Boris’s DFS Week One Writeup

Happy weekend everyone. I know that Saturday may be a tough day for some, it certainly is a day I’ve been and continue to be affected by, but it also serves as a nice reminder about how lucky we are to get to watch football, and even bet on it. 

Don’t know about you, but I am stoked about Week One of the NFL season! It’s also week one of trying to figure out just how much Sunday football I can watch without upsetting the Mrs. My usual strategy is to go HAM with the husband and dad duties on Saturday and then hope for the best on Sunday…works fairly often.

I’m about to sauce a lot of information your way…it can get daunting. Please don’t hesitate to ask questions in the comments and I will do my best to get back to you.

One big ground rule before we get started:

INFORMATION WILL CHANGE. I will be putting this article up on Saturday, about 24 hours before the first game on Sunday. Information has, and will continue to come out that may or may not affect my choices. I will do my best to update this in the comments section, so be sure to stop back here prior to 1PM Eastern lock. I’ll give you a good example about what I am talking about. Two years ago the Bengals traveled to Miami late in the season. At the time the Dolphins were one of, if not the worst teams in football at stopping the run. Everyone and their mother knew this would be good for Joe Mixon. However, thanks to the Twitter machine and the beat writers I follow (https://twitter.com/i/lists/85358464?s=20) I and many others saw that Mixon was sauntering onto the field like a walker from Walking Dead. Reports were coming out that he contracted a sickness, possibly even food poisoning. It was clear he wasn’t going to play much, if at all. I made the necessary changes to my lineup and was able to successfully cash while many others still had Mixon in their lineup. The lesson: you have to pay attention in the hours leading up to kickoff. For money making purposes, I would argue that this is more important than watching the games. The same strategy applies to the late games as well. To use a current example, Austin Ekeler was in my writeup but is now out due to recent practice reports.

Couple other quick points:

1. Draftkings gives you a salary of $50K. For planning purposes you want to aim for your players to produce 2.6x of their own salary. This will get you to 130 fantasy points for your team, which most weeks is enough to cash. Sometimes it is not, so searching for players with more upside is necessary. Dal Cook, pictured above, costs $9100 this week. In order for him to “pay off,” he needs 23.6 fantasy points. So how does he get there? Assume 1 TD = 6 points. Now figure in 4 catches for 45 yards = 9.5 points. Now figure close to 100 yards rushing, let’s say 92 yards = 9.2 points for a total of 24.7 points. DK gives you a 3 point bonus for 100 yards btw. Anyway, if you think he scores 24.7 points, at a $9100 salary, that’s a good result for cash purposes. With the potential 3 point bonus, that’s 27.7 for anyone who failed arithmetic.
2. Don’t blow your load in week one. In my research I’m discovering many unclear situations about who is RB1 or TE1 or the predominant slot receiver. DK and SD pricing is likely the best it will be all year because of the unclear situations, so I will continue to dig to find out those things if info comes out over the weekend, but DK has the reputation of fixing their pricing quickly. In any event, you don’t want to go broke in your first hour in Vegas. 

Enough of that. Onto the players! Here are the ones, by position, that I am considering and why. I thought about going game by game, which I might do in the future, but with 13 games on the slate I thought that to be a little daunting. The numbers after the name are the Draftkings price, and the SuperDraft multiplier. Also, SD does not have a DST spot.

QB

Ideal Cash Game Output: 275 yds passing, 20 rush yards, 2 TDs (if one is running that’s better), assume 1 turnover = 20 DK points.

Kyler Murray – $7600  1.15x

If you can, I would highly advise going with a QB from an up-tempo offense who also runs. Kyler Murray was that exact QB for much of the season last year before he got hurt and didn’t run as much because running comes with more injury risk to QBs. Out of the QBs on this slate, he has the most rushing upside. If he rushes for 40 yards, that’s the DK equivalent of a passing TD.

