Hello everyone, I’m Warthog, you may remember me for such posts as… nope, nothing to remember me for. I mostly lurk, which is probably for the best. I’ll skip the history lesson this time and get straight to the hard hitting analysis of the upcoming season for the Dolphins. Uhm… yeah. But first, some background music for this dreck.

[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y4sMSSm0x2A]

Get well soon Leon. And now a disclaimer. I. Fucking. Hate. Florida.

My family moved there in 1972. I left them all 10 years later. As a youngster, South Florida was pretty great. Lots of fun to be had everywhere, but as I got older I began to realize I was surrounded by assholes.

I thought it might be me, but I began to realize it was them. Don’t get me wrong, I’m a jerk through and through, but those folks there would have Gandhi hitting the meth and heading to the gun shop. So now I live elsewhere and I and the people around me are much happier for it. Florida’s revenge? My time down there was formative in my fandom and I’m a Dolphins fan. Dolfan? No thanks.

So what’s new with the Dolphins? Depends what you’re looking for. They have a new coaching staff. Adam Gase is the 9th head coach the Dolphins have had since 2000. 

The front office also traded for a couple Eagles (LB Kiko Alonso and CB Byron Maxwell) who may not have lived up to expectations, but will now reach their full potential as Dolphins and be out of the league in two years. They also brought in a couple low cost, aging free agents who are either slightly broken (Arian Foster) or considered underperforming (Mario Williams). In the draft the Dolphins addressed their offensive offensive line, picking up OT Laremy Tunsil after he dropped due to “concerns.” The Dolphins probably figured it worked out with Marino, so why not try again?

What’s not new? Everything else. On offense Ryan Tannehill remains an okay QB with a young, but pretty good receiving corps. Gase was brought in for his abilities as quarterback whisperer and maybe he can elevate Tannehill’s performance above mediocre, but first he’ll need to lift Tannehill off the turf where he spends quite a bit of time. (A league leading 184 sacks during his four years as a starter.)

The top goal for Gase and Tannehill will be getting the ball to DeVante Parker.  After starting on the IR (a rookie tradition in Miami) Parker demonstrated some flash and if Tannehill can get the ball to him, the Dolphins may have a deep threat that will open the field a bit, but Tannehill’s ability to reach downfield remains in question. Just ask Mike Wallace. Or better yet, don’t. Jarvis Landry is Tannehill’s favorite target and is an excellent short yardage receiver who essentially serves as the running game the Dolphins don’t have. In the backfield with Tannehill, though not all at the same time, will be Arian Foster, Jay J. Ajayi (not really sure what his middle initial is, but it needs to be J), Damien Williams,  Kenyan Drake, Isaiah Pead, and former, now current, soon to be former Dolphin Daniel Thomas. Who? Exactly.

Pead has been impressive in the preseason, but he may just be gunning for the J.R. Tolver award (hat tip to the late, lamented Fins Nation site), given annually to the Dolphin’s player who shines in the preseason only to disappear once the games actually count. Supposedly Arian Foster was a pretty good running back, but I couldn’t find anything about the team he played for. Anyhow, Foster is recovering from a torn Achilles, and if all goes well, he might be productive. If not, Ajayi could prove to be the workhorse, but don’t look for any thousand yard rushers here, especially behind a line that ranked last in run blocking. Speaking of the line, you may have noted that it isn’t good at pass blocking or run blocking. The hope this year is that through the draft and free agent pick ups, the line can achieve something close to adequacy. It’s good to have dreams, though recurrent injuries to Mike Pouncey (hip) and Brandon Albert (knee) don’t bode well.

Over on defense…

The past few years, the strength of the Dolphins has been the D Line. At least on paper. On the field last year, that strength failed to produce results. The Dolphins were near the bottom in stopping the run (28th), stopping the pass (21st), and stopping teams on third down (28th). Ndamukong Suh, Cameron Wake, and now Williams could be a formidable lineup on the front line if they all show up to play on the same day. If they don’t, the linebackers and secondary will be under even greater pressure to perform adequately, which hasn’t been a hallmark of theirs. The one genuine player in the secondary, Brent Grimes, was cut and now the Dolphins are pinning their hopes on first and second year players, including a rookie who is currently recovering from surgery (Tradition!).

So what’s the outlook for the Dolphins? Not hard to figure. Since 2000 the Dolphins are 121-135 with 3 playoff appearances (2 of them in 2000 & 2001, the last in 2008). This works out to a 7-9 average, which seems a high bar for this year’s team.

Given a schedule that has the Dolphins playing the AFC North and NFC West (including three trips to the left coast) they’ll be hard pressed to come up with 5 wins. In the first 4 games, the Dolphins are on the road against the Seahawks, Patriots, and Bengals. While I don’t think a 1-3 or 0-4 start will get Gase fired like it did Philbin/Lurch last year, it will be a challenge for a rookie coach to keep a young team motivated and things may go sour quickly, especially if Suh starts grumbling like he did last year. I’m seeing 4-12 and looking for improvement in the last part of the season that might lead to a fifth win and allow Gase to keep his job for another year.

tl:dr version:

Dolphins football: Worst in AFC East

Dolphins cheerleaders: Best in AFC East, playoff contender

Thanks for reading. I’ll now return to lurking.