Good morning, and welcome to a delayed edition of DFO Radio.  Last week’s topic was “chatter” and since I was off gallivanting in London I wasn’t around to post it on Monday as is typical.  I was actually home yesterday, but I didn’t have much of anything to say on the subject of rumors and innuendo that was the week’s topic.  But now I do!

Last night Rachel Maddow shared with the world a leaked copy of one of Donald Trump’s tax returns.  I’m convinced that Trump leaked it himself.

To begin with, it simply showed up in the mailbox of David Cay Johnston, a longtime Trump critic.  There was no suggestion of where it might have come from, save for a stamped “Client Copy” on the second page.  Now of course this isn’t particularly persuasive (Dan Rather’s debacle in 2004 showed how dangerous it can be to simply trust documents without verification) but fortunately for MSNBC, the White House conveniently confirmed the numbers the document showed prior to their reveal in the broadcast.  Johnston himself was skeptical of their origin, pointing out that Trump has been known to leak documents himself.

So why would I think that Trump would leak these documents himself?  The first clue is that the documents don’t actually show very much of interest, and very little that’s actually negative.  2005 was a long time ago.  The Trumps’ tax rate was obscenely low – just $5 million on an income of $153 million – but they were forced to cough up $31 million thanks to the Alternative Minimum Tax (something Trump is eager to abolish).  Of the $153 million in income, $103 was written off as losses (possibly a fraction of the $916 loss declared in 1995, which could be carried over for up to 18 years).  It’s not particularly embarrassing to have declared $153 million in income, although the amount suggests Trump’s net worth was considerably less than what he was claiming at that time.  But that’s about it.  He made a lot of money, and paid (presumably) the appropriate amount of taxes according to U.S. tax law.  There’s nothing terribly scandalous in that.

The second clue is that the documents don’t actual contain very much in the way of details.  The documents only include a two page summary of numbers.  Trump’s income consisted of $67 million in real estate royalties, $42 million in business income, and $32 million in capital gains, but there’s no details as to specifically what these sources were.  Is it from selling ties?  Renting office space to the Kremlin?  Who knows!

What’s more important than what the tax documents contain (since they contain so little), is the timing of their release.  Take a look at Trump’s current approval rating as of March 13 (this would be after it was revealed that former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn was literally in the employ of the Turkish government when appointed, but before much of the fallout from the disastrous CBO score for Trumpcare would be reflected in the polling):

That’s close to as bad as it’s ever been, and it looks like it’s getting worse in a hurry.  If the White House wants to dissociate its own image with that of the frighteningly unpopular changes to health care championed by congressional Republicans, it needs a distraction, and it needs one now.  Unfortunately for Trump, I don’t know if it’s going to work.  The tax documents simply aren’t juicy enough to warrant much discussion.  It’s like the time he went on the Dr. Oz show and “released” medical records that showed he had unusually high testosterone levels.  It’s transparently self-serving.  At the end of the day, this “leak” might help the die-hard supporters dig their heels in a little deeper in their belief that the media is conspiring against Trump, but the rest of us are left scratching our heads – if this is the kind of information is all that’s to be found in Trump’s tax returns, why on earth has he been so resistant to their release?

Anyhow, enough soapboxing.  On to the music.  Here’s the Spotify link for those who are interested.