As promised last week, this week we have the big preview of all 18 teams.  On top of that, there is the preview of the AFL Women’s Grand Final as the Brisbane Lions will host…. someone.  There is a lot to cover.  Let’s get right to it!

Welcome to Balls of Steel’s AFL Beat!

They say the start of the season is like the start of a new romantic relationship.  It’s always so full of hope and the expectation of good times ahead.  Could this possibly be The One?  Alas,

Like most new relationships, each team’s season will fizzle out in one way or another.  It can be a spectacular disaster like the Brisbane Lions/Cleveland Browns or it can be something ruined by a holiday trip to meet the potential inlaws (North Melbourne Kangaroos/Dallas Cowboys).

Let’s review how each team did last year:

And now, without further ado, here is the outlook for each team in reverse order of how they finished last year:

Team: Essendon Bombers

2016 Finish: 18th Wooden Spooners

Reason for 2016 Finish: The Essendon 34.  Seriously, you deplete half your roster, you’re gonna have a bad time.

Direction the Arrow is Pointing for 2017: Definitely UP

Why?: The players that missed all of last year due to suspension are back.  Last year gave Orazio Fantasia and a few other young players the opportunity to shine and get experience and that should pay dividends this year.

Potential Pitfalls:  It’s going to take a while for the players to get used to playing together. It is a big change in personnel from last year. If they can jell quickly, the team can improve greatly.

2017 Predicted Finish:  Mid-pack.  Definitely not Finals material yet.  Let’s call it 12th place.

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Team: Brisbane Lions

2016 Finish: 17th

Reason for 2016 Finish: The Lions were lucky that Essendon had half their team on suspension.

Direction the Arrow is Pointing for 2017: Down

Why?: Essendon is getting its players back.  The Lions fired their coach and are starting fresh.

Potential Pitfalls:  It’s very difficult to change coaches and move dramatically up the ladder.  It’s going to take some time to rebuild.  Unfortunately, it seems like Brisbane has been rebuilding forever.

2017 Predicted Finish:  18th, Wooden Spooners

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Team: Fremantle Dockers

2016 Finish: 16th

Reason for 2016 Finish: The Dockers lost superstar Nat Fyfe for the year early on. The loss of one player should not have caused such a dramatic drop, however, which led to fans, players, and media questioning the coach, Ross Lyon.  This led to Lyon “cleaning house” and reasserting himself as the top dog.  The Dockers responded with late wins last year to avoid the Wooden Spoon.

Direction the Arrow is Pointing for 2017: Up

Why?: Nat Fyfe is back and seemingly in great shape.  The house-cleaning of last year left only players that were ready to buy into Lyon’s program.

Potential Pitfalls:  If Fyfe reinjures himself, the Dockers are toast and it could be 2016 all over again.  In that case, Lyon might not survive this time.

2017 Predicted Finish:  Midpack. The Dockers will be much better, but I’m not sure about finals.  Call it 13th.

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Team: Gold Coast Suns

2016 Finish: 15th

Reason for 2016 Finish: Injuries. Lack of Leadership. Injuries. Team Turmoil. Injuries.

Direction the Arrow is Pointing for 2017: Down

Why?: The Suns have gone through a LOT and none of what I’ve read sounds good.  It seems no one knows what they are doing in that organization.

Potential Pitfalls:  The whole season looks like a pitfall.

2017 Predicted Finish:  They will seriously challenge Brisbane for the Wooden Spoon.  Call it 17th.

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Team: Carlton Blues

2016 Finish: 14th

Reason for 2016 Finish: The Blues had a horrendous 2016.  The bad part is that it wasn’t due to injuries, just overall bad play.

Direction the Arrow is Pointing for 2017: Down

Why?: The preseason is, I understand, for practice and getting some fresh faces in the lineup.  The Blues looked really bad in all three preseason games.

Potential Pitfalls:  It’s easier to list potential good things that can happen rather than pitfalls.  The Blues need to really improve in order to not fall further behind everyone else

2017 Predicted Finish:  16th

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Team: Richmond Tigers

2016 Finish: 13th

Reason for 2016 Finish: The Tigers were simply not good enough.  Their finish was clearly indicative of where they ranked.

Direction the Arrow is Pointing for 2017:  Up

Why?: The Tigers have looked a lot better in preseason.

Potential Pitfalls:  The preseason performance may be deceptive and the Tigers’ true colors could shine in the regular season.

2017 Predicted Finish:  I have this as a coin-toss between the Tigers and the Magpies for the 8th spot.  Heads it’s the Tigers, tails it’s the Pies.  Tails never fails.  Let’s call it 9th.

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Team: Collingwood Magpies

2016 Finish: 12th

Reason for 2016 Finish: The Pies started the season poorly and had to claw their way back to respectability.  By the time the season ended, it was too much to overcome.

