Hey all and welcome to Week 7 of the NFL season!  Here is the link to my article on Gridiron Experts should you feel so inclined.

Let’s just dive right into this one.

Las Vegas @ Chicago

• Josh Jacobs looks way too highly owned considering the matchup. The Bears have been one of the best teams this season in terms of rushing yards against, and they’ve been the best team against the run in the entire league over the last 3 games. However, those teams were the Broncos, Commanders, and Vikings.
• Davante Adams sounded off to the media about his role in this offense. He also looks low owned compared to the other high priced WRs in his range. This is a decent matchup too. Double digit targets could be incoming.
• Jimmy G isn’t going to suit up, so it’s either Hoyer or O’Connell in this one. I hope it’s Hoyer as he has a track record of leaning on Adams.
• The Bears might be down 3 offensive linemen as well as Justin Fields on Sunday. This is a decent spot for Maxx Crosby and company against a college free agent QB making his first career start.

Cleveland @ Indianapolis

• It’s Gardner Minshew for the foreseeable future in Indy. This is actually pretty good news for the fantasy prospects of Josh Downs, Michael Pittman, and other Colt pass catchers.
• It should also be eventually good news for Jonathan Taylor who won’t have to compete with his QB for rush yards. Zach Moss isn’t going away though as the two are currently splitting snaps. Taylor should get the majority of the workload eventually, but I’m unsure if that starts this week against a stout Browns defense.
• Deshaun Watson returned to practice and went full on Friday suggesting that he will return on Sunday.
• Jerome Ford should have a solid day plodding along against the middle of the road defense. Kareem Hunt is beginning to eat into that work which likely limits Ford’s ceiling.
• Amari Cooper remains the only Brown receiver I am interested in. We’ve been waiting for Elijah Moore to be good for 2 and a half years now.

Washington @ NY Giants

• It feels like the entire Giants’ offensive line is injured this week, so it could be wheels up for the Commander defensive front. The Commanders are dealing with injuries of their own in the secondary, which was already not good, so that helps to explain why some folks are interested in Danny Dimes who may or may not even play in this game.
• Saquon is coming in low owned. He has touchdown upside and receiving upside that could make him a nice contrarian option, but I don’t expect him to have much running room.
• Terry McLaurin will see matchups against CBs Adoree’ Jackson and Deonte Banks. Banks ranks as PFF’s 84th CB while Jackson ranks 108th.
• Everyone has given up on Jahan Dotson and left him for dead. That is when those players score.

Detroit @ Baltimore

• Teams can’t run on the Lions, but they can throw on them.
• Lamar is gathering some ownership, but Zay Flowers is really gathering it.
• Mark Andrews might be a nice contrarian play off the Travis Kelce and Luke Musgrave chalk.
• David Montgomery is going to miss again, Jahmyr Gibbs is going to play. He hasn’t played since Week 4, and he has yet to show the ability to run between the tackles. Craig Reynolds has been practicing, albeit in a limited variety.
• People forgot about Amon-Ra last week, they are reminding themselves about him to the tune of 12% ownership.

Atlanta @ Tampa Bay

• When is Bijan Robinson, a mother bleeping 8th overall pick going to have a rushing touchdown? @Atlanta:

• DT Vita Vea is Questionable and LB Anthony Nelson is too. Perhaps this could be the week for Bijan.
• Team TE should be a thing. If it were, the Falcons TE position would be gold. Instead, Jonnu Smith caps Kyle Pitts’ ceiling.
• Rachaad White is garnering some ownership. Not sure why considering the Falcons are decent against the run.
• Mike Evans should return in this one, I have interest there as he seems to be Baker’s preferred target.

Buffalo @ New England

• The Patriots may be missing 2 offensive linemen, which could make things harder for the team to protect someone who can’t play quarterback. The Bills DST is of interest to me here.
• Josh Allen typically has his way with New England, and that’s when their top two CBs aren’t out or injured.
• Stefon Diggs has a 33% target share.
• Gabe Davis has like 3% ownership. Kendrick Bourne has 14%. Let that sink in for a minute.
• Latavius Murray is scoring at least one TD here.

Arizona @ Seattle

• The Seahawks are going to be a popular survivor pick this week, but it feels trappy for me. Everything, I mean everything, it point toward a situation where Seattle should win this one easily. That scares me.
• Kenneth Walker is a smash spot this week, and his DFS ownership (25%) reflects that.
• Geno Smith could be the highest owned QB on Sunday. He has thrown more than one TD in exactly 1 game this season.
• Tyler Lockett is looking higher owned than DK. Proceed accordingly.
• Kyler started practicing this week.

• This might be Joshua Dobbs’ last chance to make a case to stay the starter. A win would go a long way.
• Hollywood Brown is looking at some ownership. Michael Wilson is not.
• I’m not playing the Cards’ confusing RB situation against a tough run defense.

Pittsburgh @ LA Rams

• The Steelers are allowing 398 total yards of offense per game, and it’s spread out between the run and pass.
• Cooper Kupp SZN. He’ll be over 20% owned.
• Kyren Williams is going to miss, and Ronnie Rivers is out for a few weeks as well. While it appears Zach Evans will be in line for much of the RB work, McVay was non-committal about what his role would be. The Rams just signed Royce Freeman, Myles Gaskin, and former Ram Darrell Henderson. Evans SHOULD be the primary RB this weekend. At 4K, he’ll be a popular play, but I’m not sure he’s guaranteed the workload nor the effectiveness that Williams was getting. McVay can be fickle with his RBs, so Evans could be a fumble or missed block away from the bench. All three of the new RB signings could be active on Sunday.
• Georgie Pickens for me on the Pittsburgh side. Not interested in anyone else.

Green Bay @ Denver

• Denver is statistically the worst defense out there.
• They are allowing 173 rushing yards a game, and Aaron Jones just returned to practice this week.
• At 117.8, the Broncos are also allowing the league’s highest QB rating to opposing signal callers. It could be a good day for Jordan Love and his pass catchers who are coming off a week 6 bye.
• The Broncos are the worst team against the TE position, which explains Musgrave’s chalky ownership.
• Christian Watson should be the highest owned WR on Green bay this weekend.
• Do I have to play to someone on Denver’s side? Please don’t make me.

LA Chargers @ Kansas City

• At 391.6, the Chargers are second in the league behind the Broncos in amount of yards allowed per game, but they are first in passing yards allowed with 289. They are giving up the 2nd most fantasy points per game to WRs.
• The leaders of the Chief passing attack in terms of target share are Travis Kelce who has a 26% share and Rashee Rice at 14%. Rice has continued to see his role in this offense grow. He has also been running many of his routes out of the slot, which is what CeeDee Lamb did last week against this Charger defense. Slot CB Ja’Sir Taylor is PFF’s 107th ranked CB.
• You can pay up for Ekeler if you want, but the Chiefs are in the top 10 (barely) in terms of rushing yards allowed per game as well.
• The Chiefs defense has been rather decent this year, which has made Mahomes and company less required to go nuclear every week.
• Isiah Pacheco may be the highest owned player on Sunday.

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