After my first article or so this year, I got a question about the difficulty level increasing, at least in cash games, as the season goes on. It does indeed increase because the DFS sites, especially DraftKings, make pricing much more difficult. So what players are forced to do is try to find value at certain positions. Since getting the likes of high priced players into your lineup is appealing, players will attach themselves to lower priced options based on their new roles. We saw this last week with D’Ernest Johnson and Mark Ingram for sure. This week you can expect players like Cam Newton, perhaps Ingram again, Jeff Wilson, Dan Arnold, and WFT to carry ownership, based on their price, for that very reason.

What I typically do, or at least should do, is play less cash and more GPP this time of year. The hope is that I have spent the first few weeks accruing a nice bankroll through cash games that I can then diversify in GPP contests. Well, unlike last year that hasn’t happened for me as it’s been a bit of a rollercoaster through the first 10 weeks.

In any event, for those who have had success…don’t be in a hurry to give all your winnings back. If I come across a particular play that I think will really be unique, I will tell you…but plan for many to continue to think the same when it comes to cash games.

On to the players!

QB

Josh Allen – $8100  1.05x  $8800

I’m not going here in cash but on any given Sunday Josh Allen can be found in a GPP winning lineup.

The Colts can be hit or miss on defense, but two weeks ago they gave up 317 yards to something named Josh Johnson.

Patrick Mahomes – $7600  1x  $8300

This QB and the one listed below will be popular plays based on the high over/under in their matchup and because they are cheaper than the likes of Allen, Lamar and Kyler, at least on DK. For some odd reason, the Raiders elected not to try Cover 2 vs Mahomes and the Chiefs last Sunday night. The Chiefs had been struggling in recent weeks. The common theme vs their opponents? Cover 2. For what it’s worth, the Boys run Cover 2 about 15% of the time.

Dak Prescott – $7200  1.1x  $8400

The Chiefs defense isn’t all that great and the Boys throw a lot. Cowboys and Chiefs stacks will be popular builds in GPPs on Sunday….as will stacking this game as a whole.

Karen Fraudgers – $7000  1.25x  $7700

Whenever Fraudgers is going to be low owned, I have interest. The Vikings stifled Herbert and the Chargers last week and Green Bay didn’t need to throw all over Seattle because their offense didn’t show up. The perception is that the Green Bay passing attack will not be needed as the Packers limit Minnesota and pound them with their new explosive weapon AJ Dillon. Now what if the Vikings take the run game away and are able to put up points on Green Bay? Fraudgers takes to the air is what happens. GPP only.

Joe Burrow – $6600  1.3x  $7400

I’m not really sure how Burrow is priced lower than Cam Newton on Fanduel but whatever. Burrow and the Bengals are coming off the bye and get a matchup with the Raiders who just let Mahomes torch them for 406 yards and 5 TDs. Granted, Burrow is not Mahomes, but Joe should find success here.

Cam Newton – $5100  1.45x  $7500

This one has everything to do with price, and as such I do not believe this is good play on FD (again, why he is priced above Burrow is beyond me). I am not the only one considering such a play, especially in cash games. Cam is going to start this week, and while the offensive structure around the Panthers is different than in years past, weapons like CMC and DJ Moore are quit familiar to Cam. The WFT offensive line does pose its challenges, and I think we saw that last week against the Bucs whose game plan had checkdown to RBs written all over it (too bad they generally sucked catching the ball though), but though we really want 20 points out of our QB, 13.7 points does give us the 2.7 ROI we need. As a comparison, Cam got 11.7 on 7 snaps last week, granted he had a rushing and a passing TD to help get him there. Simply put, playing a decent QB such as Cam, who has CMC and can run himself, does afford some significant possibilities at other positions.

RB

CMC – $8900  1x  $10,000

Sam Darnold, PJ Walker, Teddy Bridgewater, Cam Newton, you name the QB and I show you a CMC who is QB proof. He is also, for the most part, matchup proof. McCaffrey, generally speaking, is going to get his. He is such a featured weapon in the pass and run game, that over 100 total yards is almost a lock. Tampa Bay employed a heavy checkdown scheme against WFT last week; there is no reason why Carolina shouldn’t do the same considering they have an RB who can actually catch. I will say though, Cam could easily vulture a TD or two from McCaffrey.

Note – Jonathan Taylor is fine, I’m simply not going him here in cash considering the strength of Buffalo’s defense.

Nick Chubb – $7800  N/A (but probably added later)  $9000

Excuse while I throw up in my mouth a little bit. Despite my disdain for the Cleveland,

I simply can not ignore how good this matchup is for the Brown run game.

Zeke Elliot – $7700  1.15x  $8500

I actually think Zeke will be lower owned this week, especially in GPPs as the majority of players will want to stack the pass catchers in this game, which, as of this writing, has a 56 point expected total.

Joe Mixon – $7600  1.2x  $7600

No, I don’t like the price increase, but there’s no denying the importance Mixon has in this offense.

