Welcome to the Conference Championship GPP Breakdown!

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This is the last slate of the season that will feature more than one game. Typically there is not much of an edge to gain on a 2 game slate, but let’s get into it and see about the best plays.

DFS Conference Championship Ownership Report

1. Ja’Marr Chase – 57.5%
2. Christian McCaffrey – 54.8%
3. Joe Mixon – 51.2%
4. Jerick McKinnon – 47.1%
5. AJ Brown – 43%
6. Deebo Samuel – 42.4%
7. Travis Kelce – 39.8%
8. DeVonta Smith – 39.4%
9. Dallas Goedert – 38%
10. Brandon Aiyuk – 37.8%
11. Tee Higgins – 36.8%
12. Joe Burrow – 35.6%
13. Jalen Hurts – 33.4%
14. Eagles – 32.8%
15. Hayden Hurst – 30.4%

Updates on the Discord on Sunday morning!

San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles

Eagles  -2.5

O/U 46

The 49ers defense limited the Cowboys to 76 total rush yards on 22 carries. That’s good for 3.4 yards per carry. Both the total and the yards per carry are below league average. If the Eagles come out and try to run the ball, they are probably doing the 49ers a favor. As such, Eagles RBs should be low owned, but finding Kenneth Gainwell in the optimal lineup again could be a stretch.

49er opponents are opting to throw against them and WR1s have been the beneficiaries. Ceedee Lamb went 10 for 117 last weekend and prior to that Davante Adams and DK Metcalf found success as well. AJ Brown will see matchups against Charvarius Ward and Deommodore Lenoir, and he has a weight advantage against both. I’m highly interested in Brown for DFS Conference Championship GPPs.

The Eagles defense was healthy and formidable against the Giants last weekend. Daniel Jones was sacked 5 times and hit 8. Philadelphia also has arguably the best secondary in football, so Brock Purdy is going to have his work cut out for him, especially if the Eagles find ways to dial up pressure. The Niner offensive line is pretty good, especially on the the left side, but this game will likely be decided by the 49er offensive line vs the Eagles defensive front matchup.

I fully expect the Niners to rely heavily on CMC, Elijah Mitchell, and their run game. They want to run the ball, and teams who have had success against the Eagles have been able to establish the run. CMC’s calf injury is legitimate, and it affected him last weekend. He didn’t even get to practice until Friday, and even that was at a limited capacity. Additionally, Elijah Mitchell has not participated in practice all week. I expect both to play, but I am worried about possible ceiling games out of either. CMC could put up 15 points and still end up in the optimal lineup though.

One potential “get different” area for DFS Conference Championship GPPs might be with Jauan Jennings or George Kittle. The middle of the Eagles defense is the most vulnerable spot. Jennings is the receiver who lines up in the slot the most, but do know that Kittle, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk occasionally travel there as well.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs  -1.5

O/U 47

This game originally opened with the Bengals favored by 1, but Mahomes has been a full participant at practice, so we now have the Chiefs favored. Despite that, I’m still not sure the Chiefs should be favored, and I personally think the Bengals are looking at a return trip to the Super Bowl (they haven’t lost since October).

The Chiefs have the worst defense out of the four remaining teams. Over their last 13 games, the Chiefs are allowing 120 rushing yards per game and 4.6 yards per carry. This puts Joe Mixon firmly in play, but Joe Mixon’s receiving role has basically disappeared and been given to Samaje Perine.

Additionally, I expect the Bengals receivers to be popular since the Chiefs have not been good against the pass. Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins will see rookie CBs Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson. Chase has faced the Chiefs three times over the last year; in those games he has gone 11-266-3, 6-54-1, and 7-97-0. Tyler Boyd should see plenty of CB L’Jarius Sneed who is allowing a 70.4% catch rate and is bottom 10 among CBs in yards allowed.

Even though Mahomes has been a full participant at practice this week, call me skeptical about his ability to be the usual Mahomes. First off, the Bengals defense has been solid in its last few games and secondly, Mahomes likely has zero rushing upside. On top of that, Mahomes only completed 59.3% of his passes for 223 yards against this unit when they met in Week 13. Those things being said, Mahomes has been a full participant, and he’s Patrick Mahomes, AND he’s lower owned than he should be (potentially under 20% on a 4 game slate).

Jerick McKinnon had a pretty good day in Week 13, and the Chiefs RB1 Darrel Williams did well in last year’s AFC championship game. With Mahomes’ potential limited ability, short passes and RB usage could be the story, so I have interest in both Chiefs RBs.

Watch Mahomes have a rushing score.

Where I’m at for the Conference Championship Slate

• I’ll be using Joe Burrow and will be stacking him with 2 or 3 of his teammates, including Joe Mixon. A Chiefs RBs and/or one KC pass catcher will be my run back in Burrow stacks.
• AJ Brown may be in line for a big day.
• I’ll have a few Jalen Hurts stacks as well. He is basically the Eagle goal line back, and QB draws and scrambles up the middle are always an option with Jason Kelce at center.
• In case the “high ankle sprain” narrative is a ruse, I’ll have some Mahomes stacks too.
• A Samaje Perine 3 catch, 29 yards and a score game may be enough to get it down at the RB position.

Bonus DFO Only Advice

A sub 20% owned Patrick Mahomes on a 4 game slate does not come along often. I like Burrow and Hurts better, even if Mahomes is fully healthy. However, should Mahomes outscore both of them, well then that could be the ticket to the top of GPPs this weekend.

Enjoy the games!

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