Well, here we are again. Welcome, everyone, to the Atlanta Falcons,

Having covered the Falcons for [DFO] since 2018, I’ve decided the time has come for an intervention. No other kind of bankruptcy is like this one. Following the Falcons, now become the rapacious creditor, bleeds me of all self-sufficiency and all will to resist their demands. Once this stark fact is accepted, my bankruptcy as a going human concern is complete.

As we all know, the first step in overcoming a problem is admitting you have a problem.

Once you’ve hit rock bottom, it’s easier to find a way back up. As the guidebook says, only through utter defeat are we able to take our first steps toward liberation and strength. Fortunately, there is no need for twelve steps; all it takes is a walk through their positions to help break the connection.

Step 1: Coaching

Step 2: Quarterback

Step 3: Running Backs

Step 4: Receivers and Tight Ends

Step 5: Front Lines

Step 6: Secondary

Step 7: Special Teams

Step 8: Ownership

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Recovery – A [DFO] Tradition

Our common welfare comes first; personal recovery depends on our unity.

Football fandom is a terrible thing. We live or die based upon factors beyond our immediate and existential control. It’s even worse when you aren’t a fan, but are ‘encouraged’ to cover a team because a vengeful demon might leave northern Ontario and remind you of obligations that fell to you one random August day.

So, with that actual fear in mind…

**gets up from keyboard**

My name is Beerguyrob, and I have a previewing problem.

Step 1: Coaching

I have been covering the Falcons for [DFO] this long:

Raheem Morris was able to get out once, but like most others in the program he was seduced back by a demon,

but we’ll cover that later.

As a defensive specialist, he’s first rate. He’s won two Super Bowls – Tampa Bay (Gruden) and the Rams (McVay) – and is credited with running tight programs that play to the strengths of the players he’s given. As a Head Coach, he’s a combined 29-47 across almost six seasons, so he’s not that great at finding talent to work alongside him. Along those lines,

• Zac Robinson – offensive coordinator – moved with Morris from the Rams
• Jeff Ulbrich – defensive coordinator – arrived in 2025 from the Jets
• Marquice Williams – special teams coordinator – since 2021

That doesn’t exactly inspire confidence. But among the (rechecks website) 30 additional coaches & coordinators listed, there are two that possibly could stand out:

Dude was a badass across twelve seasons spent with the Giants & Bucs. Never a real Number One but a solid second- or third-option, he knows how to tell guys how to get open because he knows the role. He also has the job of trying to teach them to rotate patterns between Michael Penix and Kirk Cousins, a skill he acquired trying to catch floaters from the likes of Kerry Collins, Jesse Palmer, and Luke McCown.

That’s also the photograph of someone who’s seen some shit but doesn’t want to get implicated himself. But everyone in the room knows what’s what, and step quietly around him.

He predated Morris’ hiring by a year, which tracks with the fact that he looks like he lives in the basement of the stadium. He left Alabama when Nick Saban did, which belies the fact that he’s been to a mountaintop and probably doesn’t need this shit when the season goes into the crapper. The Falcons is his first NFL gig, having coached for 13 college teams across 40 years, no doubt traveling from town to town hobo-style with a bindle and a clipboard & hoping nobody jumped his claim before he registered it with the assay office.

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Step 2: Quarterback

Excuse me for one second…

Well, now that I’ve steeled my nerves it’s time to look into this pleasant, couldn’t-possibly-go-wrong situation.

Michael Penix is penciled in as the starter, but we’ll see how long that lasts.

Raheem Morris cut bait on Kirk Cousins pretty brutally last season, so I don’t think Morris will have any compunction about yanking that lever should things start to go sideways. If he’s willing to sit a guaranteed money starter, he’s definitely willing to sit down a kid on the rookie scale that’s unable to get the ball down the field.

The team & press are saying all the right things coming out of training camp, but there’s the sneaking suspicion that there’s smoke & mirrors involved. After all, Step 2 involves the fear of losing control as someone works to put their faith in something intangible. There’s nothing coaches love more than discovering their star player has rabbit ears for what the fans are saying about him and his easily mockable last name.

That’s going to make for a long season under center if the kid can hear random comments over Raheem Morris screaming in his ear.

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Step 3: Running Back

Here, at Step 3, I will actually cultivate a positive attitude. This seems the one area where the Falcons might have their shit together. The 1-2 combo of Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier should be able to build on last year’s successes, especially if Raheem Morris starts games building around the run so that Penix (and, inevitably, Kirk Cousins) can have more time to let patterns develop downfield.

But if something bad happens to either one of them, they’re fucked.

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Step 4: Receivers & Tight Ends

Step 4 involves discovering the true nature of personal character, learning to identify the weaknesses that may have contributed to  addiction.