Direction the Arrow is Pointing for 2017: Up

Why?: Similarly to Richmond, the team has looked good in preseason.  They, like Richmond, look set to make the leap into the Eight.

Potential Pitfalls:  The preseason is a mirage and no one should pay attention to it.

2017 Predicted Finish:  The coin has spoken.  Call it 8th.

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Team: Melbourne Demons

2016 Finish: 11th

Reason for 2016 Finish: The Demons were consistently just barely outside the Eight thanks to strong play from their star Jesse Hogan.  They needed another star to get them over the hump.

Direction the Arrow is Pointing for 2017: Down

Why?: The Demons didn’t get another star.  Jack Viney is supposed to be the next star in the Demons’ lineup, but he needs to demonstrate that on a daily basis.

Potential Pitfalls:  Too much is placed on Jesse Hogan and the rest of the team doesn’t raise their games.

2017 Predicted Finish:  Lower mid-pack.  The Demons will not be as good as last year.  Call it 14th.

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Team: Port Adelaide Power

2016 Finish: 10th

Reason for 2016 Finish: The team was frustratingly consistent at being inconsistent.  For two years running, it’s been the same thing:  Lots of promise, good performances, shitty performances, a rebound, a dropoff, a surge of efficiency once eliminated, and a finish outside the Eight.

Direction the Arrow is Pointing for 2017: Down

Why?: Have you seen the movie Groundhog Day?

Potential Pitfalls:  Until the Power can break the pattern they are in, I have no reason to move them from their usual mid-table-and-out-of-the-Eight spot

2017 Predicted Finish:  Call it 11th.

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Team: St. Kilda Saints

2016 Finish: 9th

Reason for 2016 Finish: The Saints came on strong at the end of the year but were just a little too far behind to get into the Eight.

Direction the Arrow is Pointing for 2017: Up

Why?: This is the year.  The Saints have been building for some time and this is the year they break through.  Last year’s finish was a portent of things to come.  Nothing in the preseason has shown me that this team is not ready to make the leap.

Potential Pitfalls:  It could all fall apart, of course.  The team could suffer devastatingly close losses and lose faith and confidence.  A strong start to the season will be the key.

2017 Predicted Finish:  7th

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Team: North Melbourne Kangaroos

2016 Finish: 8th

Reason for 2016 Finish: The Roos started the season very well but then crashed down to earth after Round 12.  They hung on to the last spot, but just barely and then promptly exited finals in the first game.

Direction the Arrow is Pointing for 2017: Down. Way down.

Why?: The Roos basically purged their roster of all older players and are now one of the youngest teams in the competition.  This is good for the future, but the present is going to hurt.

Potential Pitfalls:  It’s going to take a while for the players to get used to playing together and to develop chemistry.  The lack of leadership could also impact how quickly the team comes together.

2017 Predicted Finish:  Most people are anticipating a big drop.  I’m not quite sure the Roos are Wooden Spoon material yet, but they will not go to finals.  Let’s call it 15th.

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Team: Western Bulldogs

2016 Finish: 7th but won the Grand Final

Reason for 2016 Finish: The Doggies started playing well at the right time.  They were the stereotypical team that got hot at the end that no one wanted to face.

Direction the Arrow is Pointing for 2017: Um, sideways?  You can’t go higher than winning the championship.  At the same time, the Bulldogs did finish the regular season 7th.  They will be back in finals for sure, but I doubt they will climb all the way to 1st in the ladder at the end of the Home and Away season.

Why?: Last year’s success was completely unexpected, though it had been building.  Now that the championship has been won, will the team have the hunger for another one?  This is unknown territory for the Doggies.

Potential Pitfalls:  Laziness and self-satisfaction.  Western will also, as the reigning champions, have a bullseye on their backs.  Every team will be playing extra hard to knock them down to earth.

2017 Predicted Finish:  Definitely in the finals.  Probably not first.  Call it 4th.

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Team: West Coast Eagles

2016 Finish: 6th

Reason for 2016 Finish: The Eagles had a great combination in Nic Naitanui and Josh Kennedy.  Then Nic got hurt and the Eagles’ season fell apart.

Direction the Arrow is Pointing for 2017: Down

Why?: Naitanui is still hurt and will miss most, if not all, of the 2017 season.

Potential Pitfalls:  How do you replace a superstar?  Fremantle certainly could not.

2017 Predicted Finish:  Mid-pack and out of the Eight.  Call it 10th.

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Team: Adelaide Crows

2016 Finish: 5th

Reason for 2016 Finish: The Crows had consistent play from all their stars.  A last round loss dropped them from 2nd to 5th, but they were good all year.

Direction the Arrow is Pointing for 2017: Down, but just barely.

