Hey all. I have made many adjustments to this article over the course of the week. Here is the latest version, which, DISCLAIMER, very well could be obsolete by the time you read it:

We got some interesting slates this weekend. You can play the traditional Sunday slate, the Saturday only slate (spoiler alert, the Saturday slate has been removed), the Saturday through Monday slate, Sunday early only, Sunday through Monday, etc. It’s wild. As of this writing there are no contests set up for both games on Monday and both games on Tuesday, but I’m sure there will be. I’ve decided to leave everything I have written about the players and games for those Saturday contests in case they are helpful, but just be aware that everything could change depending on who is or who is not cleared from the Covid lists.

Let’s get into it.

The Slate Formerly Known as Saturday

Las Vegas Raiders (6-7) vs. Cleveland Browns (7-6) now on Monday night at 5 PM Eastern

Raiders: -3.5

O/U: 38

This game opened with the Browns -6 and the O/U at 42.5. Why the drastic change? Well, everyone and their mother got put on the C19 list for Cleveland.

The Browns may or may not be without Baker Mayfield, so Case Keenum…no wait he’s got the Rona too, Nick Mullens – $4000 could get the start. While Mullens is being elevated form the practice squad, the real problem here is that both LT Wills and RG Teller, one of the best guards in the league, could be out. These are huge losses for the Browns offensive line as they already have RT Conklin on IR. These guys are the reason why the Browns have such a good run game, and as such, that run game should be downgraded for the Browns if they miss. The Browns may also be minus Landry, Hooper, and several players on the defensive side of the ball. So ultimately, I am not sure what Cleveland is going to do on offense as it really depends on who is in. Nik Chubb – $7800 is still going to play, but if multiple guys are out for Cleveland, I would just stack the box against the Browns if I were Vegas, which teams were already doing anyway. It’s a tough call as to what Cleveland will do at WR, so I think getting a piece of all their WRs is probably wise, but RB Demetric Felton – $4000 could easily be their WR2 this week.

Over on the Raider side, I expected Derek Carr – $6400 to be the chalk QB on Saturday, which I didn’t like and am now thankful that I don’t have to deal with. The Raider passing game has not been strong of late and have only had time for Hunter Renfrow – $7300. Josh Jacobs – $6600 is definitely in play for me here. Last week his early fumble resulted in a scoop 6 for KC and that was basically all she wrote in terms of Jacobs’s fantasy usefulness. I am not a believer in the same thing happening twice, so I’ll go right back to this spot in a situation where it makes a ton of sense for the Raiders to bore the shit out of everyone with defense and a slow plodding run game. Jacobs is still getting a ton of snaps with Drake on IR.

New England Patriots (9 – 4) vs Indianapolis Colts (7 – 6)

Colts: -2

O/U: 46

I know folks might see the Bruins sticker next to my name and assume I’m a New England homer; I am not.

However, I think the Pats limit Jonathan Taylor – $9200, Carson Wentz – $6000, and Michael Pittman – $5900 tonight. That being said, Taylor can find himself in some short yardage situations and push the ball into the endzone, but the New England Patriots – $3400 defense was my favorite play on the slate, in a showdown scenario, which this now is, a defense is not my favorite play. If I were to pick someone from the Colts, it would definitely be Taylor who has gone for over 100 total yards in every game since week 3. The Colts have 73 redzone rushing opportunities this year, which is 32! more than any other team. If you think Taylor gets limited, or the Colts play from behind, then Naheem Hines – $4000 becomes a possibility. Pittman meanwhile is going up against CB Jackson, who is having a breakout season this year and has been limiting opposing receivers in shadow coverage. I love me some Pittman, but not this week. Any other Colts pass catcher is in play, but I’d be lying if I said I knew which one, if any, will catch a TD tonight.

I do not think the Patriots run the ball on every single play again, but I do think Rhamondre Stevenson – $4900 is quite capable with Damien Harris out. For their pass catchers, I think they are all in play, but the guys I am interested in are their redzone targets: Kendrick Bourne – $5300 and Hunter Henry – $4200, but Jakobi Meyers – $5100 is the player to get if you think the Pats have pass volume in this game. Nelson Algholor – $3500 is a lower owned option who has more targets than Bourne, will be lesser owned, and is less reliant on redzone targets.

Sunday and What is Hopefully Left of It

Stacks 

Dak Prescott – $6500 with 2 pass catchers

Dak typically slays the Gmen, sorry Jimmy. Dak hasn’t been running as much as in the past, so I would recommend stacking him with 2 of his guys. Cooper – $6400 will likely get CB Bradberry this week, but as stated a week ago, he has not been as good this season. Gallup – $5500 will get CB Robinson, who is filling in for injured CB Jackson. Robinson has allowed 9 of 12 targets to be completed in his 2 weeks of relief. Gallup is averaging 8 targets a game over his last few. With a fully armed and operational set of WRs, Lamb – $7400 returns to the slot where he tears up from. It wouldn’t surprise me if one of these guys has a day, just determining which one is the difficult part. A way to get different is to stack Dak with Zeke Elliot – $7300 as well as one of his WRs.

