colts are allowing 247.2 passing yards per game. If Chark sits, Jonathan Mingo would be in line for more targets.
• Adam Thielen has seen a significant price increase on DraftKings, he should continue to see his healthy share of targets.

NY Giants @ Las Vegas

• The Giants looks to be the highest owned defense this week. I remember my first time playing DFS too. However, I trust Aidan O’Connell about as far as I can throw him.
• Darren Waller is OUT. This hopefully means by boy Daniel Bellinger will see some more work.
• Daniel Jones should play in this one. Tommy DeVito is backing him up with Tyrod Taylor OUT.
• The Raiders are allowing 4.5 yards per carry and 140 rushing yards per game, good for 3rd worst in the league. Don’t sleep on Saquon.
• There’s a lot of love going Josh Jacobs’ and Davante Adams’ way in terms of ownership. The assumption is that the new coaches and play callers will rely on these 2 stars against the Giants. It makes sense, it’s what I would do if I had just been thrusted into the HC or OC role and had this matchup. Breece Hall was chalk last week because of this matchup with the Giants. New York did look better with stopping the run last week but still surrendered fantasy points in the passing game to the Jets RB.

Dallas @ Philadelphia

• At 46, this is the highest total on the slate. Most DFS enthusiasts will be full out stacking this game or trying to get a piece of it.
• Ceedee Lamb has 21 targets in his last 2 games, which has coincided with games of 7 catches for 117 yards and 12 catches for 158 yards and 2 TDs. On Sunday Lamb will be running many routes against Sydney Brown, a 3rd round rookie…who was drafted as a safety.
• Jake Ferguson looks like a fairly popular play. Like most TEs in this league, he’s TD dependent.
• For Tony Pollard to work out, he’ll likely need to be involved in the passing game against this stout run defense.
• AJ Brown has been on a tour de force, eclipsing 100 yards receiving in 6 straight weeks. The Cowboys are one of the best teams against the pass, but they will be tested in this game.
• DeVonta Smith woke up a little last week. Per usual, he’ll be significantly lower owned than Brown.
• The Boys can be vulnerable against the run, so it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Eagles rely on their ground game here. Swift should get the majority of the work, about 65 – 70% of snaps, while Gainwell will be second with roughly 30%. Boston Scott only destroys the Giants and Rashaad Penny’s career looks over.
• Jalen Hurts has been dealing with a knee issue. It’s not a huge problem, but it would be extremely dumb of the Eagles to have designed runs for Hurts this week. One yard TD and 4th and inches plunges are still in play, though.

• The Boys are middle of the road vs TEs, so I could see it being a good day for Dallas Goedert, but this also isn’t a matchup that screams to play him.

Thanks for reading! Follow me on the website formerly known as Twitter @Borisnow00. And join the Discord for updates on Sunday morning.