Part 4 – Hopefully not for four more fucking years, but unlikely.

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Well, the election was Monday night, but the weekend played right into the hands of the media and the ridiculous, which the media largely generated.

Of course, the conspiracies came out on display. Most notably, the Conservative press alleged that Justin Trudeau made a deal with Maxime Bernier to sink Erin O’Toole’s chances,

and a few Tory-aligned papers decided to rerun a Trudeau-Singh “partnership” cartoon

to try & scare Conservative voters into getting them a majority to avoid a high-tax coalition.

And on teh internets, the truly desperate dredged up another picture of Justin Trudeau in blackface,

which everyone sussed out pretty quickly as having come from the same party as the last time.

As for Justin & Jagmeet, they ran largely positive ads, touting their individual & party strengths. I didn’t get up to the French channels on my TV, so I don’t know what the Bloc got up to. Since I don’t speak lunatic, I didn’t check in on the angry rabble that is the PPC, and the Green Party is pretty much cooked as a political force, so who cares.

Anyway, so let’s see how that turned out. Here’s what it looked like at dissolution,

and here’s what it looks like now.

Dunstan correctly predicted last week that it wouldn’t truly be over Monday night. But, barring a few recounts, it turns out that things are pretty much exactly the same as before. The only difference is that we are $600 million CDN poorer as a result.

What we ended up with is much, much worse. Yet, somehow, also the same.

https://twitter.com/bobbybigwheel/status/1440140072301445129?s=11

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First, the bland news,

Justin Trudeau cruised to another minority government. I realize it’s awkward to say that he “cruised to victory” when it looked for three and a half weeks like he’d made a terrible, terrible mistake in calling th early election. But then the debates showed who Erin O’Toole  actually was, and the ship righted itself. And a “minority government” should mean that he’s at risk of another snap election if legislation is defeated, but the other parties will be gun-shy of doing on-purpose what they’d just said they were against doing. Given his general national support,

he’s got at least two years to act like a king. He gets to stay Prime Minister but, because he will need help to secure 170 votes on all legislation, the real winners of the election are also

Jagmeet Singh,

and Yves-Francois Blanchet.

This is where the electoral system that we have benefits the smaller parties. They won’t get to hold the government hostage for everything, but if they pick & choose their battles, they can get some of their agenda tacked on to bigger projects.

For example, from the NDP’s wish list, one thing you will definitely see in the next two years is the government adding pharmacare drug coverage to basic Canadian medicare. This means that Canadians will get all basic prescriptions covered under their government medical. The other two platforms of the NDP you’ll likely see brought forward are national dental care and a closing of the offshore tax loopholes. This should put the NDP in good stead when the next election is held, although Justin will likely also claim to be the father of those programs because he brought them in. (His father did a similar thing to the NDP between 1972-74 – took them in as a partner, stole all their good ideas as his own, and then won a majority.)

For the Bloc, it will be a wish list of Quebec autonomy. After the $10 national daycare, which is what the Bloc & NDP got from the last budget Justin needed passed, there will probably be increased border protection to prevent prevent large-scale Caribbean immigration and more stringent controls over immigration to the province. Also, an increase in federal transfer payments is likely, to offset higher unemployment rates as a result of pre-COVID immigration to the province from places like Lebanon, Algeria & Haiti. For business, there will be a continuation of the policy of one federal contract out of every four going to Quebec businesses. This will be done to keep the Liberal voters happy, despite it benefitting the Bloc by furthering their argument that they get the best deals for their people.

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Now, the losers – this is where the fun begins.

Erin O’Toole – Conservative leader

Hoo-boy. They’ve already started turning on him.

Canadian Conservatives definitely have that anti-RINO streak that Republicans have mastered. They tried it O’Toole’s way, tacking to the centre to try & win broader support. Now the social conservatives will come after him, claiming that the watered-down message betrayed the true values of the party.

He should be able to survive this, but in the short-term there’s going to be a bloody internecine battle for the soul of the conservative movement.

If he’s unable to fend off this challenge, look forward to a social conservative trying to take control & pledging to woo back disaffected members who turned to the People’s Party. In the end, Justin Trudeau may have done himself a bigger favour by having the election, simply because it will cause his main opposition to start tearing itself apart.

Again.

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Annamie Paul – Green Party

Party bylaws stipulate that because Paul did not become prime minister as a result of Monday’s election, she must face a leadership review within six months. She also got hammered in her quest to win a seat, in a riding she’s tried to win a total of three times now.

This all but guarantees that she’s done. It also doesn’t help that more questions went to former leader Elizabeth May, who won her seat in suburban Victoria, and many of them focused on Paul’s future with the party. “The questions of Annamie’s future are really up to Annamie, and we’ll see how the rest of the evening goes,” she said.

Of course, who would want to stay in charge of a party that can take a simple “thank you tweet” from Paul to her campaign staff and party members,

and turn it into this.

Fucking people.

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Maxime Bernier – People’s Party

On the surface, he’s not going anywhere. He founded the party, and has a Trump-like hold over the zealots.

But his party failed to win a seat, and he got dragged in his hometown riding.

In Canada, politics dies without exposure. There is no need for the media to cover him again for at least two years. That’s more than enough time for his party to wither & die, because who wants to watch the monkey fling poop every day? In the meantime, he will run around the country claiming to be the only “true conservative voice” in Canada.

Tilting at windmills is only interesting for so long. These people will move on to something else, once they realize “party membership” means paying dues and not throwing rocks at doctors trying to save lives at hospitals.

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Well, that’s it for the Canadian election coverage here at [DFO]. I hope you enjoyed following along for the last month, and learned a few things about politics up here in the Great White North. If the border ever reopens, at least you’ll know what our newspapers are yelling politely about.