Hey all and welcome to Week One!!! This has been one of the longest summers I can remember as it relates to fantasy football. I started my research much earlier than I ever have, which was last March. It’s felt like I’ve been plodding along at the slowest pace of Oregon Trail 

(I just showed my age) but have finally reached my destination well before winter has arrived.

Unfortunately I’m going to have to do things a little differently on DFO this NFL season. With GridIronHeroics basically defunct after a mutiny, I have had to move on to Gridiron Experts. Yep, these fantasy football folks are quite creative with names. In any event, the new guys pay me well and have supported my work throughout the summer. They do ask, however, that I don’t repeat my article on their website on any other platform. So for those of you who want to check out my DFS GPP specific thoughts and ownership, please head over there. It isn’t necessary though, I get paid regardless of how many views I get.

For us though, it’s way less rules and a little more fun at DFO, so let’s take a look at the Week One set of games for Sunday!

Arizona @ Washington

We should expect a lot of body language and scores like this in Arizona during the 2023 season:

• Gear up your Commanders’ defense, except in DFS where they’re going to be chalky. Is it possible that the Commanders end up being the best DST on the slate? Sure. But defense scoring is random. Who knew the Lions would pick-6 Mahomes the other night? Just avoid the chalky DSTs and hope that any of the other 25 teams can outscore the Commanders.
• Terry McLaurin may or may not suit up. If he doesn’t, then Jahan Dotson becomes a popular play.
• The Commanders running the Cardinals into the ground is a likely scenario. Brian Robinson’s ownership numbers are on the rise whereas Antonio Gibson likely comes in with lower ownership.
• People might know who Michael Wilson is after this week.

Cincinnati @ Cleveland

• It seems much of the fantasy community thinks this game could be high scoring. I don’t know about that. Burrow doesn’t have great numbers historically against the Browns. Also, divisional games can be tough, especially between two teams with aspirations of a Super Bowl appearance. Ja’Marr Chase should be one of the higher owned players in DFS this weekend.
• I’m big on the Browns defense this year, and they’re one of my pivots off the chalky Commanders.
• Nick Chubb looks to have low ownership this week. He’s basically the only RB in town with Kareem Hunt no longer here.

Jacksonville @ Indianapolis

• Christian Kirk looks to be highly owned this week. I’m more interested in the Jaguar perimeter receivers, Zay Jones and Calvin Ridley, who are going up against subpar CBs.
• Deon Jackson is carrying some ownership on the Colts side. I’d be careful as HC Shane Steichen has openly said this will be a committee with Zach Moss and Evan Hull in the mix.
• I like Lawrence this year a lot, but not sure this is a GPP winning situation for him. I’ll be surprised if the Jags don’t win this handedly, which would mean that Lawrence wouldn’t have to keep throwing.
• I’m leery of Travis Etienne. Tank Bigsby, D’Ernest Johnson and JaMycal Hasty will all have roles.

Tennessee @ New Orleans

• The more this game makes it on RedZone this Sunday, the more upset I’m going to get.
• Jamaal Williams is likely going to be the highest owned RB on Sunday. It makes sense. However, this offensive line is not the same one that Williams ran behind last year, and the Titans are a pass funnel defense.
• Derek Carr and his deep threats in Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed are interesting to me here. I probably won’t stack this scenario, but not many are going to own Shaheed this weekend.
• Derek Henry ain’t done yet. He might breakdown at some point this season, but I doubt it happens in Week One.

Tampa Bay @ Minnesota

• What’s more shocking? The Chiefs losing to Detroit, or Baker Mayfield throwing for 300 and 3 on Sunday? There is no respect coming the Bucs way, and for good reason, but no one is going to own Baker and 2 of his pass catchers in DFS. The Vikings defense is not good and neither are the Bucs; I do believe this one has sneaky shootout potential. Once the Vikings are up 24 – 0, the Bucs will have no choice but to start airing it out.
• Rachaad White is carrying some ownership this weekend. Pass.
• Justin Jefferson could be the highest owned WR on Sunday.

Carolina @ Atlanta

• Do people even know this game is happening this week?

San Francisco @ Pittsburgh

• Another one that I think has sneaky shootout potential. The Steelers are going to be better than people think, and the 49ers might not be as good as people think. The Niners have lost some quality starters on their offensive line and in their secondary. Also, if you watched the preseason, and I know it’s the preseason, Kenny Pickett looks GOOD. The start of a solid career could possibly begin this weekend if both teams elect to air it out.
• CMC, Deebo, and Aiyuk are carrying a little ownership. Outside of them, the numbers are not high on anyone else, especially Pickett and George Pickens. It also could be hard for the Steelers to run the ball this week, but they’re likely to try.

Houston @ Baltimore

• The Ravens are going to attempt to be more pass heavy in 2023. That supposedly means less running for Lamar.
• No one on the Texan side of the ball is garnering ownership in DFS. Someone has to do something though, right? Right?? I could see Dameon Pierce, Dalton Schultz, or Nico Collins doing something worthwhile for fantasy purposes.

Las Vegas @ Denver

• I’m big on the Broncos this year, particularly Javonte Williams. The Samaje Perine Truthers can get bent.
• Sean Payton is going to test rookie CB Jakorian Bennett, and I think he’s going to do it with Courtland Sutton and/or Marvin Mims. We need to pay attention to Jerry Jeudy’s status and whether or not he’s going to play.
• Davante Adams is still a beast, I don’t care who is throwing him the rock.
• Was Jakobi Meyers a Raider spy all along?

Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle

• One of Tyler Lockett or DK Metcalf, if not both, is going to have a day. If they both do, then Geno Smith has had a good day as well.
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba looks quite talented, but he had like one good year in college. Dude’s injury prone.

• The Rams backfield is still not to be trusted. I’m staying away from that situation and choosing happiness.
• Tyler Higbee is likely to be a popular DFS choice at TE.

Philadelphia @ New England

• Why are the Eagles only favored by only 3???

• Hurts is gathering ownership but there’s a variety of pairings that are coming with him. Figuring who to start him with could be a pain going forward.
• Careful, the Patriots defense is real good again.
• The Pats offense should also be better. Not good, but better.
• Yes, Zeke Elliott will eat into Rhamondre’s workload.

Green Bay @ Chicago

• Not a ton of ownership is coming in on anyone in this game. Justin Fields has the highest. I’m going to take a couple shots and pair him with DJ Moore and/or Cole Kmet. Moore might see a good amount of Jaire Alexander, which is less than ideal.
• Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon could make some splashes in this game.
• I believe Romeo Doubs will be the true WR1 in this offense, but the Packers are going to try and expose rookie CB Tyrique Stevenson with a deep shot or two. I originally had Christian Watson slated for those attempts, but alas he is OUT. Doubs is dealing with a hamstring issue as well so monitor that.
• I’m skeptical of rookie TEs, but Luke Musgrave is potentially a future star.

Miami @ Los Angeles Chargers

• This should be the most popular stack in DFS as 51 points is the highest total on the slate.
• Tyreek Hill might be the highest owned WR on Sunday, which makes pivoting to Jaylen Waddle appealing.
• Most people are going to stack Justin Herbert with Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler, or Keenan Allen. Get different for GPPs. Use Everett, Palmer, or Johnston.
• The Dolphins defense is better thank you think.

Any updates with be on the Discord tomorrow morning.