My lineups across 3 sites:
DK Lamar Booker Zeke Renfrow Cooks Hollywood Arnold Allen 49ers |
SD Lamar Ekeler Patterson Hollywood Thielen Renfrow Kelce Moore |
FD Allen Booker Zeke Renfrow Allen Cooks Arnold Hill 49ers |
I cashed on DK and SD. Fuck Fanduel. Honestly I don’t know why I play on that site…never really works out for me.
The Curse?
I did tell the Bills and Bills’s fans to beware of the #ManningCastCurse. I considered Allen on DK and SD but ultimately was able to avoid that pitfall.
The Good
OT games when your QB is involved is so choice.
Lamar was everything I needed him to be and then some. The game script worked out perfectly too as the Vikings jumped out to an early lead. Interestingly though, Lamar was over 50% owned in cash games. I was shocked at first, and I wonder if the majority of those people landed on him for the same reasons I did….my guess is that they didn’t. Lamar is always a dual threat with his rushing ability, and the price was nice (expect an increase for week 10, but the Baltimore game’s on Thursday), but what solidified my decision to go to him was his likely success through the air in this matchup.
Herbert was one of the best QBs of the week and dissected Philly’s cover 2 and 6 as predicted.
Overall, it was not a good week for me at QB, but Teddy was one of the good ones in what was a surprise game for sure.
Kamara was okay, though his ceiling was limited in this matchup, and therefore not a cash option.
Patterson continues to be an odd weapon of choice for the Falcons, but as long as the price is right (or the multiplier), he is in play. As a reminder though, this “running back” had 10 rush yards.
I was initially going with Mitchell at RB, but I read reports that he would only go as long as he could due to injury, so I pivoted to Booker and it worked out real well. It could have been a little better though as Booker was over 100 yards rushing before he got stopped for a loss that knocked him back to 99 yards. He also then left the game with an injury.
Mitchell, however, did put up over 2x his salary, which is usable in cash games, but ultimately the right call was made here.
WR was not great for me this week either, but somehow I landed on the 4 I wrote about who did what they should have. Cooks, Hollywood, Renfrow and Allen got the targets and volume necessary. Hollywood did need OT to eclipse 100 yards, and Cooks did not put up what I thought he would, but it ended up being the right build this week.
The Bills receivers weren’t totally poor, but the lack of TDs from the offense limited all their ceilings.
Fading Sutton was the right move as Patrick and Jeudy were the focal point of the Bronco passing attack.
17.8 points out of Kelce is what the doctor ordered, but man does this offense looks broken. I’m not sure it can sustain good outings out of both Kelce and Hill in the same game.
Dan Arnold brought back 10 DK points which is close to 3x ROI, no complaints at all.
Okwuegbunam was indeed the cash game chalk at the TE position. I had a hard time eating Okwuegbunam chalk. He put up a little over 6 points, but I’ll gladly take the 10 from Arnold instead.
The Pats and Panthers D were both serviceable.
The Bad
Holy hell, rereading my article I feel there was a lot of it. My apologies. I simply chose the right spots this week.
Let’s start with all things Cowboys. I love when my banner image is a total fail. I need to do some digging here as I thought the health of the Boys O-line with the departure of Von Miller and CB Callahan would be good for all involved. It actually wasn’t a total loss as Zeke still put up double digit DK points even though he left the game with an injury for awhile but came back.
Just blame the Bills loss on the Mannings. Bills are certainly looking like they are willing to play down to their opponents.
Something is seriously wrong with Mahomes and the Kansas City offense.
Old Man Tyrod was pretty useless despite his record against the Dolphins from 2017.
Jordan Love looked like a rookie. I didn’t use him much, so this play didn’t really hurt. I only used Adams in gpp lineups with Love.
I didn’t use a whole lot of Ekeler as I thought it would be a mostly Herbert passing week. That being said, I did expect a better day out of Ekeler.