If you did want to run this back on the other side, then Saquon Barkley – $6500 is still the guy for me.

Jimmy G – $5800 with 1 or 2 pass catchers and a run back from Atlanta

This is less about Jimmy G and more about Atlanta, who cannot stop the pass nor the run as they are bottom 10 in the league in both. Eli Mitchell is going to miss again and therefore Deebo Samuel – $8200 is essentially the RB1 because SF doesn’t trust Wilson or Hasty. I am mildly concerned about Deebo’s lack of targets, and that he has still been giving time away to other backs. This has also been what has helped George Kittle – $7300 as he is now the primary weapon in the passing game. That being said, at any point Deebo could begin to be featured in the passing game. It’s tough to get here, but the matchup is nice. Brandon Aiyuk – $6300 is also in play.

For an Atlanta run back, I humbly submit Russell Gage – $5800 who is averaging 6.5 catches a game and a 27% target share over the last month. The 49ers secondary is allowing the 11th most fantasy point per game to slot receivers over that period as well. Slot CB Williams has allowed an 81% catch rate this season and is giving up the 8th most receptions among all slot CBs. Cordarelle Patterson – $6900 is priced up a bit for someone who is seeing less and less targets. In the meantime, Mike Davis – $5100 has been seeing more carries and more passing game work.

Tua – $5700 with 1 or 2 pass catchers as I am not all that interested in stacking this game.

I like attacking the Jets secondary, but I have two problems with this play. 1 – I doubt the Jets ability to make this a game, and 2 – it actually looks like Tua is going to carry some ownership. I’m not crazy about playing a high owned Tua. Perhaps the move here might just be to play one of Miami’s pass catchers. Jaylen Waddle – $6600 is definitely in play unless he misses the game due to being on the Covid list. DeVante Parker – $4300, an outside WR, is going up against CBs Hall and Echols. Hall is allowing a 111.4 QB Rating when targeted and Echols is Pro Football Focus’s 119th ranked CB….out of 119. When he plays, Parker is averaging 8 targets a game. A 100 yard game is in play here. Albert Wilson – $3400 will be someone I have interest in if Waddle misses.

Big Ben – $5600 with 1 maybe 2 pass catchers as I am not all that interested in stacking this game either.

3 of the last 4 games, Ben has returned some nice value compared to his price. Tennessee comes in using a lot of Cover 4, and Ben has done well against that in the past, one of the best QBs over the last decade actually. With him playing better, and getting an advantageous matchup, I am comfortable going here. The obvious pairing is Diontae Johnson – $7500. It took this guy like 2 years to finally get priced out of the 6K range. The Titans secondary is giving up the 2nd most fantasy points per game to receivers this season. DJ will go up against CBs Fulton and Jenkins. Fulton has been decent, but Jenkins, who’s allowing a 70% catch rate, is what the kids like to refer to as ‘dust.’ DJ has a 31% target share and continues to have one of the safest floors in football. Claypool – $5900 and Freiermuth – $4500 would be an add on here.

Trevor Lawrence – $5100 with 1, maybe 2 of his pass catchers

First off, doesn’t this guy look like an older version of Sunshine from Remember the Titans?

James Robinson – $6300 has gone from incredibly low owned in DFS and completely under-utilized in the Jacksonville offense to the likely chalk at RB this week. He will definitely be chalk in cash games. New interim HC Bevell has come out and said that Robinson is their RB1 and will be treated as such. Additionally, Carlos Hyde is out for this game (and Urban isn’t there to give his former Ohio State RB all the touches). Bevell traditionally runs a power rush scheme that features 1 RB (Marshawn Lynch in Seattle). I don’t think Robinson fits a power rush scheme, but I do believe Bevell is telling the truth and I think the matchup vs the Texans is a smash spot. It was last week for Rashaad Penny. The other guy I like here is Marvin Jones – $4900 who has some history with interim HC Bevell from their years in Detroit. I expect Jones be to acting as WR1 in a juicy matchup against CB King who has not been good. Jones should not be carrying any sort of ownership, so I am interested for sure.

For a run back, the play is Brandin Cooks – $5800 who drew 11 targets against Seattle with Davis Mills at QB and hauled in 8 for over 100 yards. Last time Cooks played the Jaguars he had 5 grabs for 132 yards. Cooks continues to have a healthy target share at 27% and the Jaguars are not good on defense, which isn’t magically going to change with Urban Meyer gone. Nico Collins – $3500 seems like a decent enough punt as he has been getting more and more reps. He has yet to see the endzone this season so maybe he is due. Also, with everyone flocking toward James Robinson, I could see Royce Freeman – $4500 being sneaky here. Sir Rexington Burkhead was injured last week. Now he did get in a limited practice on Friday, so he might play, but after Rex went down, Freeman came in and had 17 total touches including 8 targets in the passing game. Something to think about against a bad defense.