AJ Dillon – $6200  1.15x  $7000

Chalk….especially on FanDuel.

James Conner – $6100  1.3x  $7200

Start RB1s vs. Seattle. Conner is solidifying himself as the RB1 with Edmonds out. Not only is he an RB1, but he is playing all three downs. I heard a lot of talk about Benjamin getting a lot of looks, but Conner received 76 and 79% of the snaps over the last two weeks.

David Montgomery – $5500  1.15x  $6800

Um…what am I missing with this price? Last week Montgomery returned to a “limited” role and saw 85% of the snaps, 15 touches and 80 total yards. He will likely be chalky. This isn’t your father’s Ravens defense. The Bears offense has looked better in recent weeks as well.

Mark Ingram – $5400  1.45x  $6800

Alvin Kamara was on track to return but on Thursday he was downgraded to no practice. It’s likely that Ingram will be chalky in this matchup.

Darrell Williams – $5400  1.55x  $6300

I have long held the belief that RB1s in an Andy Reid offense smash. You can go back over 15 years at this point to the likes of Brian Westbrook to prove it. The problem with the Chiefs, kind of like the 49ers, is determining who that RB1 is. At the moment it is Williams for the Chiefs. I expect he will be owned after his performance last Sunday night. There is a chance that CEH gets activated on Saturday afternoon though. If CEH is activated, no Williams for me in cash, heavy Williams for me in GPP.

Jeff Wilson – $5100  1.7x  $5000

The SF RB1 revolving door continues. Wilson returned to the lineup last Monday just in time as it looks like Mitchell will miss the game on Sunday. At this price Wilson will likely be chalky against a porous Jags team.

WR

Here’s where this week is going to get real challenging, and probably will make or break our lineups. I honestly think all the top WRs are in play this Sunday, it just comes down to who you trust more. So here are some quick hits on all of them:

Adams – Back to his primary role last week, just got gamescripted out as Seattle’s offense did not show and Green Bay just ran all over them. We likely need 100 yards and a TD, but Adams is a must have in GPP stacks with Fraudgers.

Hill – Tyfreek has 43 more targets than the next KC WR, is averaging 12 targets a game, and has a 29% target share.

Jefferson – continues to be under-owned in DFS. Last season GB found a way with CB Alexander to shut him down…this time, however, Alexander is not in the lineup. Jefferson should have no trouble with CBs King and Douglas…as long as Cousins throws him the ball.

Diggs – Don’t expect last week’s performance, but Indy can be thrown on.

Deebo – Is quickly becoming one of the surest things in football and now gets to play Jacksonville. I do expect the Niners to focus on the run game in this one. What’s that you say? Deebo had 5 carries for 36 yards and a rushing score on Monday night? Not sure I would expect that again, but this dude is GOOD, and would be priced up higher if not for his game being on Monday night.

AJ Brown – It’s Houston, he’s been quiet for 2 weeks now, and he got a price decrease. Sign me up.

Lamb – Love and believe in the talent, don’t love and believe in chasing, especially with Cooper out. I do believe that Michael Gallup’s return last week was a boon for Lamb as he was able to move back into the slot. With Cooper out, it is likely that Lamb moves back to the outside. Chiefs slot CB Sneed is giving up at 76% completion rate ON THE YEAR. Over the last month, KC has allowed the most fantasy points to slot receivers. I would prefer if Wilson steps in for perimeter WR duties and leaves Lamb in the slot….but I just don’t know. No Lamb for me in cash, not even sure about GPP either.

Chase – Speaking of Chase…his fantasy output has been lower of late, but his targets have been higher. That won’t last, positive regression is coming.

Hollywood – See the piece on Bateman…Hollywood likely gets whatever Bateman does not. Not crazy about Hollywood’s price tag though.

DK Metcalf – $6800  1.2x  $7500

DK burned about 8 – 12% of DFS players last week…like, for instance, me.

That’s what makes me love him this week, especially in GPPs….well….like only in GPPs. He should be even lower owned this week. Do we really think the Seahawks are going to continue to put up doughnuts? (Yeah, btw, that’s how that word is really spelled.) Additionally, the matchup is superb here against CB Wilson who is a 4th round rookie allowing a 75% completion rate.

Brandin Cooks – $6000  1.4x  $6600

While the overall team matchup for Cooks and the Texans isn’t all the great, the opportunity that Cooks has simply can’t be ignored. He has a 30% target share, basically plays all the offensive snaps, runs routes on 95% of the snaps (means he isn’t used to block) and is targeted 1 out of every 3 routes run. The gamescript is also one where the Texans are likely trailing and need to throw.