Why?: Father Time takes no prisoners.  The Crows should be good again, definitely in the Eight, but younger and sexier teams are on the rise.

Potential Pitfalls:  The Crows have been lucky about not having any players with significant injuries.  Hopefully, this trend continues.

2017 Predicted Finish:  A slight drop to 6th.

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Team: Greater Western Sydney Giants

2016 Finish: 4th

Reason for 2016 Finish: The addition of Steve “Stevie J” Johnson from the Geelong Cats brought some much needed leadership to the young Giants. This helped a team that was not expected to contend until this year to get into finals and learn from the experience

Direction the Arrow is Pointing for 2017: Up

Why?: Last year’s finals experience should help this team improve even more.  From what I saw of them in the preseason, this team has the potential to be scary good.

Potential Pitfalls:  Injuries are always a concern, but this team does not rely on superstars so only widespread injuries Gold Coast Suns-style should derail this team.

2017 Predicted Finish:  This team looked really good in preseason.  I know it doesn’t mean much, but they seemed primed for another top four finish.  Call it an incremental improvement to 2nd and look for them to make some noise in finals.

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Team: Hawthorn Hawks

2016 Finish: 3rd

Reason for 2016 Finish: The Hawks have been getting older for a few years now.  Time started catching up to them last year.  By the time finals came around, that extra gear that they usually found wasn’t there and they crashed out after two losses.  Granted, the Geelong loss could have easily been a win if the kick after the siren had gone through.  It didn’t.

Direction the Arrow is Pointing for 2017: Down.

Why?: The Hawks made some moves in the offseason to try to get younger and they get Jarryd Roughead back after a cancer scare, but it will take time for the new players to get accustomed to the Hawks’ system.

Potential Pitfalls:  If the new players don’t mesh and the stress of not matching previous success gets to them, the team could be headed for a North Melbourne-like fall.

2017 Predicted Finish:  I don’t think the Hawks will fall too far.  I say they stay in the Eight.  Call it 5th.

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Team: Geelong Cats

2016 Finish: 2nd

Reason for 2016 Finish: The trade that brought Patrick Dangerfield to Geelong.

Direction the Arrow is Pointing for 2017: Down

Why?: The Cats added some new faces and some old ones retired.  The problem for the Cats last year and, from what I’ve seen of the preseason this year, is consistency.

Potential Pitfalls:  The lack of consistency has hurt this team tremendously.  They can look really good and then look extremely average.  Within the same game.  That has to be fixed in order for them to do anything.

2017 Predicted Finish:  The Cats will not finish 2nd again.  I’m looking at them to fall but still stay in the top four.  Call it 3rd.

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Team: Sydney Swans

2016 Finish: 1st

Reason for 2016 Finish: The Swans were consistenly good last year and by all rights were the favorites in the Grand Final.  Unfortunately for them, they ran into the buzzsaw that was the Western Bulldogs.

Direction the Arrow is Pointing for 2017: Sideways.  You can’t go higher than #1

Why?: The Swans return essentially the same team as last year except the young team from last year now has a year of finals experience.

Potential Pitfalls:  It’s hard to see much derailing the Swans this year.  They are the odds-on favorites this year.

2017 Predicted Finish:  #1 in the Home and Away season.  Once you get into finals, as the Swans know, anything can happen.

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AFL Women’s Round 7

The very first game of the final Round was perhaps the most important.  After all,  the result of the Melbourne – Fremantle match would determine pretty much everything.  A loss by Melbourne would virtually assure Adelaide of going to the Grand Final even if they lost to Collingwood.  A win would make it so the Crows would HAVE to win.  A BIG win would mean that a loss to the Pies would put the Crows in serious jeopardy of losing out.

Well,  the Demons got the big win they needed, to the tune of a 70-16 thrashing. It was a blowout from the beginning as the Dockers were behind by three goals at Quarter Time and were held goal-less the rest of the game.

Here is the highlight package:

The next match was way too late for my ass and it was the Wooden Spoon decider between Western and GWS.

You know,  it may or may not be a coincidence,  but ever since I declared my love for the Lions as my favorite AFL Women’s team and made the Giants second favourites, GWS has lost all their games in horrible fashion.  They are just not the same team.

Therefore,  I decided to just look up the score before committing to watching the whole match.  I was right in doing so as I avoided watching the Wooden Spoon get handed

by Western to the Giants by 52-20.

Here is the highlight package:

Thankfully,  the two final games of the Round were on at a decent hour on North American Saturday night. I was able to watch them both live.

The first one was the most crucial as the Adelaide Crows were visiting the resurgent Collingwood Magpies in Melbourne.

It was a close game for three quarters with the Pies actually ahead at Three Quarter Time and then the Crows took over and ended the suspense.  The final result was a 70-46 win that assured a rematch with the Lions for the title.