Jalen Hurts – $6400  1.35x

The Eagles…are…not good. Their D is bad, so the likely game scripts for Jalen Hurts and the Eagles favor him greatly this year. In fact, from a gpp perspective, I like game-stacking this matchup. Ridley on one side, Hurts and a pass catcher or two on the other. Eagles will likely be behind most games. The way they will get back into games is throwing and allowing Hurts to run to pick up first downs…which will be easier if teams are playing Prevent defenses in later stages of games. He is my likely cash game QB this week as getting a minimum of 16.6 points (2.6x) is doable, and something like 25 or 30 is possible.

Trevor Lawrence – $6200  1.6x  – gpp only

Supposedly HC Urban Meyer and OC Darrell Bevell are designing RPOs (Run/Pass Options) for Lawrence, which should suit his skill set. Also, Meyer has been running spread offenses in recent years, which if he applies this to the NFL level, could be great for the likes of Chark, Jones, and Shenault (none of whom I listed in the WR section below, but all of whom are viable in a gpp…Shenault is my favorite). However, is that what they are going to do this weekend? I don’t know. Texans are vulnerable vs the pass, particularly in the middle of the field. I like the skill set of Lawrence, but I just don’t know if they take the training wheels off this week.

Tyrod Taylor – $5300  1.65x – gpp only

Same scenario as Jalen Hurts. Texans will likely be behind and Tyrod will be forced into a hurry-up offense, which he has been successful at in the past. GPP only because what I have heard is that the Texans will be a run first team; bringing in Lindsay and Ingram when they already have Johnson proves that for me. I do not expect this team to be any good, but points still get scored. I will say that Brandin Cooks is going severely overlooked in seasonal. DHop, gone. Fuller, gone. Someone has to catch passes. I prefer Tyrod on SD.

Jameis Winston – $5200  1.45x

When DK released their pricing for week one on August 10, the Saints starting QB job was up in the air, which is why both Winston and Hill have the same price. I’m surprised Winston won the job even though I think it’s the right decision for Payton and the Saints. HC Sean Payton has a history of shooting himself in the foot with gimmick plays, so I would still expect Taysom Hill to see snaps at QB. That being said, Winston is the better thrower and more like a Drew Brees, so since this offense was built around Brees, Winston seems like the better choice. Now I know Winston had a bazillion INTs two years ago as starter for the Bucs, he was my seasonal QB that year and the direct source of a Sunday afternoon stiff drink or two. However, Winston had lasik surgery cuz his eyesight was so bad, so I anticipate that will fix part of his issues. Don’t get me wrong, he’s still going to toss a few INTs, but if this name read Drew Brees with a price tag of $5200, everyone would own him. Additionally, he has looked real good in camp. WARNING: Sean Payton likes to crush your dreams. Yes, yours.

Sam Darnold – $5000  1.6x   gpp only

I mean…if a team drafted you high and then gave up on you after a couple of years because the real problem was your sucky coaching and personnel, wouldn’t you want revenge? Revenge game narratives are nice and all, but if you scroll down, you’ll find that I like the Panthers WRs, I’m just not sure which one. The Jets secondary is rolling out a 5th round pick and an undrafted rookie against the Panthers wideouts. Don’t put CMC and Darnold in a cash game lineup. Do put them in a gpp lineup.

Mac Jones – $4400  1.7x

Sometimes the good thing about DK releasing their salaries so early is that players who were perceived as backups have since been named starters. Mac Jones is priced like a backup, yet is now the starter on a team that has built itself around a traditional pocket passer like him. It’s why I believe Cam is gone. Now I don’t expect a lot out of Jones, maybe 250 yards and a score, which would be 14 DK points and 3x his salary. He isn’t my ideal pick in a cash game as he doesn’t run much, he might get 10 or 20 yards, but if you want to do something like squeeze in 2 of CMC, Cook and Kelce…or maybe even all three on DK, then you’ll have to find savings somewhere.

RB

CMC – $9500  1x

The price is high and there is no multiplier on SD. However, this is potentially the cheapest McCaffery will be all year. He is the focal point of the Panthers offense, catches passes (worth 1 point for every reception on DK and .5 points on SD), plays all three downs, and works the goaline. He is likely to score at least once in this game. I have the Jets ranked as the 25th best defense in the league. 

