Hey all and welcome to the Christmas Eve slate of games for Sunday! I hope all of you are having a good holiday season and that the in-laws aren’t too overbearing. At this time of year, I like to begin to pay attention to teams and players who are incentivized to perform well. For players that could mean contract incentives should they achieve a certain amount of yards, catches, rushing attempts, or TDs. While it might be a tad early to dive into those, it isn’t too early to begin looking at teams who might be incentivized by potential playoff berths, home-field advantages or potential draft positions in 2024. We got 9 games to get through for this Sunday, so let’s get into it!

Packers @ Panthers

• Buckle up folks! These 2 teams have nothing to play for other than maybe a higher draft pick.
• Chuba Hubbard has emerged as the clear primary back for Carolina. The Packers are yielding the 8th most PPR points to RBs over the last month.
• Christian Watson, Luke Musgrave, and Jayden Reed are all unlikely to play. Tucker Kraft, Dontayvion Wicks, and Romeo Doubs should slot into the primary receiving options for Jordan Love. The Panthers defense has been one of the best against QBs and WRs over the last month.
• Aaron Jones had 17 total touches in his return last week. AJ Dillon has been limited all week. The Panthers are a middle of the road defense against the RB position. I’m not expecting a ceiling performance here.
• The Panthers are 2-12, 29th in scoring and have allowed the 4th most fantasy points to defenses.

Lions @ Vikings

• A lot of ownership will gravitate toward this matchup which features a total of 47.5. The Lions sit at 10-4 and are in the running for a first round bye. If they win and the 49ers lose to Baltimore on Monday night, then the Lions will be right there. The Vikings are 7-7 and are battling for their playoff lives. A win would give them a 75% chance of making the postseason.
• The Lions are allowing production to WRs at a top 10 rate. Last week Mullens showed a nice connection with both Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. JJ lead the team with 10 targets and Addison hauled in all 6 of his to eclipse 100 yards and nab 2 scores.
• With Alexander Mattison probably out, and with his performance against the Bengals last week, Ty Chandler is going to be hard to ignore. The Lions are one of the better teams in football against the run. Stacking Chandler with Mullens, if you were to choose to go that route, might make you a little more unique.
• It’s becoming tougher to ignore Jahmyr Gibbs and his big play making potential. Just keep in mind that David Montgomery continues to see more carries. Against Denver in week 15, the Lions RBs had 32 total opportunities. This will probably come down to who finds the end zone, but the Vikings have been one of the best teams in football against the run recently.
• Minnesota is also decent against WRs and TEs. That being said, Amon-Ra and LaPorta shouldn’t be ignored. The Vikings are better against the run than the pass, so a big day could be in play for a Detroit receiver should Minnesota prove capable of shutting down one of the best rushing attacks in football.

Colts @ Falcons

• Art Smith and the Falcons sit at 6 – 8 and are currently on the outside looking in for the playoffs.

• No one is more excited about this than I. You don’t deserve your job you fantasy football terrorist.
• Zach Moss is likely out and Jonathan Taylor has been practicing this week. Props to the DFS sites for having Jonathan Taylor’s price high enough. He would have been super chalk if he had a price tag under 5K.
• Michael Pittman looks like he’s going to play in this one. Good thing too as the passing attack just won’t be the same without him.

Seahawks @ Titans

• On that final drive against the Eagles, DK Metcalf showed that if you just throw him the ball, he can go it almost anywhere. The Titans secondary is banged up and also not good to begin with. CB Tre Avery, an undrafted free agent, has been forced into service on the perimeter. His numbers are not good, and he is the one I would be targeting with DK on Sunday if I were the Seahawks. I am even more interested in going that route if Tyler Lockett continues to have a higher ownership projection.
• The Seahawks can be had on the ground. Tyjae Spears has had at least 10 touches in 3 straight games. With Derrick Henry likely to be gone via free agency, the Titans may want to continue to see what they have in Spears.

Browns @ Texans

• The Texans seemed to announce loud and clear that Singletary is the lead back in Houston. He had 26 carries in week 15 while the other Texans RBs combined for 2. The price is nice, but the Browns defense is a top 10 unit against the run.
• David Njoku has established a nice rapport with Joe Flacco and the Houston Texans have surrendered the 4th most PPR points to TEs this year.
• The Texans DST could be sneaky. This year Cleveland has shown a propensity for turning the ball over.