Darrell Williams put up 10.7 DK points which is short of the line to gain, but I’m perfectly comfortable with his role in this offense…I’m just not comfortable with this offense right now.
Hill didn’t succeed because it was a Kelce game. As stated earlier, this offense is currently not capable of sustaining both in a single game environment.
Deebo is so priced up that even when he has a 5 catch, 63 yard game, it simply isn’t enough.
It took a last minute TD for Thielen to have any sort of production; the Vikings simply didn’t look his way this week.
The Hobbs effect was is in, well, full effect on Toney this week. I was real close to using Toney in cash, but he had a difficult matchup and is injury prone, so I avoided it.
I’m not sure if we learned anything about how the Raiders will attack with the deep ball, or if they will. Edwards had zero catches, and Jones had one.
I dialed Gesicki back after learning that Tua was out. Gesicki was okay, but I got the same production from someone $1500 cheaper.
I made a silly assumption this week, and I got away with it. I knew it was likely that Kyler and DHop wouldn’t play, and therefore just assumed it would be a good day for the Niners against Colt McCoy.
The Misses
Just before the 4 o’clock games kicked off, a friend of mine…let’s call her Liz, asked me if she should use Conner or Mitchell. I told her Mitchell even though I wasn’t fully confident in him playing a full complement of snaps. Good thing she didn’t listen to me. I did say I was using the 49er defense all over the place, so why would I be interested in Conner? Also, he splits time with Edmonds. Well, Edmonds left with an injury early in the game and the Cardinals leaned on Conner to the tune of 40 fantasy points. If you wanted to win a gpp this week, you needed to have Conner. He was owned in less than 1% of lineups.
I friggin hate the Browns. Hate em! I didn’t write up Chubb, even though I did like the Cleveland ground game this week. Their o line is one of the best in the league and the Bengals are vulnerable on the ground. Why didn’t I write him up then? Because the Browns cannot be trusted! Any time this year when Chubb has been in a great spot, Cleveland has found a way to fuck it up. I’m not convinced they’ll use him correctly going forward. Chubb basically let his talents do the talking here, and he’s the one who didn’t let the Browns mess it up. Chubb had a 70 yard TD in the 3rd quarter. I have zero faith that that particular drive would have featured a well utilized Chubb had it been a normal drive that took something like 10 plays to get down the field.
Fuck Matt Ryan. This Saints/Falcons game was on my Redzone feed way too much yesterday.
Joe Mixon found the endzone twice. TDs are hard to predict, and without them, Mixon would likely have ended with under 15 points.
I find it difficult to trust the Eagles passing attack, therefore I was not on DeVonta Smith.
Kittle was the highest scoring TE of the week. I am big on coaching schemes, and the SF is one that employs a healthy use of the TE position. That’s why Dwelley sometimes finds success with Kittle out of the lineup. That being said, yesterday we were reminded that, when healthy, Kittle is one of the best TEs in the league.
A Parting Thought
This morning I’m hearing many a DFS pundit claim that week 9 was an “off week,” or a “terrible week.” Well, I made a good chunk of change yesterday, and I attribute that to doing my own research and writing my own column. Will it work every week? No. However, the rewards are way sweeter when you commit to your own process. A huge shoutout to everyone here at DFO who reads these. Thanks for giving me the space to write!
From Colt McCoy’s Wikipedia (regarding his rookie season). Show me a more #ThePauls paragraph:
While way too scared and cheap to bet DFS, i do love these. And I’ve finally figured out what chalk means. I’m sure it was in the first write up, but that was, like, 27 weeks ago, so nawt going to remember.
And I do look at these for help with whole to sit and start for my season long leagues. It’s helped me more than a few times.
Me too. I’m in the exact same boat.
All good, but I wouldn’t ever advise not starting someone you drafted in the first couple rounds.
My lineup on DK only had a few things in common with yours, but like I said last night, I read your Saturday column front to back every week and it’s paid off to the tune of about $650 in winnings in the last month alone. I’m not that good at this.