Dalvin Cook – $9100  1.05x 

The Bengals have been and will continue to be bad against the run…especially against teams who make it their absolute goal to be able to run the ball. Enter the Vikings. Head coach Mike Zimmer typically doesn’t get his hands dirty with the offensive side of the ball, but he demands that his teams be able to run. Rick Dennison, long time offensive line coach has really helped to establish a solid run blocking offensive line over the last couple of years. The problem? Apparently Dennison had a hissy fit in July, refused to get a COVID vaccine, and was fired. Days later he was rehired as “senior offensive advisor.” This was after he was passed over for the Offensive Coordinator position which went to Klint Kubiak, son of the very successful Gary Kubiak. #nepotism. So what does this mean for Cook? I think it means nothing, but is worth monitoring. This is an absolute smash spot for Cook. If for some reason the Vikings cannot run the ball against this defense, then everyone who drafted Cook #2 overall is in for a long season. BTW…if you drafted Cook and don’t have Mattison as a handcuff, drop what you’re doing and fix that now.

Alvin Kamara – $8600  1.15x

Umm…I’m literally writing this now when I found out about Lat Murray getting cut, so…(checks Saints Depth Chart) what’s a Tony Jones? Apparently he’s the handcuff for Kamara now. I actually think Winston being the QB is better for Kamara. Taysom Hill is a vulture, specifically a Kamara vulture, as was Murray. Hill? No longer the starter. Murray? He gone. I already didn’t see a scenario where Kamara wasn’t going to be highly involved in this offense, and now his two biggest competitors for touches are either gone or not starting. Same as CMC, not sure he will be this cheap again. WARNING: Taysom Hill could still vulture a TD.

James Robinson – $6400  1.35x (cash or gpp play???)

Travis Etienne’s presence was a problem for Robinson, but not anymore now that Etienne is injured. The Texans are a dumpster fire right now, but Defensive Coordinator Lovie Smith doesn’t suck. That being said, he has his work cut out for him, and James Robinson is in for a huge workload here. I’m a little hesitant here though because it isn’t clear what Urban Meyer is going to do. He typically runs a spread offense with multiple WR sets and the Texans true weakness this year will be against the pass. However, Meyer ran a run heavy attack back when he had Zeke Elliot on his collegiate team and OC Bevell historically employs a run heavy attack. My gut says this is how they will approach week one vs the Texans, but I can’t say for sure, hence I am hesitant to go here in cash games. I think my entire approach to this weekend may hinge on my decision to play Robinson or not.

Raheem Mostert – $5800   1.4x

The 49ers have one of the best running attacks in the NFL, they just can’t keep RBs healthy. Mostert, as a talent, is friggin awesome. He also may or may not be Mr. Glass. Regardless, Lions are not a good defense. Something like 70 total yards and a TD gets us to 14 points, which is the goal. He also has the ability to go for over 100 total yards, have a couple catches, and multiple scores. I know folks are big on Sermon, but as of this writing, he is not the starter. I honestly think Mostert is going to town this weekend. That’s where he was headed last year in week one vs the Jets before MetLife claimed him. He will be in my cash game lineup (as he was last year in week one when I cashed) as either one of my RBs or as a 3rd RB in the FLEX.

Damien Harris – $5200 1.55x

If you like the Pats D, which I do, it would make sense from a Patriots perspective to pound the run game against Miami. With no Cam Newton to steal goal line touches, I do not expect the Pats coaches to tell Mac Jones to win this game for them. I think they tell that to their offensive lineman and have an RB or multiple get there for them. Harris fits the bill here. Oftentimes the Pats RB stable can get murky, and picking out which one will have a good week can be tough. However, Michel? He gone. Cam? He gone. Sir Rexington Burkhead? He gone. There really is no competition for touches here beyond James White at the moment.