Others in my RB Pool

Joe Mixon – $7200

Mixon was dealing with an illness last week and therefore lost touches, snaps, targets and routes to Perine. That being said, he was still involved and as a general rule is low owned. The Bengals have a perceived tough matchup vs the Broncos this week. I like a low owned Mixon and he always has 2 TD potential.

James Conner – $6900 / Chase Edmonds – $5100

As of this writing, Conner is questionable with an ankle, but he did get in a limited practice on Friday. Edmonds might come off IR this weekend with his ankle injury, and he got in some more work this week too. So both are now expected to play vs. the Lions, who are terrible vs the run. If Edmonds were not a threat, then Conner would be incredibly chalky in this spot, but the possibility of the Cardinals, who are minus DHop, running the Lions into the ground should not be ignored.

Aaron Jones – $6600

Since coming back from injury, GB has eased Jones back into the role he had before getting hurt. The play of Dillon has certainly helped GB spell Jones, especially last week as GB was up so much early that they proceeded to just handoff to Dillon and keep Jones safe. Now that exact same scenario is in play this Sunday, but the chance that this is a slow, plodding game, especially from Baltimore’s side with no Lamar, is there. I could see a scenario where GB leans on their ground game, and Jones finds the endzone a few times. What I do like is the ownership here as there is a narrative out there that Jones is now the RB2, which he isn’t, so not many will go here. All that being said, I don’t know how much of a priority I am going to make this play, as Jones’s ceiling could be limited due to the presence of Dillon, and the absurdly good matchup Adams finds himself in this week (see below).

Michael Carter – $4700

While Carter has had better weeks without Wilson starting, the price is right for one of the better young backs in the league. Not a huge priority, but he will be in my player pool against the Dolphins.

Other Potential One – Offs

As a reminder, what we are looking for are guys who are in position to have potential ceiling games, and hopefully we can identify those who are low owned.

Davante Adams – $8900

There’s like no one left in the Baltimore secondary. The remaining secondary features guys like

• Averett – ranks in the top 10 among all corners in most receptions and receiving yards allowed.
• Westry – an undrafted free agent who made his 2nd career start last week. Hasn’t been good thus far.
• Young – allowing a 73% catch rate.

Adams moves all over the formation, so he’ll likely get matchups against all of these no talent ass clowns. Adams also has a 32% target share and has gone over 100 yards in 3 straight games.

Kyler Murray – $7900

You can obviously stack Kyler with someone, but what I am looking for here is for Kyler to have multiple rushing scores vs a team who can’t stop the run. Conner got banged up on Monday night and Chase Edmonds is coming off IR. A Kyler “rushing day” is in play. Can’t you see a play like this happening vs Detroit?

Ja’Marr Chase – $7100 / Tee Higgins – $6500

Last Sunday when Chase caught his second TD of the game, after having his first one wiped off the board cuz of the bogus catch rule, I was ready to start obsessively sending him love letters. He’s a star in the making who shook off a dropped 70 yard TD pass 2 weeks ago as well as an overturned TD to come back and catch 2 last week. He won’t be priced this low for long, nor will he be low owned because of a perceived tough matchup vs Denver. If ownership is up this week, then I’m a little less likely to try to get to him, but he’s approaching “Can’t be Ignored” territory. Tee Higgins will likely be lower owned even though last week was his 3rd straight game going over 100 yards. Not sure I would go both in this matchup, but Bengals will throw it to one of these two.

DeVonta Smith – $6100

WFT has given up the 6th most fantasy points per game to outside WRs this year and that is where Smith lives. He has a 24% target share since the Zach Ertz trade and if Watkins doesn’t clear the Covid list, then that could go up. CBs Fuller and Jackson have combined for a 64% catch rate allowed over the past month.

TE

Same as last week, I think you need to pay up. If you play a Huntley, Jimmy G, Tua, or Big Ben then it makes sense to add Andrews – $ , Kittle – $7300, Gesicki – $5000, or Freiermuth – $4500 , but the bottom guys are tough to trust to get to a ceiling. I won’t make the same mistake I made with Kittle last week, so I will at least include him in my player pool. As an aside, Kittle posted back-to-back 37+ fantasy point weeks; that hasn’t happened since….ever. First time it’s ever happened. If you are going to pay down, then I would go down to Brevin Jordan…just know that his ceiling is likely 12 fantasy points and that his floor is zero fantasy points.

DST

Where I’m at

My 2 favorite game stacks are SF v ATL and Houston v Jacksonville.

DJ and/or Adams are a priority for me at WR.

Pay up at TE or stack your TE with the QB.

Put a gun to my head, I guess I like the Packers on defense.

I will be flying on Sunday morning, so I’m hoping the majority of the Covid nonsense is in the rearview mirror this week. Also, I’ll probably be shitty with my updates on Sunday morning, but I will do my best. Good luck!