Hey all and welcome to Week 5 of the NFL season! Last week was my most profitable one of the year thus far. Hopefully that’s a sign of things to come here in Week 5! We have three games with 50 totals or higher, so diverse ownership as well as variant outcomes are on the table this week. If you want to check out my specific ownership projections, here is the link to my article on Gridiron Experts.

On to the games!

New York Giants @ Miami

• It’s Wan’Dale Robinson week as DraftKings didn’t increase his minimum priced salary despite him now being the primary passing option in the Giants aerial attack. With a 50 point total, many a player will click his name to save salary for other studs.
• Saquon may or may not suit up for this one. It’s a plus matchup for him, but even if he plays he may be on a pitch count.
• Daniel Jones SHOULD be better in this one, but Miami’s statistics against opposing offenses could be a result of their offensive output as teams have to throw and increase pace of play to keep up.
• Tyreek Hill or Wan’Dale will probably be the highest owned player on Sunday.
• Waddle makes for a nice pivot off Hill, but proceed with caution as I think Hill is chasing records this season.
• Tua is looking at 12% ownership.
• This could be De’Von Achane’s backfield now.

Carolina @ Detroit

• I’m Just Goff plays better at home, so I anticipate a decent day out of him.
• Carolina’s secondary is depleted and will likely play a lot of zone coverage. This is great news for Amon-Ra if he plays. He’s dealing with an ab issue and is Doubtful.
• Jameson Williams should return. His MO is taking the top off the defense, which should only benefit the Sun God even more.
• Should Amon-Ra miss, the scheme benefits Sam LaPorta the most.
• David Montgomery should have like 5 one yard TD plunges in this one.
• Jahmyr Gibbs can’t run between the tackles.
• Adam Thielen has found the Fountain of Youth. I would like to find it as well.
• Jonathan Mingo is set to return. Before he went down he was looking like a primary option in this passing attack. His return could eat into the targets that both Thielen and Terrace Marshall were getting. DJ Chark remains a deep threat, but Andy Dalton seems more capable of hitting him than Bryce Young does.
• Miles Sanders continues to deal with a groin injury, but he keeps playing through it.

Houston @ Atlanta

• LT Laremy Tunsil could return this week. That will be good news for Dameon Pierce.
• All of a sudden the Texans seem like they have an embarrassment of riches at WR.
• A certain someone who may or may not write cocktail recipes for DFO plays against me this week. He spent a large percentage of his remaining budget on acquiring CJ Stroud and then benched Justin Fields the other night.

• That being said, the Texans look way more legit than I anticipated them being. Atlanta plods along at a slow pace so Stroud’s ceiling could be limited here.
• Bijan Robinson is going to be one of the higher owned players this weekend as the perception out there is that the Texans are awful against the run. Someone should probably have told the Steelers that though.
• For some reason Kyle Pitts is garnering ownership too. Last week in the UK, an Atlanta Falcons TE had 6 catches for 95 yards against the Jaguars. That TE was Jonnu Smith.
• Who’s worse? Desmond Ridder or Kenny Pickett?

Baltimore @ Pittsburgh

• This game was played last week and Baltimore won. You can’t fool me.

New Orleans @ New England

• Ah yes, the French and the English meet again on the battlefield.

• Rhamondre Stevenson is collecting a lot of ownership. Too much for someone who might not even play.
• Mac Jones is supposedly still the starting QB for the Patriots.

• If you want to play the Patriots pass catchers in DFS, have at it. At least they’ll be low owned.
• The Patriots defense is still solid, but losing CB Christian Gonzalez really hurts.
• New Orleans has their own issues at QB as Derek Carr is nursing an injury. He should still get the start over Jameis Winston.
• Alvin Kamara returned last week and promptly received 14! targets, of which he caught 13. Considering Javonte Williams and Najee Harris actually suck, I’m glad I stashed him in one of my leagues.
• Michael Thomas and Chris Olave are the clear receiving leaders in this offense as they are targeted the most, have the most receptions, and the most yards. It’s definitely a plus that neither has to face Gonzalez in Week 5, but perhaps Belichick and company can bring a resurgence to JC Jackson’s career.