Javonte Williams – $4000  2x   

This one comes with a little bit of risk, but hey that’s the game. The Broncos drafted Williams with the 3rd pick in the 2nd round, and by all accounts he has had a very good camp and preseason. Williams is familiar with zone running which is the scheme OC Pat Shurmur employs. This is not good news for power runner Melvin Gordon. Additionally, Williams was held out of the Broncos last preseason whereas Gordon was not. My thoughts? Williams is actually the lead back in this backfield. We won’t know for sure until Sunday, but Williams should get involved here. The matchup is tough, but it shouldn’t take much for Williams to reach value, and we have to save salary somewhere. Hey is a capable pass catcher, so he doesn’t need to hit value just by rushing. Again though, this is high risk, which is typically something to be avoided in cash games. That SD multiplier sure looks sweet if I’m right though.

WR

A note about WR: getting these three right, is probably the toughest week to week challenge I encounter.

Ideal Cash Game Output: 50 points from all 3. Try not to rely on TDs because they are extremely hard to predict. Instead rely on receptions (especially on DK) and yardage. 

Tyreek Hill – $8200  1.05x

Calvin Ridley – $7900  1.15x

DHop  $7800 – 1.1x

Justin Jefferson – $7700  1.2x

These are 4 of the top 5 priced WRs. I’m not on Adams because of Lattimore, who hasn’t been as good as in past years, but still may limit Adams’ ceiling. Hopkins and Jefferson have good matchups against their secondary counterparts (Hopkins especially), Tyfreek got after it in his last matchup against the Browns secondary and is always a threat for a 100 yard receiving game but CB Ward is legit IMO, and Ridley is WR1 in a pass first offense against a crap D. Basically I’m saying that any of these 4 are viable…I just am not sure I can get to any on DK because I want to pay up elsewhere. I will say…DO NOT STACK IN CASH GAMES. If you’re running Dal Cook out there, don’t play Jefferson too. If you’re going Kelce, don’t go Hill too. You can do a Kyler Murray with a DHop, your risk increases a little bit but at least correlation is there. However, in GPPs, stack away, baby. Put Cousins with Jefferson or Thielen or Cook and run Boyd, Higgins or Chase on the other side; go Mahomes with Hill/Kelce/Hardman/Robinson and Landry or Chubb or some other Brown on the other. I personally like Hurts with a pass catcher or two (noted below) and Ridley on the other side for gpps. In cash I’m not going Hill cuz I want Kelce, and I’m not going Jefferson cuz I want to run Cook out there, so if I had to pick I’d go Ridley vs bad Eagles and DHop vs journeymen and rookie CBs.

*** For the record, in gpps I will have Murray and DHop with Henry and/or other Titans***

DK Metcalf – $7500  1.3x

There is no way I’m getting to him on DK, but he might be in my lineup on SD. Dude’s a freak and an integral part of the Seattle offense. Xavier Rhodes is out for Indy so the CB matchups he will receive aren’t tough. I don’t expect the Seattle offense to be taking as many deep shots as it did last year, but this guy could have 3 catches and hit value. I also don’t have a problem with Tyler Lockett, but it will be tough for me to get there.

Keenan Allen – $6900  1.15x

He is way underpriced on DK, so I prefer him there, but SD is still nice. Allen averaged 10.5 targets per game last year, and he left one of those games early. If Herbert is under duress from WFT’s impressive line, that’s dump offs and short routes to Allen and Ekeler. CB William Jackson’s addition to this WFT defense will cause problems, but Allen moves around the formation enough to avoid him some of the time. With Ekeler being iffy to play Sunday, I like this route even more.

DJ Moore – $6100 1.4x / Robbie Anderson $5700 1.45x / Terrace Marshall $3000  2x

All are gpp prefered, Marshall is my favorite

I feel Moore never gets much respect. So this is my dilemma…CMC or a wideout this week? CMC is gonna get his, but the Jets are rolling out a 5th round pick (Brandin Echols) as one of their 2 primary CBs….I mean…as a coach wouldn’t you attack this spot? The only thing is there will be mixes and matches here. Echols will be at times against each of these guys. Someone’s having a day here. For what it’s worth, I have Marshall in every dynasty league I’m in (which is 2 lol). Additionally, undrafted rookie Javelin Guidry gets one of these three too. To quote a friend of mine who recently photoshopped a picture of me of a Tombstone poster, “a pounding is coming.”