Commanders @ Jets

• For this Christmas I’ve ordered up some Trevor Siemian for everyone. No need to thank me. I know you’re as excited for Siemian as Max was for his Oster bread maker.

• To be fair, the bread maker has about 2 more speeds than Siemian.
• This WAS a good matchup for Garrett Wilson. The Commanders are giving up the 2nd most fantasy points to WRs. CBs Benjamin St-Juste and Kendall Fuller are a pair of the worst CBs in football.
• The Commanders have yielded 59 sacks and have turned the ball over 24 times this year.

Jaguars @ Buccaneers

• Don’t look now, but in Tampa’s first year after the retirement of Tom Brady, the Bucs are fighting to win their division. A win against the Jags would go a long way toward making that a reality.
• Rachaad White has seen a price increase, but it’s still probably too low considering his workload in this offense. Over the last 4 weeks, Jacksonville is the 4th worst team vs RBs.
• In their last 4 matchups the Jaguars have allowed Michael Pittman, Jonathan Mingo, Drake London, and Dontayvion Wicks to have big days against them. All are primary outside WRs just like Mike Evans. Jacksonville employs zone coverage at top 5 rate in the NFL, Evans is one of the best in football in terms yards per route run against zone. A deep shot or a few are likely in line for Evans against the beatable CB duo of Tyson Campbell (who is dealing with a quadriceps injury) and Darious Williams.
• The Jaguars, at 8-6, have the same record as 2 other teams in their division. From a playoff probability making standpoint, the Jags chances of making the playoffs climb to 85% with a win here and are reduced to 50% with a loss. Trevor Lawrence has yet to practice as he sits in concussion protocol, but many in the fantasy industry expect him to play, and the Jags really could use him in their fight to make the postseason.
• I’m not too interested in going the Travis Etienne route here. Vita Vea has been back at practice for the Bucs. This is a significant boost to run stopping ability of Tampa. I could also see the Bucs stacking the box if Lawrence sits.
• The Bucs have been a middling group against WRs and TEs, however, therefore I have no qualms running a Bucs stack back with Calvin Ridley or Evan Engram. Parker Washington and Jamaal Agnew make for decent punts as Christian Kirk continues to be sidelined and Zay Jones is likely to miss with a hamstring injury.

Cardinals @ Bears

• The Cardinals have been better of late against both QBs and WRs, but I wouldn’t actually call it good. They have been the worst team against RBs, which I’m thinking might translate nicely to the running-prone Fields. Also, they way he finishes this year could heavily influence what the Bears do in the offseason, so Fields should be plenty motivated to do well.
• DJ Moore will get matchups against CBs Antonio Hamilton and Starling Thomas. Hamilton is decent but Thomas is Pro Football Focus’ 111th ranked CB…out of 119.
• Yes, the Cards are awful against the run, but good luck figuring which back will have good day. 6 different players had at least one rushing attempt for Chicago last week.
• The Bears DST has looked real good ever since the acquisition of Montez Sweat. I’ll be firing them up in DFS contests again this week as they take on the Cardinals.

Cowboys @ Dolphins

• Win or lose, both teams are still likely to make the playoffs, but both are fighting for home advantage and perhaps a first-round bye.
• The 51 total is going to attract players to this matchup, but for me, everything rest with the availability of Tyreek Hill.  Dallas utilizes man coverage, Tyfreek is top tier against man coverage so long as he is healthy. We don’t really need to worry about any one matchup here, we just need to worry if Hill will get the opportunity. Hill didn’t practice on Wednesday, but he did get in a limited session on Thursday.
• What has me hesitant about this matchup, from a stacking perspective, however, is that not too many are talking about how good the Dolphins defense has become. In the last month, they have been a top 5 unit against QBs, WRs, and TEs. They also sit just outside the top 10 against RBs. Dak Prescott and company hit a bump in the road against a Bills team that was banged up in their secondary. Now the Boys get a Miami secondary that’s been quite good since the return of CB Jalen Ramsay. The offenses have shown the ability to have big games, it just wouldn’t surprise if this one sort of disappoints.
• The Cowboys defense has not been the stout unit that they were in the first half of the season. In the last month they are surrendering the 12th most points to QBs, 9th most to RBs, 11th most to WRs. They are the best against TEs, but I’m pretty sure Miami doesn’t have any of those anyway.

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