Tennessee @ Indianapolis

• The Titans DST is near min-priced on DraftKings and could the most rostered “player” this weekend. Colts are riddled with injuries along their offensive line, and the Titans are good at stopping the run, which is the Colts’ bread and butter.
• The Titans are less than mediocre against the pass, so it could be a good day for Michael Pittman or Josh Downs as long as Anthony Richardson’s game does not become too one dimensional.
• With Treylon Burks likely to miss, Deandre Hopkins is in line for a good day against CBs who can’t play football.
• Indianapolis is middling against the run, so it could be another good day for Derrick Henry as well. Kyren Williams ran for 103 and 2 TDs against this unit last Sunday.

Cincinnati @ Arizona

• Joe Burrow has been like one step above a traffic cone with an arm so far this season. He is still battling his calf injury, and is likely to do so again. However, he’s approaching ownership levels that are just too low, so I’m taking a shot on him and Chase this weekend.
• Joe Mixon is supposedly coming in with ownership, but I don’t buy it, he was under 2% owned last week. The Cardinals are subpar against the run though, so it could work out.
• The Bengals are also quite bad against the run, so hello James Conner.
• Joshua Dobbs has been surprisingly decent in 2023. If this game were to shoot out, he would be an interesting option to roster in GPP tournaments.
• Hollywood is coming in with ownership this week despite Michael Wilson announcing his arrival in the NFL in Week 4 and being a popular waiver add for Week 5.

Philadelphia @ Los Angeles Rams

• Will he or won’t he? I’m typing this article on Friday, so hopefully by publication time on Saturday we have more information about Cooper Kupp’s availability against the Eagles.
• Would you be surprised if I told you the Eagles pass defense is statistically worse than the Vikings? It is.
• So, what to do with Nacua and Atwell may have to wait until Sunday morning. CB Darius Slay is likely taking Cooper Kupp or Nacua out of this game, but if Kupp doesn’t play, then I like Atwell to go up against CB Josh Jobe, an undrafted free agent who is Pro Football Focus’ 106th ranked CB…..out of 109.
• This is now Kyren Williams’ backfield, but production may have to wait until Week 6 against the Cardinals as the Eagles are still a stout defense against the run. That and teams have had to pass to keep up with them.
• With a high total of 50.5, there’s some ownership coming in all over the Eagles. The lowest is the Slim Reaper, DeVonta Smith, so I’ll be looking his way and hopefully Jalen Hurts will be as well.

Kansas City @ Minnesota

• This game has the highest total of the week at 53. I don’t know, have the Chiefs looked that good thus far though?
• Also, if you’re the Vikings, do you really want to get into a throwing contest with KC? HC O’Connell has openly said he wants to run the ball more.
• Also, the KC defense has been better. They’re allowing only 104 yards rushing a game and 191 passing.
• Additionally, both of these teams are middle of the road in terms of plays per game.
• Obviously in seasonal leagues you’re starting guys like Mahomes, Cousins, Kelce, JJ, Mattison, and Pacheco. But from a DFS perspective, I’m going to go ahead an gamble that this doesn’t become the GPP winning environment of Week 5.

New York Jets @ Denver

• I’m so looking forward to capping my afternoon of watching football with this matchup.

• Supposedly Javonte Williams might suit up for this one. I’m not sure if I want him to or not.
• The Broncos defense has been awful. Out of the two, they have been worse defending the run than the pass, so it could be a Breece Hall week.
• The Jets defense has been solid, but lost in the Broncos defense being wretched is that Russell Wilson and his aerial attack has been pretty good. He’s been spreading the ball around too much for my liking, so targeting a single pass catcher from Denver might be tough against the Jets secondary.
• If I’m the Broncos, and thank God for small favors that I’m not, I try to make Zach Wilson beat me. Either way, Garrett Wilson should be Zach Wilson’s primary read when he does drop back to pass, and it doesn’t look like the Broncos could stop my mom if she were throwing passes out there. Love you, mom.