Tyler Boyd – $5200 1.45x  / Ja’Marr Chase $4800  1.5x / Tee Higgins $4700 1.55x

If you think that the Vikings curbstomp the Bengals, which I do, then it makes sense that they throw late to keep up. Let’s be clear…the Bungals suck. If you’re a Cincy fan, I’m not even going to apologize, just know I will never trust you. The question is though, which Bungals receiver will be in line for extra receptions late in the game? The answer is I don’t know, but I do think it will be someone. Higgins is my favorite simply cuz he is lowest priced and likely the least owned option. The Vikings secondary can be had, but I know the Vikings coaching staff was not pleased with their defensive output last season, and I’m sure HC Zimmer has made it a priority in the offseason; he has a track record of doing so.

Corey Davis – $4900  1.5x

All reports suggest that Davis and Wilson have some solid chemistry coming out of preseason and camp. He is the Jets WR1 under a new set of competent coaches and won’t have to deal with Bouye this week since he is suspended. I’m enticed by this price for Davis and might even be interested in rookie Elijah Moore – $3000  1.75x if Crowder (Covid protocol) is out.

Devonta Smith – $4500  1.55x / Jaelon Reagor $3700  1.85x

Smith was known for big plays whilst at Bama. Last season the Falcons ranked 3rd in highest percentage of 15 yard passes allowed. Now I expect that to be addressed under DC Dean Pees, but CBs Moreau and Terrell are not good. I’m not big on Smith for seasonal, nor for him to last very long without an injury…but this is not a tough matchup for Smith. On the Reagor train, he’s likely to be going up against rookie Terrell who is simply not as fast as Reagor. Isaiah Oliver is also on the Falcons, and I’ve been picking on him for years. Also, if you’ve been paying attention, I think Philly will have to throw to stay in this game.

Michael Pittman Jr. – $4100  1.85x

This is guy is really good at football and his WR1 now. I know people aren’t crazy about Wentz, but Wentz is now playing behind the best offensive line he has ever been with. Seattle’s secondary is not good. In fact, I heard some intel that S Jamal Adams will be doing slot coverage this weekend, that could be good news for Paris Campbell. Indy will be a run first team, but if Seattle can put up points and get the lead, it will be throwing time. Also, I need savings at the WR position and at $4100, 4 catches might be enough to do it.

Marquez Callaway – $3400  1.85x

I think this guy is going to be pretty popular on Sunday. He is the de facto WR1 for the Saints with Michael Thomas, and you just don’t find WR1s for $3400 very often. Popular plays are considered to be something called “chalk,” and the decision to make here is whether or not I want to eat it. I don’t particularly want to eat chalk when it is covered by CB Jaire Alexander, but again, savings need to be found somewhere.

TE

Travis Kelce – $8300  1x

In cash games on SuperDraft, just play Kelce. He was the #2 TE last year EVERY WEEK BUT TWO on that site. Every week some rando would have a day and finish first, but Kelce almost always came in #2 even with a 1x multiplier. On Draftkings he has historically been criminally underpriced, but it looks like they might be getting wise to him as his price is no longer in the 7K range. If he was listed as a WR (btw he is a WR), then he would be priced in the 9K range. If you can fit him in, it’s probably the right move, he’s the DFS TE version of the Konami Code.

Dallas Goedert – $4800  1.4x / Zach Ertz $3800  1.6x

I don’t think I’m going this route in cash, only because of the presence of Zach Ertz. I find the Eagles coaching staff tough to understand and because of that, I can’t say for sure that Goedert is now TE1 for this team. Why is Ertz still there? I heard he was getting traded, then I heard he was getting cut, but here he is. Falcons can be had by TEs, so the matchup is nice, but again I’m just not sure. What I will say is that Ertz is worth an add on your seasonal team right now; we’ll have a better sense of this situation after week one. If Ertz is back to being TE1 here, then you’ll have to pay for him after Sunday.

