CFL Beat: Week 21

The playoff picture is now almost set – save for two final important games that will determine the winner of the West Division, and an always-valuable first-round playoff bye! We have one “meaningless” week of football – but I do hope all the same that it’s mildly entertaining. The final week of the regular season can sometimes be a complete, worthless slog – but at least we do have a couple of intriguing to note in our Western matchups, as previously noted. Not too much on the news this week, but expect to see a few more notes once the regular season officially concludes and we see the dominoes fall for further coach firings and players opting to test free agency.

Onto the games!

WEEK 20 RECAPS

Calgary 20 vs. Hamilton 42: With a season like Bo Levi Mitchell is having this year, it’s somewhat surprising that the Tiger-Cats aren’t playoff-bound, but alas, that’s the nature of what having an abominable defence does to a team. At any rate, BLM had his best game ever in black & gold, and arguably one of the best of his entire CFL career… with 450 passing yards and five touchdowns, he absolutely shredded the lowly Stampeders through the air as the Tiger-Cats wrapped up their home schedule of the 2024 regular season. RB Greg Bell also had 139 rushing yards, and Calgary got absolutely walloped… after their first drive of the game was picked off by Tabbies DB Jonathan Moxey, Calgary folded like a cheap house of cards… the 30-9 halftime score was generous in representing just how badly things went for them. The Stamps haven’t won a game in eleven weeks… and likely soon to be twelve very soon. Ouch.

PICK: Hamilton

Ottawa 31 vs. Toronto 38: Don’t let the final score of this game fool you: this game was all Toronto right up through the fourth quarter; with a 38-6 lead the outcome wasn’t really in doubt. The REDBLACKS looked thoroughly outgunned all game, right up until that fourth quarter, when, surprisingly, they woke up and managed to score two TDs and also recover two(!!) onside kicks to keep possession going… but it was all for naught. Too little, too late – the REDBLACKS lost their fifth straight, and to make matters worse, also allowed the Argos to clinch second place in the East Division and secure the rights to host a home playoff game. Chad Kelly had three pass TDs and a rushing score, while Dru Brown, in his first game in several weeks, threw four TDs returning from an ankle injury… the REDBLACKS will need to show far more fight in the East Semifinal if they want to properly beat these Argos next time… Toronto’s getting hot at exactly the right time of year.

PICK: Toronto

RESULT: Toronto

Montreal 3 vs. BC 27: Vernon Adams, Jr. made his first start for the Lions since Week 9, and the Lions looked like the team they were back in the first half of the year thanks to his return from a knee injury. Against an Alouettes that was resting many starters – though still a formidable opponent – Adams had 393 passing yards and three total TDs, plus two interceptions; moreover, the Lions D, a sore spot over the last few weeks, looked like an absolutely ruthless unit out on the field. Both Cody Fajardo and Davis Alexander couldn’t get anything going against the defence, and Montreal was held off the scoreboard entirely until Jose Maltos kicked a field goal with eleven minutes left in the fourth quarter. While the result was moot for both teams, as each already knew where they were finishing in the standings, it does open some postseason intrigue for BC – and beyond, as well. With two expensive quarterbacks on the roster for 2025, both of whom are certified CFL starters, one of Nathan Rourke and Vernon Adams, Jr. will have to go next year. It really looked as though Rourke was going to be the one to stay when he was signed in August; but with the team’s slide of recent, the onus is now on VA to show that he should be the one to stay and Rourke should be the one to leave. A tough decision looms for the front office.

PICK: Montreal

RESULT: BC

BYE: Edmonton (6-11), Saskatchewan (9-7-1), Winnipeg (10-7)

WEEK 21 PREVIEWS

Hamilton (7-10) vs. Ottawa (8-8-1), Friday, October 25th, 7:00 PM EDT (TSN, CFL+): The REDBLACKS really, really need to right this sinking ship. Going into this game having lost five in a row, things are not looking great for the post-season ahead. While they have, of course, had to deal with a whole rash of injuries as of recent, they’re now getting a number of key contributors back, and so need to close out the regular season with a win in order to try and rid themselves of some of the bad habits and undisciplined play we’ve seen over the last month. I would expect to see most of their starters in order to try and re-establish some chemistry and work on starting much better out of the gate. Hamilton, on the flip side, will close out this year on the outside looking in to the playoff race; despite QB Bo Levi Mitchell having an MOP-calibre season, it just simply wasn’t enough to get the job done. He does have one more year left on his deal; going into his age 35 year, perhaps he does have a little something left to give… but moreover, it’s the defence that needs to be looked at in detail. They made significant strides once Chris Jones came in after getting fired in Edmonton, replacing Mark Washington as DC… but it was too little, too late on that front. Will Jones be willing to stay as a DC? Will some other team be insane enough to give him a shot as a head coach? There will be much soul-searching to do in the Hammer this winter.