Here are the match highlights:

The last one was worth watching because,  despite my expectations,  the Lions did NOT rest their stars. This may have bitten them in the butt as star defender Nicole Hildebrand injured her knee going up for a ball in the fourth.  It remains to be seen if she will be available for the Grand Final.

To add insult to injury,  the Blues came back from a big deficit in the fourth to tie the game. That’s how it ended,  in a 37-all tie.  On the bright side,  Brisbane and the Curse of Hippo remain undefeated.

Here are some match highlights:

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AFL Women’s Grand Final Preview

Brisbane Lions v Adelaide Crows

Friday, March 24, 2017 8:00 PM Pacific at Metricon Stadium

What can I say that is unbiased? The Lions have become my favorite team,  so obviously I’d like for them to win.  Nothing has been easy for the Lions, though,  and I expect this match to be close again. If Hildebrand is out,  I actually think the Crows will take it.  Either way,  I highly encourage everyone to watch this game from start to finish on the app without knowing the score.  It is sure to be a thriller.

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AFL Round 1 Preview

Here is this week’s schedule with some commentary on each game (all times Pacific):

 Thursday,  March 23, 2017

1:20 AM, Carlton Blues v Richmond Tigers at the MCG

The traditional curtain raiser will still have a big crowd despite not having a very attractive matchup on the field.  Look for Richmond to either confirm or refute the expectations placed on them for this year as they should beat the Blues

Friday,  March 24, 2017

 1:50 AM Collingwood Magpies v Western Bulldogs at the MCG

The Doggies begin their title defence against one of the teams expected to contend for finals this year.  This may be too tall an order for the Pies as Western will want to look good in their first game as reigning champs.

10:35 PM St. Kilda Saints v Melbourne Demons at the Etihad

This the battle of the two “up and coming” teams in the competition.  This game will basically decide whether I was right to pick the Saints to get into the Eight and NOT the Demons.

10:35 PM Sydney Swans v Port Adelaide Power at the SCG

The Swans get a nice opponent for their opening match at home.  Even on their best days,  the Power are not exactly road warriors,  so we’ll see if they can hang with the Swans.

 Saturday,  March 25, 2017

1:25 AM Essendon Bombers v Hawthorn Hawks at the MCG

It’s technically a home game for the Bombers,  but the Hawks also call the MCG home,  so there goes home-field advantage! The Bombers need everything they can get to stay with the Hawks. One positive for Essendon is that Hawthorn are traditionally slow starters.

2:05 AM Gold Coast Suns v Brisbane Lions at Metricon Stadium

This,  as amazing as it sounds,  is the Wooden Spoon decider.  Seriously,  whoever loses this game is in a heap of trouble for the rest of the year.

 7:10 PM North Melbourne Kangaroos v West Coast Eagles at the Etihad

The Roos get the Eagles at home,  which should help, but it remains to be seen if that will be enough.  Of course, West Coast have to demonstrate there is life after Nic.

9:20 PM Adelaide Crows v GWS Giants at Adelaide Oval

The Crows get the Giants at home,  but it is still a difficult matchup.  If the Giants can win this one,  they will show they are legitimate title contenders.

Sunday,  March 26, 2017

1:40 AM Fremantle Dockers v Geelong Cats at Domain Stadium

Seriously? I have to watch the first game of the season on delay on Sunday morning and then write the AFL Beat??? This seems as good a time as any to announce that the AFL Beat will move to Mondays this year!

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AFL Footy Tipping Contest

This is my last chance to pimp the AFL Footy Tipping Contest that we did last year and are doing again this year.  It was really a lot of fun and, as I mentioned before, I will provide a nice prize to the winner if we can get to 15 people.

As you may remember, Litre_cola was nice enough to set up a contest last year in which we make picks as to who will win each AFL game straight up. As a tiebreaking procedure, you must also choose the winning margin for one game each week. It runs the entire season and culminates in the Grand Final.

Since we have a few new fans, this is another great way for you to get into the game and learn more about it and the league as a whole.  It’s on the ESPN Australia site and is, of course, free.  The link to the group is here:

http://hosted.mobile.footytips.com.au/competitions/?ff=settings&competitionId=401652

We’re currently at 10 members.  I pledge to you that if we can get to 15 members, I will offer a prize along the lines of what we have previously done at DFO for the NFL picks competitions.  The more the merrier, so join the fun!

Now,  the season starts this week,  so join in and DON’T FORGET TO PUT YOUR TIPS IN!!

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That’s all for this week.  I am SUPER excited for this year of AFL. I’m also really happy that AFL Women’s has succeeded and that the footy was on such good quality.

Next week,  we’ll toast to a new AFL Women’s champion,  review the Round 1 results,  and look forward to Round 2. See you next Monday!