So, let’s just get this out of the way:

Every year it’s the same fucking thing with this guy, and that’s the trap. The prognosticators tell people that this will finally be the year Pitts lives up to the hype. He wasn’t even mentioned in LemonJello’s post about worst picks in the Lowratio draft, and all the fantasy strategy sites are using the code word “sleeper” in various forms:

• Sports Illustrated:

• Last Word on Sports:

• Bleacher Report:

• Falcons Wire: (via PFF)

It’s this last one where you see the trap that’s been laid. The whole sentence is one of the classic impediments people face in Step 4:

Continuing to justify negative behaviors and struggling to be fully honest with themselves.

This translates into football gambling as,

Because of this new thing, and if this and that happens, then possibly the thing I want might actually turn out.

That racist little dwarf is right. Drake London is for real, and Darnell Mooney had a chance to be the Falcons’ Tee Higgins. Kyle Pitts is a delusion that people talk themselves into because of the tools around him, when in actual fact his reputation as fantasy poison devalues the worth of his teammates at the same positions. It’s like how everyone loves the thought of an ice cream truck, but no one actually likes the sound, the noise, and the creepy guy patrolling the neighbourhood looking for children with disposable income. Every scintilla of evidence says he will drag down your team, but as for the gamblers…

Obviously, autodraft will pick him for me again.

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Step 5: Front Lines

Well, the offensive line looked good until last Friday, when RT Kaleb McGary “suffered a leg injury” in practice & is out for the season, and the guy who was supposed to replace him, Swing Tackle & stock movie character Storm Norton, is also hurt. Naturally, McGary had just signed a two-year extension worth $30 million, so the Falcons lack of cap space makes this situation even more dire. In Sandra Bullock terms, I have a Premonition that the Gravity of the situation is that they now have no one to block Penix’s Blind Side, meaning that When the Party’s Over whomever is starting under center is going to need Speed to survive The Heat, especially if they’re Gun Shy about getting hit.

By way of discussing the defence, I’d like to introduce this fine bit of rationalization and coping from the devotees at The Falcoholic:

With Jeff Ulbrich on board as a veteran defensive coordinator and Zac Robinson in year two, the Falcons have signaled they’re willing—even eager—to prize youth and upside over proven veteran ability. [Morgan] Fox was given a decent chunk of guaranteed change to join Atlanta, but the team is willing to burn that money because they didn’t feel like Fox was going to offer as much as, say, a Ta’Quon Graham, a LaCale London, or even maybe a Simeon Barrow. While the Falcons are out that guaranteed $3 million, which is far from ideal for a team facing a cap crunch in the coming years, we have long asked the Falcons not to keep guys around simply because they have experience, a contract, or are coaching staff favorites.

If that doesn’t sound like “they’re gonna suck now, but it’ll pay off in the future!” levels of lying to yourself, then someone’s going to have to take away their chip.

All else you need to know about how this will likely go is that their one consistent Pro Bowler, Grady Jarrett, fucked right off and signed with the Bears.

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Step 6: Secondary

Step 6 involves letting go of character flaws and negative behaviours. But it’s hard to say something is “bleak” when it doesn’t even register in the analysis to be considered, and this epitomizes the Falcons secondary. ESPN has the Falcons outside the Top-16 in every defensive category, but they aren’t so bad they are discussed about being “the worst”. PFF has them equally ranked, at 17th, and has given them the fewest comments probably allowed by management. (I’ve written more on report cards.) Yahoo’s Fantasy Rankings has them at 23rd, but doesn’t have any explanation as to why because they are just a content mill. Finally, and explicitly last, is Bill Simmons’ exercise in self-aggrandizement site. They have the Falcons at 29th, and for some reason the picture they’ve chosen is retired QB Matt Ryan in civvies speaking with defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich.

I’m going to say that everything will be cromulent, and that a couple of deep balls will be blamed for losses that a more competent offence should have been able to overcome.

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Step 7: Special Teams

As long as Younghoe Koo keeps making kicks, Arthur Blank won’t be calling ICE after the game to help with the salary cap by removing this shortcoming.

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Step 8: Ownership

Again with this guy,

The only positive thing I can say about Arthur Blank, aside from the narcolepsy that keeps him from becoming Jerry Jones, is that he again is pioneering the move towards affordable food options at the stadium. It’s his form of apology for what has befallen the team, and as part of Step 8 is his attempt to make amends for what has been put on the field ever since that fateful February day.

But we can all see how fake this is, right? I hardly think the Jets or Patriots would ever drop the price of a hot dog just to lure people back into a stadium. Hell, the Patriots’ own fans are actively trying to shoo other family members from falling into the same trap they did. It’s hardly shame or guilt which has led Blank to this. No; he is trying to keep the addicts hooked on the product. He hasn’t dropped the price of the tickets, just the cost of the secondary accoutrements which accompany the gameday experience.

Conclusions:

Where does this leave the Falcons for the 2025 season? Well, I’ll let the haters at The Falcoholic spin the FanDuel odds in their own way:

As a better man than me put it elsewhere on this here site, the division is somewhat up for grabs, and the pursuit of “meh” might be enough to win the division. They’ll go 10-7 if Penix starts 80% of the games, but 7-10 if they panic and start the alternating system with Cousins.

As for myself,

Aww fuck. Where’s my chip?

Tomorrow’s a new day.