Robert Tonyan – $4200  1.45x

Love the price here. Based on how Tonyan was used last year, I think he’s close to a lock for 10DK points. NO has some question marks in their secondary, and Lattimore will likely be dealing with Adams all day. Something like 5 grabs and 50 yards for Tonyan is attainable here. It’s exactly what he did in this matchup last year.

Anthony Firkser – $3200  2x gpp only

If this was Jonnu Smith’s name at these prices, he would be a lock in my lineups. Well, Firkser is now potentially the TE1 for this team. Swaim and Pruitt are there and will likely get their work too, but Firsker is very familiar with the offense that new OC Todd Downing wants to run. Downing served as the Titans TE for the last two years and will employ a similar offense to what Arthur Smith did; Smith just departed to be the Falcons new HC. At this price though, we wouldn’t need much in cash games, 3 or 4 catches ought to do it. What’s holding me back though is I’m not sure he will ascend to the primary TE role or keep his previous one as either of the other two take over for Jonnu.

DST

New England Patriots – $3900

Last year the Patriots had several players opt out due to COVID. They are back now, including LB Dont’a Hightower. I’m expecting a better season out of what is typically a decent defense and a date with Tua sounds like a good place to start. With a 45.5 total, Vegas thinks this game will be low scoring, and I agree. 

New York Giants – $3800 

I’m actually big on the Broncos this year and pretty much have Javonte Williams and Courtland Sutton on every one of my fantasy teams, but I’m not on them this week. The total for this game is 42.5, Pat Graham was able to turn this defense into one of the best in the league at the end of last year, and they have one of the best CBs in the league in Bradberry. I don’t expect Bridgewater to throw all over them.

Denver Broncos – $3300

I like the DST on the other side of this game too. The Gmen allowed 50 sacks last season (tied 2nd most), are ranked dead last in pass blocking going into the season, finished tied for 11th in turnovers, and the Broncos have Von Miller back. The Broncos defense had a 26.2% pressure rate in 2020, which was the seventh highest in the league, and could make things difficult for the Gmen’s offensive line, which isn’t good. Saquon being back does give me a little pause, but I really think it would be unwise to give him 20 – 25 touches his first game off major surgery and has been limited in practice all week. I also don’t expect him to make that much of a difference in this matchup anyway. The Broncos also have a very versatile secondary with guys like Fuller, Surtain, Simmons and Darby who can jump in and out of Cover-2 schemes which is a challenge to dissect for any opposing QB. Could be a real tough day for Danny Pennies.

WFT – $3200

I have this Defense everywhere in seasonal. They are good. Tough opponent this week, so I’m out on them here, but figured I’d mention them now because I plan on going here often during the season, especially if they stay at this price.

I do not believe, nor do I think it is wise to give away my entire lineup….but…here’s a look at what I am doing in cash games on DK:

I’m starting on DST and locking in the Broncos. 

Raheem Mostert will be in my lineup somewhere.

Preferred High Priced RB – Cook

Biggest decision: James Robinson

Preferred High Priced WR – DHop

QB I want: Murray

QB I am likely going with: Hurts

Need to find a way to get in: Kelce

Biggest gamble I’m contemplating taking: Javonte Williams

Bonus favorite gpp move: game-stacking Eagles vs Falcons

Last thought: I am playing, AT MOST, 20% of my bankroll. I will remind you not to do something stupid like bet your mortgage this weekend. Also, please don’t chirp me on Sunday night or Monday if things don’t work out; they call it Monday Morning Quarterback for a reason. Chirp me on Saturday or Sunday morning, otherwise please feel free to offer constructive feedback. Either way…as Sharkbait has told us in his Cocktail of the Week, “Don’t Give Up the Ship.” Have some of his stuff on hand to either celebrate your winnings or drown your sorrows if someone tears an ACL in the first quarter. Either way, please enjoy watching a pastime I feel we often take for granted.

If things don’t work out this week, please know that I will spend more time next week patching up any holes on the ship.

I have enjoyed reading the posts in the community and absolutely love the opportunity to contribute. Thanks for reading!