DJ Moore – $5900  1.25x  $6700

Yes, if you can’t tell I am high on the Panthers this week. The return of CMC to this offense means everything. Also, half decent QB play would be appreciated as well. CMC’s presence affords opportunities to other offensive players. The WFT secondary is still not good, I don’t care how many INTs they lucked into last week. Also, they just lost their top pass rusher in Chase Young.  WFT is also dealing with injuries in the secondary, CBs Fuller and St.-Juste didn’t practice until Friday. Cam’s throws in New England last year were of the short yardage variety as he rarely went deep down field. All signs point to Moore who runs intermediate routes and is exceptional at creating separation. Also, the price is great.

Hunter Renfrow – $5800  1.45x  $6100

Don’t like the price increase, but I was expecting it. Renfrow has picked up 6 or more receptions in 5 of this last 6. The Bengals have given up the 7th most fantasy points per game to slot receivers over their past 4 outings. CB Hilton has given up the 2nd most receptions among all slot corners.

Jaylen Waddle – $5600  1.55x  $6700

This week the Dolphins get a Jets secondary that is giving up the 10th most fantasy points per game to slot receivers. Rookie CB Carter is allowing a 73% catch rate to opposing WRs and is top 10 among all slot corners in receptions and receiving yards allowed. Waddle has eclipsed 60+ yards in 4 of his last 5 games, and has, in my humble opinion, a better QB throwing him the ball now.

Tee Higgins – $5400  1.5x  $6500

Since Week 5, Higgins has collected 42 targets (Chase has 47). This week Higgins will spend most of his time against CB Facyson who is Pro Football Focus’s # 102 CB (out of 119). See last week, when he got torched multiple times vs the Chiefs. Overall, he has a 25% target share and has gone over 10 DK points in 6 out of 7 games whilst going over 13 in 5 of them.

Corey Davis – $5000  1.5x  $6400

Davis returned to the Jets offense in solid form last week. He saw 7 targets for 5 catches and 93 yards while boasting a 16.3% target share.

Rashod Bateman – $4500  1.75x  $5800

Bateman has averaged 7 targets a game over his last 4. He likely gets CB Johnson, who looked good to start the year, but has allowed a 65% catch rate over the last 4 games. In case Bateman gets other CB Vildor…well that guy is Pro Football Focus’s # 94 graded CB.

TE

Travis Kelce – $7100  1x  $7300

If KC has indeed fixed its offense, then Kelce should be in line for a good workload against this 23rd ranked offense vs TEs.

George Kittle – $6300  1.35x  $6800

Kittle looks healthy and back to the receiver he was not too long ago. The 49ers get the Jaguars, and they have multiple ways to attack this defense, including to Kittle who has 15 targets in his last 2 games and 2 TDs.

Mike Gesicki – $5200  1.5x  $6300

This price is too cheap for what was essentially Tua’s WR1/2. Well, Tua is back starting this week and now they get the lowly Jets. Gesicki also had a grand total of 0 points last game, that shouldn’t happen again.

Dan Arnold – $4100  1.75x  $5400

The legend of Dan Arnold continues into week 11. With the price increase though we now need 11.07 DK points to achieve a successful ROI. I wasn’t shocked, but I was surprised at Arnold’s ownership last week. I attribute much of that to people pivoting off Freirmuth once news came out that Big Ben was out with the Rona. Arnold arguably has the most solidified role in this offense right now.

DST

Tennesse Titans – $3900  $4600

LOL. I love that last week this $2600 defense was 30% owned and now gets a price increase of $1300 based on ownership and opponent. Obviously this is a decent spot for them, but the increase and influx of interest in them likely has me off.

San Francisco 49ers – $3700  $4900

If the Monday night game had been factored into pricing, then the 49ers would be well over 4K. This should be a popular defense based on their primetime performance and the perceived good matchup against the Jags.

Baltimore Ravens – $3300  $4500

The Ravens defense is not what it used to be, and I expect the Bears to rely on their ground game in this one, but it’s still Jsutin Fields. The Bears have been better, and for that reason I’m not going here in cash, but would it really surprise us to see the Ravens make this a rough Sunday for Fields?

Cleveland Browns – $3100  $5000

It’s the Lions. These Lions:

Aren’t they cute?

Dallas Cowboys – $2800  $3700

One of two things will happen in this game…either the Cowboys defense will not have as similar of a performance as they did against Atlanta, or KC will not have as similar of a performance as they did against the Raiders.

Carolina Panthers – $2700  $4100

I don’t care what they did versus Tampa, the WFT offense is not good.

Washington Football Team – $2400  $3500

They can get home to the QB. 6 or 7 fantasy points is all we really need here at this price, and they have been doing that.

Where I am at:

DK

To Cam or not to Cam.

With all the top WRs in good spots, I’m leaning toward trying to find value at WR and start some RBs who are in good spots. Without naming names, those RBs rhyme with Run DMC, Bonner, Smithson, and Gontmomery.

GPP

The Dallas v KC game presents opportunities. I expect this game to be heavily owned in DFS. If you don’t want to go with either team’s passing attack, then I recommend using either team’s run game and either defense as leverage against all those who will be playing the QBs and pass catchers.