PICK: Ottawa

Toronto (10-7) vs. Edmonton (6-11), Friday, October 25th, 9:30 PM EDT (TSN, CFL+): As the season winds down for the Elks, there are two significant questions that lie ahead for the offseason; who will take over on a permanent basis as the team’s head coach, and what fate befalls Tre Ford as a starting quarterback in the CFL. Jarious Jackson is 6-6 in his tenure as the interim guy following a brutal start by his predecessor, Chris Jones; but I am curious to see how much input new team owner Larry Thompson will choose to have with his football ops staff, particularly since the role of GM will also need to be filled as well. Secondly, under Chris Jones, Ford was oftentimes neglected, and seemingly only played under duress from fan pressure amidst some truly gut-wrenchingly football by the rest of the team. Tre Ford, while admittedly having had to deal with a few injuries this year, has mostly looked excellent again in the games he’s had a chance to start. While still young and continuing to develop skill in reading defences at the line of scrimmage, his running agility and speed and ability to improvise in and out of the pocket makes him a truly unique player. I still feel he absolutely deserves a chance to start somewhere; maybe under a new football ops regime he would consider re-signing with the Elks, but that’s hard to say. At any rate, he’s supposed to start this one, and it may be the last chance we get to see him in green and gold; hopefully, even with playoffs now impossible, that he can put on a show for the home fans. Toronto, meanwhile, just needs to stay healthy for the playoff drive about to begin. It wouldn’t shock me to see them sit just about everybody, but we’ll see soon whether or not the first-team offence will get to play at least a half.

PICK: Toronto

Winnipeg (10-7) vs. Montreal (12-4-1), Saturday, October 26th, 3:00 PM EDT (CTV, CFL+): If the Bombers win, they win the West; it’s as simple as that. I would expect them to play all of their starters to make this happen, as that first-round bye is such a valuable asset after such a long season of football. If the Bombers lose, they’ll also need Saskatchewan to lose in order to win the West; considering how terrible Calgary has looked in the second half of the year, it seems pretty likely that Saskatchewan will win; as such Winnipeg is going to be fighting like hell to keep their fate in their own hands. Montreal continues to be in that weird limbo of trying to balance rest versus rust, having clinched the East weeks ago; they opted to play some starters last week against BC, but really didn’t look great against a determined Lions squad. Hard to say if it’s a focus or energy issue or the sign of something more concerning at play… but it sure would give fans a chance to feel better about going into the playoffs, where anything can, and does, happen in the CFL.

PICK: Winnipeg

Calgary (4-12-1) vs. Saskatchewan (9-7-1), Saturday, October 26th, 7:00 PM EDT (TSN, CFL+): You can bet the Riders’ coaching staff will be glued to the TV to see the outcome of the Winnipeg game earlier in the afternoon; if the Bombers win, no sense playing the starters in what then becomes an ultimately meaningless game. This has been the best Saskatchewan season in many years, so while a division title sure would be nice, I’m confident that fans will also settle for a deep playoff run as a consolation prize. This is also almost certainly the end of the Dave Dickenson era in Calgary; while it has been a very successful tenure under his leadership, with seven straight playoff appearances, three division titles, three Grey Cup appearances, and one championship, all good things must come to an end. Maybe there’s an outside chance of one last win in red and black before DD shuffles off into the sunset.

PICK: Saskatchewan

BYE: BC (12-6), Edmonton (4-14), Saskatchewan (6-12)

STANDINGS AND STATS

East Division Standings

West Division Standings

x – clinched playoff spot
y – clinched division
e – eliminated from playoff contention

Passing Yards

1. Mitchell, HAM – 5026
2. Collaros, WPG – 4005
3. Bethel-Thompson, EDM – 3748

Passing TDs

1. Mitchell, HAM – 31
2. Bethel-Thompson, EDM – 24
3. Harris, SSK – 20

Rushing Yards

1. Oliveira, WPG – 1318
2. Stanback, BC – 1175
3. Carey, TOR – 1060

Receiving Yards

1. McInnis, BC – 1469
2. Hardy, OTT – 1343
3. White, HAM – 1126

Defensive Tackles

1. Beverette, MTL – 107
2. Anderson, EDM – 106
3. Morgan, EDM – 103

Sacks

1. Ceresna, TOR– 8
2. Wakefield, OTT – 8
3. Holley, TOR – 8

Interceptions

1. Milligan, SSK – 8
2. Ford, WPG – 7
3. Bynum, EDM – 5

Field Goals

1. Ward, OTT – 53
2. Hajrullahu, TOR – 52
3. Lauther, SSK – 51

PICK POOL

Well, once again, I boffed it on entering my picks, so I’m officially out of the running for this year’s pool prize. At 47 points, it’s going to take a miracle for anybody to beat Balls this year. In one week’s time, we’ll know the results of our 2024 regular season!

Remember to submit your picks here! https://www.pooltracker.com/join.asp?poolid=231808

Enjoy the games, everyone.